2023 Green Bay Packers Betting Preview

Last year, the Green Bay Packers hoped to win the Super Bowl. They didn’t even have a winning season, going 8-9 and missing the playoffs thanks to a Week 18 loss at home in primetime to the Lions.

A couple of months and one darkness retreat later, they were informed by franchise QB Aaron Rodgers that he wanted to be traded, so the team indulged his desires, sent him to the Jets, and commenced with the Jordan Love era three years after making him a Day 1 pick.

This year, the Packers have more modest goals. It would be nice if they can have a winning record, make the playoffs, win the NFC North, and see how far they can advance in the postseason. After the bitterness of last season, that would be lovely. But what matters most to the Packers in 2023 is finding out whether the guy they went out of their way to alienate Rodgers for is actually worthy of carrying his mantle as the team’s next franchise QB.

In this 2023 Packers preview, we will look at the team’s offseason odds in various markets, my personal team projections and player projections for guys who might have props in the season-long markets.

I'll also dive into my projections for the 53-man roster with notes on each unit as well as the general manager and coaching staff, a schedule analysis, best- and worst-case scenarios, in-season betting angles and the offseason market that I think is most exploitable as of writing.

For fantasy analysis, check out Ian Hartitz’s excellent 2023 Packers preview.

Player stats from Pro Football Reference and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted. Historical sports betting data from Sports Odds History and Action Network (via Bet Labs).

2023 offseason odds

Projections as of Aug. 5.

Offensive Line

• Starters: LT David Bakhtiari, LG Elgton Jenkins, C Josh Myers, RG Jon Runyan, RT Zach Tom
• Backups: OT Yosh Nijman, G/T Royce Newman, G/T Sean Rhyan, OT Rasheed Walker 
• Borderline: OT Caleb Jones 
• Unit Ranking: No. 6

Bakhtiari is a soon-to-be 32-year-old two-time first-team All-Pro franchise blindside stalwart who missed most of 2021 to an ACL tear but returned to action in 2022 and looked like his former self. An above-average run blocker and near-elite pass protector, Bakhtiari has allowed only one sack since 2020 and is the leader of a group that returns all its starters and backups.

Jenkins is a two-time Pro Bowl 2019 second-rounder who has played most at LG but significantly at LT, C and RT. He adds great value with his positional versatility and is a plus two-phase blocker.

Myers is a 2021 second-rounder who is poor at run blocking (53.5 PFF grade last year) but strong at pass protecting (13 pressures on 604 pass rushes). Runyan is the son of Jon Runyan Sr., a longtime RT who started 192 NFL games and played in multiple Super Bowls.

Runyan Jr. is a 2020 sixth-rounder who backed up as a rookie, started at LG in 2021, and then flipped to RG midseason in 2022. Like Myers, he’s a subpar run blocker (53.6 PFF grade last year) but strong pass blocker (five sacks allowed since 2021). 

Tom is a 2022 fourth-rounder who saw snaps last year at every non-C position on the line. He was a liability in the run game (55.7 PFF grade) but asset in the pass game (one sack on 270 pass rushes) and has opened training camp as the presumptive starting RT, although he’ll need to beat out Nijman, a 2019 UDFA who has made 21 starts over the past two years and steadily improved throughout his career. Nijman can play on both sides of the line and offers quality depth as one of the league’s best swing tackles.

Newman is a 2021 fourth-rounder who started 16 games at RG as a rookie, but the return of Bakhtiari and elevation of Tom pushed him to the bench last year. Newman is poor across the board (career-high PFF grade of 57.5), but he at least is experienced and familiar with the system. 

Rhyan and Walker are both four-star 2022 selections who combined for just five special teams snaps last year but have long-term potential. Rhyan is a third-rounder who earned the starting LT job at UCLA as a true freshman and entered the NFL as a junior.

Walker — like Rhyan — started for three years at LT in college but slipped to the seventh round because of range concerns. Both might need to kick inside to guard eventually, and they will face camp competition from Jones, a 2022 UDFA developmental project with mouth-watering size (6-foot-9 and 370 pounds).     

Defensive Line

• EDGE Starters: Rashan Gary, Preston Smith
• EDGE Backups: Lukas Van Ness, Kingsley Enagbare, Justin Hollins
• DT Starters: Kenny Clark, Devonte Wyatt
• DT Backups: T.J. Slaton, Colby Wooden, Karl Brooks
• Borderline: EDGE Brenton Cox and DT Jonathan Ford
• Notable Turnover: EDGE Jonathan Garvin (free agent), DTs Jarran Reed (Seahawks) and Dean Lowry (Vikings)
• Unit Ranking: No. 18

Gary is a 2019 first-rounder with freakish athleticism (4.58-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-4 and 277 pounds) and 15.5 sacks in 27 games over the past two years. He missed the second half of 2022 with an ACL tear and opened camp on the PUP, but all indications are that he will be ready to play at or near the start of the season.

