2023 Los Angeles Rams Betting Preview

Last year the Rams entered the season as reigning Super Bowl champions with a seeming desire to defend their crown.

Needless to say, they didn’t retain their title, finishing 5-12 and No. 32 in offensive yardage.

This year, they probably have a much more modest and reasonable goal: Rebuild the roster.

If they happen to win more games than they lose, even better.    

In this 2023 Rams preview, we will look at the team’s offseason odds in various markets, my personal team projections and player projections for guys who might have props in the season-long markets.

I'll also dive into my projections for the 53-man roster with notes on each unit as well as the general manager and coaching staff, a schedule analysis, best- and worst-case scenarios, in-season betting angles and the offseason market that I think is most exploitable as of writing.

For fantasy analysis, check out Ian Hartitz’s excellent 2023 Rams preview.

Player stats from Pro Football Reference and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted. Historical sports betting data from Sports Odds History and Action Network (via Bet Labs).

2023 offseason odds

Projections as of Aug. 18.

Offensive Line

• Starters: LT Joe Noteboom, LG Steve Avila, C Brian Allen, RG Coleman Shelton, RT Rob Havenstein
• Backups: T/G Alaric Jackson, G/T Tremayne Anchrum, T/G Logan Bruss, OT Warren McClendon
• Notable Turnover: LG David Edwards (Bills), OT Ty Nsekhe (free agent), C/Gs Matt Skura (free agent) and Jeremiah Kolone (free agent), OGs Oday Aboushi (free agent) and Chandler Brewer (Jaguars), G/T Bobby Evans (Vikings)
• Unit Ranking: No. 32

Noteboom is a 2018 third-rounder who was terrible at LG in Weeks 1-6 of 2019 but good as the swing tackle in 2020-21. He stepped into the starting LT role last year and was livable, but he suffered a torn Achilles in Week 6 and missed the rest of the season.

He has 23 starts for the Rams over the past four years and has allowed just eight sacks on 980 pass rushes, but he’ll need to beat out Jackson for the LT job. If he doesn’t start on the blindside, he could be a candidate for RG.

Avila is an All-American second-round rookie who’s a Week 1 replacement for the departed Edwards at LG. He’s versatile — he started 15 games at LG, 16 at C, 1 RG and 2 RT at TCU — and he didn’t allow a sack in his final season. Allen is a 2018 fourth-rounder who has missed 34 games since 2019 to various injuries. (He was technically on the active roster in 2020, but he didn’t play a single snap as he recovered from a knee injury he suffered the previous year.)

When healthy Allen is an average-at-worst run blocker but poor pass protector (55 pressures on 1,276 pass rushes).

Shelton is a 2018 UDFA who has been with the Rams since 2019. Last year he played a career-high 720 snaps between C and RG and was good in pass blocking (71.3 PFF grade), but he has been a bankrupt run blocker throughout his career.

There’s a chance that he’s already behind Anchrum in the battle for the RG spot, but his overall experience (969 snaps vs. five) gives him an edge (in my opinion). Havenstein is a 31-year-old veteran who has been the team’s starting RT every year since his 2015 rookie season. He has never made a Pro Bowl, but he’s an above-average blocker in both phases and the one guy on this OL who can be unquestionably counted on.

Jackson is a 2021 UDFA. He started at RG last year in Weeks 3-6 and then shifted to LT because of injuries and started two games there before he went on IR with blood clots. Serviceable (though not exceptional) as a two-phase blocker, he’s a candidate to start at LT and maybe RG, where Anchrum is also competing for playing time.

The downside with Anchrum — a 2020 seventh-rounder — is that he has played five offensive snaps in three years and missed almost all of last season with a fractured fibula. The upside with Anchrum is that he was a strong player at Clemson, where he started 2.5 seasons and won two national titles.  

Bruss is a 2022 third-rounder who suffered ACL and MCL tears last preseason and missed all of his rookie year. He has T/G flexibility (he started 25 games at RT, six at RG at Wisconsin) but is unproven in the NFL.

McClendon is a four-star fifth-round rookie with three years of starting RT experience in the SEC and two national championships at Georgia, but he might need to kick inside to guard because of his lack of power. 

