2023 Baltimore Ravens Betting Preview

The Ravens made the best of bad circumstances last year. For the second year in a row, QB Lamar Jackson missed five games to injury and made clear his displeasure with his contract. But the defense rebounded to its 2019-20 form, finishing No. 3 in scoring (18.5 points per game), and the team clawed its way to a 10-7 record and the playoffs, where they lost on a fourth-quarter 98-yard fumble return. 

This year, their circumstances shouldn’t be nearly as bad. Jackson has signed a lucrative long-term contract, the team has rebuilt the offense and the defense has a steady assemblage of leaders. As long as Jackson stays healthy, the Ravens should be a contender.

In this 2023 Ravens preview, we will look at the team’s offseason odds in various markets, my personal team projections and player projections for guys who might have props in the season-long markets.

I'll also dive into my projections for the 53-man roster with notes on each unit as well as the general manager and coaching staff, a schedule analysis, best- and worst-case scenarios, in-season betting angles and the offseason market that I think is most exploitable as of writing.

For fantasy analysis, check out Ian Hartitz’s excellent 2023 Ravens preview.

Player stats from Pro Football Reference and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted. Historical sports betting data from Sports Odds History and Action Network (via Bet Labs).

2023 Baltimore Ravens offseason odds

Projections as of June 21.

Offensive Line

• Starters: LT Ronnie Stanley, LG Ben Cleveland, C Tyler Linderbaum, RG Kevin Zeitler, RT Morgan Moses
• Backups: OL Patrick Mekari, G John Simpson, OT Daniel Faalele, OL Malaesala Aumavae-Laulu
• IR/PUP: G Andrew Vorhees (knee)
• Borderline: OT David Sharpe
• Notable Turnover: LG Ben Powers (Broncos), OT Ja'Wuan James (free agent), C/G Trystan Colon-Castillo
• Unit Ranking: No. 7

Stanley is a 2016 first-rounder who earned first-team All-Pro recognition in 2019 but has missed 34 games over the past three years (including playoffs) since signing a five-year extension. Cleveland is a 2021 third-rounder who has made four starts in two years. He’s expected to replace Powers in the starting lineup. 

Linderbaum is a 2022 first-rounder who started every game as a rookie and has the makings of a franchise pivot. He needs to improve in pass-blocking (29 pressures allowed) but paves road as a run-blocker (84.2 PFF grade). Zeitler is a dependable contract-year veteran who has started 166 games at RG over the past 11 years (the past two with the Ravens). He’s an above-average pass and run-blocker who has only once had a PFF grade lover than 70. 

Moses is a career RT who has made 130 starts since his 2014 rookie campaign. In his first season with the Ravens, he last year had PFF grades above 75 in both pass and run blocking.

Mekari is a super sub who has made 32 starts for the Ravens since entering the league as an undrafted tackle. Over the past four years he has played literally every position on the line and is the top backup at both OT and C. Last year he had a career-best 80.4 PFF pass-blocking grade and made four starts at LT. 

Simpson had three subpar seasons with the Raiders after they drafted him as a 2020 fourth-rounder, but he has 22 NFL starts and can play both G spots. Faalele is a mountain of a man (6-foot-8 and 380 pounds) who made one spot start at LT last year as a rookie. He is raw but has the potential to develop into a dominant bookend. 

Aumavae-Laulu is a sixth-round rookie tackle who will likely transition to guard and fill in this year for Vorhees, a 2022 first-team All-American G who fell to the seventh round because he tore his ACL at the combine. If the Ravens want another veteran on the line, they could bump Aumavae-Laulu for Sharpe, who has been on the practice squad since 2021.

