2023 Miami Dolphins Betting Preview

Last year was a “best of times, worst of times” season for the Miami Dolphins. They went 9-8 and made the playoffs under new HC Mike McDaniel. Their offense was explosive as QB Tua Tagovailoa averaged a league-high 9.2 adjusted yards per attempt. The team’s play helped the fanbase forget about the scandals involving the firing of former HC Brian Flores and the recruitment of Sean Payton, Tom Brady and Deshaun Watson. Last year was an unquestioned success for the organization.

At the same time, the defense regressed to No. 24 in scoring as the team allowed more points (399) than it scored (397). Tagovailoa suffered a series of concussions, causing him to miss the postseason game (as well as several others) and placing his NFL future in doubt. The team lost its 2023 first-rounder (and 2024 third-rounder), and owner Stephen Ross was fined $1.5M and suspended for six games. 

Last year ended with some serious questions. This year, the Dolphins hope to answer those questions with more wins, more points and more defense on the way to a Super Bowl.

In this 2023 Dolphins preview, we will look at the team’s offseason odds in various markets, my personal team projections and player projections for guys who might have props in the season-long markets.

I'll also dive into my projections for the 53-man roster with notes on each unit as well as the general manager and coaching staff, a schedule analysis, best- and worst-case scenarios, in-season betting angles and the offseason market that I think is most exploitable as of writing.

For fantasy analysis, check out Ian Hartitz’s excellent 2023 Dolphins preview.

Player stats from Pro Football Reference and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted. Historical sports betting data from Sports Odds History and Action Network (via Bet Labs).

2023 Miami Dolphins offseason odds

Projections as of June 28.

Offensive Line

• Starters: LT Terron Armstead, LG Liam Eichenberg, C Connor Williams, RG Robert Hunt, RT Isaiah Wynn
• Backups: T/G Austin Jackson, G/T Robert Jones, G/C Dan Feeney, OT Kendall Lamm
• Borderline: OTs Ryan Hayes and Cedric Ogbuehi
• Notable Turnover: RT Brandon Shell (Bills), OT Greg Little (Texans)
• Unit Ranking: No. 19

Armstead is a franchise LT who signed with the Dolphins last offseason after nine years with the Saints. With four Pro Bowl selections in the past half-decade, Armstead is a near-elite pass blocker who allowed just one sack in 2022 and has never had a PFF grade below 75. 

Eichenberg is a 2021 second-rounder who has started 26 games since entering the league, but he’s a plane crash in pass protection (89 pressures allowed) and a train wreck in run blocking (42.5 PFF grade last year). With a poor camp, he could lose his job. 

Williams is a second-contract transplant who joined the Dolphins last year after four seasons with the Cowboys. An above-average blocker in both phases who has steadily improved throughout his career, he shifted to C in 2022 and played well there — but he started at LG for four years before that. It’s not unthinkable that the Dolphins could shift him back to his natural position (and bench Eichenberg in the process) if they find someone else who can play the pivot.

Hunt is a 2022 second-rounder who played at RT as a rookie before kicking inside to RG, where he has since started 34 games. He’s an above-average blocker who has never had a PFF grade below 65. Wynn is a one-year reclamation project with massive upside.

A 2018 first-rounder who played well at LT for the 2019-21 Patriots, he moved to RT last year and had the worst campaign of his career — but maybe he could rebound to his previous form with another year at the position.

He’s not a guarantee to win a starting job in his first year with the team, but I think he can beat out Jackson, a 2020 first-rounder who has tried out LT, LG and RT over the past three years and been terrible at all of them.

Jones is a 2021 UDFA with inside/outside flexibility and nine starts for the Dolphins since his rookie season. He outplayed Eichenberg last year as his injury fill-in (58.5 PFF grade vs. 39.8) and could take his starting job with a strong camp. 

Feeney has only one season with a PFF grade above 65, but he’s a 29-year-old veteran with 64 starts and the ability to play all three interior positions. If he plays well in training camp, he could compete for the starting C job and allow the Dolphins to move Williams back to LG. 

