2023 Denver Broncos Betting Preview

The Denver Broncos entered last season with “Let’s Ride” hopes higher than Mile High Stadium after trading two first- and two second-round picks (and more) for “franchise” QB Russell Wilson.

Those hopes died a quick but painful death as Wilson had the worst campaign of his career and first-year HC Nathaniel Hackett repeatedly proved that he couldn’t hack it (I’m not sorry for the pun) before being fired with two games remaining. 

As if they hadn’t traded away enough of their future, the Broncos went all-in this offseason be sending first-, second- and third-round picks to the Saints for the rights to pseudo-retired HC Sean Payton — but only after Jim Harbaugh decided to return to Michigan, Dan Quinn opted to stay with the Cowboys and DeMeco Ryans accepted the Texans HC job.

This year, the Broncos have diminished expectations. If Payton — the coach who almost certainly wasn’t the team’s first choice — can help Wilson improve to “not terrible,” the season will be a success. If in doing that he can get the Broncos to the playoffs, even better.

In this 2023 Broncos preview, we will look at the team’s offseason odds in various markets, my personal team projections and player projections for guys who might have props in the season-long markets.

I'll also dive into my projections for the 53-man roster with notes on each unit as well as the general manager and coaching staff, a schedule analysis, best- and worst-case scenarios, in-season betting angles and the offseason market that I think is most exploitable as of writing.

For fantasy analysis, check out Ian Hartitz’s excellent 2023 Broncos preview.

Player stats from Pro Football Reference and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted. Historical sports betting data from Sports Odds History and Action Network (via Bet Labs).

2023 offseason odds

Projections as of July 19.

Offensive Line

• Starters: LT Garett Bolles, LG Ben Powers, C Lloyd Cushenberry, RG Quinn Meinerz, RT Mike McGlinchey
• Backups: OT Cam Fleming, G/T Quinn Bailey, G/C Luke Wattenberg, C/G Alex Forsyth
• Borderline: C/G Kyle Fuller, OT Isaiah Prince
• Notable Turnover: RT Billy Turner (Jets), LG Dalton Risner (free agent), C/G Graham Glasgow (Lions), OT Calvin Anderson (Patriots) 
• Unit Ranking: No. 20

Bolles is a 31-year-old franchise blindside tackle who has been a consistently strong but never elite pass protector and run blocker since his 2017 rookie season. Powers is a second-contract import who counterbalanced his run-blocking ineffectiveness with pass-blocking superiority over the past four years with the Ravens. Cushenberry is a 2020 third-rounder who has never had a PFF run-blocking grade above 62.5.

Meinerz is a 2021 third-rounder who has displayed above-average blocking ability in both phases. McGlinchey joins the Broncos after five starting seasons with the 49ers. He’s a steady pass protector and bullying run pusher.

Fleming is a journeyman with 61 starts for his career and 19 for the Broncos since joining the team in 2021. Capable of playing on both sides of the line, he’s an asset as the swing tackle. After Fleming, the Broncos are thin.

Bailey is a 2019 UDFA with 202 subpar snaps and one start for the Broncos since his rookie year. Wattenberg is a 2022 fifth-rounder with a 33.7 PFF grade on limited action (90 snaps) last year. Forsyth is a four-star seventh-round rookie with poor athleticism (20.5-inch vertical, 7-foot-11 broad jumps).

Given the team’s lack of quality depth, offseason additions Fuller and Prince could push for roster spots. Fuller is a 29-year-old journeyman with almost no green on his PFF page, but he at least can play all three interior spots. Prince is a 2019 sixth-rounder who is bad a pass blocking (42 pressures on 410 pass rushes) but competent in run blocking.

