2023 Chicago Bears Betting Preview

Last year, the Chicago Bears fell from 6-11 to 3-14 and finished with the NFL’s worst record in GM Ryan Poles’ and HC Matt Eberflus’ first season… and yet 2022 felt significantly better than 2021.

The team was objectively worse, dropping from a point differential of -96 to -137, and the defense (Eberflus’ side of the ball) was atrocious, ranking No. 32 in points allowed after Poles traded away three Pro Bowlers (EDGEs Khalil Mack and Robert Quinn, LB Roquan Smith). 

But the team began the painful process of rebuilding, it saw enough from second-year QB Justin Fields to be encouraged about his potential and development and then this offseason it added pieces to the offense to support Fields while also trading away the No. 1 pick in order to stockpile assets for the future.

As bad as 2022 was, it was kind of a success in that it set the team up for 2023 and beyond.

This year, the Bears hope to see continued progression from Fields, an offense that moves the ball through the air, a defense that is aggressive if not average and a team that makes a push to the postseason — and just maybe wins the NFC North.

In this 2023 Bears preview, we will look at the team’s offseason odds in various markets, my personal team projections and player projections for guys who might have props in the season-long markets

I'll also dive into my projections for the 53-man roster with notes on each unit as well as the general manager and coaching staff, a schedule analysis, best- and worst-case scenarios, in-season betting angles, and the offseason market that I think is most exploitable as of writing.

For fantasy analysis, check out Ian Hartitz’s excellent 2023 Bears preview.

Player stats from Pro Football Reference and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted. Historical sports betting data from Sports Odds History and Action Network (via Bet Labs).

2023 offseason odds

Projections as of Aug. 3.

Offensive Line

• Starters: LT Braxton Jones, LG Teven Jenkins, C Cody Whitehair, RG Nate Davis, RT Darnell Wright
• Backups: T/G Larry Borom, G/C Lucas Patrick, G/T Alex Leatherwood, OG Ja’Tyre Carter
• Notable Turnover: C Sam Mustipher (Ravens), RT Riley Reiff (Patriots), OG Michael Schofield (free agent) 
• Unit Ranking: No. 19

Jones is a 2022 fifth-rounder who started 17 games on the blindside as a rookie and was strong in run blocking and pass protection with his overall 75.4 PFF grade. He has All-Pro potential. Jenkins is a 2021 second-rounder who was miserable at LT as a rookie but more than competent — especially as a run blocker (82.2 PFF grade) — at RG last year.

He’s still a liability in pass blocking, but he’ll shift to LG this season to replace Whitehair, who’s transitioning back to C, where he played primarily for the first half-decade of his career before stepping into the LG role in 2021. At 31 years old, Whitehair has been an average-at-worst player since the Bears drafted him in 2016, but — like Jenkins — he is better on running plays than dropbacks.

Davis joins the Bears this year after four seasons starting with the Titans. He has been an above-average run blocker for a while, but 2022 was his first time to exhibit some competency as a pass blocker (only 14 pressures in 12 games), and he’s at risk of regression in that phase. Wright is a five-star first-round rookie who was a run-game monster in college but a pass-game net neutral.

He exhibited great athleticism at the combine (5.01-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-5 and 333 pounds)… and then he showed up to training camp in the best shape of his life. If he can improve in pass protection, he’ll be a major asset right away.

Borom is a 2021 fifth-rounder who has been almost adequate but certainly unexceptional in his 17 starts for the Bears over the past two seasons (64.7 PFF grade last year, 61.4 the year prior). He is best as an occasional swing tackle, not a half-the-season starter.

Patrick is a Getsy import who joined the Bears last year after six seasons with the Packers, where he started 28 games in 2020-21. He made five starts for the Bears in 2022, can play all three interior spots and knows the offense, but he’s a bad pass blocker (16 pressures on 138 opportunities last year) and an average-at-best run blocker.