Lamm is competing with Hayes and Ogbuehi for one roster spot, but I’m giving him the edge for now. He’s a 31-year-old journeyman with 29 starts at tackle and six seasons of PFF pass-blocking grades above 65. Hayes is a seventh-round rookie project with good athleticism (5.18-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-6 and 298 pounds) and two years of starting experience at LT at Michigan. 

Ogbuehi is a 31-year-old former first-rounder with 35 starts and the proven ability to line up at both tackle spots. He wasn’t a regular starter for the Seahawks or Jets the past two seasons, and he’s mediocre as a pass protector, but he shows well as a run blocker.

Defensive Line

• EDGE Starters: Jaelan Phillips, Bradley Chubb
• EDGE Backups: Emmanuel Ogbah, Andrew Van Ginkel, Malik Reed
• DT Starters: Christian Wilkins, Zach Sieler
• DT Backups: Raekwon Davis, Brandon Pili
• Notable Turnover: EDGEs Melvin Ingram (free agent) and Trey Flowers (free agent), DT John Jenkins (Raiders)
• Unit Ranking: No. 10

Phillips is a 2021 first-rounder with 10 sacks in each of the past two years (including playoffs). He’s already a near-elite pass rusher with the opportunity to improve. Chubb is a 27-year-old veteran whom the team acquired last year via a midseason trade and signed to a five-year $110M extension. 

A two-time Pro Bowler, he had 10 sacks last season and was successful under Fangio with the 2019-21 Broncos — but he has missed 25 games since 2019. If he happens to suffer an injury this year, the Dolphins could look to add a stopgap veteran — maybe Ingram, who had eight sacks with the team in 2022. (Even if Chubb stays healthy, the Dolphins might think about bringing Ingram back anyway.)

Ogbah missed half of the 2022 campaign with a season-ending triceps injury, but he had 21 sacks in 2020-21 in his first two years with the team and holds up in run defense, probably because he rotated between the interior and edge early in his career (with the 2016-18 Browns) and can still bump inside if needed. 

Van Ginkel is a 2019 fifth-rounder who has had PFF grades above 65 as a pass rusher and run defender in each of the past three years. Because of his size (6-foot-4 and 236 pounds), he offers the team scheme versatility with his ability to play off-ball LB. 

Reed is a 2019 UDFA who had 17 sacks as a rotational rusher on the 2019-21 Broncos under Fangio. He joins the Dolphins as a sharp offseason addition after a one-year sojourn with the Steelers.

Wilkins is a 2019 first-rounder who has always been strong as a run defender and who has incrementally improved as a pass rusher, hitting career highs last year with 71 tackles and seven sacks (including playoffs). 

Sieler is a contract-year veteran who has spent most of his career with the Dolphins after the Ravens (who drafted him as a 2018 seventh-rounder) cut him in 2019. He’s a quiet but key contributor who hit a career-high seven sacks last year and has a PFF run-defense grade above 65 in each of the past four seasons.

Davis is a bit of an oddity: He’s a true A-gap DT and has the size (6-foot-7 and 335 pounds) to play as a zero-technique space eater — but he’s a liability against the run with sub-40 PFF grades in each of the past two seasons. S

till, the 2020 second-rounder is about average as a pass rusher and can contribute 500 steady-ish snaps a year. Pili is a priority UDFA rookie whom the Dolphins gave $100,000 guaranteed at signing and who has a good chance to make the team as Jenkins’ replacement because of the shallow DT depth chart. With his size (6-foot-3 and 316 pounds), he can rotate in with Davis at nose. 

Off-Ball Linebackers

• Starters: Jerome Baker, David Long
• Backups: Duke Riley, Channing Tindall
• Notable Turnover: Elandon Roberts (Steelers)
• Unit Ranking: No. 3

Baker is a 2018 third-rounder who has started 70 games for the Dolphins since entering the league. He’s inconsistent year-to-year against the run (69.6 PFF grade in 2022, 42.4 in 2021), but he’s an above-average pass defender and a strong pass rusher (20 sacks since 2020) thanks to his off-ball/edge versatility. 