Smith is a 30-year-old veteran who signed with the Packers in 2019 after opening his career in Washington. In his four years in Green Bay, Smith has amassed 33.5 sacks and been respectable against the run.

Van Ness is a first-round rookie who has Gary-like athleticism (4.58-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-5 and 272 pounds) and racked up 13.5 sacks and 19.5 tackles for loss in two years at Iowa as a rotational player. He has edge/interior functionality and All-Pro upside. Enagbare is a 2022 fifth-rounder who had a mediocre rookie campaign (61.4 PFF grade), but he held the fort with 465 snaps. 

Hollins is a 2019 fifth-rounder who played on the Broncos as a rookie under Brandon Staley (then outside LBs coach) and then was picked up by the Rams in 2020, where Staley was the new DC and Barry was positioned as the LBs coach.

When the Rams waived Hollins late last year, the Packers picked him up, gave him regular rotational snaps and then signed him to a one-year deal with $155K guaranteed, so he’s likely to make the roster. He’s an unexceptional pass rusher but above-average run defender, and he’s familiar with Barry.

If Gary isn’t ready to play early in the year, the Packers could keep Cox, a five-star rookie UDFA who was kicked out of the Georgia and Florida programs but produced when on the field (32.5 tackles for loss in final three years).

Clark is a two-time Pro Bowler who has been with the Packers since his 2016 rookie season. A strong interior pass rusher, Clark started his career as more of a run-challenging nose, but since 2020 he has primarily been a four-technique player, and as such he has been less impactful in run defense (career-low 53.0 PFF grade last year). Wyatt is a 2022 first-rounder who rotated in as the No. 5 DT last year.

With Reed and Lowry gone, Wyatt will need to step up as a starter. He was a solid contributor as a rookie (69.9 PFF grade) and was a star on the 2021 championship-winning Georgia defense.

Slaton is a 2021 fifth-rounder who can line up at nose thanks to his size (6-foot-5 and 330 pounds) but is undistinguished as a run defender or pass rusher. Wooden is a fourth-round rookie tweener who is built like a large edge (6-foot-4 and 273 pounds) but is most impactful on the interior as a pass rusher (11 sacks in final two seasons).

Brooks is a sixth-round rookie tweener who is built like a three-tech tackle (6-foot-4 and 296 pounds) but is maybe best as a situational bull-rushing edge (17.5 sacks, 30.5 tackles for loss in last two seasons). Both Wooden and Brooks will likely need to beat out Ford, a 2022 seventh-rounder who made the 53-man roster last year but was a gameday inactive for the entire season. 

Off-Ball Linebackers

• Starters: De'Vondre Campbell, Quay Walker
• Backups: Isaiah McDuffie, Eric Wilson, Tariq Carpenter
• Notable Turnover: Krys Barnes (Cardinals)
• Unit Ranking: No. 17

Campbell is a 30-year-old veteran who was first-team All-Pro in his first season with the Packers in 2021 after five years as a subpar starter for the Falcons (2016-19) and Cardinals (2020). In Green Bay, Campbell has made a quantum leap as a cover man (82.22 PFF grade in 2021, 81.0 last year) and been effective as a blitzer (14 pressures on 77 pass rushes), but he regressed as a run defender last season. 

Walker is a 2022 first-rounder who was the No. 3 LB on the 2021 Georgia defense, but he went so high in the draft because of his athletic profile (4.52-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-4 and 241 pounds), recruitment pedigree (five stars) and theoretical upside. But in the words of Brad Pitt’s Billy Beane: “If he’s a good hitter why doesn’t he hit good?” Walker was solid in coverage as a rookie but a stone-cold disaster in run defense (35.1 PFF grade). He’ll probably improve in his second season — he can’t be much worse in the box — but he might not be the promised prince. 

McDuffie (2021 sixth-rounder) and Wilson (28-year-old journeyman) are special team standouts who tied for a team-high 10 tackles on the coverage units — but they’re both defensive liabilities. Carpenter is a 2022 seventh-round S-to-LB convert who played 17 snaps last year. 