Defensive Line

• EDGE Starters: Tyus Bowser, Odafe Oweh
• EDGE Backups: David Ojabo, Tavius Robinson, Malik Harrison
• DT Starters: Michael Pierce, Justin Madubuike
• DT Backups: Broderick Washington, Travis Jones, Brent Urban
• Borderline: EDGE Jeremiah Moon, DTs Rayshad Nichols & Angelo Blackson
• Notable Turnover: EDGEs Justin Houston (free agent) & Jason Pierre-Paul (free agent), DT Calais Campbell (Falcons)
• Unit Ranking: No. 16

Bowser is a homegrown second-contract pass rusher with above-average skills but no seasons of more than eight sacks since his 2017 rookie year. He will need to step up to help replace the unsigned Houston and Pierre-Paul — and the Ravens could elect before the season to add a veteran edge… maybe Houston or Pierre-Paul. 

Oweh is a 2021 first-rounder with 40-plus QB pressures in both his seasons as a rotational rusher. In 2023, the team will want him to convert more of those pressures (92 for his career) into sacks (11). 

Ojabo is a 2022 second-rounder who had 11 sacks in his final college season but fell in the draft because of a torn Achilles suffered at his pro day. A strong athlete (4.55-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-4 and 250 pounds), he managed to return to limited action at the end of his rookie campaign and will look to play as a full contributor this year. 

Robinson is a rookie fourth-rounder who jumped from Canada to Mississippi for college and seven sacks as a senior. Harrison is a 2020 third-round offball/edge hybrid who played a career-high 54.2% of his snaps on the line last year and has made 20 starts for the Ravens. If the team doesn’t add a veteran, it will likely use Harrison as a rotational edge once again, although the undrafted Moon could push for a spot after spending his rookie season on the practice squad last year.

Pierce has spent the majority of his career with the Ravens since going undrafted in 2016 (minus sitting out 2020 and playing for the Vikings in 2021). With his size (6-foot and 355 pounds), he’s a near-elite nose-capable runstuffer with above-average pass-rush ability. He should return to his usual form after suffering a season-ending biceps tear in Week 3 last year. Madubuike is a 2020 third-rounder who has underperformed through three seasons. With Campbell gone, the team will need him to step up in his contract year. 

Washington is a 2020 fifth-rounder who played a career-high 501 snaps last year and has improved each season. He could push Madubuike for a starting spot. Jones is a 2022 third-rounder who gave the team 340 snaps of acceptably subpar play as a rookie (19 tackles, five QB pressures). His size (6-foot-4 and 334 pounds) give him A/B-gap flexibility. 

Urban spent the first five years of his career with the Ravens and then prodigal-ed his way with the Titans, Bears and Cowboys for three years before returning to Baltimore in 2022. A solidly above-average run defender for years, Urban has been outright bad the past two seasons (44.3 and 54.8 PFF grades) and could lose his roster spot to the undrafted Nichols (2022 practice squad) or veteran Blackson (eight years of experience) if either of them impresses in camp.

Off-ball Linebackers

• Starters: Roquan Smith, Patrick Queen
• Backups: Trenton Simpson, Kristian Welch
• Borderline: Del'Shawn Phillips
• Notable Turnover: Josh Bynes (free agent)
• Unit Ranking: No. 2

Smith was drafted No. 8 overall in 2018 by the Bears, who got two second-team All-Pro performances from him in 4.5 years before trading him in Week 9 last year to the Ravens, who signed him to a five-year $100M deal and saw him earn first-team All-Pro. Splits can be noisy, but before acquiring Smith the Ravens defense was No. 28 in EPA; after, No. 5 (per RBs Don’t Matter). Offball linebackers don’t matter — but Smith might. 

Queen is a 2020 first-rounder who has never had a PFF grade of 70.0 in either run defense or coverage. If he were better, the team probably wouldn’t have traded for Smith.

Simpson is a third-round rookie with great athleticism (4.43-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-2 and 235 pounds) and recruitment pedigree (five stars). He could push for Queen’s starting job. Welch is an undrafted 2020 LB who has played little defense but 300-plus special teams snaps for the Ravens in each of the past three years. Phillips joined the Ravens last year as a special teams player, but Harrison’s edge/offball versatility and Simpson’s addition could push Phillips off the roster. 