Long signed a two-year $11M deal this offseason to leave the Titans and replace Roberts as a starter. A classic downhill backer (89 PFF run-defense grade in 2022), Long is average in coverage but vigorous as a situational blitzer (28 pressures on 100 pass rushes over the past two years). He and Baker should complement each other well.

Riley is a veteran journeyman who has been the No. 3 LB since joining the team in 2021. He does nothing well, but he also doesn’t do anything too poorly. 

Tindall is a 2022 third-rounder who contributed on special teams as a rookie after playing the José Carreras role to Nakobe Dean and Quay Walker’s Luciano Pavarotti and Plácido Domingo on the championship-winning 2021 Georgia team. (Yes, that’s a Three Tenors reference. It’s also an indirect Seinfeld reference. Layers upon layers.) Ideally, Tindall will develop in his second season and push Riley for playing time.

Secondary

• CB Starters: Jalen Ramsey, Xavien Howard, Kader Kohou
• CB Backups: Cam Smith, Keion Crossen, Noah Igbinoghene
• S Starters: Jevon Holland, DeShon Elliott
• S Backups: Verone McKinley, Elijah Campbell
• IR/PUP: CB Nik Needham (Achilles), S Brandon Jones (knee)
• Borderline: CB Justin Bethel
• Notable Turnover: CB Byron Jones (retired), SS Eric Rowe (Panthers)
• Unit Ranking: No. 4

Ramsey is a 28-year-old three-time first-team All-Pro and six-time Pro Bowler with the size (6-foot-1 and 209 pounds), athleticism (4.41-second 40-yard dash) and skill set to match up with any pass catcher. Acquired this offseason via trade, Ramsey replaces Jones as the corner opposite Howard and immediately upgrades the entire defense. 

He’s one of the few shadow corners who can capably tail receivers inside, and — given Fangio’s inventiveness — he might actually play as a power slot defender in three-wide sets if that allows the team to get its three best corners on the field together. 

In Ramsey, the Dolphins have a shutdown chess piece on a Hall-of-Fame trajectory. It’s just a bonus that he’s a strong run supporter and an excellent blitzer (19 pressures on 65 career pass rushes).

Howard is a boom/bust 2016 second-rounder who has spent his entire career with the Dolphins. A four-time Pro Bowler, he has twice topped the league in interceptions (2018, 2020), and he leads the NFL with 28 interceptions (in 87 games) since his rookie season. Compare that to Ramsey (19 in 108 games), who entered the league the same year. 

But Howard’s ball-hawking tendencies can be exploited by sharp play-callers, and last year he allowed an embarrassing 66.7% catch rate and 10.5 yards per target. Hopefully, the additions of Fangio and Ramsey will help Howard return to his 2020 first-team All-Pro form (52.2%, 7.7).

Kohou is a small-school 2022 UDFA who stepped up as a rookie to man the slot with above-average play (6.2 yards per target), and he has a shot to stick there in 2023 given that Needham (the team’s 2020-21 slot corner) could start the year on the PUP because of the season-ending injury he suffered last year. 

But there’s also a chance that Kohou could be replaced in the slot by Ramsey to make room for Smith, an instinctive second-round rookie with great length (6-foot-1) and athleticism (4.43-second 40-yard dash, 11-foot-2 broad jump).

Crossen is a 29-year-old journeyman who has outside/inside versatility and played a necessity-driven career-high 435 snaps for the 2022 Dolphins in his first year with the team. He has never had a PFF coverage grade of even 65 — but he has been a core special teams contributor everywhere he has played. 

