2023 Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Preview

Last year the Jacksonville Jaguars leaped from 3-14 and worst in the league to 9-8 and No. 1 in the AFC South. They won an epic 31-30 come-from-behind Wild Card matchup with the Chargers after digging themselves into a 27-0 hole. They hung with the Chiefs in a 27-20 Divisional Round loss and proved that they belong in the conversation of contenders. 

They washed off the one-year stink of former HC Urban Meyer and liberally applied the professional-grade deodorant of Super Bowl-winning HC Doug Pederson. And they saw franchise QB and 2021 No. 1 pick Trevor Lawrence develop into a top-12 passer. 

Last year was an astounding success. This year, the Jaguars plan to build on their 2022 achievements by repeating as division champs, going further in the postseason and just maybe winning a Super Bowl.

In this 2023 Jaguars preview, we will look at the team’s offseason odds in various markets, my personal team projections and player projections for guys who might have props in the season-long markets.

I'll also dive into my projections for the 53-man roster with notes on each unit as well as the general manager and coaching staff, a schedule analysis, best- and worst-case scenarios, in-season betting angles and the offseason market that I think is most exploitable as of writing.

For fantasy analysis, check out Ian Hartitz’s excellent 2023 Jaguars preview.

Player stats from Pro Football Reference and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted. Historical sports betting data from Sports Odds History and Action Network (via Bet Labs).

2023 Jacksonville Jaguars offseason odds

Projections as of June 30.

Offensive Line

• Starters: LT Walker Little, LG Ben Bartch, C Luke Fortner, RG Brandon Scherff, RT Anton Harrison
• Backups: OT Josh Wells, C/G Tyler Shatley, T/G Blake Hance, OL Cooper Hodges
• Suspended: LT Cam Robinson (Weeks 1-4)
• Notable Turnover: RT Jawaan Taylor (Chiefs)
• Unit Ranking: No. 8

Robinson entered the NFL in 2017 as a five-star All-American three-year SEC LT who fell to Day 2 primarily because of non-violent off-field concerns. Although he has never sniffed a Pro Bowl, he’s a high-floor blindside starter who has steadily elevated his ceiling throughout his career. He’s consistently subpar as a run blocker, but as a pass blocker, he has improved from 50 QB pressures allowed as a rookie to 27 last year. 

Robinson will miss the first four games of the season for violating the league’s policy on performance-enhancing drugs but should return ready to start in Week 5. While out, he’ll likely be replaced at LT by Little, a 2021 second-rounder who has made eight LT starts in relief of Robinson over the past two years. He’s acceptably average as the team’s swing tackle.

Bartch is a 2020 fourth-rounder who played RG in 2021 before moving to LG in 2022 to make room for Scherff. He suffered a season-ending knee injury in Week 5 but is expected to reclaim his starting job in 2023. Fortner is a 2022 third-rounder who started every game at the pivot as a rookie. Both Bartch and Fortner are average-at-best linemen, but neither is a notable liability and both are young enough to project improvement in their second full seasons as starters.

Scherff is a road-grading, 31-year-old, five-time Pro Bowler who allowed a career-high six sacks last year, but I expect a reversion to form in his second season with the team. Harrison is a 21-year-old first-round rookie with good athleticism (4.98-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-4 and 315 pounds) who will likely replace Taylor at RT, although he could fill in at LT in Weeks 1-4 and is a potential long-term blindside successor to Robinson.

Wells is a career-long backup and heavy-set sixth lineman who started his career with the Jaguars as a 2014 UDFA and has returned to the team after four seasons with the Buccaneers. With 24 starts over the past six years, Wells has experience at both tackle spots and is an above-average pass blocker and run blocker. 

Like Wells, Shatley is a 2014 UDFA who started out with the Jaguars, but unlike Wells he never left the team. He has made 45 starts over the past seven years and can play all three interior spots. Only once in his career has he had a PFF pass-blocking grade lower than 60. Wells and Shatley combine to give the line strong veteran depth.

Hance is an undrafted 27-year-old journeyman who spent 2019 on the Jaguars practice squad before stints with the Jets, Browns and 49ers. He returned to the team in the second half of 2022 as a low-end reserve with experience at every non-C spot on the line. Hodges is a seventh-round rookie who made 51 RT starts in college but will likely kick inside in the NFL.

