2023 Carolina Panthers Betting Preview

Last year the Carolina Panthers entered their third season under HC Matt Rhule with the imperative to improve upon three straight five-win campaigns.

Despite rolling with QB Baker Mayfield to open the season — the team’s fourth Week 1 QB in four years — the Panthers did advance to seven wins, but only after Rhule was terminated following a 1-4 start. 

In the offseason, GM Scott Fitterer hired HC Frank Reich and selected QB Bryce Young with the No. 1 pick after trading two first- and two second-rounders and franchise WR D.J. Moore for the right to choose whatever player he wanted at the top of the draft.

With Reich and Young as cornerstones, Fitterer begins the arduous process of rebuilding the organization in 2023.

This year, the Panthers would like to have a winning record. They would love to make the playoffs and win the weak NFC South. But more than anything they need to leave the season knowing that Reich and Young are the foundational pieces they hope they are.

In this 2023 Panthers preview we will look at the team’s offseason odds in various markets, my personal team projections and player projections for guys who might have props in the season-long markets.

I'll also dive into my projections for the 53-man roster with notes on each unit as well as the general manager and coaching staff, a schedule analysis, best- and worst-case scenarios, in-season betting angles and the offseason market that I think is most exploitable as of writing.

For fantasy analysis, check out Ian Hartitz’s excellent 2023 Panthers preview.

Player stats from Pro Football Reference and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted. Historical sports betting data from Sports Odds History and Action Network (via Bet Labs).

2023 offseason odds

Projections as of Aug. 15.

Offensive Line

• Starters: LT Ikem Ekwonu, LG Brady Christensen, C Bradley Bozeman, RG Cade Mays, RT Taylor Moton
• Backups: T/G Cameron Erving, OL Justin McCray, OG Chandler Zavala, OG Michael Jordan 
• Injured: RG Austin Corbett (knee)
• Notable Turnover: C Pat Elflein (Cardinals)
• Unit Ranking: No. 21

Ekwonu is an All-American 2022 first-rounder who started all 17 games at LT as a rookie. Solid in both phases, Ekwonu has All-Pro upside if he can build upon his first-year performance (65.3 PFF grade). Christensen is a 2021 third-rounder who made six total starts at LT, RT and RG as a rookie before settling in at LG last season.

He’s an above-average pass protector (two sacks allowed in 2022) but subpar run blocker (PFF grades of 53.3 and 56.2 over the past two years). Bozeman signed a three-year contract with the Panthers last offseason after four years with the Ravens. A guard for his first three seasons, Bozeman transitioned in 2021 to the pivot, where he has been an ordinary-at-worst player.

Mays is a 2022 sixth-rounder who briefly filled in at RG last year when Corbett suffered an ACL tear in Week 18. Despite entering college as a five-star recruit and starting for four years in the SEC (2018-19 Georgia, 2020-21 Tennessee), Mays is more of an NFL spot contributor than long-term injury fill-in. He has valuable experience at all five OL positions but will face competition to replace Corbett, who I expect to start the year on the sideline, although he can’t return to the starting lineup soon enough.

Capable in both phases, Corbett signed with the Panthers last year and was immediately one of the team’s best and most consistent OLs after playing for position coach James Campen on the 2019 Browns and winning a Super Bowl with the 2021 Rams.

Moton is a 2017 second-rounder who has started all 82 games for the Panthers over the past five years, almost exclusively at RT. While he has no Pro Bowl accolades, Moton is a stonewall pass protector (only 14 sacks allowed in career) and sufficient run blocker (only one season with a PFF grade below 60).

Erving is a 31-year-old former first-rounder who joined the team two years ago. He has 56 NFL starts to his name and experience at every OL position, and he opened the 2021 campaign as the team’s Week 1 LT — but he has never had a PFF grade above 58, and last year he was used regularly but only as a jumbo inline TE in six-OL sets (76 snaps).

McCray is essentially another version of Erving: He’s a 31-year-old journeyman with the ability to play everywhere along the OL… but he’s a notably subpar player.