Defensive Line

• EDGE Starters: Frank Clark, Randy Gregory
• EDGE Backups: Baron Browning, Jonathon Cooper, Nik Bonitto, Thomas Incoom
• DT Starters: Zach Allen, D.J. Jones
• DT Backups: Mike Purcell, Matt Henningsen, Eyioma Uwazurike
• Borderline: EDGE Aaron Patrick, DT Jonathan Harris
• Notable Turnover: EDGEs Bradley Chubb (Dolphins) and Jacob Martin (Texans), DTs Dre’Mont Jones (Seahawks) and DeShawn Williams (Panthers)
• Unit Ranking: No. 20

Clark joins the Broncos on a one-year deal as a short-term Chubb replacement after eight years with the Seahawks (2015-18) and Chiefs (2019-22). A three-time Pro Bowler, Clark is upper middle class as a pass rusher and penurious as a run defender. Gregory played just six games last year in his first Broncos campaign, and staying on the field has been a career-long issue for him, either due to injury or suspension. With just 18.5 career sacks, the 30-year-old veteran is long on potential but short on production. 

Browning is a 2021 third-rounder who transitioned from box backer to edge defender last year. Although he’s soft against the run because of his size (6-foot-3 and 240 pounds), Browning was an asset against the pass in 2022 (38 pressures in 284 pass rushes). Cooper is a 2021 seventh-rounder with 900 snaps over the past two years.

He’s dependable as a rotational contributor in both phases. Bonitto is a 2022 second-rounder who had a 52.4 PFF grade as a rookie. Incoom is a 24-year-old rookie UDFA who had good production as a senior (11.5 sacks, 56 tackles) and great athleticism at the combine (4.66-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-2 and 262 pounds).

The Broncos signed him to a three-year deal with $200,000 guaranteed, so he’ll probably push Patrick (2020 UDFA special teamer) off the roster, especially since Patrick tore his ACL in Week 6.

Allen joins the Broncos after four years with the Cardinals under DC Vance Joseph. He has interior/edge flexibility and is coming off a career year with 35 pressures and six sacks — although he’s a liability against the run. Jones is a 28-year-old nose-capable veteran who was functional (albeit uninspiring) last year in his first season with the Broncos.

Purcell is a bona fide zero-technique gap clogger thanks to his size (6-foot-2 and 328 pounds). He has been an average-at-worst run defender in his four years with the team.

Henningsen is a 2022 sixth-rounder who lines up primarily over tackle and had a 70.1 PFF run defense grade last year. Uwazurike is a 2022 fourth-rounder with the heft (320 pounds) to line up inside and the length (6-foot-6) to play on the edge.

They will likely compete for the No. 4 interior defender spot. Harris is a 2019 UDFA who has bounced between the Broncos practice squad and active roster since his rookie year. With the addition of Allen — and given that Harris has never had a PFF grade higher than 62.5 — I doubt he’ll open the year with a roster spot.

Off-Ball Linebackers

• Starters: Josey Jewell, Alex Singleton
• Backups: Drew Sanders, Jonas Griffith
• Unit Ranking: No. 19

Jewell is a 2018 fourth-rounder who has missed 19 games over the past two years but has been an every-week starter for the Broncos when healthy since 2020. He’s a plus player against the run, on the pass rush, and in coverage, and has had PFF grades above 68 in every year since his second season.

Singleton is a 29-year-old veteran who played the first part of his career in the CFL, where he was the 2017 Most Outstanding Defensive Player and a two-time All-Star before jumping to the NFL in 2019 and starting 19 games for the Eagles in 2020-21. He had a career-best 79.1 PFF grade last year in his first season with the Broncos.

Sanders is a 21-year-old five-star third-round rookie who played mainly special teams and minimally edge for two seasons at Alabama before transferring to Arkansas, where he racked up 103 tackles, 9.5 sacks, five passes defended and one interception in 12 games. With his box/edge versatility and athleticism (4.59-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-4 and 236 pounds), he has Pro Bowl potential.

Griffith is a 2020 UDFA with mediocre defensive play but strong special teams contribution for the Broncos over the past two years.

Secondary

• CB Starters: Patrick Surtain, Damarri Mathis, K'Waun Williams
• CB Backups: Riley Moss, Tremon Smith
• S Starters: Justin Simmons, Kareem Jackson
• S Backups: J.L. Skinner, Caden Sterns, P.J. Locke
• Borderline: CBs Essang Bassey and Ja’Quan McMillian, S Delarrin Turner-Yell
• Notable Turnover: CB Ronald Darby (free agent) 
• Unit Ranking: No. 2

Surtain is the 2021 No. 9 pick overall and a 2022 first-team All-Pro. A perimeter eliminator with shadow willingness, Surtain held pass catchers to just 6.0 yards per target last year and is active in run support. He’s the primary reason the Broncos secondary is what it is.