Secondary

• CB Starters: Marlon Humphrey, Rock Ya-Sin, Brandon Stephens
• CB Backups: Damarion Williams, Jalyn Armour-Davis, Kyu Blu Kelly, Trayvon Mullen
• S Starters: Marcus Williams, Kyle Hamilton
• S Backups: Geno Stone, Ar'Darius Washington
• Notable Turnover: CBs Marcus Peters (free agent) & Kyle Fuller (free agent), SS Chuck Clark (Jets)
• Unit Ranking: No. 15

Humphrey is a second-contract three-time Pro Bowler whom the Ravens drafted No. 16 overall in 2017. While he played heavily at RCB last year, he was the team’s primary slot man in 2019-20 and is one of the few corners who can shadow opposing WRs all over the field. 

Ya-Sin is a physical perimeter corner who underwhelmed in his first two seasons but allowed just 5.8 yards per target over the past two years (2021 Colts, 2022 Raiders). On a one-year deal with the Ravens, he’s a sharp offseason acquisition as the replacement for Peters. 

Stephens is a versatile 2021 third-rounder who entered college as a four-star RB and converted to corner in his final two seasons. With his RB-like size (6-foot and 213 pounds), he started 11 games at safety as a rookie but shifted back to corner last year, making two starts on the perimeter and two in the slot. I expect him to be the full-time slot defender this year.

Damarion Williams is a 2022 fourth-rounder who played 225 snaps last year (mainly in the slot) and allowed 8.1 yards per target. He needs to improve in his second season if he hopes to challenge Stepens for slot work. Armour-Davis (like Williams) is a 2022 fourth-rounder who will need to enhance his performance in 2023. On 32 coverage snaps last year, he allowed nine targets, eight receptions and 152 yards receiving. Because Williams and Armour-Davis are uncertain to develop into reliable backups, I project the Ravens to keep two more corners: Kelly and Mullen. 

Kelly is a fifth-round rookie who started four seasons at Stanford and has the potential to play all three CB spots. Mullen is a 2019 second-round reclamation project who has disappointed everywhere he has played (2019-21 Raiders, 2022 Cardinals, 2022 Cowboys), but he has 31 NFL starts.

Marcus Williams is a veteran safety who played as advertised in 2022 in his first year with the Ravens. In every season since his 2017 rookie campaign, Williams has had a PFF grade of no lower than 70. Strong against the run and in coverage, he’s as worthy an inheritor of Ed Reed’s FS mantle as anyone can reasonably be. 

Hamilton went No. 14 in the draft last year, and he lasted that long only because of athletic concerns (4.59-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-4 and 220 pounds). Predictably, the 2021 All-American smashed as a 21-year-old rookie with PFF grades above 80 in coverage and against the run on 600 snaps. By the end of the season, he was even the team’s primary slot corner. He should capably replace Clark at SS, and he and Williams could form a power partnership for years.

Stone is a 2020 seventh-rounder who had career-best marks last year with 450 snaps and a 73.7 PFF coverage grade. He’s a steady No. 3 S. Washington is an undrafted 2021 safety/slot hybrid whose size (5-foot-8 and 178 pounds) is outweighed by his physicality. With Clark’s offseason departure, Washington could jump up to the roster and play on special teams after spending much of the past two years on the practice squad.

Specialists

• Kicker: Justin Tucker
• Punter: Jordan Stout
• Holder: Jordan Stout
• Long Snapper: Nick Moore
• Kick Returner: Devin Duvernay
• Punt Returner: Devin Duvernay

Tucker is the most accurate kicker (90.5% field goal rate) and has the longest kick made (66 yards) in NFL history. For his career, Tucker is an unbelievable 71.3% on attempts from 50-plus yards. A five-time first-team All-Pro, Tucker is a first-ballot Hall-of-Famer. He has been with the Ravens ever since signing with them in 2012 as an undrafted rookie. 