Luckily for him, he’s reuniting with OL coach James Campen, whom he played for on the 2017-18 Packers, 2019 Browns and 2021 Texans. It wouldn’t be a shock if McCray beat out Mays for the RG job while Corbett is out, and the same is probably true for Zavala (24-year-old fourth-round rookie with four years as a starter) and Jordan (25-year-old veteran with 29 starts for the 2019-20 Bengals and 2021-22 Panthers but terrible play overall).

Defensive Line

• EDGE Starters: Brian Burns, Yetur Gross-Matos
• EDGE Backups: Justin Houston, Marquis Haynes, D.J. Johnson
• DT Starters: Derrick Brown, Shy Tuttle
• DT Backups: Henry Anderson, Marquan McCall, DeShawn Williams
• Borderline: EDGE Amaré Barno
• Notable Turnover: DTs Matt Ioannidis (free agent) and Bravvion Roy (Bears)
• Unit Ranking: No. 25

Burns is a 2019 first-rounder who has two Pro Bowls and 30.5 sacks over the past three seasons. He’s a minus in run defense but a massive plus in pass rush. Gross-Matos is a 2020 second-rounder yet to take the next step. Last year he had a career-high 847 snaps and a career-low 51.2 PFF grade.

Houston is a 34-year-old gun for hire who just signed with the Panthers in August. Long gone are the 2012-15 halcyon days of four Pro Bowls, but the 2014 first-team All-Pro and league sack leader still can get after QBs as a situational pass rusher (eight-plus sacks in five of the past six seasons).

Haynes is a 2018 fourth-rounder who has never had more than five sacks and is a net negative in run defense because of his size (6-foot-2 and 235 pounds).

Johnson is a 24-year-old four-star third-round rookie power rusher with a great athletic profile (4.49-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-4 and 260 pounds) but little production (nine sacks in six years). An EDGE-to-TE-to-EDGE convert, he’s a bit of a project, so the team might decide to keep a sixth EDGE in Barno, a 2022 sixth-rounder who played a forgettable 51 snaps last year. 

Brown is a 2020 first-rounder who was mediocre in his first two seasons but excellent last year (40 pressures, 67 tackles). With his size (6-foot-5 and 326 pounds), he has the versatility to line up anywhere on the defensive interior from nose to over tackle.

Tuttle is a 27-year-old veteran who joined the Panthers this offseason after four years with the Saints. He adds little as a pass rusher (four sacks for career) but has never had a PFF run defense grade below 65.

Anderson is a 32-year-old journeyman who joined the team last year. He has the size (6-foot-6 and 294 pounds) to play inside as a traditional B-gapper but the athleticism (4.97-second 40-yard dash) to flex out to the edge. He had just five pressures on 96 pass rushes last year but is a steady run defender.

McCall is a 2022 UDFA nose who underwhelmed last year (56.8 PFF grade) but has the requisite size (6-foot-3 and 345 pounds) to man the middle of Evero’s 3-4 system.

Williams is a 30-year-old veteran who hit career highs last year with 598 snaps, 15 starts and 4.5 sacks on the Broncos and now has followed Evero to the Panthers. He’s a run defense liability but a pass rush asset. 

Off-Ball Linebackers

• Starters: Shaq Thompson, Frankie Luvu
• Backups: Kamu Grugier-Hill, Brandon Smith
• Borderline: Deion Jones
• Notable Turnover: Cory Littleton (Texans) and Damien Wilson (free agent)
• Unit Ranking: No. 6

Thompson is a 29-year-old Panthers lifer who has been starting for the organization since his 2015 rookie season. He’s an inconsistent cover man and modest blitzer but a bona fide run thumper with a career-high 135 tackles last year.

Luvu is a 26-year-old veteran who joined the Panthers in 2021 after three seasons with the Jets. In his two years in Carolina, he has proven himself to be an ace run defender (90.1 PFF grade in 2022) and strong pass rusher (seven sacks last year) with the ability to flex from the box to edge. That said, Luvu — like Thompson — is weak in coverage.

Grugier-Hill is a 29-year-old journeyman now on his fifth team since 2019. He made 20 starts for the Texans over the past two years, but he’s far from even a league-average backup in run defense and coverage. Smith is a 2022 fourth-rounder who played poorly on defense (28.3 PFF grade) but solidly on special teams (78.0) as a rookie.