Defensive Line

• EDGE Starters: Joshua Allen, Travon Walker
• EDGE Backups: K'Lavon Chaisson, De'Shaan Dixon, Tyler Lacy
• DT Starters: Roy Robertson-Harris, DaVon Hamilton
• DT Backups: Folorunso Fatukasi, Adam Gotsis
• Borderline: EDGE Jordan Smith, DTs Raymond Vohasek and Michael Dogbe
• Notable Turnover: EDGEs Arden Key (Titans) and Dawuane Smoot (free agent), DT Corey Peters (retired)
• Unit Ranking: No. 26

Allen is a 2019 first-rounder slated to play 2023 on the fifth-year option. He’s yet to replicate his 12-sack rookie season, but he has maintained his pass-rushing prowess while steadily improving as a run defender (83.0 PFF grade in 2022). He’s a solid and well-rounded No. 1 EDGE. 

Walker is the consolation prize for Meyer’s mistakes. The No. 1 pick in last year’s draft, he’s a Baalke DL to the core: a five-star athlete (4.51-second 40-yard dash, 6.89-second three-cone at 6-foot-5 and 272 pounds) with limited college production (9.5 sacks in three years). As a rookie he had five sacks but was predictably raw. Improvement is expected for his second season, especially since Key and Smoot (last year’s top rotational EDGEs) are no longer with the team.

Chaisson is a 2020 first-rounder who has played fewer and fewer snaps each year (560 as a rookie, just 120 in 2022). He has three sacks for his career, and the team opted not to pick up his fifth year, which says it all. He’ll need to step up in a big way if he hopes to replace what Key contributed last year (541 snaps, 33 pressures). Dixon is a 2022 UDFA who played four snaps last year. 

He’ll be competing for snaps and maybe a roster spot with Lacy and Smith. Lacy is a Day 3 rookie tweener who never had more than four sacks in any college season. Smith is a four-star 2021 fourth-rounder who played 21 snaps as a rookie but missed 2022 to injury. The Jaguars have no proven depth at EDGE after Allen and Walker, who will be called upon to play a lot of snaps.

Robertson-Harris joined the Jaguars in 2021 after five years with the Bears, and the team gave him a three-year extension this offseason in recognition of his play. He has the positional flexibility to line up all over the DL — from nose to wide outside the tackle — and he has 35-plus pressures and tackles in each of his two seasons in Jacksonville. 

He’s an average-at-worst DT without large vulnerabilities. Hamilton is a 2020 third-rounder with nose size (6-foot-4 and 320 pounds) and the ability to pass rush from the interior (73.3 PFF grade last year). Like Robertson-Harris, he received a three-year extension this spring.

Fatukasi is a second-contract veteran who signed with the Jaguars last season after four years with the Jets. He’s a livable pass rusher (20 pressures in 2022) who used to be excellent against the run (87.6 and 86.2 PFF grades in 2019-20) but last year had a personal-low 24 tackles since becoming a starter in 2019. 

Gotsis is a 30-year-old veteran who has been with the Jaguars since 2020 on a series of one-year contracts (this offseason he finally got a two-year deal). He has three sacks in each of the past two years and is tolerable in run defense, but he’s undistinguished as a rotational player. 

Vohasek is a try-hard seventh-round rookie who posted 14 sacks in six years of college ball. Dogbe is a 27-year-old veteran who joins the team with a one-year deal, just $25,000 in guarantees, and poor play in his four years with the Cardinals. If the Jaguars opt for five DTs, Vohasek and Dogbe will likely be competing for the spot.

Off-Ball Linebackers

• Starters: Foye Oluokun, Devin Lloyd
• Backups: Chad Muma, Ventrell Miller, Yasir Abdullah
• Borderline: Shaquille Quarterman
• Unit Ranking: No. 18

Oluokun is a second-contract veteran who has led the league in tackles (192, 184) in back-to-back seasons (2021 Falcons, 2022 Jaguars). A Day 3 Yalie who has steadily improved in run defense, coverage and pass rush throughout his five-year career, Oluokun has the intelligence and athleticism (4.48-second 40-yard dash, 6.94-second three-cone at 6-foot-2 and 229 pounds) to continue to dominate in the middle. If he played in a bigger market and had a name that were easier to pronounce, he’d be a Pro Bowler. Lloyd is a 2022 first-rounder who thumps against the run but allowed a position-high 795 yards receiving as a rookie. He will need to be less of a coverage liability in 2023.