Secondary

• CB Starters: Jaire Alexander, Rasul Douglas, Keisean Nixon
• CB Backups: Corey Ballentine, Carrington Valentine
• S Starters: Darnell Savage, Rudy Ford
• S Backups: Jonathan Owens, Tarvarius Moore, Dallin Leavitt
• Injured: CB Eric Stokes (knee, foot)
• Borderline: CB Shemar Jean-Charles and S Anthony Johnson
• Notable Turnover: SS Adrian Amos (Jets)
• Unit Ranking: No. 7

Alexander is a 2018 first-rounder who has been a second-team All-Pro in his two most recent full seasons. He missed all but four games in 2021 because of a shoulder injury, but over the past three years he has allowed just 6.4 yards per target. He’s not big (5-foot-10 and 196 pounds), but he has the speed (4.38-second 40-yard dash) and physicality to match up with almost any WR.

Stokes is a 2021 first-rounder who had a promising rookie season (51% catch rate), but he suffered severe-sounding season-ending injuries in Week 9 last year and is dealing with the dreaded Lisfranc.

I’m conservatively projecting him to be unavailable to start the season, but he might return faster than I expect. In Stokes’ absence last year, Douglas kicked outside to the perimeter and Nixon stepped up as the slot corner, and we’d likely see that configuration again if Stokes were out.

Douglas is a 2017 third-rounder who joined the Packers in 2021 after four years with the Eagles (2017-19) and Panthers (2020). Inconsistent early in his career, Douglas has been a strong producer with the Packers, holding receivers to 6.5 yards per target. Nixon is a 2019 UDFA who played minimally for the Raiders for his first three seasons but followed ST coordinator Rich Bisaccia to the Packers last year and — in addition to balling out as a return man — performed well enough as a backup slot defender (60.4 PFF coverage grade) to earn a one-year $4M deal.

Ballentine is a 2019 sixth-round journeyman who has been on six teams since 2020. He blasphemes the football gods in coverage (he has never had a PFF grade of even 45.0), but he was a core special teamer for the Packers last year. Valentine is a seventh-round rookie with just one interception in college but two years of starting experience in the SEC. They’ll both need to hold off Jean-Charles, a 2021 fifth-rounder with 321 special teams snaps over the past two years. 

Savage is a 2019 first-rounder who contributed immediately as a starter and was strong in coverage in his first two seasons (76.3 and 73.6 PFF grades), but he has drastically tailed off in his most recent campaigns (60.6, 43.8), and he has always been a run-game liability with his size (5-foot-11 and 198 pounds). In all fairness to him, though, it’s possible that his coverage regression has more to do with the switch to Barry’s scheme than his actual ability. Still, the team needs him to improve in 2023.

Ford is a 2017 sixth-rounder who caught on with the Packers last year, made six starts in the second half of the season and had a career-best campaign (74.6 PFF grade). Although he was mainly a deep safety last year, he played in the box and slot for the Jaguars in 2021 and is the early frontrunner to fill Amos’ vacated SS spot, but he’ll need to beat out Owens, a 28-year-old roster survivor who has box/deep flexibility and started 17 games for the Texans last year but underperformed (48.3 PFF grade) and has no guaranteed money on his one-year contract.

Moore is a 2018 third-rounder who played CB for the 49ers as a rookie and then shifted to safety and started 11 games in 2019-20, but he missed 2021 with a ruptured Achilles and played mainly on special teams in 2022. Leavitt is a Bisaccia guy who joined the Packers last year after four seasons with the Raiders. Although he played 255 defensive snaps with the Raiders in 2021, with the Packers in 2022 he was exclusively a special teamer. 

Johnson is a seventh-round rookie who switched from corner to safety in 2022. He has the size (6-foot and 205 pounds) to stay strong in the box and the coverage skills to hang with pass catchers in the slot. If Owens doesn’t impress, Johnson could steal his roster spot.

Specialists

• Kicker: Anders Carlson
• Punter: Pat O’Donnell
• Holder: Pat O’Donnell
• Long Snapper: Matt Orzech
• Kick Returner: Keisean Nixon
• Punt Returner: Keisean Nixon
• Borderline: P Daniel Whelan, LS Broughton Hatcher
• Notable Turnover: K Mason Crosby (free agent), LS Jack Coco (free agent), PR Amari Rodgers (Colts)

Carlson is the heir to Crosby’s Green Bay throne, recently vacated after 16 years. A sixth-round rookie with no training camp competition, Carlson was the No. 1 K prospect in the 2017 recruitment class — but he had a field goal rate of just 71.8% in college and was 30-of-56 converting on attempts of 40-plus yards. He has plenty of length strength but might lack the accuracy to stick in the NFL.