Jones is a 2016 second-round reclamation project who produced in his first half decade (one Pro Bowl) but underperformed massively for the Falcons (34.6 PFF grade) and Browns (48.3) over the past two years. He’s probably better than Grugier-Hill and Smith, but he offers nothing on special teams and has no guaranteed money in his deal, so he’s not a lock to make the team.

Secondary

• CB Starters: Jaycee Horn, Donte Jackson, Jeremy Chinn
• CB Backups: C.J. Henderson, Keith Taylor
• S Starters: Vonn Bell, Xavier Woods
• S Backups: Eric Rowe, Sam Franklin, Jammie Robinson
• Borderline: CB Stantley Thomas-Oliver
• Notable Turnover: S/CB Juston Burris (retired), SS Myles Hartsfield (49ers)
• Unit Ranking: No. 20

Horn is a 2021 first-rounder who missed most of his rookie season with a fractured foot but played well last year in his return to action. A physical corner with great size (6-foot-1 and 205 pounds), athleticism (4.40-second 40-yard dash) and the ability to shadow WRs into the slot, Horn has allowed just one touchdown and 6.1 yards per target for his career.

Jackson is a 2018 second-rounder who has great speed (4.32-second 40-yard dash), but he is undersized (5-foot-10 and 180 pounds) and has forfeited a career catch rate of 66.8% despite playing almost exclusively as a perimeter corner.

Chinn is a 2020 second-round big-bodied safety (6-foot-3 and 220 pounds) who shifted to slot corner in the second half last year, and given the team’s depth at safety and dearth of slot-capable pass defenders I think it’s likely that he’ll continue to play nickel and maybe even shift to linebacker in base formations (with Luvu pivoting to edge) if the team wants to keep three safeties on the field. Weak against the run but (almost?) acceptable in coverage, Chinn is most valuable through his versatility.

Henderson is a 2020 first-rounder whom the Panthers acquired midseason at a seeming discount in 2021 — but he has underwhelmed with PFF coverage grades of 48.9 and 46.8 over the past two years. Taylor is a 2021 fifth-rounder who has dug his way to a gravely 10.7 yards per target, but he’s a core special teamer.

Thomas-Oliver is a 2020 seventh-rounder who missed most of last season to injury and has played just 94 defensive snaps in his career — but he could make the team because of his special teams ability (five tackles in 2021).   

Bell is a third-contract veteran whose addition to the team this offseason should enable Chinn more easily to stay at nickel. A box safety with the ability to line up deep, in the slot and even occasionally on the perimeter, Bell is an above-average run stopper, pass rusher and coverage defender, despite his lack of Pro Bowl accolades.

Woods joined the Panthers last season after five years with the Cowboys (2017-20) and the Vikings (2021). With 80 career starts, he’s a solid (if unspectacular) veteran who can play adequately across the formation. 

Rowe is a 30-year-old S/CB hybrid who signed a one-year deal with the Panthers in April after eight seasons with the Eagles (2015), Patriots (2016-18) and Dolphins (2019-22). A perimeter corner for the first two years of his career, Rowe shifted to the slot and then safety, where he is a better cover man and can more readily leverage his ability as a blitzer (18 pressures on 68 pass rushes since 2020) and run defender (76.7 PFF grade last year).

Franklin is a 2020 UDFA with 15 special teams tackles over the past two years. Robinson is a four-star fifth-round rookie with a poor physical profile (4.59-second 40-yard dash at 5-foot-11 and 191 pounds) but strong nose for the ball (team-high 183 tackles and five interceptions in final two seasons).

Specialists

• Kicker: Eddy Piñeiro
• Punter: Johnny Hekker
• Holder: Johnny Hekker
• Long Snapper: J.J. Jansen
• Kick Returner: Raheem Blackshear
• Punt Returner: Shi Smith
• Borderline: K Matthew Wright

Piñeiro kicked for ST coordinator Chris Tabor on the 2019 Bears and the 2022 Panthers. He doesn’t have great distance (just five career attempts of 50-plus yards), but his field goal accuracy (95.3% conversion rate) has been strong since he returned to action after spending all of 2020 on IR.