Muma is a 2022 third-rounder who served as the No. 3 LB as a rookie. Like Lloyd, he was a solid run defender but a backer-sized black hole in coverage (41.0 PFF grade). Miller is an early-down downhill fourth-round rookie who’s limited against the pass. He’ll likely compete for playing time with Abdullah, a fifth-round rookie with off-ball/edge versatility. Although he’s not built like a typical edge (6-foot-1 and 237 pounds), he has the athleticism (4.47-second 40-yard dash) and college production (19.5 sacks in two final seasons) to justify a real shot at the position — but I expect the Jaguars to put him at LB first. Quarterman is a 2020 fourth-rounder who has done well in limited action (166 snaps), but he played only 22 snaps in 2022, and the additions of Lloyd and Muma last year and Miller and Abdullah this year will likely push him off the roster.

Secondary

• CB Starters: Tyson Campbell, Darious Williams, Tre Herndon
• CB Backups: Chris Claybrooks, Montaric Brown, Christian Braswell
• S Starters: Andre Cisco, Rayshawn Jenkins
• S Backups: Andrew Wingard, Antonio Johnson, Daniel Thomas
• Borderline: CBs Gregory Junior and Tevaughn Campbell, S Erick Hallett
• Notable Turnover: CB Shaquill Griffin (Texans)
• Unit Ranking: No. 21

Tyson Campbell is a 2021 second-rounder who was adequate as a rookie starter and then excellent as a sophomore breakout (5.9 yards per target). It’s an added bonus that he supports against the run (143 career tackles). Williams is a second-contract veteran who joined the Jaguars last season on a three-year deal. A starter and Super Bowl winner with the 2020-21 Rams, Williams has outside/inside versatility and had a career-best 6.2 yards per target in 2022. Herndon is a 2018 UDFA who has spent his entire career with the Jaguars and somehow played 2,718 snaps for the team despite never having a PFF coverage grade of even 60. He has theoretical flexibility in that he’s roughly equally bad at all three WR spots.

Claybrooks is a 2020 seventh-rounder with poor production (10.0 yards per target) and steadily diminishing play volume (375 snaps as a rookie, 47 last year). He’s a subpar No. 4 CB but regular special teams contributor. Brown is a 2022 seventh-rounder who earned a 37.3 PFF grade on 63 snaps last year. Braswell is a sixth-round rookie with good explosiveness (40-inch vertical, 11-foot broad) but suboptimal size (5-foot-10 and 185 pounds). He’ll likely be limited to slot work.

Frankly, none of them is (and none of them should be) a lock to make the roster, and they’ll all face competition from Junior and Tevaughn Campbell. Junior is a 2022 sixth-rounder who lived on the practice squad as a rookie but has upside with his athleticism (4.46-second 40-yard dash at 5-foot-11 and 202 pounds). Tevaughn Campbell is a CFL transfer who has allowed a 69.8% catch rate and 9.0 yards per target in three NFL seasons (2020-21 Chargers, 2022 Jaguars), but at least he has five-plus years of professional experience — if you can call getting killed in coverage “experience.”

Cisco is a 2021 third-round center field safety who had three interceptions last year and can support in run defense. Jenkins is a 29-year-old second-contract safety who signed with the Jaguars in 2021. He has box/deep versatility but back-to-back subpar PFF grades (56.9, 53.7) in his two years with the team. 

Wingard is a 2019 UDFA who has steadily elevated his play Wingardium Leviosa-style across his four-year career with the Jaguars. Since becoming a core contributor in 2020, he has never had a PFF coverage grade below 65. He can play both positions (Chaser and Beater) and probably loves Harry Potter references. 