Mathis is a 2022 fourth-rounder who stepped up as a rookie with 11 starts. He allowed a 70.8% catch rate last year — a high mark for an outside corner — but he kept everything in front of him and yielded just 6.3 yards per target. Williams is a 32-year-old slot man who was his typical solid self last year in his first season with the Broncos. He has never had a PFF coverage grade below 60.    

Moss is a grit-and-spit third-round rookie who arrived at college without a scholarship and left Iowa a team captain with 40 starts. He has NFL speed (4.45-second 40-yard dash), size (6-foot-1 and 193 pounds), and ball-hawking instincts (11 interceptions, 22 passes defended in college).

Smith is a 27-year-old journeyman who has been a special teams ace for the past three years (2020 Colts, 2021-22 Texans). The additions of Moss and Smith could push Bassey and McMillian off the roster. Bassey is a 2020 UDFA with a high PFF coverage grade of 51.7. McMillian is a 2022 UDFA who didn’t play until Week 18 last year.

Simmons is a 29-year-old Broncos lifer with safety/slot versatility and consistent production in coverage and against the run. Since he shifted to more of a centerfield role in 2019 — when Simmons joined the team — he has one Pro Bowl and three second-team All-Pros.

Jackson is a 35-year-old veteran who played cornerback (perimeter and slot) for the first nine years of his career with the Texans, but for the past four seasons he has played safety for the Broncos. With above-average two-phase skills, Jackson is almost interchangeable with Simmons on the field.

Skinner is a sixth-round rookie with elite size for a box safety (6-foot-4 and 209 pounds). He slipped to Day 3 because of a February pectoral injury, which prevented him from working out before the draft, but he should be ready to play as a rookie. He had 157 tackles and six interceptions in his final two college seasons. Sterns is a 2021 fifth-rounder who has played 585 snaps over the past two years and can fill in at both safety spots adequately.

Locke is a 2019 UDFA who has been a core special teamer for the Broncos for the past three years. Turner-Yell is a 2022 fifth-rounder who had eight special teams tackles last season, but he also played just one defensive snap.

Specialists

• Kicker: Elliott Fry
• Punter: Riley Dixon
• Holder: Riley Dixon
• Long Snapper: Mitchell Fraboni
• Kick Returner: Marvin Mims
• Punt Returner: Marvin Mims
• Borderline: KR/PR Montrell Washington
• Notable Turnover: K Brandon McManus (Jaguars), P Corliss Waitman (Patriots) and LS Jacob Bobenmoyer (Raiders)

Fry is a 2017 UDFA who has been on 10 different NFL teams but played only three games. Since college, the most action he has seen is in the AAF, where he went 14-of-14 kicking for the league-best Apollos in 2019. He’s a shaky-at-best replacement for McManus, who had been with the team since 2014.

Dixon returns to Denver after playing the first two seasons of his career there (2016-17). Last year he had a career-best 48.4 yards per punt for the Rams but was No. 33 with 26.8% of his punts downed inside the 20-yard line. Fraboni is a 2018 UDFA who has played only four NFL games — but he did rack up a 91.5 PFF grade last year as a midseason injury fill-in for the now-departed Bobenmoyer. We’ll see.

Washington is a mediocre return man (8.5 yards per punt return, 18.9 yards per kick return last year). I’m not sure if Mims will replace him — but someone probably will — and why not Mims? If he’s not starting at WR, the team will want to use the second-rounder somehow, and he has experience from college as a return specialist.

Schedule analysis

Here are my notes on the Broncos’ strength of schedule and a pivotal stretch of games that I think will shape how their season unfolds.

• Strength of Schedule: No. 21
• Home Division: AFC West
• Opposing Division: AFC East, NFC North
• Key Stretch: Weeks 10-15
• Opponents: at BUF, vs. MIN, vs. CLE, at HOU, at LAC, at DET

The Broncos have a moderate schedule based on the market win totals of their 2023 opponents, but there are a couple of tough stretches. For instance, playing three games against the Jets and Chiefs (twice) in a four-week span right before the Week 9 bye will be a challenge.