Leatherwood is a 24-year-old reclamation projection who entered Alabama as a top-10 five-star recruit, left it as a 2020 Outland Trophy-winning All-American, and entered the NFL as a 2021 first-rounder… and then the Raiders cut him after one year, and the Bears picked him up. He was terrible as a rookie, especially in pass protection (67 pressures on 721 opportunities), but he has been average as a run blocker and was marginally better last year in limited pass snaps (20). He’s a low-risk option for the Bears.

Carter is a 2022 seventh-rounder who played just 31 snaps last year at RG but was an intriguing stonewall in his 19 pass-blocking snaps (zero pressures). 

Defensive Line

• EDGE Starters: Yannick Ngakoue, DeMarcus Walker
• EDGE Backups: Trevis Gipson, Dominique Robinson, Rasheem Green
• DT Starters: Justin Jones, Andrew Billings
• DT Backups: Gervon Dexter, Zacch Pickens
• Borderline: DTs Travis Bell and Bravvion Roy
• Notable Turnover: EDGEs Al-Quadin Muhammad (Colts) and Robert Quinn (free agent), DTs Armon Watts (Steelers), Angelo Blackson (Ravens) and Mike Pennel (free agent)
• Unit Ranking: No. 29

Ngakoue just signed a one-year deal with $10M guaranteed to be the team’s No. 1 pass rusher. While it feels as if he has been in the league forever as a gun for hire — the Bears are his sixth team since 2019 — Ngakoue is still only 28 years old. He has made the Pro Bowl just once, but never has he had fewer than eight sacks in a season. He’s subpar against the run (43.7 PFF grade last year), but he should improve a defense that was No. 32 with only 20 sacks in 2022.

Walker joins the Bears after six years with the Broncos (2017-20), Texans (2021) and Titans (2022). He opened his career as more of a DT and still has interior utility, but he has lined up more at edge over the past two seasons. He is functional in run defense (68.7 PFF grade last year) and pass rush (17.5 sacks since 2019) but is more of a rotational player than a starter.

Gipson is a 2020 fifth-rounder who intrigued in 2021 with seven sacks while playing alongside Quinn and Mack, but as the team’s top pass rusher in 2022 he tallied just three sacks while ignoring all of his run-game responsibilities (39.7 PFF grade). Robinson is a 2022 fifth-rounder who played a lot (549 snaps) and did little (1.5 sacks, 30 tackles) as a rookie. Green joins the team after five years with the Seahawks (2018-21) and Texans (2022). He has 10 sacks over the past two years but has never had a PFF run defense grade of 65.

Jones led the interior DL last year with 746 snaps in his first season with the team and is the lone holdover from the 2022 DT core — but he’s poor in run defense (43.4 PFF grade last year) and mediocre in pass rush (seven sacks in four years as a starter). Billings is a 28-year-old offseason addition who can play in both the A and B gaps. He has just one sack over the past two years but is a plus run defender.

Dexter has elite physical traits (4.88-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-6 and 310 pounds) but raw technique in both phases. Pickens also has good athleticism (4.89-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-4 and 291 pounds) but lacks the strength to anchor as a two-gap defender. Given that the Bears have unproven interior depth, they might choose to keep a fifth DT, which would likely be Bell or Roy.

Bell is a small-school seventh-round rookie with good strength (30 bench-press reps). Roy is a 2020 sixth-rounder whom the Panthers just waived after three seasons of subpar play: He has just one sack and has never had a PFF grade of even 50. 

Off-Ball Linebackers

• Starters: T.J. Edwards, Tremaine Edmunds
• Backups: Jack Sanborn, Noah Sewell, Dylan Cole 
• Notable Turnover: Roquan Smith (Ravens), Nicholas Morrow (Eagles), Joe Thomas (free agent), Matthew Adams (Browns)
• Unit Ranking: No. 13

Edwards signed a three-year deal this offseason with $7.9M guaranteed after four seasons with the Eagles. Strong as a run defender, cover man and blitzer, Edwards is one of the league’s best LBs yet to make a Pro Bowl. Edmunds — a two-time Pro Bowler (2019-20) — got the bigger contract (four years, $50M guaranteed) because of his youth (25), pedigree (2018 first-rounder) and gaudy tackle totals (565 in five years), but Edwards is the more complete player. Only once has Edmunds had a PFF coverage grade above 57.5.