Johnson is a physical four-star fifth-round rookie who can play as a box safety and nickel corner. Thomas is a 2020 fifth-rounder who contributes on special teams. Hallett is a sixth-round rookie with six interceptions in his two final seasons. He could push Johnson and Thomas for a roster spot.

Specialists

• Kicker: Brandon McManus
• Punter: Logan Cooke
• Holder: Logan Cooke
• Long Snapper: Ross Matiscik
• Kick Returner: Jamal Agnew
• Punt Returner: Jamal Agnew
• Borderline: K James McCourt
• Notable Turnover: K Riley Patterson (Lions)

McManus signed with the Jaguars this offseason after the Broncos cut him following a down year (77.8% field goal rate). But he had a conversion rate of at least 80% in each of the four prior seasons, and for his career he has a 55.5% rate on kicks of 50-plus yards. He’ll have a theoretical camp battle with McCourt (a 2022 UDFA, not the American writer), but McManus got $1.25M in guarantees at signing. It will be an upset if McCourt beats him out.

Cooke is a 2018 seventh-rounder with five years on the Jaguars. Last season he was No. 3 with 49.3 yards per punt, but he has never been able to get even 45% of his punts to be downed inside the 20-yard line. Matiscik is a 2020 UDFA with a hard-to-spell surname and three years as the Jaguars LS. Agnew was a first-team All-Pro in 2017 as a rookie and made the Pro Bowl last year. He has five TD returns in the NFL (3 punt, 2 kick) and career marks of 10.3 yards per punt return and 25.4 yards per kick return, which would’ve been good for No. 6 in both categories last year.

Jaguars schedule analysis

Here are my notes on the Jaguars’ strength of schedule and a pivotal stretch of games that I think will shape how their season unfolds.

• Strength of Schedule: No. 14
• Home Division: AFC South
• Opposing Division: AFC North, NFC South
• Key Stretch: Weeks 4-8
• Opponents: vs. ATL (neut.), vs. BUF (neut.), vs. IND, at NO, at PIT

The Jaguars have an average schedule based on the market win totals of their 2023 opponents, even though they won their division and a playoff game last year. That’s the benefit they get from playing in the AFC South and against the NFC South this year. But they still have some tough stretches in the schedule, including an unconventional four-of-five away right before their Week 9 bye.

In Week 4, the Jaguars travel to London to face the Falcons at Wembley. The Jags are favored, but given the unusual circumstances (altered travel schedule, playing early by ET time, sometimes subpar field conditions) the Falcons have upset potential with their top-five rushing attack. In Week 5, the Jaguars stay in London for a second consecutive international game, which gives them a travel advantage — but they play the favored Bills at Tottenham Hotspur, so any theoretical short-term home-field advantage they’d have via familiarity with the stadium won’t exist.

After their residence in London, the Jaguars travel back home for a Week 6 rematch against the divisional rival Colts, whom they play in Week 1. The Jags are significantly favored — but anything can happen in division (especially in a second divisional game) — and they could be disadvantaged from the London trip in ways we can’t anticipate, because we’ve never seen a team play back-to-back contests abroad, and usually teams take a bye right after a game in Europe.

And then the Jaguars head back out on the road for away games against the Saints and Steelers.  In Week 7, they’re in a pick’em on Thursday Night Football — which means they have two games within 11 days of leaving London. That’s absurd. And they’re underdogs in Week 8.

It’s unlikely, but there’s a real non-zero chance for the Jaguars, with just a little bad luck, to head into their Week 9 bye on a five-game losing streak… with the knowledge that they’ll be home underdogs against the 49ers in Week 10.

2023 worst-case scenario

As a pessimist, I think this is the realistic worst-case scenario for the 2023 Jaguars.

