2023 New Orleans Saints Betting Preview

Last year, the New Orleans Saints went 7-10 in their first season without HC Sean Payton and second without QB Drew Brees. New HC Dennis Allen, a longtime Payton lieutenant, ensured organizational continuity as he transitioned from DC to the top role, and his defense was top-10 in points and yards allowed for the third straight season. 

The offense, though, stagnated under QBs Andy Dalton and Jameis Winston and finished outside the top 20 in scoring for the first time since 2005 — the last time the Saints were without Payton or Brees. In Allen, the Saints might have an acceptable heir to Payton.

He’ll get another shot to prove himself this year. And in new QB Derek Carr — whom Allen recruited this offseason after drafting in 2014 in his final year as Raiders HC — maybe the team will finally have its successor to Brees’ empty QB throne. This year, the Saints will look to improve their record, make the playoffs and see how long their postseason run can last.

In this 2023 Saints preview, we will look at the team’s offseason odds in various markets, my personal team projections and player projections for guys who might have props in the season-long markets.

I'll also dive into my projections for the 53-man roster with notes on each unit as well as the general manager and coaching staff, a schedule analysis, best- and worst-case scenarios, in-season betting angles and the offseason market that I think is most exploitable as of writing.

For fantasy analysis, check out Ian Hartitz’s excellent 2023 Saints preview.

Player stats from Pro Football Reference and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted. Historical sports betting data from Sports Odds History and Action Network (via Bet Labs).

2023 offseason odds

Projections as of July 6.

Offensive Line

• Starters: LT Trevor Penning, LG Andrus Peat, C Erik McCoy, RG Cesar Ruiz, RT Ryan Ramczyk
• Backups: T/G James Hurst, OG Calvin Throckmorton, OT Landon Young, G/T Nick Saldiveri
• Borderline: C/G Billy Price, OG Lewis Kidd
• Notable Turnover: G/C Josh Andrews (free agent)
• Unit Ranking: No. 10

Penning is a 2022 first-rounder who missed 11 games last year to a foot injury and made only one start. He was poor in pass protection (two pressures on 31 pass rushes) but a mauler in the run game. Peat is a second-contract veteran whom the Saints bounced between tackle and guard for the first few years of his career before finally settling at LG in 2018, when he was named to the first of his three straight Pro Bowls. But Peat has missed 29 games over the past five years and been dreadful at pass blocking for the past two seasons (20.1 PFF grade in 2021, 40.3 in 2022). 

McCoy is a 2019 second-rounder who has started every game of his career at the pivot and has consistently been an above-average producer in both phases. In four seasons for the Saints, he has allowed just three sacks.

Ruiz is a 2020 first-rounder who entered college as the No. 1 C in his recruitment class and played primarily in the middle at Michigan but has started at RG for the Saints for three years. He’s a sufficient pass blocker yet to have a PFF run-blocking grade of even 60. Ramczyk is a second-contract franchise bookend with one first-team All-Pro, two second-team All-Pros and a PFF blocking page that is entirely green and blue. He does everything well.

Hurst is a 31-year-old all-purpose lineman who has made 80 career starts despite entering the league in 2014 as a UDFA. He has exceptional versatility with his ability to play both tackle and guard spots, and he has had PFF pass-blocking grades above 75 in each season since joining the Saints in 2020.

Given that he has played most of the team’s LT snaps the past two seasons — and played the position at a high level — there’s a non-zero chance that he could beat out Penning for the starting blindside job in camp. Throckmorton is a 2020 UDFA who has played 1,398 snaps for the Saints since 2021, almost all of them at the two guard spots. He has performed terribly (he’s yet to have a PFF grade above 45), but he seems to be the team’s top interior backup.

Young is a 2021 sixth-rounder who has underperformed in spot action with 12 pressures allowed on 140 pass rushes. Saldiveri is a fourth-round rookie who played mostly RT but a little RG in college and is likely to kick inside in the NFL. He has good athleticism (5.21-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-6 and 318 pounds), but he isn’t guaranteed a roster spot and could be challenged by Price and Kidd.

Price is a discarded 2018 first-rounder now on his third team in three years. He has been plagued by year-to-year inconsistency throughout his career, but he has 45 career starts and the flexibility to man all three interior spots. Kidd is a 2022 UDFA who played 78 subpar snaps for the Saints last year (29.6 PFF grade), but at least he’s familiar with the offense.