Defensive Line

• EDGE Starters: Michael Hoecht, Byron Young
• EDGE Backups: Nick Hampton, Ochaun Mathis, Keir Thomas
• DT Starters: Aaron Donald, Kobie Turner
• DT Backups: Marquise Copeland, Bobby Brown, Jonah Williams, Earnest Brown
• Borderline: EDGE Daniel Hardy, DTs Larrell Murchison and Desjuan Johnson
• Notable Turnover: EDGEs Leonard Floyd (Bills), Terrell Lewis (Bears) and Justin Hollins (Packers), DTs Greg Gaines (Buccaneers) and A’Shawn Robinson (Giants)
• Unit Ranking: No. 30

Hoecht is a 2020 UDFA who played football at Brown, practice squaded his first year with the Rams, played little in 2021 and then was the No. 2 EDGE on the team in snaps last season. Now that Floyd is gone, Hoecht will be the ostensible No. 1 EDGE, but he’s a poor pass rusher (five sacks in 282 opportunities) and average-at-best run defender (66.3 PFF grade last year).

Young is a 25-year-old third-round rookie with great athleticism (4.43-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-2 and 250 pounds) and decent production (12.5 sacks in two seasons at Tennessee), but he’s a raw player with minimal technique.  

Hampton and Mathis are Day 3 rookies. Hampton was productive in his final two seasons (18 sacks, 27 tackles for loss), but he faced weak competition at Appalachian State and is undersized (6-foot-2 and 236 pounds).

Mathis was a four-year contributor at TCU (2019-21) and Nebraska (2022), but he never developed — in fact, he regressed — after his sophomore breakout season (eight sacks, 12.5 tackles for loss). Thomas is a 2022 UDFA who played 71 snaps last year and got zero pressures on 27 pass rushes.

All three of Hampton, Mathis and Thomas could lose their roster spot to Hardy, a 2022 seventh-rounder who had a 52.1 PFF grade as a rookie. 

Donald is a 32-year-old future Hall of Famer who might be the best overall player of our generation. In 2014, he won Defensive Rookie of the Year. Over the next seven years, he was a seven-time first-team All-Pro who won Defensive Player of the Year thrice and never finished outside the top five in voting. And then last season, with everything exploding around him, he merely made the Pro Bowl a ninth time in his nine-year career.

Elite in pass rush and run defense, Donald is one of the greatest football players of all time.

But with almost no support last year he was held to a career-low five sacks (albeit in 11 games), and he could have even less help this year. After Donald, the interior DL is a mess, and it’s hard to predict who will start alongside him or even make the team.

Turner is a third-round rookie who had 43.5 tackles for loss in college, but he might lack the size (6-foot-2 and 288 pounds) to anchor against the run in the NFL.

Copeland is a 2019 UDFA who last year performed well as a rotational player against the run (73.5 PFF grade) but has zero sacks for his career.

Bobby Brown is the name of a character in a Quentin Tarantino movie, probably. He’s also a 2021 fourth-rounder with nine tackles in two years.

Williams is a 2020 UDFA who played a career-high 342 snaps last year and had a career-low 53.6 PFF grade. Earnest Brown is a 2021 fifth-rounder with inside/outside versatility, which means that he sucks almost equally in run defense (48.9 PFF grade) and in pass rush (49.1).

Murchison is a 2020 fifth-rounder with 21 tackles and two sacks in three years. Johnson is a seventh-round rookie who might be the smallest interior DL in the league (6-foot-3 and 252 pounds).

Off-Ball Linebackers

• Starters: Ernest Jones, Christian Rozeboom
• Backups: Jake Hummel
• Notable Turnover: Bobby Wagner (Seahawks)
• Unit Ranking: No. 32

Jones headlines a toilet paper-thin off-ball unit screaming for help after the offseason departure of Wagner. A 2021 third-rounder, Jones is good against the run but a liability in coverage (51.2 PFF grade).

Rozeboom is a 2020 UDFA special teams ace who has played 10 defensive snaps in his career. Hummel is a 2022 UDFA who got four tackles as a rookie… all of them on special teams.

Secondary

• CB Starters: Ahkello Witherspoon, Derion Kendrick, Cobie Durant
• CB Backups: Tre'Vius Tomlinson, Robert Rochell
• S Starters: John Johnson, Jordan Fuller
• S Backups: Russ Yeast, Quentin Lake, Jason Taylor
• Borderline: CB Jordan Jones
• Notable Turnover: CBs Jalen Ramsey (Dolphins), Troy Hill (free agent) and David Long (Raiders), SS Taylor Rapp (Bills), FS Nick Scott (Bengals) 
• Unit Ranking: No. 32

Witherspoon is the theoretical No. 1 CB in a secondary missing all five DBs from last year’s Week 1 nickel package. A 28-year-old journeyman who has been with the 49ers, Seahawks, Steelers and now Rams since early 2020, Witherspoon missed most of last year due to a hamstring injury, but in his four games with the Steelers he had a 42.8 PFF coverage grade.