Igbinoghene is a 2020 first-rounder who has never gained the trust of the team, and sadly his 2022 PFF coverage grade of 47.4 is not the worst mark of his career. He might actually lose a camp battle to Bethel, a 33-year-old journeyman who has perimeter and slot experience and played a team-high 405 special teams snaps for the Dolphins last year.

Holland is a 2021 second-rounder who followed up a strong rookie season with a solid second one. He’s an above-average centerfield safety with no clear vulnerabilities. Elliott’s on his second straight one-year contract and third team in three seasons, but he has 35 starts since 2020 and can play both safety spots. 

He has never had a PFF run-defense or coverage grade below 60 and will likely open the season as the injury fill-in for Jones (the team’s 2021-22 SS), who suffered a torn ACL in Week 7 and could start 2023 on PUP. 

McKinley is a 2022 UDFA who gave the team 252 quality snaps last year, although he lacks the ability to play in the box because of his horrendous run support (33.9 PFF grade). Campbell is a core special teams player who made his bones at three different colleges (2014-17), the offseason Browns (2018), the AAF (2019), the XFL (2020) and then the Jets practice squad (2020) before finally catching on with the Dolphins two years ago. 

Specialists

• Kicker: Jason Sanders
• Punter: Jake Bailey
• Holder: Jake Bailey
• Long Snapper: Blake Ferguson
• Kick Returner: Braxton Berrios
• Punt Returner: Braxton Berrios
• Borderline: P Michael Turk
• Notable Turnover: P Thomas Morstead (Jets)

Sanders is a 2018 seventh-rounder who has been with the Dolphins for his entire career. He was a first-team All-Pro in 2020 but can be inconsistent: In two seasons he has had a conversion rate of at least 90%, but in his other three seasons his highest conversion rate is 81.3%.

Bailey was a first-team All-Pro two years ago for the Patriots, who released him in March due to declining production. In 2020, he was top-five with 48.7 yards per punt and 56.4% of his punts downed inside the 20-yard line. Last year, he was respectively Nos. 34 and 25 (42.1 yards, 32.4%). He could lose a camp battle to Turk, an undrafted rookie who averaged 48.4 yards per punt (and successfully completed two passes on fake field goal attempts as the holder) in his two years at Oklahoma. 

Ferguson is a 2020 sixth-rounder who has been the team’s LS since his rookie season. Based on my extensive research, he doesn’t seem to be related to Fergie, Duchess of York, or Fergie, Dolphins co-owner.

 Berrios should take over for Wilson and Mostert on punt and kick returns. He was a first-team All-Pro returner in 2021 and has career marks of 11.4 yards per punt return and 24.9 yards per kick return. Last year, those numbers would’ve been good for Nos. 3 and 6 among qualified return men. 

Schedule analysis

Here are my notes on the Dolphins’ strength of schedule and a pivotal stretch of games that I think will shape how their season unfolds.

• Strength of Schedule: No. 26
• Home Division: AFC East
• Opposing Division: AFC West, NFC East
• Key Stretch: Weeks 1-4
• Opponents: at LAC, at NE, vs. DEN, at BUF

The Dolphins have the seventh-hardest schedule based on the market win totals of their 2023 opponents. They went to the playoffs last year, they have a tough division and they’re matched up against the AFC West and NFC East in interdivisional play — so that’s what you get.

And it’s unfortunate for them that they start the year with three-of-four away. Their home-field advantage is largest when the weather is hot and humid, and that’s the first month of the season. Instead of dominating dehydrated teams in the Florida sun at Hard Rock Stadium, they spend most of their time on the road in Weeks 1-4, starting with back-to-back away games against the Chargers (favorites) and Patriots (divisional rivals on Sunday Night Football). 

After that, they get their one home game in this stretch — a “gimme” against the Broncos — but this feels like a classic “trap game” given that the Broncos practice and play at elevation and are less likely than the average team to get gassed early in the year. Plus, they go back on the road in Week 4 to play the Bills (favorites, divisional rivals), so the Dolphins could get caught in Week 3 looking ahead.