Donnell joined the Packers last season after eight years with the Bears. He doesn’t have much leg — he was No. 28 with 44.5 yards per punt last year — but he had a career-best 46.2% of his punts downed inside the 20-yard line (No. 4). That helps. Even so, he could lose his spot to Whelan, who has upside: In high school he hit a 72-yard field goal in practice…

… and he was All-XFL last year with the Defenders with 46.3 yards per punt.

Orzech joins the Packers after being the Rams LS for the past two years. He signed a three-year $3.7M deal with $300K guaranteed, so it would be an upset if he didn’t beat out rookie UDFA Hatcher.

Nixon followed ST coordinator Rich Bisaccia to the Packers last year after spending the previous three seasons with him on the Raiders, and his dedication to Bisaccia was rewarded with first-team All-Pro recognition on the strength of his 28.8 yards per kick return and 12.7 yards per punt return. One year does not an ace return man make, but Nixon was a top-three specialist in 2022.

Schedule analysis

Here are my notes on the Packers’ strength of schedule and a pivotal stretch of games that I think will shape how their season unfolds.

• Strength of Schedule: No. 9
• Home Division: NFC North
• Opposing Division: NFC South, AFC West
• Key Stretch: Weeks 10-14
• Opponents: at PIT, vs. LAC, at DET, vs, KC, at NYG

The Packers have a top-10 schedule based on the market win totals of their opponents. It’s not a hard schedule. But Weeks 10-14 are definitely not easy.

After a relatively gentle back-to-back homestand against the Vikings and Rams, the Packers go to Pittsburgh in Week 10 to face the Steelers, who have a three-day rest advantage. For Week 11, they host the Chargers. It’s Lambeau Field in November, so it’s not ideal for the warm weather visitors, but the game is at 1 p.m. ET, and it’s probably one or two weeks before the temperature will get unbearably cold, so the Packers won’t have as extreme of a home-field advantage as they could.

For Week 12, they go on the road on four days of rest to play the Lions in the early Thanksgiving Day game, and then they return home to host the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football.

The Packers will have three extra days of rest, and the weather should be cold — but the extra rest probably won’t matter against the Chiefs, and neither will the temperature, given that Kansas City is a cold weather stadium in the winter. Finally, the Packers go back out on the road for a Monday Night Football matchup against the Giants, who are coming off their bye.

In all five of these games the Packers are underdogs. In their three road games, they’re either on short rest or a rest disadvantage. In their two home games, they’re going against championship contenders.

The Packers could enter the final month of the season on a five-game losing streak.

2023 worst-case scenario

As a pessimist, I think this is the realistic worst-case scenario for the 2023 Packers.

• GM Brian Gutekunst unwittingly alienates more stars, who are displeased with him for creating an environment that would make QB Aaron Rodgers and WR Davante Adams want to leave.
• HC Matt LaFleur overwhelms his first-year starting QB by failing to simplify his offense from the version run by Rodgers.
• DC Joe Barry continues to roll out a defense that is less than the sum of its expensive parts.
• QB Jordan Love performs like a guy with one NFL start and no proven WRs and TEs.
• RB Aaron Jones breaks down in his age-29 season but continues to see heavy usage anyway because he’s not injured.
• WR Christian Watson proves the theory of gravity by coming back to earth.
• TEs Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft are so bad as rookies that they fall behind TE Josiah Deguara.
• LT David Bakhtiari suffers an early-season injury, and OC Adam Stenavich responds by experimenting with different personnel alignments on the OL, which consequently struggles to keep Love upright because of the disrupted continuity.
• EDGE Rashan Gary misses the first six weeks of the season because of his ACL tear and is slow to return to his full form after he’s activated.
• DTs Kenny Clark and Devonte Wyatt pave roadways for opposing RBs to cruise.
• LBs De'Vondre Campbell and Quay Walker turn those roadways into highways.
• CB Eric Stokes misses the first four games because of his Lisfranc injury and then suffers a season-ending (and possibly related) ankle injury in Week 7.
• FS Darnell Savage declines even further as a pass defender, and SS Rudy Ford regresses to his career-average mediocrity.
• K Anders Carlson looks like a rookie who converted only 71.8% of his field goal attempts in college.
• Packers go 6-11 but finish on a misleading four-game win streak, which convinces LaFleur to stick with Love as the starter and to bring Barry back for another year as DC.

2023 best-case scenario

As an idealist, I think this is the realistic best-case scenario for the 2023 Packers.