Kendrick and Durant are Day 3 second-year players slated to start. Kendrick allowed 10.2 yards per target when pressed into action last season. Durant played well in coverage (74.3 PFF grade) as a rookie, but that was on limited action (281 snaps), and he’s a slot-bound defender because of his size (5-foot-11 and 180 pounds).

Tomlinson (nephew of Hall of Fame RB LaDainian Tomlinson) is a Thorpe Award-winning sixth-round rookie with great production (15 passes defended, three interceptions in 2022), speed (4.41-second 40-yard dash) and physicality in coverage and run defense — but he’s incredibly undersized (5-foot-8 and 178 pounds).

Rochell is a 2021 fourth-rounder who played plentifully (323 snaps) and poorly (49.3 PFF grade) on special teams last year. Jones is a 2023 UDFA who hasn’t been hyped during training camp, but he started at slot corner in Week 1 of the preseason, so he now has my attention. That said, he allowed 65 yards receiving and seven receptions on eight targets and 33 snaps, so I’m back to ignoring him.

Johnson is a 2017 third-rounder who played for the Rams for his first four seasons, did a two-year stint with the Browns, and now has returned to L.A. With the Browns, Johnson was used primarily as a deep safety — and his performance suffered — but with the Rams he played more in the box, where he was regularly strong in coverage and against the run.

While most depth charts list Johnson at FS, I could see him shifting back to SS this year, which would then enable Fuller (a league-average 2020 sixth-rounder) to play FS, where he has lined up most with the Rams over the past three years.  

Yeast and Lake are both Day 3 second-year backups who contribute most on special teams. Taylor (no relation to the Hall of Famer with the same name) is a seventh-round rookie with a good athletic profile (4.50-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot and 204 pounds), and the ability to play both safety spots and contribute on special teams. 

Specialists

• Kicker: Tanner Brown
• Punter: Ethan Evans
• Holder: Ethan Evans
• Long Snapper: Alex Ward
• Kick Returner: Tutu Atwell
• Punt Returner: Tutu Atwell
• Notable Turnover: K Matt Gay (Colts), P Riley Dixon (Broncos), LS Matt Orzech (Packers), KR/PR Brandon Powell (Vikings)

Brown is a 2023 UDFA who was a first-team All-American punter and second-team All-American kicker in the junior college ranks at College of the Canyons before transferring to UNLV and then Oklahoma State, where he converted all but one of his 23 field goal attempts as a senior. 

Evans is a small-school seventh-round rookie who started all four years of college and averaged 45.7 yards per punt as a Division II first-team All-American senior. A jacked 6-foot-4 and 231 pounds, Evans is not your typical punter. Ward is a 2023 UDFA who was the No. 1 LS for four years at UCF and a finalist for the Patrick Mannelly Award (given to the best LS in college football) in his two final seasons.

Atwell was a subpar return man as a rookie (5.4 yards per punt, 17.4 yards per kick), but with Powell gone he’s the seeming frontrunner to be the team’s top returner in 2023. I feel like there’s some sort of larger lesson in there.

Schedule analysis

Here are my notes on the Rams’ strength of schedule and a pivotal stretch of games that I think will shape how their season unfolds.

• Strength of Schedule: No. 14
• Home Division: NFC West
• Opposing Division: NFC East, AFC North
• Key Stretch: Weeks 1-5
• Opponents: at SEA, vs. SF, at CIN, at IND, vs. PHI

The Rams have a moderate schedule based on the market win totals of their opponents, but their opening stretch could threaten to sabotage the entire campaign.

In the first month of the season, they play three-of-four away. In Weeks 1-2 they have divisional matchups as sizable underdogs against the Seahawks and 49ers. They could lose both games. After that, they travel East as underdogs of more than a touchdown to play the Bengals on Monday Night Football.

Let’s say they’re 0-3 — and then in Week 4 they have another road game (with a one-day rest disadvantage) in the Eastern Time Zone in Indianapolis vs. the Colts, who aren’t a tough opponent, but the circumstances could present a challenge if the Rams choose to travel back to L.A. between games instead of staying in the Midwest. Let’s say that the Rams suffer a situation-based loss. That makes them 0-4 — and then they return home as underdogs of almost a touchdown to host the Eagles: 0-5.