The Dolphins will probably go 2-2 and be in a fine spot heading into Week 5, but there’s an underappreciated chance that they open the year 1-3 or even 0-4. The path to a winless start to the season is straightforward. 

2023 worst-case scenario

As a pessimist, I think this is the realistic worst-case scenario for the 2023 Dolphins.

• McDaniel flies a little too close to the sun with his scheme experiments, causing the offense to regress.
• Fangio works his magic — but his magic takes until the second half of the season to start working.
• Tagovailoa suffers a concussion in Week 5 and decides to sit out the rest of the season regardless of whatever results he gets from his neurological tests. As he says in his press conference, “I’m stepping away for a little bit. I’m not sure… I’m not sure what the future holds. I want to be here, but… I’m not sure.” 
• Cook doesn’t sign with the team, Mostert breaks down and Wilson and Achane form a low-volume backfield.
• Hill faces additional charges and the Dolphins cut him.
• Waddle faces regular double coverage without HIll.
• Chosen changes his name back to “Robby Anderson” in an attempt to regain his previous ability — but it’s all for naught, and he’s waived in Week 11.
• Smythe sucks.
• Eichenberg blows a blocking assignment, which results in Tagovailoa’s Week 5 concussion.
• Jackson beats out Wynn for the starting RT job — and then his missed assignment gets backup QB Mike White injured in Week 13.
• Chubb misses six games to injury.
• Kohou wins the slot CB job and is routinely targeted and exposed as teams seek to avoid Ramsey’s coverage.
• Howard allows 1,000 yards receiving as he aggressively gambles for interceptions to prove to himself that he — and not Ramsey — is the true alpha corner in Miami.
• Sanders has one of his bad seasons.
• Bailey wins the P job and is as bad as he was last year.
• Dolphins finish 6-11 to miss the playoffs, the defense endures an onslaught of offseason departures and Tagovailoa announces his retirement from football.

2023 best-case scenario

As an idealist, I think this is the realistic best-case scenario for the 2023 Dolphins.

• McDaniel launches the offense to No. 3 in scoring.
• Fangio transforms the defense into a top-five unit.
• Tagovailoa again leads the league in AY/A and wins MVP as he plays a full 17-game season.
• Cook doesn’t sign with the team, and Mostert, Wilson and Achane form an ever-fresh and highly efficient three-man committee.
• Hill sees the charges against him dropped on his way to yet another first-team All-Pro season.
• Waddle has a career-high 1,500 yards receiving.
• Chosen changes his name back to “Robby Anderson.”
• Smythe sucks — but it doesn’t matter.
• Eichenberg loses his starting LG job in training camp.
• Wynn beats out Jackson at RT and rebounds to his pre-2022 form.
• Chubb misses only one game and becomes the unofficial leader of a ferocious unit, which he dubs “Miami Sound Machine” because of how hard and loud the defense hits — and then the team starts playing “Conga” after every win.
• Kohou plays well as a rotational No. 4 CB while Ramsey dominates in the slot and Smith mans the perimeter on his way to a top-five finish in Defensive Rookie of the Year voting.
• Howard has an NFL-high nine interceptions as he makes teams pay for avoiding Ramsey’s coverage.
• Sanders has one of his good seasons.
• Bailey wins the P job and reverts back to his 2020 first-team All-Pro form.
• Dolphins go 13-4, secure the No. 2 seed, defeat the Chargers on Super Wild Card Weekend, sneak by the Bengals in the Divisional Round and then host and beat the Bills in the AFC Championship to make the Super Bowl, where apprentice bests master as the Dolphins overpower the 49ers with an 11-point victory. 

In-season angles

I view the Dolphins as a neutral betting team.

That said, I believe they offer the most advantage at home and as underdogs.

• Tagovailoa at Home: 12-5 ATS (35.1% ROI)
• Tagovailoa at Home: 13-4 ML (39.6% ROI)
• Tagovailoa as Underdog: 10-5-1 ATS (25.9% ROI)
• Tagovailoa as Underdog: 8-8 ML (29.8% ROI)

They’ve also done well in division with Tagovailoa.

