2023 Las Vegas Raiders Betting Preview

The Las Vegas Raiders were a carelessly fashionable darling of trendsetting analysts last year.

They had new faces of the franchise (HC Josh McDaniels, GM Dave Ziegler, No. 1 WR Davante Adams) and had managed to make the playoffs the year prior with a 10-7 record amidst terrible circumstances (HC Jon Gruden resigned midseason in a scandal, and WR Henry Ruggs and CB Damon Arnette were cut in November for serious off-field incidents).

With an improved environment, how could the Raiders not take a step forward? 

Predictably, they took three steps back, finishing 6-11 and disenchanting fans in the process by losing numerous close games against subpar teams due to questionable decisions.

This year, the Raiders would simply like to be a functional franchise with a coach who looks like he knows what he’s doing and a team that plays intelligent, competitive football. If the Raiders also happen to have a winning record and make the playoffs, that’s an added bonus.

In this 2023 Raiders preview, we will look at the team’s offseason odds in various markets, my personal team projections and player projections for guys who might have props in the season-long markets.

I'll also dive into my projections for the 53-man roster with notes on each unit as well as the general manager and coaching staff, a schedule analysis, best- and worst-case scenarios, in-season betting angles and the offseason market that I think is most exploitable as of writing.

For fantasy analysis, check out Ian Hartitz’s excellent 2023 Raiders preview.

Player stats from Pro Football Reference and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted. Historical sports betting data from Sports Odds History and Action Network (via Bet Labs).

2023 offseason odds

Projections as of July 22.

Offensive Line

• Starters: LT Kolton Miller, LG Dylan Parham, C Andre James, RG Alex Bars, RT Jermaine Eluemunor
• Backups: OT Brandon Parker, G/C Greg Van Roten, OT Thayer Munford, C/G Hroniss Grasu
• Borderline: G/T McClendon Curtis
• Unit Ranking: No. 24

Miller is a 2018 first-rounder who has yet to win any accolades but has developed into a top-10 blindside tackle who has allowed just 10 sacks over the past three years. Parham is a 2022 third-rounder who started two games at RG and two at C before settling in at LG for the rest of his rookie campaign. He was a terrible pass blocker last year (55 pressures allowed), but he’s acceptably average as a run blocker (66.9 PFF grade). 

James is a 2019 UDFA who has started at the pivot for the past two years. He has been good enough to keep his job but not good enough to secure an extension ahead of his contract-year campaign. Bars is a 2019 UDFA who joined the Raiders last year as a backup but was elevated to the starting lineup in Week 3.

If 2021 RG Alex Leatherwood (cut after preseason) or LG John Simpson (waived in December) had been able to keep their jobs, Bars likely would still be on the bench. He has never had a PFF grade of even 55. 

Eluemunor is a 2017 fifth-rounder who played for the Patriots in 2019-20, joined the Raiders in 2021 as a backup, and then secured the RT job when Parker — the 2021 starter — suffered a season-ending tricep injury in August.

Given Eluemunor’s familiarity with McDaniels and how well he played in 2022 (75.3 PFF grade), he will likely continue to start at RT, but he could easily regress from last year’s career-best campaign. With Eluemunor starting, Parker (2018 third-rounder) will likely be the team’s top swing tackle, despite allowing 97 pressures in his two seasons (2018, 2021) as a starter.

Van Roten is a 33-year-old journeyman with 54 starts over the past half decade. A competent-at-worst pass blocker with interior flexibility, he could push Bars, Parham and maybe even James for a starting job.

Munford is a 2022 seventh-rounder who made two RT starts last year and allowed just one sack on 205 pass blocks. He could push Parker for the swing spot. Grasu is a 31-year-old journeyman: He can play all three interior spots but has never had a PFF grade above 60. He could lose his roster spot to Curtis, a rookie UDFA with G/T versatility and $210,000 guaranteed. 