As bad as 2022 was for the Rams, 2023 could feel even worse if the team underwhelms in its opening stretch.

2023 worst-case scenario

As a pessimist, I think this is the realistic worst-case scenario for the 2023 Rams.

• HC Sean McVay begins to question his abilities after a tough 0-5 start, which results in his decision to relinquish playcalling duties.
• OC Mike LaFleur proves with his inept playcalling that he was part of the problem with the 2021-22 Jets offense.
• DC Raheem Morris coordinates the worst defense in football, including the CFL.
• QB Matthew Stafford suffers a concussion in Week 6 and opts to sit out until the team returns from its Week 10 bye.
• RB Cam Akers is benched in Week 7 on Monday Night Football after he and McVay are caught on TV yelling at each other on the sideline, and the team cuts him the next day. 
• WR Cooper Kupp is sent to the 49ers at the trade deadline early in Week 9.
• The OL plays like a unit that has no first-rounders on it.
• EDGEs Michael Hoecht and Byron Young combine for six sacks.
• DT Aaron Donald suffers a Week 8 hamstring injury, which is just significant enough to keep teams from trading for him at the Oct. 31 deadline.
• LBs Ernest Jones and Christian Rozeboom are so bad in coverage that Morris starts experimenting with personnel packages of four DLs and seven DBs.
• The CBs struggle with continuity, consistency and communication all year, culminating in a Week 18 humiliation at the hands of Kupp, who goes off against them for 12-177-3 receiving in a 38-13 victory that clinches the No. 1 seed for the 49ers.
• K Tanner Brown, P Ethan Evans and LS Alex Ward all play like rookies and separately commit game-losing mistakes in the first half of the season.
• Rams finish 5-12 (which gives them no chance to get a top QB in the draft), McVay retires from football two days after the 49ers win the Super Bowl (the timing of which gives the Rams a reduced chance of hiring a top candidate), the team names Morris as the new HC in late February (which is an uninspiring decision) and then Stafford and Donald announce their retirements in late March (which is after the rush of free agency, so the Rams have fewer replacement options available to them at QB and DT).

2023 best-case scenario

As an idealist, I think this is the realistic best-case scenario for the 2023 Rams.

• HC Sean McVay has the best pure playcalling season of his career and displays a heretofore unseen in-game decision-making aggressiveness that would make Kevin Kelley swoon.
• OC Mike LaFleur morphs himself into a human glove for McVay’s metaphorical hand.
• DC Raheem Morris smoke-and-mirrors his way to a No. 19 defensive finish in scoring.
• QB Matthew Stafford plays all 17 games and passes for 4,500-plus yards.
• RB Cam Akers puts up 1,500 yards from scrimmage.
• WR Cooper Kupp — thanks to a Week 18 onslaught against the 49ers — becomes the first player in NFL history with 2,000 yards receiving and wins Offensive Player of the Year for the second time in three seasons.
• The OL — full of guys who have been together for years — plays like a league-average unit with established continuity.
• EDGEs Michael Hoecht and Byron Young combine for 12 sacks.
• DT Aaron Donald leads the league with 25 tackles for loss and racks up 15 sacks as he finishes with yet another first-team All-Pro and No. 2 in Defensive Player of the Year voting.
• LBs Ernest Jones and Christian Rozeboom play just well enough in coverage to avoid being clear defensive marks.
• The CBs begin to play with a unified and physical “come and get it” attitude whenever Tre’Vius Tomlinson is inserted into the starting lineup in Week 3, and by the final month of the season the secondary is playing well enough to masquerade as mediocre.
• K Tanner Brown, P Ethan Evans, and LS Alex Ward prove that it pays to go cheap at the specialist positions.
• Rams finish 11-6, defeat the Saints on the road thanks to a controversial no-call on a pass interference penalty, upset the 49ers on the road as McVay outduels Shanahan with his play design and sequencing, and then finally lose by 13 points on the road to the Eagles in the NFC Championship. 

In-season angles

I view the Rams as a strong “bet against” team, but one with a wide range of outcomes that I’ll be quick to adjust my prior assumptions on based on how it looks early in the year.

That said, if there were any points this year when I’d think about betting on the Rams, the season opener would probably be one of them.

• McVay in Week 1: 5-1 ATS (62.0% ROI)
• McVay in Week 1: 5-1 ML (31.4% ROI)

And I might consider McVay following a defeat or as underdog — but only ATS, because I don’t trust this team on the ML.