Sanborn is 2022 UDFA who was respectable last year on 330 snaps (64 tackles, 67.8 PFF coverage grade). Sewell is a 21-year-old five-star rookie fifth-rounder who started all three seasons at Oregon. He’s a classic-style LB who’s better against the run than in coverage and a better football player than athlete.

Cole is a terrible defensive player (53.3 PFF grade last year on a career-high 439 snaps), but he’s a longtime special teams ace who’s joining the Bears on a one-year deal after six seasons with the Texans (2017-20) and Titans (2021-22).

Secondary

• CB Starters: Jaylon Johnson, Kyler Gordon, Tyrique Stevenson
• CB Backups: Kindle Vildor, Jaylon Jones, Terell Smith
• S Starters: Eddie Jackson, Jaquan Brisker
• S Backups: Elijah Hicks, Kendall Williamson
• Borderline: CB Josh Blackwell
• Notable Turnover: S DeAndre Houston-Carson (free agent)
• Unit Ranking: No. 26

Johnson is a 2020 second-rounder with league-average perimeter skills. He hasn’t allowed a catch rate of 60% in any season, but he also has only one interception in 39 starts. Gordon is a 2022 second-rounder who had a rough rookie season as the team’s nickel corner (10.3 yards per target).

He supports in the run game (71 tackles last year) but needs to improve in coverage. Stevenson is a four-star second-round rookie with a good athletic profile (4.45-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot and 198 pounds) and the physicality to press WRs, but he had just 11 passes defended in his two seasons as a starter at Miami.

Vildor is a 2020 fifth-rounder who has forfeited 10 touchdowns and captured just one interception in three years. Jones is a 2022 UDFA who struggled to a 48.4 PFF grade last season on 466 snaps. Smith is a fifth-round rookie with a desirable size/speed profile (4.41-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-1 and 204 pounds) and physical playing style, but he can be outmaneuvered by shifty route runners.

All three will likely stew in the cauldron of competition with Blackwell, a 2022 UDFA who was livable in coverage (66.4 PFF grade) and on special teams (61.1) last year.  

Jackson is a 2017 fourth-round center fielder who is inconsistent in coverage (career-high PFF grade of 94.7, career-low PFF grade of 55.8) but routinely good against the run. Brisker is a 2022 second-round boxer who had a promising rookie year (67.0 PFF grade).

Hicks is a 2022 seventh-rounder who allowed three touchdowns and 106 yards on four targets last season. Williamson is a four-star seventh-round rookie who started four years at Stanford and has some corner/safety versatility, but he’s more of a run stopper (197 tackles since 2019) than a cover man (only 10 passes defended in four years).

Specialists

• Kicker: Cairo Santos
• Punter: Trenton Gill
• Holder: Trenton Gill
• Long Snapper: Patrick Scales
• Kick Returner: Velus Jones
• Punt Returner: Velus Jones
• Borderline: K Andre Szmyt, KR Trestan Ebner, PR Dante Pettis

Santos is a 31-year-old veteran who has been accurate (90.6% field goal rate) if not long (6-of-10 converting kicks of 50-plus yards) since joining the Bears in 2020. He’s likely to keep the No. 1 K job, but there’s no guarantee he’ll beat out Szmyt, a rookie UDFA who struggled later in college amidst coaching and holder changes but was an All-American Groza Award winner as a freshman with an 88.2% conversion rate.