Defensive Line

• EDGE Starters: Cameron Jordan, Carl Granderson
• EDGE Backups: Isaiah Foskey, Tanoh Kpassagnon, Payton Turner
• DT Starters: Nathan Shepherd, Bryan Bresee
• DT Backups: Khalen Saunders, Malcolm Roach
• Notable Turnover: EDGE Marcus Davenport (Vikings), DTs David Onyemata (Falcons), Shy Tuttle (Panthers) and Kentavius Street (Eagles)
• Unit Ranking: No. 13

Jordan is a 34-year-old third-contract veteran who has made eight Pro Bowls since the Saints drafted him in 2011. He is strong against the run and hasn’t had fewer than seven sacks in a season since his rookie year. Granderson is a 2019 UDFA who has steadily played more and played better throughout his four years with the team. Last season he had a career-high 5.5 sacks and 53 tackles and will need to step up even more this year as part of the committee to replace Davenport.

Foskey is a second-round rookie with great athleticism (4.58-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-5 and 264 pounds) and production (20.5 sacks in his final two seasons). Kpassagnon joined the Saints in 2021 after four years with the Chiefs, and the team extended him for another two years this offseason.

He’s an average-at-best pass rusher and mediocre run defender, but he at least has the size (6-foot-7 and 289 pounds) to kick inside if needed. Turner is an overdrafted 2021 first-rounder who has played only 315 snaps in two years. He’s strong against the run but forgettable in the pass rush (three sacks in 209 opportunities).

Shepherd is one of the three offseason additions the Saints hope will be able to replace the lost Onyemata, Tuttle and Street on the defensive interior.

In his five years with the Jets, Shepherd was a poor run defender but positive pass rusher (only one PFF grade below 65). Bresee is a first-round rookie who was the No. 1 overall recruit in the 2020 class. He missed time in college because of a torn ACL, a kidney infection and the death of his sister, but when on the field he showed the potential to be a difference-making presence in both phases.

Saunders played alongside Kpassagnon on the 2019-20 Chiefs and reunites with him this season after hitting career highs last year with 511 snaps, 18 QB pressures and 51 tackles for the Chiefs. Even so, Saunders has had a PFF run-blocking or pass-rushing grade of even 60 only once. Roach is a 2020 UDFA and the only holdover from last year’s DT rotation, but his play has been substandard for three straight seasons (zero sacks).

Off-Ball Linebackers

• Starters: Demario Davis, Pete Werner
• Backups: Zack Baun, Andrew Dowell, D'Marco Jackson
• Borderline: Anfernee Orji
• Notable Turnover: Kaden Elliss (Falcons)
• Unit Ranking: No. 7

Davis joined the Saints in 2018 after six years with the Jets and Browns, and since then he has been an All-Pro in four of five seasons (one-time first-team, three-time second-team). Despite his age (34 years), Davis is still a complete player who can bang in the box, rush off the edge and drop back in coverage. Warner is a 2021 second-rounder who has started 19 games in two years for the Saints and provided league-average play in all three phases.

Baun is a 2020 third-rounder who’s equally bad in run defense and coverage. He is yet to play even 200 snaps in a season and has underperformed his draft status, but he’ll get a shot this year to replace Elliss as the No. 3 LB. At the same time, his roster spot is not guaranteed.

Dowell is a 2019 UDFA who has been an ace special teamer (18 tackles) for the Saints over the past two years. Jackson is a 2020 fifth-rounder who has great athleticism (4.55-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-1 and 233 pounds) but missed all of last year to injury. With his coverage and special teams ability, he has the edge right now over Orji, who is only a rookie UDFA — but who also got $226,000 in guarantees. Jackson and Orji both might make the roster. 

Secondary

• CB Starters: Marshon Lattimore, Paulson Adebo, Bradley Roby
• CB Backups: Alontae Taylor, Isaac Yiadom
• S Starters: Tyrann Mathieu, Marcus Maye
• S Backups: Lonnie Johnson, Johnathan Abram, Jordan Howden, J.T. Gray
• Borderline: CB Ugo Amadi, S Smoke Monday
• Notable Turnover: CB Chris Harris (free agent), FS Justin Evans (Eagles), FS/CB P.J. Williams (free agent), SS Daniel Sorensen (free agent)
• Unit Ranking: No. 13

Lattimore is a second-contract perimeter corner who won the 2017 Defensive Rookie of the Year and has been a Pro Bowler in four of his five seasons with eight-plus games for the Saints. He missed 10 contests last year with a lacerated kidney and can be streaky — he gets up for big games and is lackadaisical for lower-tier matchups — but he was still dominant in 2022 with just 5.9 yards per target. A shutdown defender and strong tackler, Lattimore is probably a top-10 CB. Adebo is a 2023 third-rounder who has racked up 29 starts in two years but been abysmal to date (9.3 yards per target, 9 TDs). 