Defensive Line

• EDGE Starters: Maxx Crosby, Chandler Jones
• EDGE Backups: Tyree Wilson, Jordan Willis
• DT Starters: Bilal Nichols, Jerry Tillery
• DT Backups: Byron Young, Neil Farrell, Matthew Butler
• Borderline: EDGE Malcolm Koonce, DT Nesta Jade Silvera
• Notable Turnover: EDGE Clelin Ferrell (49ers), DTs Andrew Billings (Bears) and Kendal Vickers (Bills)
• Unit Ranking: No. 25

Crosby is a 2019 fourth-rounder who developed into the player the Raiders hoped Ferrell — his first-round classmate — would become. With Pro Bowls in back-to-back seasons, Crosby has 20.5 sacks and 35 tackles for loss since 2021.

He’s the lone rock in a line with a weak foundation. Jones is a four-time Pro Bowl and two-time first-team All-Pro 33-year-old who joined the Raiders last year after 10 seasons with the Patriots (2012-15) and Cardinals (2016-21). He was a defensive force in 2015-19, but in 2022 he had just 4.5 sacks and looked his age.

Wilson is the No. 7 pick of the 2023 draft. He has great size (6-foot-6 and 271 pounds) and good production (61 tackles, seven sacks in 10 games as a senior) and is capable in both phases, but he’s still working his way back from a foot injury that cut short his final season, and there’s no timetable for his return.

He shouldn’t miss his rookie year, but any time he misses in training camp will delay his development. Willis joins the Raiders as a 28-year-old league-average rotational journeyman. He’ll likely compete for a spot with Koonce, a 2021 third-rounder with special teams utility but only 116 defensive snaps in two years. 

Nichols signed a two-year deal with the Raiders last offseason after four years with the Bears. Only once has he had a PFF run-defense grade above 65.

Tillery is a 2019 first-rounder who caught on with the Raiders last year after the Chargers finally waived him in the middle of the season after 3.5 years of disappointment. He might be the league’s worst interior run defender to get regular playing time. 

Young is a four-star third-round rookie who was No. 2 on Alabama last year with four sacks. He lacks the size to be an A-gap player (6-foot-3 and 292 pounds), but he has potential as a three-technique rotator.

Farrell is a 2022 fourth-rounder who has the size to line up at nose (6-foot-4 and 325 pounds), but he had a 35.5 PFF grade last year. Butler is a 2022 fifth-rounder who played 56 subpar snaps as a rookie.

Both Farrell and Butler could be pushed for roster spots by Silvera, a four-star seventh-round rookie who contributes against the run but flounders in the rush.

Off-Ball Linebackers

• Starters: Divine Deablo, Robert Spillane
• Backups: Luke Masterson, Amari Burney, Darien Butler 
• Borderline: Drake Thomas
• Notable Turnover: Denzel Perryman (Texans) and Jayon Brown (free agent)
• Unit Ranking: No. 27

Deablo is a 2021 third-rounder who excels as a run thumper (two PFF grades above 70) but fails as a coverage backer (two PFF grades below 55). Spillane is a 2018 UDFA who joins the Raiders after three mediocre seasons of rotational play with the Steelers. He’s especially poor in coverage (8.1 yards per target).

Masterson is a 2022 UDFA who bloodied his way to a 30.8 PFF grade on 344 snaps as a rookie. Burney is a sixth-round rookie with good size (6-foot-1 and 233 pounds), great speed (4.51-second 40-yard dash) and decent coverage skills (two interceptions, four pass breakups as a senior).

Butler is a 2022 UDFA who was terrible on defense (43.7 PFF grade) but an ace on special teams (87.1 PFF grade). Butler could be pushed for his roster spot by rookie UDFA Thomas, a try-hard team captain with a nose for the ball (100-plus tackles in each of his two final seasons).

Secondary

• CB Starters: Nate Hobbs, Marcus Peters, Brandon Facyson
• CB Backups: David Long, Duke Shelley, Jakorian Bennett
• S Starters: Tre’von Moehrig, Marcus Epps
• S Backups: Roderic Teamer, Chris Smith
• Borderline: CBs Amik Robertson and Tyler Hall, S Jaquan Johnson
• Notable Turnover: CBs Rock Ya-Sin (Ravens) and Anthony Averett (free agent), FS Duron Harman (free agent), SS Johnathan Abram (Saints)
• Unit Ranking: No. 30

Hobbs is a 2021 fifth-rounder who played well as a slot rookie (7.0 yards per target) but exploitably as a perimeter sophomore (8.5). A strong run supporter, he’s likely to shift back to the slot now that the team has brought in more corners, and he’s probably the only player at the position I feel somewhat confident will start. Peters is a 30-year-old veteran who just signed with the Raiders right before training camp.