Gill is a 2022 seventh-rounder who was No. 23 with 46.0 yards per punt last year and No. 27 with 30.3% of his punts downed inside the 20-yard line. Scales has been long snapping for the Bears since 2015. He was subpar last year (51.5 PFF grade) but had marks above 60 in each of the five previous seasons.

Jones was an All-SEC specialist in 2021, when he averaged 27.3 yards per kick return and 15.1 yards per punt return, and last year — as the team’s primary kick returner — he was No. 3 in the NFL with 27.6 yards per return. I think he’s likely to hold off Ebner for kick return duties and to take Pettis’ punt return duties, which should kick Ebner and Pettis off the roster: If the Bears liked Ebner and Pettis, they wouldn’t have added RBs D'Onta Foreman, Roschon Johnson and Travis Homer and WRs D.J. Moore and Tyler Scott this offseason.

Schedule analysis

Here are my notes on the Bears’ strength of schedule and a pivotal stretch of games that I think will shape how their season unfolds.

• Strength of Schedule: No. 5
• Home Division: NFC North
• Opposing Division: NFC South, AFC West
• Key Stretch: Weeks 8-12
• Opponents: at LAC, at NO, vs. CAR, at DET, at MIN

The Bears have the fifth-easiest schedule based on the market win totals of their opponents, but they don’t have their bye until Week 13, and they have a tough four-of-five away right before it.

In Week 8, they go on the road as big underdogs to face the Chargers on Sunday Night Football, and then they go to New Orleans to play the Saints, once again as underdogs.

They’re favored in Week 10 at home against the Panthers on Thursday Night Football, but playing on four days of rest after back-to-back road games isn’t great, and it’s unlucky for them that they don’t get the Panthers earlier in the year, when rookie QB Bryce Young is likely to be less acclimated to the NFL. And then in Weeks 11-12 they have back-to-back road games as underdogs against divisional opponents in the Lions and Vikings.

There’s a chance the Bears could go on an 0-5 run right before the Week 13 bye. Needless to say, that negative momentum would destroy their motivation for the final month of the season. If they’re to stay competitive for the duration of the campaign, they’ll need to go at least 2-3 in that stretch.

2023 worst-case scenario

As a pessimist, I think this is the realistic worst-case scenario for the 2023 Bears.

• HC Matt Eberflus oversees a bottom-of-the-barrel defense once again.
• OC Luke Getsy fails to translate an offense built for a Hall of Fame pocket passer into one suited for a run-leaning dual threat.
• QB Justin Fields refuses to throw the ball when he could run it and so never develops as a passer.
• RB Khalil Herbert breaks down as a lead back, and no one in the backfield committee behind him is talented enough to play a three-down role.
• WR D.J. Moore doesn’t establish any chemistry with Fields.
• TE Cole Kmet gets too many targets at the expense of Moore and the team’s other WRs. 
• The OL — with the exception of LT Braxton Jones — is a pass blocking travesty.
• EDGE Yannick Ngakoue gets no pass rushing support from the rest of the DL and resultantly has fewer than eight sacks for the first time in his career. 
• The interior DL — except for DT Andrew Billings — is a run defense catastrophe.
• LBs T.J. Edwards and Tremaine Edmunds turn out to be fine… and it still doesn’t matter.
• CB Kyler Gordon doesn’t improve in his second season in the slot and CB Tyrique Stevenson plays like a rookie.
• FS Eddie Jackson has one of his low-grade pass defense campaigns.
• K Cairo Santos loses a camp battle to rookie Andre Szmyt, who has a terrible first-year performance.
• Bears go 5-12, fail to get a top-five pick, fire HC Matt Eberflus and convince Lovie Smith to return to Chicago as the 2024 HC.

2023 best-case scenario

As an idealist, I think this is the realistic best-case scenario for the 2023 Bears.

