2023 Minnesota Vikings Betting Preview

The Minnesota Vikings last year jumped from 8-9 to 13-4 and won the NFC North in their first season under GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and HC Kevin O’Connell. At a glance, 2022 was an unqualified success.

And yet the Vikings actually had a worse point differential (-3) than they had the year prior (-1), and they lost at home to the talent-devoid Giants in the first round of the playoffs. 

Despite their massive improvement in record, they were effectively the same team. This year, the Vikings would once again like to win their division and make the playoffs, but more importantly they’d like to improve — or at least make some progress on the path to long-term improvement, even if that means taking a short-term step back.

In this 2023 Vikings preview, we will look at the team’s offseason odds in various markets, my personal team projections and player projections for guys who might have props in the season-long markets.

I'll also dive into my projections for the 53-man roster with notes on each unit as well as the general manager and coaching staff, a schedule analysis, best- and worst-case scenarios, in-season betting angles and the offseason market that I think is most exploitable as of writing.

For fantasy analysis, check out Ian Hartitz’s excellent 2023 Vikings preview.

Player stats from Pro Football Reference and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted. Historical sports betting data from Sports Odds History and Action Network (via Bet Labs).

Player stats from Pro Football Reference and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted. Historical sports betting data from Sports Odds History and Action Network (via Bet Labs).

2023 offseason odds

Projections as of July 15.

Offensive Line

• Starters: LT Christian Darrisaw, LG Ezra Cleveland, C Garrett Bradbury, RG Ed Ingram, RT Brian O'Neill
• Backups: OT Blake Brandel, G/C Austin Schlottmann, G/T Oli Udoh, OT Vederian Lowe
• Borderline: G/C Chris Reed, C/OL Alan Ali
• Unit Ranking: No. 18

Darrisaw is a 2021 first-rounder who allowed just 23 pressures last year and had a 90.6 PFF run-blocking grade. That he didn’t get even Pro Bowl recognition is ridiculous. He’s on the edge of elite. Cleveland is a 2020 second-rounder who paves the road as a run blocker (79.7 PFF grade in 2022) but turns the stile as a pass blocker (55 pressures). 

Bradbury converted from TE to OL in college and was a Rimington Trophy-winning All-American as a senior, but in his four years with the Vikings the former first-rounder has been a pass-protection liability. Ingram is a 2022 second-rounder who allowed 63 pressures and 11 sacks as a rookie.

O’Neill is a second-contract veteran who made the Pro Bowl in 2021 and has been a strong bookend presence for the Vikings since his 2018 rookie season.

Brandel is a 2020 sixth-rounder who has given the Vikings 340 snaps of subpar play as a backup LT and inline TE over the past two years. Schlottmann is a 2018 UDFA who joined the Vikings last year and has experience at all three interior spots, but he’s a net negative in run blocking and pass protecting.

Udoh is a 2019 sixth-rounder who should be the top OL backup. He can play every position except for C and has allowed just one sack on 752 pass rushes. Lowe is a 2022 sixth-rounder who had a 35.1 PFF grade last year on 33 LT snaps.

Reed (a journeyman with 30 starts, one year on the team, G/C flexibility and sufficient ability) and Ali (a rookie UDFA with 54 starts and experience at every OL spot) could push for roster spots given the unimpressive quality of the team’s depth.

Defensive Line

• EDGE Starters: Danielle Hunter, Marcus Davenport
• EDGE Backups: D.J. Wonnum, Patrick Jones, Andre Carter
• DT Starters: Harrison Phillips, Dean Lowry
• DT Backups: Khyiris Tonga, James Lynch, Esezi Otomewo, Jaquelin Roy
• Borderline: EDGE Luiji Vilain, DTs Jonathan Bullard and Ross Blacklock 
• Notable Turnover: EDGE Za’Darius Smith (Browns), DT Dalvin Tomlinson (Browns)
• Unit Ranking: No. 12

Hunter is a 28-year-old homegrown contract-year veteran who could be traded away for salary relief before the season starts. He has three Pro Bowls over the past half decade and is strong rushing the passer and defending the run. Wherever he plays in 2023, he’ll be an asset.