• McVay Off a Loss: 22-13-2 ATS (21.0% ROI)
• McVay as Underdog: 17-13-1 ATS (10.1% ROI)

For fading the Rams, I think it’s notable that McVay has performed poorly against perhaps the two offensive HCs who know him the best.

• McVay vs. Shanahan: 3-10 ATS (46.5% ROI for faders)
• McVay vs. Shanahan: 4-9 ML (46.1% ROI for faders)
• McVay vs. Matt LaFleur: 0-3 ATS (93.3% ROI for faders)
• McVay vs. Matt LaFleur: 0-3 ML (53.8% ROI for faders)

The main reason I think the Rams are fadable is their defense, which I have ranked No. 32. Their offense, though, I expect to be no worse than average — and if Stafford is fully healthy, then the offense could be in the top 10.

And that leads me to overs. When the Rams are underdogs and thus in a position where we can reasonably expect them to give up points and need to score points to catch up, I believe the overs will be exploitable.

Sometimes games unfold differently for teams based on whether they’re at home or on the road, but that hasn’t been the case with the Rams. As underdogs, they’ve been profitable to the over regardless of location.

• McVay Home Over as Underdog: 6-3 (29.8% ROI)
• McVay Road Over as Underdog: 13-9 (14.8% ROI)

When I say that the Rams are a “bet against” team, what I really mean is this: They have a “bet against” defense.

Data from Action Network, includes playoffs.

Offseason market to exploit

We have a low-hold market on the Rams win total.

• Over 6.5: +110 (FanDuel)
• Under 6.5: -115 (DraftKings)

In such a market, where the sportsbooks collectively have only a 1.11% edge, we have more of a margin for error than usual and thus more incentive to take a shot.

And I have the Rams projected for 6.9 wins, which means that I technically see value on the over, especially at plus odds.

But I hate betting the over on win totals. Hate. Actual hatred. Boiling rage.

Firstly, the win total market tends to be inflated, so why would I want to bet an over in a market that I know is unfriendly to overs?

Secondly, if I’m bullish on a team — and for the purposes of talking about the Rams in relation to this bet we can say that I’m relatively bullish — why would I want to lock up my money for about five months to get a pay off of only +110 odds? If I like a team enough to think that it’s mispriced in one market, then maybe that means it’s also mispriced in another market — one that offers odds far longer than +110.

And that leads me to this bet.

Rams to Win NFC (+4500, DraftKings) 

As I said earlier, the Rams have a wide range of outcomes. This team (sort of “this team”) won a Super Bowl just 18 months ago. It still has the same HC/DC combo, QB/WR tandem and HOF DT.

If I like this team to go over 6.5 wins, then that probably means I’m assuming a number of factors that could carry this team far beyond just 6.5 wins.

If the Rams go over 6.5 wins, then there’s a pretty decent chance that McVay is on his game, Stafford and Kupp are healthy and Donald is playing near his peak. Now, if that’s the case… shouldn’t I expect the Rams to have a decent chance to make the playoffs in a soft conference?

Their odds to make the playoffs at DraftKings are +310. If I like the Rams over 6.5 wins, why wouldn’t I just bet them to get into the postseason?

And we can take this a step further.

Imagine that the Rams are in the playoffs. What does that mean? What is likely to have happened to put them in that position?

If McVay is on his game and Stafford and Kupp are healthy, the offense could be in the top 10. Maybe the top six. I think the OL is terrible, but we’ve seen how good playcallers — especially in a West Coast system — can scheme around OL inadequacies.

I also think the defense is horrible, but defenses are hard to project and can be extremely volatile year to year. And if Donald is playing near his peak, he alone could elevate the entire unit from horrendous to almost average.

And if this team is better than we expect — if it’s competing to win the NFC West as we approach the deadline — what’s to stop swashbuckling GM Les Snead from making some trades to acquire veterans who can contribute right away and upgrade their various units? He has done it before.

So if the Rams are in the playoffs, there’s a decent chance that they will have a top-10 offense, an average-ish defense and maybe even a somewhat reinforced roster.

Could a team with those features win enough postseason games in a weak conference to make the Super Bowl? Yes — because it happened with the Rams two years ago.

If I’m willing to bet over 6.5 wins, then I should probably be willing to bet the Rams to make the playoffs or maybe win their division. And if I’m willing to do that… then I might as well bet them to win the NFC.

It’s not likely to happen, but that’s why the odds are +4500.

You can tail the 45/1 longshot on DraftKings Sportsbook, where you can also get up to $1,000 in DK Dollars when you sign up for a new account below!

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