An interception-seeking defender who is vulnerable to double moves, Peters was the 2015 Defensive Rookie of the Year and a 2016 and 2019 first-team All-Pro, but he missed 2021 with an ACL tear and allowed 8.2 yards per target last season while capturing just one interception.

Maybe he’ll be better now another year removed from his knee injury, but rarely do players improve at his age. Facyson is a 2018 UDFA who opened his career with the 2018-20 Chargers, made a career-high nine starts for the 2021 Raiders, underwhelmed with the 2022 Colts and returned to the Raiders this offseason. He hasn’t had a PFF coverage grade of even 60 in any of the past four seasons. 

Long is a 2019 third-rounder who joins the Raiders after four years with the Rams. He’s a perimeter defender with the ability to flex into the slot, but he’s a liability against the run because of his size (5-foot-11 and 196 pounds), and last year he had just one pass breakup on 31 targets.

Shelley is a 2019 sixth-rounder who played three forgettable seasons as a rotational slot man for the Bears and then had the best campaign of his career as a perimeter corner for the 2022 Ravens (86.4 PFF coverage grade). Both Long and Shelley could compete for starting jobs — but they could both also lose their roster spots with poor camps.

Bennett is a fourth-round rookie with elite speed (4.30-second 40-yard dash) and 27 passes defended in his final two college seasons. Robertson is a 2020 fourth-rounder who allowed 9.1 yards per target on a career-high 677 snaps.

If the Raiders wanted him playing that much — or at all — in 2023, then they probably wouldn’t have brought in so many new CBs, and the same can be said for Hall, a 2020 UDFA who actually played well last year as a backup slot defender (50.0% catch rate, 2.4 yards per target) but is unlikely to make the team with all the competition ahead of him.

Moehrig is a 2021 second-rounder who won the Jim Thorpe Award as the top DB in college football as a true junior but has failed to distinguish himself in the NFL. He’s not reprehensible at anything, but he’s replaceable at everything. He at least has the versatility to play both safety spots.

Epps is a 2019 sixth-rounder who joins the Raiders after four years with the Vikings (2019) and Eagles (2019-22). He’s a natural SS in that he’s strong against the run (81.0 PFF grade last year) and weak in coverage (47.5 PFF grade).

Teamer is a 2019 UDFA who, aptly, has been a core special teamer for the Raiders for the past two years. As a defender, he has never had a PFF grade of even 60.

Smith is an All-American fifth-round rookie with subpar athleticism (4.62-second 40-yard dash) and size (5-foot-11 and 192 pounds) but strong production (61 tackles, five pass breakups, three interceptions as a senior) as a two-year starter at Georgia for the back-to-back national champions.

Johnson is a 2019 sixth-rounder who allowed 9.9 yards per target on 477 snaps in his first four years with the Bills — but he’s a special teams ace who has never had a PFF grade below 72.5. I think somehow he’ll end up making the roster.

Specialists

• Kicker: Daniel Carlson
• Punter: A.J. Cole
• Holder: A.J. Cole
• Long Snapper: Jacob Bobenmoyer
• Kick Returner: DeAndre Carter
• Punt Returner: DeAndre Carter
• Borderline: KR Ameer Abdullah, PRs Hunter Renfrow and Keelan Cole 
• Notable Turnover: LS Trent Sieg (Cowboys)

Carlson is a 2018 fifth-rounder who was drafted and cut by the Vikings after two games and then picked up by the Raiders in the second half of his rookie year. Since then, he has had a conversion rate of at least 90% in four of five seasons with the team, which is especially impressive considering that he has attempted 20 kicks of 50-plus yards over the past two years. A 2022 first-team All-Pro, Carlson might be the best NFL kicker not named “Justin Tucker.”

Cole is a 2019 UDFA with two Pro Bowls and one first-team All-Pro since 2021. In each of the past two years Cole has been top-five in yards per punt and top-eight in percentage of punts downed inside the 20-yard line. Bobenmoyer is a 2019 UDFA who joins the Raiders after four years with the Broncos, where he played under special teams coordinator Tom McMahon (2018-21). I guess McMahon likes him.