Stout is a 2022 fourth-rounder who last year was No. 6 as a rookie with 45.6% of his punts being downed inside the 20-yard line. He looks like he’ll be a good replacement for innovative longtime P Sam Koch (2006-21 Ravens), who retired last year and now mentors Stout as a consultant for the team. 

Moore joined the team in 2020 and has been the full-time LS since 2021. Duvernay has made the Pro Bowl the past two seasons as a returner. On punts, he has a career average of 13.0 yards per return; on kicks, 25.6. Last year those marks would’ve respectively been good for Nos. 1 and 6.

Baltimore Ravens schedule analysis

Here are my notes on the Ravens’ strength of schedule and a pivotal stretch of games that I think will shape how their season unfolds.

• Strength of Schedule: No. 21
• Home Division: AFC North
• Opposing Division: AFC South, NFC West
• Key Stretch: Weeks 2-8
• Opponents: at CIN, vs. IND, at CLE, at PIT, vs. TEN (neut.), vs. DET, at ARI

The Ravens have a moderate-to-challenging schedule based on the market win totals of their 2023 opponents, primarily because they made the playoffs last year and play in a competitive division. On top of that — despite having only eight (instead of nine) road games — they have a killer stretch in the first half of the year in which they play five-of-seven away with a middle streak of three road games in a row, the final one of which is in London.

The Ravens start the year with a “gimme” at home against the Texans, but they travel to Cincinnati for a Week 2 matchup with the divisional rival Bengals, who have won the AFC North in back-to-back years. 

In Week 3 they host their last home game until late October — a matchup with the Colts, who could be deceptively spicy with rookie QB Anthony Richardson in a “trap game” — and then they have three straight road games. The first two are divisional matchups against the Browns and Steelers, and the third is a UK game against the plucky Titans, after which the Ravens travel home to play the upstart Lions the very next week. 

They close this stretch by heading back out on the road again for a Week 8 matchup with the Cardinals, who could have QB Kyler Murray back after his season-ending knee injury last year.

The Colts, Titans and Cardinals are all theoretically easy matchups, but it’s not hard to imagine how the Ravens could lose a couple of those games because of circumstances. And within this stretch they face all three divisional opponents in a four-week span — all on the road. And they play the week after returning from London.

If the Ravens find themselves on the wrong side of variance, they could arrive home for a Week 9 matchup against the playoff Seahawks with a 2-6 record and no relief in sight since they don’t get the bye until Week 13.

In Weeks 2-8, they need to hold serve at home and steal a couple of games on the road — ideally against divisional opponents — to feel confident about their postseason chances and to have a winning record entering the second half of the season. 

2023 worst-case scenario

As a pessimist, I think this is the realistic worst-case scenario for the 2023 Ravens.

• Macdonald’s defense regresses to its league-average underlying metrics.
• Jackson is slow to take to Monken’s offense in the first half of season and then misses multiple games in the second half.
• Dobbins and Edwards run with less effectiveness as the team deemphasizes the ground attack.
• Bateman stagnates in his development, and Beckham refuses to accept the new reality of his diminished talent, so he publicly gripes to the media about his usage, the offense and Jackson, which results in the team cutting him in Week 11.
• Flowers plays like a small three-star rookie receiver from Boston College.
• Andrews plays a career-high percentage of his snaps inline and struggles to stand out in his new role.
• Stanley misses 10 games to injury, Cleveland is a poor replacement for Powers and Linderbaum fails to improve as a pass blocker. 
• The no-name defensive line generates minimal QB pressure without Houston and Pierre-Paul.
• Smith can’t compensate for the milquetoast play in front of him.
• Stephens and Hamilton have middling performances in their expanded roles as starters.
• Tucker misses three potential game-winning kicks from 50-plus yards.
• Ravens miss the playoffs at 8-9 but bring back the entire coaching staff so the team can build upon the lessons of 2023.

