2023 Detroit Lions Betting Preview

The Detroit Lions started last season 1-6 and then went on an epic run to finish with a winning record and contend for a playoff spot all the way into Week 18. With that strong finish to the season, they jumped up from 3-13-1 to 9-8, from a -142 point differential to +26, and from No. 25 in offensive scoring to No. 5. 

They still had a bottom-five defense (No. 31 in scoring in 2021, No. 28 in 2022), but the organization overall took a massive step forward in HC Dan Campbell’s second season. They gained national interest thanks to their preseason appearance on Hard Knocks, they delighted traditional football fans with their blue-collar attitude, and they appealed to analytics nerds with their intelligent aggressiveness.

The 2022 season was a massive success — and then they spent two 2023 first-round picks on an undersized speed back and off-ball linebacker. On the one hand, that seems like a terrible way to use draft capital. On the other hand, that’s something you do when every other position on your roster has been addressed and you’re ready to compete. This year, the Lions expect to contend for the NFC North — and, with their infectious audaciousness, even the Super Bowl.

In this 2023 Lions preview, we will look at the team’s offseason odds in various markets, my personal team projections and player projections for guys who might have props in the season-long markets. 

I'll also dive into my projections for the 53-man roster with notes on each unit as well as the general manager and coaching staff, a schedule analysis, best- and worst-case scenarios, in-season betting angles and the offseason market that I think is most exploitable as of writing.

For fantasy analysis, check out Ian Hartitz’s excellent 2023 Lions preview.

Player stats from Pro Football Reference and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted. Historical sports betting data from Sports Odds History and Action Network (via Bet Labs).

Detroit Lions 2023 offseason odds

Projections as of June 26.

Offensive Line

• Starters: LT Taylor Decker, LG Jonah Jackson, C Frank Ragnow, RG Halapoulivaati Vaitai, RT Penei Sewell
• Backups: OT Matt Nelson, G/C Graham Glasgow, OL Colby Sorsdal, G Logan Stenberg
• Borderline: T/G Germain Ifedi, G Kayode Awosika
• Notable Turnover: RG Rvan Brown (Seahawks), G Dan Skipper (Free Agent)
• Unit Ranking: No. 1

Decker is an undecorated franchise blindside protector who has been with the Lions for all seven years of his career and has started every game he has played. A strong pass-blocker and above-average run-blocker, Decker is the tenured leader of maybe the NFL’s best OL. 

Jackson is a 2020 third-rounder who started Week 1 as a rookie and made the Pro Bowl in 2021. Ragnow is a homegrown second-contract pivot with 65 starts, two Pro Bowls and PFF run-blocking grades of at least 78 in every year since his 2019 second season. 

Vaitai missed 2022 with a back injury but is expected to return to RG, where he made 25 nondescript starts for the 2020-21 Lions after opening his career with the Eagles (2016-19). Sewell was the No. 7 pick of the 2021 draft and has started 33 games (25 at RT, 8 at LT as an injury fill-in for Decker). He made the Pro Bowl last year and is the likely long-term heir to Decker’s LT throne.

Nelson is an undrafted swing tackle who has been with the Lions since his 2019 rookie season. He has made 12 starts at RT over the past three years but seemingly regressed each campaign and has never had a PFF grade of even 60. He’s at risk of losing his roster spot to Ifedi — a right-side specialist former first-rounder who made 83 combined RT/RG starts for the 2016-19 Seahawks and 2020-21 Bears before transitioning to backup for the 2022 Falcons. 

Glasgow is a 2016 third-rounder who opened his career with the Lions, for whom he made 27 starts at C, 18 at LG and 14 at RG before playing three years with the Broncos. An above-average blocker, he’s an ideal replacement to Brown and Skipper as the team’s top interior backup — and if he has a strong camp he might even push for Vaitai’s starting spot. 

Colby Sorsdal is a small-school fifth-round rookie who started five years at RT but might need to kick inside in the NFL. Stenberg is a 2020 fourth-rounder who did nothing in his first two seasons and then made four subpar RG starts last year (12 QB pressures on 128 opportunities). He could lose his spot to the undrafted third-year Awosika, who made two subpar RG starts for the Lions in 2022 — but his weren’t as bad as Stenberg’s (six pressures on 89 opportunities).