Carter is steady enough as a punt returner (9.8 yards per return) and kick returner (22.3 yards per return) that he could consolidate all of the return work into one role, and that theoretically makes Abdullah, Renfrow and Cole all less valuable to the team.

Schedule analysis

Here are my notes on the Raiders’ strength of schedule and a pivotal stretch of games that I think will shape how their season unfolds.

• Strength of Schedule: No. 29
• Home Division: AFC West
• Opposing Division: AFC East, NFC North
• Key Stretch: Weeks 1-4
• Opponents: at DEN, at BUF, vs. PIT, at LAC

Despite their 6-11 record last year, the Raiders have one of the league’s five hardest schedules based on the market win totals of their 2023 opponents. On top of that, they don’t get their bye until Week 13, and they kick off the season with a brutal three-of-four away.

The Raiders open the season on the road at Denver, where the elevation provides the divisional rival Broncos with a true home-field advantage, especially early in the year. For Week 2, they travel to Buffalo for an early game against the Bills. For Week 3, they return home to host the Steelers on Sunday Night Football.

The Raiders are short favorites, but if there’s one underdog team you probably wouldn’t want to play in primetime, it’s probably HC Mike Tomlin’s Steelers, who are always a tough team to beat. After that, the Raiders travel to Los Angeles to play the divisional rival Chargers.

The Raiders could very well open the year 0-4… before even playing the Chiefs twice.

2023 worst-case scenario

As a pessimist, I think this is the realistic worst-case scenario for the 2023 Raiders.

• GM Dave Ziegler fires his head coach against his will after a 1-11 start and gives current senior defensive assistant Rob Ryan the interim role, only to lose his own job at the end of the season after Ryan wins too many games for the team to secure a top-three pick.
• HC Josh McDaniels loses the locker room and fires OC Mick Lombardi after losing the first four games and elevates pass game coordinator Scott Turner to the new role of OC.
• DC Patrick Graham is fired after an embarrassing Week 8 road loss to the Lions on Monday Night Football and is replaced as DC by Rob Ryan.
• QB Jimmy Garoppolo clashes with Turner as the new OC and then suffers a Week 6 hand injury that sideline him for a month.
• RB Josh Jacobs sits out most of training camp because of his contract situation, finally reports to the team but is out of shape and then suffers from overuse as he has the most inefficient campaign of his career.
• WR Davante Adams openly demands a trade request after Week 2 and grumbles through the entire season while WR Hunter Renfrow is made a gameday inactive in Week 5 because, per McDaniels, “We’re going with the players we think give us the best chance to win, same as always.”
• TE Austin Hooper blocks promising rookie Michael Mayer.
• LG Dylan Parham, C Andre James and RG Alex Bars allow an onslaught of interior pressure, resulting in Garoppolo’s Week 6 (and then his Week 14) injury.
• EDGE Maxx Crosby is forced to play almost every defensive snap because he gets minimal support from the DL, and he consequently wears down before getting his second wind with the late Week 13 bye.
• DTs Bilal Nichols and Jerry Tillery might as well not even be on the field for the lack of run defense they provide.
• LBs Divine Deablo and Robert Spillane regularly lose their souls in coverage.
• CB Marcus Peters is cut before the season even starts.
• SS Marcus Epps is a human welcome wagon for opposing TEs.
• Raiders finish 5-12, and Rob Ryan is named the new HC after going 4-1 to close the season.

2023 best-case scenario

As an idealist, I think this is the realistic best-case scenario for the 2023 Raiders.