Davenport is a second-contract offseason addition who missed 19 games in five years for the Saints but was a stout two-phase player when healthy. He should be a competent-at-worst replacement for Smith.

Wonnum is a 2020 contract-year fourth-rounder with median — more like “meh”-dian (#NailedIt) — PFF run-defense and pass-rush grades of 49.2 and 54.8. Jones is a 2021 third-rounder with league-average rotational play.

Carter is a rookie UDFA who had 19 sacks in his two final seasons at Army. He fell in the draft because of some poor numbers (4.86-second 40-yard dash, 30-inch vertical and 9-foot-1 broad jumps) — but his predictive three-cone was a quick 6.86 seconds, and he wasn’t a typical prospect in that he lacked the ability to prepare extensively for his athletic testing because of his service academy responsibilities.

The Vikings gave him a three-year contract with $340,000 guaranteed, which is the most any UDFA rookie has gotten over the past two years — so he’s probably making the roster and could be a steal. Vilain is a 2022 UDFA who could potentially push Wonnum for his spot if the Vikings need or want to go cheap at the position.

Phillips joined the Vikings last year after four seasons with the Bills. He played a career-high 738 snaps in 2022 and has never had a PFF run-blocking grade below 60. Lowry is an offseason defection from the rival Packers, where he spent the first seven years of his career and played for Pettine for three seasons. He’s a subpar but cheap ($8.5M over two years) replacement for the departed Tomlinson ($57M over four years).

Tonga is a 2021 seventh-rounder who played for Pettine and Rumph on the 2021 Bears and then reunited with them last year. He has the size (6-foot-4 and 321 pounds) to line up at nose, and he gave the Vikings 300 high-quality snaps in 2022 after they added him in Week 8.

Lynch is a 2020 fourth-rounder yet to provide league-average rotational play. Otomewo is a 2022 fifth-rounder who wasn’t terrible (62.6 PFF grade) on 90 snaps last year. Roy is a four-star fifth-round rookie who was comped to Tomlinson as a prospect.

I guess the Vikings have a type. He could push Bullard and Blacklock — two veterans who underperformed last year in their first season with the team — off the roster.

Off-Ball Linebackers

• Starters: Jordan Hicks, Brian Asamoah
• Backups: Troy Reeder, Ivan Pace
• Borderline: Troy Dye, William Kwenkeu
• Notable Turnover: Eric Kendricks (Chargers)
• Unit Ranking: No. 16

Hicks joined the Vikings last year after seven years with the Eagles (2015-18) and Cardinals (2019-21). Although he’s a good run defender and situational pass rusher, he has been a subpar pass defender (high PFF coverage grade of 62.6) since leaving the Eagles.

Asamoah is a 2022 third-rounder who played well (78.8 PFF grade) last year in limited action (121). He’ll be expected to step up as the in-house replacement for Kendricks.

Reeder is a below-average 2019 UDFA with whom O’Connell is familiar thanks to their time together on the 2020-21 Rams. He’s no lock to make the roster after playing just 63 snaps last year with the Chargers, but his guaranteed money ($100,000) gives him a real shot, which is also the case for Pace ($236,000 guaranteed), a unanimous All-American UDFA rookie who has an animalistic nose for the ball (262 tackles, 34.5 tackles for loss in final two seasons).

Dye is a 2020 fourth-rounder with questionable run defense and poor coverage skills. Kwenkeu is a 2022 UDFA who played 13 defensive snaps last year. Both Dye and Kwenkeu are special teams aces, but they could lose their roster spots with the additions of Reeder and Pace.