Defensive Line

• EDGE Starters: Aidan Hutchinson, Charles Harris
• EDGE Backups: John Cominsky, Romeo Okwara, Josh Paschal, James Houston, Julian Okwara
• DT Starters: Alim McNeill, Isaiah Buggs
• DT Backups: Brodric Martin, Levi Onwuzurike
• Borderline: DTs Benito Jones & Christian Covington
• Notable Turnover: EDGE Austin Bryant (49ers), DT Michael Brockers (free agent)
• Unit Ranking: No. 21

Hutchinson headlines a deep edge group long on potential. The No. 2 pick of the 2022 draft, he finished No. 2 last year in Defensive Rookie of the Year voting with 9.5 sacks, 52 tackles and three interceptions. 

Harris is a 2017 first-rounder who never lived up to his draft capital for the Dolphins and didn’t get a fifth-year option from the Falcons after they traded for him, but he had a career-high eight sacks with the 2021 Lions in his first year with the team. He played just six games last year because of injury but is an acceptable veteran presence opposite Hutchinson (although he probably is better suited to a rotational role farther down the depth chart). 

Cominsky is a 2019 fourth-rounder who played alongside Harris on the 2020 Falcons as an interior defender. After the Falcons released him in 2022, he caught on with the Lions as a big-bodied edge and gave them a much-needed 554 snaps of league-average play. Romeo Okwara missed most of 2021-22 with a torn Achilles, but he returned to action at the end of last year and has been a fixture of the Lions DL since joining the team in 2018. In his last full campaign (2020), he easily led the team with 61 QB pressures and 10 sacks. 

Paschal is a 2022 second-rounder with near-elite athleticism (4.77-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-3 and 268 pounds). He underwhelmed as a rookie pass rusher and run defender but has the talent to be a plus rotational player. Houston is a 2022 sixth-rounder whose offball size (6-foot-1 and 245 pounds) makes him vulnerable in run defense (56.6 PFF grade) — but he displayed near-elite situational edge rushing skills as a rookie with 17 pressures and eight sacks on just 92 pass snaps. 

Julian Okwara (Romeo’s brother) is an upside 2020 third-rounder who has struggled with year-to-year availability and consistency. He was on IR most of his rookie year, flashed in 2021 (five sacks), and then missed Weeks 13-18 last year after playing poorly (46.7 PFF grade).

McNeill is a 2021 third-rounder who waffles against the run but contributed as a pass rusher (29 pressures) in his second season. Buggs is a 2019 sixth-rounder who is an average-at-worst pass rusher but a libel-inducing run defender. After three years with the Steelers, he joined the Lions last offseason and gave the team a career-high 752 snaps as a warm body. 

Martin is a third-round rookie with the size (6-foot-5 and 337 pounds) to line up at nose and demand double teams. Onwuzurike is a 2021 second-rounder who played poorly as a rookie (43.2 PFF grade) and not at all last year because of a back injury that required surgery. If he’s not ready to open the season, the Lions could put him on PUP and give a roster spot to Jones (309 subpar snaps for the team last year) or Covington (poor play for 2020 Bengals and 2021-22 Chargers, strong play for 2016-18 Texans and 2019 Cowboys).  

Off-Ball Linebackers

• Starters: Jack Campbell, Alex Anzalone
• Backups: Malcolm Rodriguez, Derrick Barnes
• Borderline: Jalen Reeves-Maybin
• Notable Turnover: Chris Board (Patriots)
• Unit Ranking: No. 22

Campbell is the No. 18 pick in the 2023 draft. As a junior, he led the FBS with 143 tackles. As a senior, he was a unanimous first-team All-American and winner of the Butkus Award (for the top LB in college football) and the Campbell Trophy (“Academic Heisman,” for the player with the best combination of academics, community service, and on-field performance). As a prospect, he displayed near-elite athleticism at the combine (4.65-second 40-yard dash, 6.74-second three-cone at 6-foot-5 and 249 pounds). He’s a strong culture fit with All-Pro potential. 

Anzalone is an underperforming second-contract veteran whose poor play since joining the team in 2021 (59.2 PFF grade last year, 35.4 the prior year) is probably why the Lions drafted Campbell.