• Baalke and Pederson start to feud à la Baalke and Harbaugh with the 2011-14 49ers — because Baalke (not his coaches) is the true problem.
• Pederson becomes more conservative with his playcalling, which puts the offense in too many disadvantageous down-and-distance situations.
• Caldwell sees his defense regress back to its underlying 2022 stats.
• Lawrence plateaus.
• Etienne loses too many snaps to Bigsby and Hasty.
• Ridley is a shadow of his 2020 self, and Kirk and Engram both come down from their career-best performances last year.
• Robinson (for whatever mysterious reason) isn’t the same player once he returns from his PED suspension, Bartch and Fortner fail to improve, and Harrison struggles in the transition from college LT to NFL RT.
• Allen and Walker both wear down from overuse as the season progresses.
• Lloyd and Muma continue to be middle-of-the-field coverage atrocities.
• Herndon allows too many big plays.
• McCourt beats out McManus and then misses 30% of his attempts before being released in Week 5 — while the team is still in London.
• Jags go 6-11 in a “things fall apart” campaign, Pederson and Baalke are both fired, and the team hires Jim Caldwell as HC after he interviewed for the position in January 2022. 

2023 best-case scenario

As an idealist, I think this is the realistic best-case scenario for the 2023 Jaguars.

• Baalke and Pederson get along fine because they need to.
• Pederson stays sharp with his playcalling and decision making.
• Caldwell coaxes another No. 12 scoring finish from the defense.
• Lawrence wins MVP with a 4,500-45 passing campaign.
• Etienne racks up another 1,400-yard season.
• Ridley wins Comeback Player of the Year with a peak Antonio Brown-like 1,500-15 receiving performance, and Kirk and Engram approximate their 2022 production.
• Robinson has his first Pro Bowl season, Bartch and Fortner improve and Harrison dominates immediately.
• Allen and Walker stay fresh throughout the year because Chaisson manages not to be terrible and Abdullah becomes an unexpected high-impact contributor at edge.
• Lloyd and Muma progress as pass defenders from terrible to almost bearable.  
• Herndon is benched, and the team plays with three safeties in its nickel package.
• McManus beats out McCourt and reverts to his pre-2022 form.
• Jags go 13-4, get the No. 2 seed, beat the Chargers again in a double-digit come-from-behind effort on Super Wild Card Weekend, defeat the Bills by a touchdown in the Divisional Round and then gift Pederson the privilege of winning back-to-back #RevengeGames against his two former teams — the Chiefs (AFC Championship) and Eagles (Super Bowl) — as he gets a second championship and builds a case for Canton.

In-season angles

I view the Jaguars as a neutral betting team.

I will likely be most willing to bet on them as underdogs.

• Pederson as Underdog: 30-22 ATS (11.4% ROI)
• Pederson as Underdog: 24-28 ML (26.0% ROI)
• Pederson as Underdog (Jags Only): 9-5 ATS (23.4% ROI)
• Pederson as Underdog (Jags Only): 8-6 ML (41.1% ROI)

Conversely, I’ll probably be most desirous to fade them as favorites.

• Pederson as Favorite: 23-30 ATS (9.4% ROI for faders)
• Pederson as Favorite: 32-20-1 ML (5.9% ROI for faders)
• Pederson as Favorite (Jags Only): 1-4 ATS (53.1% ROI for faders)
• Pederson as Favorite (Jags Only): 2-3 ML (60.0% ROI for faders)

I doubt I’ll take much of a stand on them either way during the season.

Data from Action Network, includes playoffs.

Offseason market to exploit

I don’t like the value in the team futures market, so I’m looking to the player futures market.

Calvin Ridley Most Receiving Yards +6000

This number is +6000 at Caesars, +5000 at DraftKings, +4000 at FanDuel and as low as +2500 at BetRivers — so we’re getting good line-shopping value at Caesars at +6000.

The last time we saw the real Ridley was 2020, when he was No. 5 in the league with 1,374 yards receiving in 15 games. He did that with a broken foot.

He’s 28 years old, so he’s still in his physical prime. His foot is healed. His mind and body are rested thanks to his time off. He’s with potentially the best QB and playcaller he has ever had (apologies to late-career Matt Ryan and OCs Steve Sarkisian and Dirk Koetter).

Sure, that’s the bull case — and there’s an obvious bear case to be made: He hasn’t played football in over a year, and he could (seemingly) choose to walk away from the game whenever he wants because of personal reasons.

But at +6000 I’m willing to bet on the upside of his talent. And when he finishes No. 2 in receiving behind Justin Jefferson I will be extremely tilted.

You can tail the value on Caesars Sportsbook and also get your first bet of up to $1,250 completely on the house when you sign up for a new Caesars Sportsbook account below!

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