• GM Dave Ziegler takes more of an active role in personnel decisions and talks McDaniels out of trading away WR Hunter Renfrow for a Day 3 pick in the preseason.
• HC Josh McDaniels starts to get some Coach of the Year hype after the Raiders go 3-1 to open the year with a large point differential.
• DC Patrick Graham is talked about as a potential HC candidate after his defense holds the Lions to 17 points in a Week 8 road win. 
• QB Jimmy Garoppolo finishes No. 1 in the league AY/A and misses only two starts to a minor injury.
• RB Josh Jacobs again leads the NFL with 2,000-plus yards from scrimmage.
• WR Davante Adams has his fourth-straight first-team All-Pro season, and WR Hunter Renfrow bounces back to respectability.
• TE Michael Mayer plays well enough in the preseason to force his way into the starting lineup.
• LG Dylan Parham, C Andre James and RG Alex Bars allow an onslaught of interior pressure, resulting in Garoppolo’s Week 6 (and then his Week 14) injury.
• LG Dylan Parham marginally improves at pass protection, C Andre James doesn’t get any worse, RG Alex Bars loses his starting job to G/C Greg Van Roten and McDaniels effectively schemes around the weakness of his OL.
• EDGE Maxx Crosby gets just enough support from EDGEs Chandler Jones and Tyree Wilson to stay fresh enough for the entirety of the season.
• DTs Bilal Nichols and Jerry Tillery are benched early in the year for rookies Byron Young and Nesta Jade Silvera, who fortify the team’s interior run defense.
• LBs Divine Deablo and Robert Spillane are aided by rookie Amari Burney, who covers up their pass defense deficiencies.
• CB Marcus Peters returns to form and garners some light Comeback Player of the Year talk as he leads the league with eight interceptions.
• SS Marcus Epps loses his starting spot to rookie Chris Smith, who steps up at FS as Tre’von Moehrig slides into the SS role.
• Raiders go 12-5, squeak by the Jaguars and Bills on the road and then lose by 13 points to the Chiefs for the third time this year in the AFC Championship.

In-season angles

I view the Raiders as an emphatically strong “bet against” team, primarily because of their coaching and defense.

Instead of highlighting spots in which I want to fade the Raiders — because I think they’re overpriced in almost every game — I’ll call attention to a couple spots in which I’d consider backing them, if I were actually into that kind of thing.

If I were ever to bet on the Raiders this season, it would almost certainly need to be as underdogs.

• Garoppolo as Underdog: 17-5 ATS (50.4% ROI)
• Garoppolo as Underdog: 15-7 ATS (69.1% ROI) 

Also, the Week 6 #RevengeGame at home against the Patriots is intriguing. McDaniels as the offensive mind vs. HC Bill Belichick, a defensive genius and his former mentor. Garoppolo as the “heir apparent” whom Belichick discarded years ago so he could have a couple more seasons with QB Tom Brady. That narrative I like.

• McDaniels vs. Belichick: 2-0 ATS (93.6% ROI)
• McDaniels vs. Belichick: 2-0 ML (111.8% ROI)
• Garoppolo vs. Belichick: 1-0 ATS (102.0% ROI)
• Garoppolo vs. Belichick: 1-0 ML (150.0% ROI)

But, again, I very much plan not to bet on the Raiders this year. Quite the opposite.

Data from Action Network, includes playoffs.

Offseason market to exploit

In the words of deceased Raiders owner Al Davis, “Just win, baby.”

Right now, we have a synthetic negative-hold market for the Raiders win total.

• Over 6.5 Wins: +108 (FanDuel)
• Under 6.5 Wins +108 (BetRivers)

So that means that two paths are open to us.

1. Bet both sides, knowing that we can lock in $10 of profit for every $200 invested.
2. Bet the side we like, knowing that the sportsbooks are effectively paying us to take a position.

If you want to arbitrage the market to secure a certain payout, go for it. It’s almost never a bad idea to accept free money.

I’m going to bet into the market with the knowledge that I’m getting in good.

Raiders Under 6.5 Wins (+108, BetRivers)

I’m low on the Raiders relative to many analysts and the market, but I think my pessimism is warranted. I bet the under on their win total of 8.5 last year — when many sharp bettors loved them — and I don’t see how their situation has improved in 2023.

In a best-case scenario, the defense will be average — but it will likely be terrible. QB Jimmy Garoppolo might struggle in the transition from the 49ers to Raiders. He’s unlikely to be significantly better than former QB Derek Carr, but he is much likelier to miss multiple games — and the team’s backup QB situation is now much worse, as the team has downgraded from Jarrett Stidham to Brian Hoyer.

I have the Raiders projected for 6.0 wins.

This is one of my favorite futures bets of 2023.

You can tail the under on BetRivers, where you can get a free bet of up to $500 if your first bet loses! Sign up below and start betting today!

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