Rodriguez is a 2022 sixth-rounder who played admirably last year as a rookie (58 tackles on 611 snaps) but is much better as the No. 3 LB. Barnes is a run-thumping 2021 fourth-rounder who can’t cover a casserole. Reeves-Maybin is a 2017 fourth-rounder who gave the Lions five subpar seasons to open his career before going to Houston and endowing the 2022 Texans with the worst season of his career. He’s now back with the Lions, and maybe he’ll make the roster if Barnes is bad in camp or if the team cuts Anzalone to make space for the younger LBs, but I doubt he’ll make the roster.

Secondary

• CB Starters: Cameron Sutton, Emmanuel Moseley, Chauncey Gardner-Johnson
• CB Backups: Jerry Jacobs, Will Harris, Chase Lucas
• S Starters: Tracy Walker, Kerby Joseph
• S Backups: Brian Branch, Ifeatu Melifonwu
• Notable Turnover: CBs Jeffrey Okudah (Falcons), Mike Hughes (Falcons), Amani Oruwariye (Giants) and A.J. Parker (49ers), SS DeShon Elliott (Dolphins)
• Unit Ranking: No. 23

Sutton is the three-year $33M headliner of the team’s rebuilt CB unit. For the first few years of his career, Sutton served as a No. 4 CB with inside/outside utility, but in 2020 he pushed his way into the starting lineup and was the No. 1 perimeter corner for the 2021-22 Steelers. Last year, he held pass catchers to a career-low 50.7% catch rate. 

Moseley went undrafted in 2018, but he out-battled the higher-drafted Ahkello Witherspoon for playing time in 2019-20 and was a full-time starter in 2021-22 before suffering a season-ending ACL tear in Week 5 and leaving the 49ers in free agency. Moseley has a good chance to be active to open the year based on the timing of his injury, and I bet he’ll win the starting job: In his one full season as a starter (2021), he allowed only 6.3 yards per target. 

Gardner-Johnson is a 2019 fourth-rounder whose attitude outpaces his ability. A slot corner for the 2019-21 Saints, he shifted to safety for the 2022 Eagles, so he offers positional versatility, but I expect him to play as a nickel for the Lions. While he’s a strong blitzer (34 pressures on 126 career pass rushes), he has never had a PFF coverage grade of 70. Sutton, Moseley, and Gardner-Johnson are an unquestionable upgrade over last year’s Week 1 starters (Okudah, Oruwariye, and Hughes) — but they might need significant time to establish chemistry. We shouldn’t automatically assume they will be a power trio.

Jacobs is an undrafted corner who has played 1,077 snaps for the Lions since his 2021 rookie year. He was solid with 6.8 yards per target last year and could push for Moseley’s job this year. Harris is a 2019 third-rounder who opened his career as a safety but shifted to slot corner in 2021 and can also play on the perimeter. He has made 27 starts for the Lions over the past two years and had a career-high 66.9 PFF coverage grade in 2022. If the Lions choose to play Gardner-Johnson as more of a traditional safety, Harris will likely man the slot. Chase Lucas is a 2022 seventh-rounder who can play inside and outside.

Walker is a homegrown second-contract safety who can play in the box and deep based on team need. An above-average cover man, he missed most of 2022 with an Achilles tear, but I expect him to be back for Week 1 and to shift to SS as the Elliott replacement to accommodate Joseph, who last year started 13 games at FS after Walker’s injury. 

A 2022 third-rounder, Joseph was a league-average pass defender as a rookie — but he could be pushed into the No. 3 S role if the Lions prefer second-round rookie Branch, who played the “star”/Minkah Fitzpatrick role at Alabama last year and can line up across the formation. Melifonwu is a 2021 third-rounder who has the size (6-foot-3 and 212 pounds) and skill set to play both box safety and perimeter corner.

Specialists

• Kicker: Riley Patterson
• Punter: Jack Fox
• Holder: Jack Fox
• Long Snapper: Jake McQuaide
• Kick Returner: Jahmyr Gibbs
• Punt Returner: Kalif Raymond
• Borderline: K Michael Badgley, LS Scott Daly
• Notable Turnover: KR Justin Jackson

Patterson closed his 2021 rookie season on the Lions as a strong injury fill-in for Austin Seibert, who beat him out in a 2022 camp battle and then was replaced by Badgley after going 1-of-3 in Week 3. Upon being cut, Patterson signed with the Jaguars and had a good year — but then they signed the long-legged Brandon McManus this offseason and traded Patterson back to the Lions, who will have Patterson and Badgley compete in camp. 