2023 best-case scenario

As an idealist, I think this is the realistic best-case scenario for the 2023 Ravens.

• Macdonald’s defense finishes No. 6 in scoring as its year-to-year underlying metrics improve.
• Jackson immediately buys what Monken’s selling and has the best passing season of his career.
• Dobbins and Edwards maintain their efficiency as defenses increasingly sell out to stop the pass.
• Bateman marginally progresses, Beckham has his best season since his 2019 campaign with Monken.
• Flowers breaks out with a surprise 1,000-yard performance and finishes top-three in Offensive Rookie of the Year voting.
• Andrews leads all TEs in receiving as the centerpiece of the passing game.
• Stanley stays healthy, Cleveland steps up to his new starting role and Linderbaum becomes a Pro Bowler.
• The defensive line leads an overall unit that finishes top-five in sacks. 
• Smith has a second consecutive first-team All-Pro season.
• Stephens and Hamilton meet expectations as starters.
• Tucker misses only one field goal attempt all year.
• Ravens go 13-3-1 to win the AFC North and No. 2 seed, overpower the Chargers and Bills in the first two rounds of the playoffs, host the AFC Championship and defeat the Bengals in a rock fight, and then — as they did in Super Bowl 47 — beat the 49ers 34-31, thanks to a last-second 49-yard field goal from Tucker, who (as legend has it) tells Harbaugh right before he struts out to attempt the kick, “Get the champagne ready, boss.”

In-season Ravens betting angles

I view the Ravens as a strong “bet on” team that will likely offer the most advantage as underdogs and on the road based on the following trends.

• Jackson as Underdog: 10-2 ATS (61.8% ROI)
• Jackson on Road: 20-12 ATS (23.0% ROI)

Conversely, if there were ever an ideal time to bet against the Ravens, it’s when they’re favored and at home.

• Jackson as Favorite: 23-30 ATS (9.1% ROI for faders)
• Jackson at Home: 13-20 ATS (17.2% for faders)

Finally, ask yourself this question: Does Harbaugh seem like the kind of coach who will regularly have his team ready to start the year?

• Harbaugh in Week 1: 11-4 ATS (45.1% ROI)
• Harbaugh in Week 1: 11-4 ML (18.0% ROI)

Affirmative.

Data from Action Network, includes playoffs.

Offseason Ravens betting market to Exploit

We’re in longshot territory with the Ravens, but the odds to win the Super Bowl, AFC and AFC North aren’t quite as good as I’d want, so I’m looking to the season-long player prop market.

Lamar Jackson Under 3,500.5 Yards Passing (-115) (Caesars)

I’m a simple, man. 

If you let me bet at reasonable odds against something that has never happened before, I’ll probably do it.

Jackson has never passed for more than 3,500.5 yards.

His career high is 3,127 yards, which he hit in his 2019 MVP campaign.

So, in a certain perspective, if you bet the over, then you’re betting on Jackson to play better than he did when he got every single MVP vote four years ago. 

I know it’s not that straightforward, since we’re expecting the Ravens to lean into the passing game more than they ever have in the Jackson era.

And in fact, I am projecting him for a career-best 3,275.7 yards passing.

But the bounds of my imagination are only so expansive.

Don’t interpret this under-bet as a sign that I think Jackson will have a bad season. I don’t.

But there are several ways for the under to hit. Jackson could miss a couple of games. He could sit out Week 18 if the Ravens have nothing to play for in terms of playoff seeding. And the offense might not feature the pass as much as we expect.

The under tends to be sharp in the season-long player prop market, and I like this one at Caesars, especially considering that Jackson’s consensus line is 3,400.5.

You can tail the under and get your first bet on Caesars of up to $1,250 completely on the house when you create and account and sign up below!

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