• Tagovailoa in Division: 7-3-1 ATS (31.4% ROI)
• Tagovailoa at Home: 7-4 ML (35.8% ROI)

I’m not begging to bet against the Dolphins this year, but it’s notable that McDaniel (in an admittedly small sample) has struggled against the Jets in a personal matchup with HC Robert Saleh, who worked with him as DC on the 2017-20 49ers.

• McDaniel vs. Jets: 0-2 ATS (92.2% ROI for faders)
• McDaniel vs. Jets: 1-1 ATS (24.0% ROI for faders)

But, again, I have no plans to bet against the Dolphins.

Data from Action Network, includes playoffs.

Offseason market to exploit

I don’t like the value in the team futures market, so I’m looking to the awards market.

Tua Tagovailoa MVP +2200 (Caesars)

Let’s look at the past 10 MVP winners (regular season stats only).

• Patrick Mahomes (2022): 0.178 EPA + CPOE (No. 1), 8.5 AY/A (No. 2)
• Aaron Rodgers (2021): 0.176 EPA + CPOE (No. 1), 8.8 AY/A (No. 2)
• Aaron Rodgers (2020): 0.217 EPA + CPOE (No. 1), 9.6 AY/A (No. 1)
• Lamar Jackson (2019): 0.191 EPA + CPOE (No. 1), 8.9 AY/A (No. 4)
• Patrick Mahomes (2018): 0.205 EPA + CPOE (No. 2), 9.6 AY/A (No. 1)
• Tom Brady (2017): 0.163 EPA + CPOE (No. 1), 8.4 AY/A (No. 3)
• Matt Ryan (2016): 0.206 EPA + CPOE (No. 1), 10.1 AY/A (No. 1)
• Cam Newton (2015): 0.112 EPA + CPOE (No. 8), 8.3 AY/A (No. 5)
• Aaron Rodgers (2014): 0.191 EPA + CPOE (No. 2), 9.5 AY/A (No. 1)
• Peyton Manning (2013): 0.210 EPA + CPOE (No. 1), 9.3 AY/A (No. 2)

Here’s what we should take away from this: Unless a guy (a QB) has paradigm-shifting rushing ability like Newton or Jackson, he almost certainly needs to be top-two (and definitely top-three) in both EPA + CPOE and AY/A to win MVP.

Because the league is so driven by the passing game, excellent QB efficiency tends to result in lots of wins — as long as a QB stays healthy enough to play enough contests.

So in trying to find future MVP winners, we shouldn’t be looking at QBs on teams likely to win lots of games. We should instead be looking at QBs with a shot to have incredibly efficient seasons — because if they do then they’ll win games and check that unofficial box for MVP eligibility.

And that brings us to Tagovailoa. Last year, he was top-two in these all-important metrics.

• EPA + CPOE: 0.148 (No. 2)
• AY/A: 9.2 (No. 1)

We’ve already seen an MVP-level performance from Tua — and yet he’s outside the top eight in consensus odds to win the award.

We’ve already seen two different QBs win MVP recently in a Shanahan (or Shanahan-style) offense: 2016 Ryan and 2020-21 Rodgers. And they did it in the season immediately following their first year in the offense, when QBs generally have an adjustment period. At least Ryan (2015) and Rodgers (2019) did.

But Tagovailoa was immediately productive in the offense, which is a great sign — and he’s entering his second year, so he could be even better.

If Tagovailoa stays healthy and repeats (or improves upon) his 2022 performance, I expect the Dolphins to compete for a top-two seed, which will make him live to win the award.

The odds are against him, but his real probability to win MVP is greater than the 4.35% implied probability of his +2200 odds at Caesars.

You can tail the Tua MVP future on Caesars Sportsbook, where you can also get your first bet of up to $1,250 completely on the house when you sign up for a new account below!

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