While Badgley is the only one of the two with guaranteed money on his contract ($350,000), I doubt the Lions would’ve traded a pick (albeit a conditional 2026 seventh-rounder) to get Patterson in May after signing Badgley in March if they didn’t think Patterson was likely to win the job. Neither one has great distance, but Patterson has easily had more accuracy throughout his career (87.8% vs. 81.7%).

Fox has been with the Lions since 2019 (practice squad) and was a second-team All-Pro in 2020, when he made his NFL debut. He’s No. 2 at his position in salary and has a career average of 49.0 yards per punt. McQuaide missed most of last year with the Cowboys because of a triceps tear, but he has been long snapping in the NFL since 2011 and is a two-time Pro Bowler. He should be able to beat out the incumbent Daly (who has played only on the 2021-22 Lions). Gibbs is an above-average kick returner (23.9 yards per return, 1 TD in college) who could help pay off his first-round draft capital by contributing outside of the offense. Raymond was a second-team All-Pro punt returner last year (13.2 yards per return, 1 TD).

Schedule Analysis

Here are my notes on the Lions’ strength of schedule and a pivotal stretch of games that I think will shape how their season unfolds.

• Strength of Schedule: No. 11
• Home Division: NFC North
• Opposing Division: NFC South, AFC West
• Key Stretch: Weeks 1-3
• Opponents: at KC, vs. SEA, vs. ATL

The Lions have the 11th-easiest schedule based on the market win totals of their 2023 opponents thanks to a relatively weak division and matchups with the NFC South. But there are parts of their schedule that should be challenging. For instance, they have four-of-five away near the end of the season (Weeks 13-17). If they struggle in that stretch, they could enter Week 18 needing a win to make the postseason.

But it’s the opening stretch that most has my attention. They kick off the season for the entire NFL by going on the road to play the Super Bowl-winning Chiefs on Thursday Night Football. They will be sizable underdogs. In Week 2, they host the Seahawks, who made the postseason last year. And then in Week 3 they stay at home and play the Falcons, who will be significant underdogs but who also match up well (No. 4 rush offense vs. No. 27 rush defense by 2022 EPA).

If the Lions somehow go 3-0 to open the season, that would be amazing. If they go 2-1, great. If 1-2, fine. If 0-3, terrible — because they still have eight road games remaining and three-of-four away immediately after Week 3… and there’s a clear, imaginable path to 0-3.

The last thing the Lions want is a poor start to the year after they opened 1-6 in 2022. Now imagine they go 0-3, and the very next game they play is on the road at Lambeau Field against the divisional rival Packers on Thursday Night Football.

How much pressure would they feel not to start 0-4?

The Lions probably won’t start 0-3. But they could, and if they do they might struggle to dig themselves out of that kind of hole again this year.

2023 worst-case scenario

As a pessimist, I think this is the realistic worst-case scenario for the 2023 Lions.

• Campbell reveals his awakened caveman tendencies when he decides to go for it in way too many suboptimal fourth-down situations, repeatedly justifying his actions by saying the phrase, “Gotta be aggressive,” which becomes a viral social media meme. 
• Glenn oversees a defense that only marginally improves.
• Goff regresses to his 2020-21 form.
• Montgomery plays like he just got paid, and Gibbs plays like a 199-pound. back.
• Jones has no juice left in his legs, and Williams fails to crack the starting lineup after returning from suspension.
• LaPorta does what most rookie TEs do.
• Vaitai misses the 2023 season because of a setback, and the RG spot becomes an ever-exploitable weak link in an otherwise strong chain.
• The defensive line continues to be a sieve against the run.
• Jack Campbell plays like an ordinary LB, and Anzalone has the worst year of his career.
• Sutton is merely average, Moseley misses half the year because of knee issues and Gardner-Johnson moves to LB as the team experiments with personnel groupings.
• Badgley wins the starting job and is cut in Week 4.
• The Lions miss the playoffs at 6-11, Glenn “resigns,” Johnson leaves for an HC opportunity, Engstrand follows Johnson to be his OC and Campbell struggles to fill the OC and DC vacancies before ultimately settling on two former (and uninspiring) coaching colleagues — Joe Philbin (2012-15 Dolphins HC) and Mike Nolan (2017-19 Saints LBs coach).