• GM Brian Gutekunst wanders freely through the fields of Wisconsin now that he has removed the Rodgers landmine.
• HC Matt LaFleur scales the offense to his starting QB.
• DC Joe Barry tweaks his defense to leverage his playmakers.
• QB Jordan Love performs like a typical fourth-year first-round unquestioned starter.
• RB Aaron Jones racks up a career-high 1,600 yards from scrimmage as the focal point of the offense.
• WR Christian Watson proves that a human can break the earth’s gravitational pull if he has a rocket strapped to his back. 
• TEs Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft play like nondescript league-average veterans.
• LT David Bakhtiari misses only one game to a minor injury, and OC Adam Stenavich effectively manages the OL’s pass blocking deficiencies.
• EDGE Rashan Gary returns to action in Week 1 and has his first season with double-digit sacks.
• DTs Kenny Clark and Devonte Wyatt do just enough to keep opposing RBs from destroying them.
• LBs De'Vondre Campbell and Quay Walker give the interior DL more effective run support than they did last year.
• CB Eric Stokes returns in Week 1, eases into a full workload in the first five games and comes out of the Week 6 bye ready to man his perimeter spot on a full-time basis.
• FS Darnell Savage bounces back to his pre-2021 pass coverage form, and SS Rudy Ford regresses only slightly from his career-best 2023 performance.
• K Anders Carlson looks like the guy who was the No. 1 player at his position in the 2017 recruitment class.
• Packers go 12-5, win the NFC North, beat the Rams on Super Wild Card Weekend in a #RevengeGame for LaFluer and then lose by 11 points on the road to the 49ers in the Divisional Round.

In-season angles

I view the Packers as a moderate “bet against” team, although I will be quick to update my prior assumptions early in the year if QB Jordan Love plays well.

I think the Packers will be most overvalued at home. Throughout the Rodgers era, they had an incredibly strong home-field advantage.

• Rodgers at Home: 73-42-4 ATS (22.8% ROI)
• Rodgers at Home: 92-25-1 ML (8.7% ROI)

But that same market advantage has not extended to Rodgers’ backups.

• 2008-22 GB Backup QBs at Home: 2-8 ATS (56.1% ROI for faders)
• 2008-22 GB Backup QBs at Home: 3-6-1 ML (10.5% ROI for faders) 

If I do bet on the Packers this year, I’ll likely do so when they’re underdogs, given LaFleur’s performance when getting points.

• LaFleur as Underdog: 13-5 ATS (38.3% ROI)
• LaFleur as Underdog: 11-7 ML (54.7% ROI)

Data from Action Network, includes playoffs.

Offseason market to exploit

In the win total market, we have a synthetic negative-hold opportunity.

• Over 7.5 Wins: -115 (BetRivers)
• Under 7.5 Wins: +120 (Caesars)

At these odds, the sportsbooks are effectively paying us to take a position, and my projection of 7.6 wins puts this at almost a coin flip. Even though my projection points slightly to the over, it’s close enough to the market total for me to say that this is a 50/50 bet, and if I can flip coins at plus odds I’ll be inclined to do it.

So I like under 7.5 wins.

But the bet I really like is in the player market.

Jordan Love NFL Leader in Interceptions (+1300, DraftKings)

At BetRivers, Love’s passing yardage prop is as low as 3,150.5 with +101 odds on the over, and I have him projected for 3,503.9. I tend not to bet overs in the season-long prop market, but this looks like an attractive bet because I expect Love — even if he struggles — to play all 17 games if healthy and to get opportunities to throw the ball, because the team needs to evaluate him to see if he’s the QB of the future.

But here’s the thing: If I think Love will get the opportunity to play all 17 games and throw the ball… why wouldn’t I just bet on him to lead the league in interceptions at +1300?

I have him projected for a league-high 13.8 interceptions, but at DraftKings, Love is tied for No. 3 in shortest odds behind Josh Allen (+1000) and Dak Prescott (+1000), so there might be an opportunity in the market.

The Packers are underdogs in 12 contests and could have pass-leaning game scripts throughout the season.

Love is a fourth-year first-rounder — but he’s also a young QB in his first season as a starter. Peyton Manning led the league in interceptions (28) in his first year starting. So did Trevor Lawrence (17).

Even good older QBs can top the board in aerial turnovers. Matthew Stafford led the league in interceptions (17) in 2021 — and then won the Super Bowl. Back in the day, Brett Favre led the league in interceptions in 1993 (24), 2005 (29) and 2008 (22).

It’s not an indictment to say that Love has a good chance to lead the league in interceptions. It’s a way of saying that the team is likely to stick with him for all 17 games and to give him the freedom to go through his natural growing pains, even if he does exhibit some gunslinging and careless tendencies.

That’s a good thing.

Hopefully.

You can tail the interception bet on DraftKings Sportsbook, where you can also get up to $1,000 in DK Dollars when you create a new account! Simply sign up below and start betting today!

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