And after the bye they travel to Buffalo as big underdogs for a Monday Night Football game against the Bills. For Week 11, they return home on a one-day rest advantage to host the Vikings on Sunday Night Football.

They stay home in Week 12 and host the Browns — and then they have three consecutive road games (at Texans, at Chargers, at Lions), not one of which is close to any of the others, so they can’t have a “we’re playing two games on the East Coast, and we’ll stay the week in Virginia” type of situation. That last game against the Lions should specifically be tough given all the preceding travel. The Broncos are one of just two teams to have three games in a row on the road this year.

But they’re favored at home against the Vikings and Browns, and the Texans and Chargers have minimal home-field advantages. If the Broncos are the kind of team to make a push to the playoffs, they’ll go at least 3-3 in this stretch and maybe 4-2. If, however, they can’t break even in Weeks 10-15, their postseason hopes will be doubtful — and Wilson might not be the starting QB for the final stretch of the year. 

2023 worst-case scenario

As a pessimist, I think this is the realistic worst-case scenario for the 2023 Broncos.

• HC Sean Payton can’t get his QB to buy into the offense or play within its structure, but he continues to start him for the supermajority of the season.
• DC Vance Joseph fails to match former DC Ejiro Evero as a schemer and play-caller.
• QB Russell Wilson continues to play like a shadow of his former self, and then reports surface in late December — shortly after he has been benched — that he and Ciara have separated.
• QB Jarrett Stidham replaces Wilson for the final three games of the season and looks like a guy who’s not a starter. 
• RB Javonte Williams misses the first third of the season because of his knee injury and is highly inefficient when he returns to action, and RB Samaje Perine looks like a past-his-prime plodder when asked to be the lead back for multiple games in a row.
• WR Jerry Jeudy openly feuds with Wilson on the sideline in a Week 8 blowout loss to the Chiefs, WR Courtland Sutton continues on his downward efficiency slope, WR TIm Patrick is sapped of his explosiveness after missing last season and WR Marvin Mims sees almost no action as a rookie.
• TE Greg Dulcich is reduced to a rotational player and fails to distinguish himself from TEs Chris Manhertz and Adam Trautman.
• The OL suffers injuries and its lack of depth is exploited.
• EDGEs Frank Clark and Randy Gregory form one of the league’s most underperforming pass-rush duos.
• DT Zach Allen doesn’t get enough help in replacing the production of departed starters DTs Dre’Mont Jones and DeShawn Williams.
• LB Josey Jewell misses half the year to injury, and LB Drew Sanders struggles as a rookie to replace him.
• CB Patrick Surtain questions the defensive scheme and playcalling after a Week 15 road loss to the Lions, CB Damarri Mathis plays like a Day 3 pick in his second season and CB K’Waun Williams slows down at the age of 32.
• K Elliott Fry and LS Mitchell Fraboni reveal themselves to be fringe NFL players with a series of crucial special teams mistakes before they both get cut in October.
• Broncos go 5-12, fire DC Vance Joseph and enter the offseason trying to trade Wilson for pennies on the dollar only to realize that they’ll need to trade draft picks along with Wilson to get another team to take his salary.

2023 best-case scenario

As an idealist, I think this is the realistic best-case scenario for the 2023 Broncos.

• HC Sean Payton successfully repurposes the latter-day Brees offense for Wilson.
• DC Vance Joseph can do only so much to limit the talent of his defense.
• QB Russell Wilson has the most efficient season of his career, and Subway puts the “Dangerwich” back on the menu.
• QB Jarrett Stidham plays well in his one game of duty as a spot starter.
• RBs Javonte Williams and Samaje Perine both have 1,000 yards from scrimmage.
• WR Jerry Jeudy has his first 1,000-yard receiving season as Wilson’s new Doug Baldwin, WR Courtland Sutton regains some explosiveness another year removed from his ACL injury and WR Marvin Mims breaks into the starting lineup in camp and pushes WR Tim Patrick down into a rotational role.
• TE Greg Dulcich plays well enough to keep TEs Chris Manhertz and Adam Trautman firmly in backup roles.
• The OL stays healthy, powers the running game and keeps Wilson clean.
• EDGEs Frank Clark and Randy Gregory combine for 20 sacks.
• DT Zach Allen has the best year of his career thanks to his improved circumstances and advanced familiarity with Joseph’s scheme.
• LB Josey Jewell misses only two games to injury, and LB Drew Sanders dominates as a rotational player.
• CB Patrick Surtain gets Defensive Player of the Year hype after his multi-interception showing in a Week 15 road win over the Lions, CB Damarri Mathis repeats his rookie-year performance, and CB K’Waun Williams continues to play like a savvy veteran.
• K Elliott Fry and LS Mitchell Fraboni play well enough to keep their jobs.
• Broncos go 12-5, make the playoffs as the No. 5 seed, go on the road to beat the Jaguars by nine points on Super Wild Card Weekend and then lose to the Chiefs on a last-minute field goal in Kansas City in the Divisional Round a couple weeks before Payton wins his second AP Coach of the Year Award. 