2023 best-case scenario

As an idealist, I think this is the realistic best-case scenario for the 2023 Lions.

• Campbell successfully straddles the line between absurd and advantageous with his fourth-down decisions, and “Gotta be aggressive” becomes a rallying cry for the Lions fanbase.
• Glenn coaches his defense to a No. 12 finish in scoring.
• Goff sets a new career high passing yardage.
• Montgomery has his fifth consecutive season of 1,000-plus scrimmage yards and leads the league in touchdowns rushing while Gibbs has 800 yards rushing and 800 yards receiving on his way to winning Offensive Rookie of the Year.
• Jones has a bounceback campaign with 9.0 yards per target, and Williams balls out for 1,000 yards receiving in 11 games.
• LaPorta plays like the next great Iowa TE.
• Vaitai is healthy to start the year, and the Lions OL holds opponents to a league-low 20 sacks.
• The defensive line spearheads an overall pass-rushing effort that finishes top-five with 50 sacks.
• Jack Campbell wins Defensive Player of the Year with 150 tackles and four interceptions, and Anzalone is rendered irrelevant.
• Sutton is his steady self, Moseley plays the entire year and Gardner-Johnson energizes the entire defense with his willingness to throw his body around and antagonize opposing star players. The three of them form a cohesive unit almost immediately, and they start calling themselves “Grand Funk” in honor of the power trio from Flint, Michigan.
• Patterson wins the starting job and manages to hit over 90% of his attempts — just as he did in 2021.
• Lions go 13-4 to win the division and No. 2 seed, make “We’re an American Band” their theme song heading into the playoffs (à la “Gloria” with the 2018-19 NHL Blues), dominate the NFC North rival Vikings on Super Wild Card Weekend, upset the QB-wounded 49ers in the Divisional Round, host and humiliate the Cowboys in the NFC Championship, and then beat the Dolphins by seven points in the highest-scoring Super Bowl ever thanks to a 39-yard catch-and-run score by LaPorta on fourth-and-1 with 2:12 left and then a defensive stand that ends with Jack Campbell forcing a fumble recovered by Hutchinson.

In-season angles

I view the Lions as a strong “bet on” team that will likely offer the most advantage in division and at home.

• Campbell in Division: 10-2 ATS (59.3% ROI)
• Campbell in Division: 7-5 ML (44.2% ROI)
• Campbell at Home: 13-4 ATS (47.0% ROI)
• Campbell at Home: 8-9 ML (27.0% ROI)

Conversely, if there were ever an ideal time to bet against the Lions, it would likely be outside division and on the road, but I would bet it on the moneyline, not the spread — because there’s a difference between winning and covering in terms of how teams perform. In general, Campbell’s Lions have been way better at covering (29.5% ROI) than winning (-5.2% ROI) relative to market expectations. That makes sense to me, given the kind of “never say die” guy Campbell is, and I expect that to continue.

• Campbell Outside Division: 5-16-1 ML (10.8% ROI for faders)
• Campbell on Road: 4-12-1 ML (3.1% ROI for faders)

But, really, I’m not overly desirous to bet against the Lions this year.

Data from Action Network, includes playoffs.

Offseason market to exploit

I don’t like the value in the team futures market, so I’m looking to the season-long player prop market.

Jahmyr Gibbs Over 590.5 Yards Rushing (-115) (Caesars)

I rarely bet season-long player overs. If I’m bullish on a guy relative to the market and that market requires me to lock up money for months, then I usually want to exploit my perceived edge in as maximal of a way as possible. I shoot for upside with an MVP bet or Rookie of the Year bet or something like that.

But this number for Gibbs is so off that I can’t help but invest.

I have him projected for 681.7 yards rushing, and I think I’m being at least a little conservative on both the volume (161.2 attempts) and the efficiency (4.23 yards per carry).

Gibbs is small, but he has first-round draft capital and is running behind a top-three offensive line in a top-eight offense.

If he hits the under, I doubt he’ll fall short by much — but if he hits the over there's a lot of room for him to smash.

You can tail the over on Caesars Sportsbook, where you can also get your first bet of up to $1,250 completely on the house. All you have to do is sign up below and start betting today!

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