Secondary

• CB Starters: Byron Murphy, Andrew Booth, Akayleb Evans
• CB Backups: Mekhi Blackmon, Joejuan Williams
• S Starters: Harrison Smith, Camryn Bynum
• S Backups: Lewis Cine, Josh Metellus, Jay Ward
• Notable Turnover: CBs Patrick Peterson (Steelers), Chandon Sullivan (Steelers), Cameron Dantzler (Bills) and Duke Shelley (Raiders)
• Unit Ranking: No. 28

Murphy joins the Vikings after four years and 48 starts with the Cardinals. Despite never being anything more than a mediocre cover man, Murphy will be tasked with leading the charge to replace the 3,000-plus CB snaps vacated by the team’s offseason departures. With his inside/outside versatility, he will likely man the slot in nickel packages and the perimeter in base formation.

Booth is a four-star 2022 second-rounder who played sparingly (105 snaps) and poorly (10.1 yards per target) as a rookie. Evans is a 2022 fourth-rounder who played more (165 snaps) but worse (11.0 yards per targets) than Booth last year.

Blackmon is a third-round rookie who is old (24 years), small-ish (5-foot-11 and 178 pounds), and slow-ish for his size (4.47-second 40-yard dash). He’s physical, aggressive and theoretically capable of playing on the perimeter and in the slot — but he might lack the tools to succeed in the NFL.

Williams missed all of last year to injury, and he made only one start with the Patriots in the three years prior, but the 2019 second-rounder is a good special teams player with the ability to flex between corner and box safety.

Smith is a 34-year-old Vikings lifer who has made 158 starts and six Pro Bowls for the team. Strong in coverage and against the run, Smith can play box, deep and nickel. He continues to carry the torch for the 2017 Vikings defense that finished No. 1 in yards and points. Bynum is a 2021 fourth-round centerfield safety who’s exploitable in coverage (10.4 yards per target last year).

Cine is a 2022 first-rounder who missed most of last season due to a broken leg he suffered on special teams. That he — as the No. 32 pick — was playing special teams at all is somewhat telling. Cine has great athleticism (4.37-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-2), but he might lack the heft (199 pounds) to play in the box and the instincts to play deep.

Metellus is a 2020 sixth-rounder who was a special teams-only contributor for his first two years, but last season he added lights-out defense (85.1 PFF grade) on 261 snaps. Ward is a fourth-round rookie who saw action at safety, in the slot and on the perimeter as a two-year SEC starter.

Because of his lack of speed (4.55-second 40-yard dash) and paucity of ponderosity (188 pounds), he might ultimately be best as a nickel defender.

Specialists

• Kicker: Greg Joseph
• Punter: Ryan Wright
• Holder: Ryan Wright
• Long Snapper: Andrew DePaola
• Kick Returner: Kene Nwangwu
• Punt Returner: Brandon Powell
• Borderline: K Jack Podlesny, PR Jalen Reagor

Joseph is a 2018 UDFA who lost camp battles his first three seasons, but he found a foothold with the 2021 Vikings and played well, converting 86.8% of his field goal attempts and going seven of nine on kicks of 50-plus yards. Last year, though, he regressed to a 78.8% conversion rate and went just four of 10 on 50-yarders. He signed a one-year extension this offseason and got $1.7 million guaranteed — but it’s not 100% guaranteed that he’ll beat out Podlesny (aka “Hot Pod”), a rookie UDFA who won 2022 SEC Special Teams Player of the Year at Georgia and connected on over 80% of his field goal attempts in each of his three seasons as the starting kicker for the back-to-back national champions.

Wright is a 2022 UDFA who was No. 9 last year with 43.8% of his punts downed inside the 20-yard line. DePaola is a 36-year-old veteran who joined the Vikings late in the 2020 season and has been with the team since. After earning the only first-team All-Pro recognition of his career in 2022, the Vikings gave him a three-year extension this offseason. In all three of his years with the Vikings, he has had a PFF special teams grade of at least 80.

Nwangwu was named second-team All-Pro last year, and across his two seasons he has three kick return touchdowns and 28.3 yards per kick return. Of all players with 40-plus kick returns since 2021, he’s No. 1 in yardage average. Nwangwu might be the league’s best active kick returner. Powell is cheaper ($1.08M) than Reagor ($2.42M), and he has had more success as a punt returner (9.6 yards per punt return vs. 8.0). He could push Reagor off the roster.