He just signed a two-year deal with $2.25M guaranteed this offseason, so it will be an upset if he doesn’t beat out Wright. That said, we’re talking about kickers, and Wright has sufficient accuracy (87.0%) and a stronger leg (six attempts of 50-plus yards in 2021, his one season as a team’s primary kicker).   

Hekker joined the Panthers last year after 10 seasons with the Rams, where he was a four-time first-team and two-time second-team All-Pro. In 2022, Hekker was No. 7 with 48.5 yards per punt and No. 2 with 48.1% of his punts downed inside the 20-yard line.

On top of that, Hekker has completed 60.9% of his pass attempts on 23 fakes. If a punter from our generation is ever to make the Hall of Fame, it’s probably Hekker.

Jansen has been long snapping for the Panthers since 2009 and made the Pro Bowl in 2013. I guess the team likes him. Blackshear was the team’s primary kick returner as a rookie and impressed with 27.0 yards per return on 19 attempts.

Smith, though, was far less impressive as the primary punt returner: Last year he ranked dead last among qualifying specialists with 6.2 yards per return. Someone might take his job — maybe Blackshear.

Schedule analysis

Here are my notes on the Panthers’ strength of schedule and a pivotal stretch of games that I think will shape how their season unfolds.

• Strength of Schedule: No. 5
• Home Division: NFC South
• Opposing Division: NFC North, AFC South
• Key Stretch: Weeks 1-6
• Opponents: at ATL, vs. NO, at SEA, vs. MIN, at DET, at MIA

The Panthers have the fifth-easiest schedule based on the market win totals of their opponents, but they have a couple challenging stretches. For instance, in Weeks 10-14 they play four-of-five away with one home game against the Cowboys. But it’s the opening six weeks that most have my attention.

In Weeks 1-2, with a rookie QB, they face their two toughest divisional opponents: at Falcons and vs. Saints. They could easily lose both games, which would immediately put them at a real disadvantage to make the playoffs. After that, they play three-of-four away against clearly superior opponents.

In Week 3, they travel to Seattle to face the Seahawks (playoff team, one-day rest advantage). In Week 4, they return home to host the Vikings (playoff team), after which they go to Detroit to take on the Lions (winning record, three-day rest advantage) and then to Miami to close this stretch against the Dolphins (playoff team). They’re underdogs in all six games.

The Panthers could be 0-6 entering the Week 7 bye and facing the possibility of having the No. 1 pick two years in a row.

2023 worst-case scenario

As a pessimist, I think this is the realistic worst-case scenario for the 2023 Panthers.

• HC Frank Reich consistently creates conservative game plans that are intended to help his rookie starter but actually hinder the offense.
• DC Ejiro Evero turns out to be a one-hit wonder.
• QB Bryce Young suffers a string of minor injuries that cumulatively limit his ability to develop as a rookie.
• RB Miles Sanders wears down as a workhorse and proves to be an inefficient pass catcher.
• WR Adam Thielen plays like a retiree, WR D.J. Chark misses half the season with an injury and WR Jonathan Mingo looks like a rookie who never led his college team in receiving.
• TE Hayden Hurst somehow becomes a focal point of the offense and has the most inefficient season of his career while being forced targets. 
• LT Ikem Ekwonu stagnates in his second year, and RG Austin Corbett misses the entire season due to complications with his ACL recovery, which results in an exploitable OL hole.
• EDGE Yetur Gross-Matos continues to swim in a stream of shortcomings, and EDGE Justin Houston drowns in the aquifer of advanced age.
• DT Derrick Brown regresses to his pre-2022 form.
• LBs Shaq Thompson and Frankie Luvu compete to see who is worse in coverage.
• S/CB Jeremy Chinn quickly looks like a small linebacker at nickel and is benched… only to be reinserted into the slot weeks later when his potential replacements all fail.
• SS Vonn Bell is slow to adapt to his new defensive scheme.
• K Eddy Piñeiro is terrible in Weeks 1-4, waived, and replaced by K Matthew Wright, who turns out to be even worse.
• Panthers finish with a league-worst 3-14 record and are unsure about Young as the future of the franchise — but they can’t address the QB position in the draft because the Bears own their 2023 first-rounder… the No. 1 pick in a loaded class.