In-season angles

I view the Broncos as a moderate “bet against” team, although I acknowledge that they have a wide range of outcomes, so I could be quick to adjust my prior assumptions on them based on how they perform early in the season.

As of now, I expect Wilson to be a little (but not much) better than he was last year and the defense to be a little (but not much) worse than it was last year, when the Broncos were 11-6 (24.2% ROI) to the under. I project them to be an under team once again.

If I were to bet on the Broncos, it would likely be as underdogs.

• Payton as Underdog: 50-30-2 ATS (22.6% ROI)
• Payton as Underdog Without QB Drew Brees: 10-5 ATS (28.2% ROI)
• Wilson as Underdog: 36-19-2 ATS (27.0% ROI)
• Wilson as Underdog With Broncos: 6-2 ATS (43.2% ROI)  

But I don’t see myself betting on them often this season.

Data from Action Network, includes playoffs.

Offseason market to exploit

A few lines stand out to me when I survey the Broncos futures markets.

First, if you look at the best odds we can find, there’s a synthetic negative-hold win total market between FanDuel and Caesars

• Over 8.5 Wins: +106 (FanDuel)
• Under 8.5 Wins: -105 (Caesars)

That means the books are basically letting us take a shot for free. In fact, they’re paying us a penny to do it.

Second, these are the best odds for the Broncos to win the AFC West, the AFC and the Super Bowl.

• AFC West: +700 (FanDuel)
• AFC: +3000 (FanDuel, BetMGM)
• Super Bowl: +5000 (BetMGM)

I don’t actually like the Broncos to win their division — but if they do beat out the Chiefs and Chargers to win the AFC West doesn’t it stand to reason that they’d have a good chance (and maybe be the frontrunners) to win the AFC and possibly the Super Bowl?

With this in mind, I have two barbelled bets I’m making on the Broncos.

Broncos Under 8.5 Wins (-105, Caesars), Broncos to Win Super Bowl (+5000, BetMGM)

I don’t like the Broncos. I’m skeptical that Wilson will rebound to his pre-2022 form. I’m dubious that Joseph will maximize the talent he has on defense. And I’m uncertain that Payton will have sustained success with a non-Brees passer.

I have them projected for 7.8 wins, so I love the under. Absolutely love it. One of my favorite win total bets this year.

You can tail one of my favorite bets of the year on Caesars Sportsbook, where you can also get your first bet of up to $1,250 completely on the house when you sign up below!

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But I could also be wrong. I know that I’m markedly lower on the Broncos than some other analysts are. I’m aware of their wide range of outcomes. I’m cognizant of the fact that they could be one of the few teams in the league — if everything aligns — with a top-eight QB, coach and defense. 

If they have a season that goes better than I project, they could win the AFC West — and if that happens then they’re probably one of the league’s best teams, in which case their current odds to win the AFC and Super Bowl will seem laughably long.

So I’m taking a “screw it” approach to the long tail of their upside and saying, “Instead of betting them to win the division, I’ll bet them to win everything.”

I feel dirty doing this. And I’ll feel even dirtier when the Broncos win nine games and miss the playoffs. 

If you're high on the Broncos (or simply love the value they offer), you can get them 50/1 to win the Super Bowl on BetMGM, where you can also get your first bet of up to $1,000 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win! Sign up below and start betting today!

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