Schedule analysis

Here are my notes on the Vikings’ strength of schedule and a pivotal stretch of games that I think will shape how their season unfolds.

• Strength of Schedule: No. 26
• Home Division: NFC North
• Opposing Division: NFC South, AFC West
• Key Stretch: Weeks 2-7
• Opponents: at Eagles, vs. Chargers, at Panthers, vs. Chiefs, at Bears, vs. 49ers

The Vikings have the seventh-hardest schedule based on the market win totals of their 2023 opponents. That’s what you get when you go 13-4 the year prior and then match up with the AFC West. After their Week 1 ease-into-it home game against the Buccaneers, there are a few distinct pockets of their schedule I could choose to highlight as “wow, that’s unfortunate,” but Weeks 2-7 stand out.

After the season opener, the Vikings go to Philadelphia to face the Eagles on Thursday Night Football. For Week 3, they return home to host the Chargers and then head out on the road again to face the Panthers.

For Week 5, they’re home against the Chiefs, followed by a road matchup against the Bears and then a home game against the 49ers on Monday Night Football. Nevermind the fact that they play three-of-four away right after that. This stretch is suboptimal enough.

The Vikings are underdogs in each of their three home games in Weeks 2-7. In their first road game, they face the NFC champions. In their second road game, they face the No. 1 pick in the 2023 draft. And in their third road game, they face a divisional opponent with a potentially ascending QB.

With the bye more than a month away and no relief in sight, the Vikings could legitimately be on a six-game losing streak heading into their Week 8 matchup with the division rival Packers at Lambeau Field. If the Vikings falter in Weeks 2-7, they could see their season die before it even has the chance to walk.

2023 worst-case scenario

As a pessimist, I think this is the realistic worst-case scenario for the 2023 Vikings.

• GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah keeps too many middling veterans on the 53-man roster, and they underperform during the season. 
• HC Kevin O’Connell asks too much of his passer.
• DC Brian Flores immolates himself on the altar of overaggressiveness and is replaced by assistant HC Mike Pettine midseason.
• Special teams coordinator Matt Daniels continues to oversee a bottom-three unit.
• QB Kirk Cousins presses too much in a contract year and tries too much to make something out of nothing, which results in his worst season with the Vikings.
• RB Alexander Mattison can’t carry a lead back load on a weekly basis and starts to break down as the season wears on.
• WR Justin Jefferson grows frustrated with Cousins’ ill-timed interceptions and the lack of supplemental support he gets from WRs Jordan Addison and K.J. Osborn, who fail to draw defensive attention and make plays when given opportunities.
• TE T.J. Hockenson regresses from his career-high 914 yards and tells the team that he intends to test free agency in the offseason.
• LG Ezra Cleveland, C Garrett Bradbury and RG Ed Ingram collectively allow an unbearable amount of interior pressure on Cousins.
• EDGE Danielle Hunter struggles early in the year and is able to fetch only a Day 3 pick via the in-season trade market, and EDGE Marcus Davenport misses six games to injury.
• DT Dean Lowry is a massive liability in run defense, but Pettine continues to give him starter-level snaps because he “knows the system” from their previous time together.
• LB Jordan Hicks gets exploited in coverage and LB Brian Asamoah comes down from the cloud-like high of his 2022 performance.
• CBs Byron Murphy, Andrew Booth and Akayleb Evans have zero cohesiveness as the new starting trio.
• SS Harrison Smith announces that he plans to retire after the season and he voices his doubt about the direction of the franchise in a frank 12-minute locker-side interview with the media after the team’s Week 17 home loss to the Packers.
• Vikings go 5-12, finish last in the NFC North and head into the offseason unsure about their HC and QB situation.

2023 best-case scenario

As an idealist, I think this is the realistic best-case scenario for the 2023 Vikings.

• GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah aggressively cuts expendable veterans, and the young guys outperform expectations as their replacements.
• HC Kevin O’Connell makes life as easy as possible on his passer.
• DC Brian Flores luxuriates in the high-variance success of a unit that leads the league in takeaways. 
• Special teams coordinator Matt Daniels gets his unit up to average.
• QB Kirk Cousins operates within the elevated flow of the offense and has his best season with the Vikings, signing a two-year extension with the team in November.
• RB Alexander Mattison makes the Pro Bowl on the strength of a 1,500-yard, 15-touchdown season. 
• WR Justin Jefferson has a second consecutive 1,800-yard receiving campaign while WRs Jordan Addison and K.J. Osborn make the most of their targets.
• TE T.J. Hockenson hits the 1,000-yard mark and signs a long-term extension in December.
• LG Ezra Cleveland, C Garrett Bradbury and RG Ed Ingram play just well enough and are accounted for just enough in the playcalling for the impact of their pass-protecting deficiencies to be minimized.
• EDGEs Danielle Hunter and Marcus Davenport combine for 30 sacks.
• DT Dean Lowry loses his starting spot to DT Khyiris Tonga, who strengthens the team’s run defense.
• LBs Jordan Hicks and Brian Asamoah form a strong supplementary duo, as Hicks cleans up against the run and Asamoah hangs tough in coverage.
• CBs Byron Murphy, Andrew Booth and Akayleb Evans give up a lot of long plays in one-on-one coverage — but they also combine for 18 interceptions.
• SS Harrison Smith says that he’s not even close to thinking about retirement after the team locks up the NFC North following its Week 17 home win over the Packers.
• Vikings go 13-4 again, earn the No. 2 seed, gift O’Connell a #RevengeGame victory over the Rams on Super Wild Card Weekend, repeat the “Minneapolis Miracle” with a game-winning 61-yard touchdown to Jefferson against the Saints in the Divisional Round and then beat the Lions for the third time in six weeks to make the Super Bowl, where they lose by two touchdowns to the Chiefs. 

In-season angles

I view the Vikings as a neutral betting team.

If I were to bet against them, I’d most likely do it when they were underdogs. That might seem counterintuitive, as underdogs historically have offered more value than favorites — but with O’Connell and Cousins the Vikings feel like a team that plays comparable and lesser opponents closely and then gets totally outclassed by superior teams.

• O’Connell as Underdog: 1-4 ATS (53.9% ROI for faders)
• O’Connell as Underdog: 1-4 ML (34.8% ROI for faders)
• Cousins as Underdog With Vikings: 14-17 ATS (6.0% ROI for faders)
• Cousins as Underdog With Vikings: 9-22 ML (10.3% ROI for faders)

If I were to be “on” the Vikings at any point this year, I’d probably manifest my enthusiasm by betting the over, given that O’Connell’s team was the most profitable for over bettors last year (12-6, 26.3% ROI). The Vikings had a top-eight offense and bottom-eight defense in scoring in 2022, and I’m projecting that to be the case in 2023.

Data from Action Network, includes playoffs.

Offseason market to exploit

I’m moderately interested in under 8.5 wins at +120 (Caesars), given that I have the Vikings projected for 8.3 wins. 

If I can flip coins with a slight edge on the probabilities and also the payouts, then I’ll probably do it. So I might bet this if it’s still available as we get closer to the season.

Until then, I’m looking at the season-long player prop market.

Alexander Mattison Over 6.5 TDs Rushing (-108, FanDuel)

Not to be too simplistic with this, but Mattison is essentially the new Dalvin Cook, and Cook averaged 10.75 touchdowns rushing on 14.5 games per year over the past four seasons.

I generally lean to the under in season-long markets, but I have Mattison projected for 7.4 touchdowns rushing and believe that I’m being conservative. Given the offense he’s in and the role he’s likely to have, 6.5 touchdowns on the ground is a low bar to goal-line dive over.

You can tail the over on FanDuel, where you can also get a No Sweat First Bet of up to $1,000 when you create a new account. Simply sign up below and start betting today!

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