2023 best-case scenario

As an idealist, I think this is the realistic best-case scenario for the 2023 Panthers.

• HC Frank Reich fits and then adapts the offense to match the ability of his evolving rookie starter. 
• DC Ejiro Evero once again coordinates a top-10 defense.
• QB Bryce Young lives up to the hype of his status as the No. 1 recruit in his high school class and the No. 1 pick in his draft class. 
• RB Miles Sanders has the best season of his career.
• WR Adam Thielen has one final acceptable season as a slot-only contributor, WR D.J. Chark stays healthy and WR Jonathan Mingo is an inconsistent-but-productive big-play deep threat.
• TE Hayden Hurst has a typical Hurst-y season.
• LT Ikem Ekwonu takes a second-year leap, and RG Austin Corbett returns to action after Week 2 and looks like himself right away.
• EDGE Yetur Gross-Matos slightly improves in his fourth season, and EDGE Justin Houston racks up double-digit sacks.
• DT Derrick Brown has a Pro Bowl campaign.
• LBs Shaq Thompson and Frankie Luvu play just well enough in coverage not to be total liabilities. 
• S/CB Jeremy Chinn outmuscles power slot WRs as the team’s full-time nickel corner and steps up as a run defender given his proximity to the line of scrimmage.
• SS Vonn Bell becomes the vocal and emotional leader of a secondary that starts to call itself “Shutdown Central.” 
• K Eddy Piñeiro converts every kick but one all year. 
• Panthers finish 11-6, win the NFC South, beat the Cowboys and Lions in the first two rounds of the playoffs and then lose by 17 points to the Eagles in the NFC Championship.

In-season angles

I view the Panthers as a moderate “bet against” team. It’s not as if the only time I fade them will be Week 1, but it’s notable that HC Frank Reich has been especially poor in season openers.

• Reich in Week 1: 0-4-1 ATS (79.5% ROI for faders)
• Reich in Week 1: 0-4-1 ML (93.7% ROI for faders)

If I am to bet on the Panthers this year, it will likely be when they’re on the road.

• Reich on Road: 22-16-2 ATS (11.7% ROI)
• Reich on Road: 18-21-1 ML (5.5% ROI) 

The Panthers will also have my attention in primetime and off the bye.

• Reich in Primetime: 10-2 ATS (60.7% ROI)
• Reich in Primetime: 8-4 ML (56.2% ROI)
• Reich off Bye: 3-0-1 ATS (72.0% ROI)
• Reich off Bye: 4-0 ML (70.2% ROI)

Data from Action Network, includes playoffs.

Offseason market to exploit

We have a low-hold market on the Panthers to make the playoffs.

• Make Playoffs: +205 (DraftKings)
• Miss Playoffs: -210 (BetMGM)

But I don’t have a strong lean on the Panthers either way. I do, though, have a strong lean on the season-long market for WR Adam Thielen.

Adam Thielen Under 4.5 Touchdowns Receiving (-125, BetMGM) 

I have Thielen projected for 4.2 touchdowns. There are so many ways for the under to hit.

The Panthers could be bad on offense. They could be good on offense but choose to run the ball near the end zone. They could be good on offense and choose to pass near the end zone but opt to throw to players other than Thielen. Plus, Thielen could simply be bad this year.

In each of the past five years, his efficiency has declined.

• 2018: 9.0 yards per target | 2.10 yards per route
• 2019: 8.7 yards per target | 2.08 yards per route
• 2020: 8.6 yards per target | 1.86 yards per route
• 2021: 7.6 yards per target | 1.63 yards per route
• 2022: 6.7 yards per target | 1.08 yards per route

At 33 years old, Thielen could struggle to draw the targets he did with the Vikings. 

Since he became a full-time player in 2016, Thielen has gone over 4.5 touchdowns in six of seven seasons. But the Panthers aren’t the Vikings, and I think that Thielen is no longer Thielen.

You can tail the under on BetMGM, where you can also get up to $1,000 paid back in bonus bets when you sign up for a new account below!

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