• HC Matt Eberflus coaxes his defense into the ranks of the respectably subpar. 
• OC Luke Getsy builds an offense that is grounded in the running game but efficient through the air and streamlined enough for a young passer to operate quickly.
• QB Justin Fields wins Offensive Player of the Year, sets the record for most QB rushing yards in a season with 1,500, and finishes with a top-10 AY/A.
• RB Khalil Herbert puts up 1,000 scrimmage yards as an effective No. 2 option in the running game behind Fields.
• WR D.J. Moore has a career-high 1,250 yards from scrimmage thanks to his heavy use on RPOs, screens, designed deep shots and jet sweeps. 
• TE Cole Kmet has 10 touchdowns receiving as a red-zone weapon.
• The OL run blocks magnificently and pass blocks just well enough to be functional within the quick-strike scheme.
• EDGE Yannick Ngakoue has a career-high 14 sacks and helps everyone else on the DL improve as a pass rusher in a rising-tide-lifts-all-boats fashion.
• The interior DL does just enough in run defense to avoid being a catastrophe.
• LBs T.J. Edwards and Tremaine Edmunds lock down the middle of the field in coverage, which makes life easier on the secondary.
• CBs Kyler Gordon and Tyrique Stevenson live up to their Day 2 draft capital.
• FS Eddie Jackson makes his third Pro Bowl.
• K Cairo Santos loses a camp battle to rookie Andre Szmyt, who has a top-five season and hits multiple high-leverage kicks from 50-plus yards.
• Bears go 11-6, win the NFC North, beat the Lions in Chicago on Super Wild Card Weekend and then lose by 18 points to the 49ers in San Francisco in the Divisional Round.

In-season angles

I view the Bears as a slight “bet on” team and specifically an over team.

Once they began disassembling the defense last year — starting in Week 8, when they traded EDGE Robert Quinn to the Eagles — the Bears were 6-2 (45.2% ROI) to the over in their eight games with QB Justin Fields.

With better pass catchers, Fields is likely to improve this season — perhaps significantly — but the defense still projects to be subpar. With a poor DL and secondary, the Bears could offer little resistance against offenses that lean into the passing game, which could trigger shootouts. In such contests, I’ll be inclined to take the over.

If I were to bet the under in a Bears game, I’d probably do so when they’re favored and facing an offense that isn’t built to exploit their pass defense deficiencies.

Data from Action Network, includes playoffs.

Offseason market to exploit

I don’t like the futures markets for the team. I’m not willing to bet that the Bears win the Super Bowl or NFC, and I don’t see enough value in them to win the NFC North.

We do have synthetically low-hold markets for win totals and to make/miss the playoffs.

• Over 8.5 Wins: -122 (FanDuel)
• Under 8.5 Wins: +115 (PointsBet)
• Make Playoffs: +175 (Caesars)
• Miss Playoffs: -180 (DraftKings)

Given the minimal juice in these markets, these lines could be good to leverage if you have any conviction on the Bears one way or another.

But I prefer a bet in the player-prop market.

Justin Fields Over 775.5 Yards Rushing (-115, Caesars)

If you really like the idea of Fields crushing as a runner this year, you could get maximal leverage by betting on him to win Offensive Player of the Year (+2800, FanDuel). I prefer that to MVP, which has shorter odds (+2000 consensus) and I think is actually less likely. If Fields sets the record for single-season rushing yards by a QB, he could be live to win Offensive Player of the Year — but I’m highly skeptical that the Bears will win enough games for Fields to garner real consideration as MVP. Their defense is just too bad.

But there’s one thing I’m confident about: Fields will rush for more than 775.5 yards.

I don’t like betting overs in the player prop market, but this line is so egregiously low that I can’t help myself. I’m yet to see Fields with fewer than 900 yards rushing in any reliable projection set.

I have him projected for 960.9, which is massively regressed from the 1,143 yards he had last year in 15 games. Even if the Bears throw the ball at a higher rate this year, Fields is still likely to use his legs heavily.

You can tail the over on Caesars Sportsbook, where you can also get your first bet of up to $1,250 completely on the house when you sign up for a new account below!

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