Roby — a 2014 first-rounder — was acquired via trade by the Saints two years ago after a good but not great stretch of seasons with the Broncos and Texans. In 2022, he played primarily in the slot for the first time in his career and performed well (6.7 yards per target, 53.7% completion rate).

Despite his perimeter ability, Roby seems likely to be a slot defender this season — although he and Adebo could both be pushed for playing time by Taylor, a 2022 second-rounder who balled out last year (45.3% completion rate) as an injury fill-in for Lattimore and took practice snaps in the slot at minicamp.

Yiadom as a third-round rookie played with Roby on the 2018 Broncos but is now on his fifth team in five years. He played no defensive snaps for the Saints in 2022, but he contributes on special teams and has corner/safety flexibility, but the journeyman Amadi has similar versatility and is a better cover man. He could edge out Yiadmon.

Mathieu and Maye both joined the Saints last year as the team’s new starting safety duo. Mathieu is a 31-year-old, three-time first-team All-Pro with the flexibility to play both safety spots and slot corner. He has never had a PFF coverage grade below 60.

Maye is a second-contract safety who’s best in centerfield, but he supports in run defense and has been a robust cover man throughout his career.

Johnson played with Roby on the 2019-20 Texans for the first two years of his career, starting out at perimeter corner and then moving to free safety. He’s inconsistent in coverage (9.9 yards per target for career) and terrible against the run, and he played only 165 snaps with the Titans last year, but his versatility could get him a roster spot.

Abram is an abandoned 2019 first-rounder who played for three teams last year. He has never fulfilled the promise of his draft capital, but he has lots of experience (36 starts) and is a decent reclamation addition. 

Howden is a fifth-round rookie with good athleticism (4.49-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot and 203 pounds) and experience (49 starts). He has the size and savvy to play both safety spots. Gray is a 2018 UDFA who has piled up 44 special teams tackles for the Saints over the past four years. 

Because of the lack of quality depth behind the starters, both Howden and Gray could make the team, although they could be pushed by Monday, a four-star 2022 UDFA who missed his rookie year to an ACL tear but was an old-school body-crushing safety at Auburn (he was almost ejected for targeting in his first college start and was ejected in his final game).

Specialists

• Kicker: Wil Lutz
• Punter: Blake Gillikin
• Holder: Blake Gillikin
• Long Snapper: Zach Wood
• Kick Returner: Rashid Shaheed
• Punt Returner: Rashid Shaheed
• Borderline: K Blake Grupe, P Lou Hedley

Lutz is coming off the worst year of his career (74.2% conversion rate) after missing 2021 with an injury, but he has been kicking for the Saints since his 2016 rookie season and has solid career marks (84.6% field goal rate, 58.6% from 50-plus yards). I doubt the 2019 Pro Bowler will lose his spot to rookie UDFA Grupe, who hit only 74.3% of his kicks in college.

GIllikin is a 2020 UDFA who missed his rookie year to injury but has been punting for the Saints since 2021. He doesn’t have outstanding distance (47.0 yards per punt for career), but last year he was No. 11 with 41.6% of his punts downed inside the 20-yard line. He should be able to hold off rookie UDFA Hedley, who averaged 45.2 yards per punt in college.

Wood was a college EDGE who transitioned to LS after going undrafted in 2016. He caught on with the Saints in 2017 and has been long-snapping for them since. Of all the guys in the world named “Zach Wood,” he’s probably the best at pushing a ball between his legs with accuracy and velocity. Shaheed was sufficient last year as a return man (9.7 yards per punt return, 22.9 yards per kick return) and could improve in his second season: At Weber State, he set the all-time FCS record for kick return touchdowns with seven.

Schedule analysis

Here are my notes on the Saints’ strength of schedule and a pivotal stretch of games that I think will shape how their season unfolds.

• Strength of Schedule: No. 1
• Home Division: NFC South
• Opposing Division: NFC North, AFC South
• Key Stretch: Weeks 2-8
• Opponents: at CAR, at GB, vs. TB, at NE, at HOU, vs. JAX, at IND

The Saints have the league’s easiest schedule based on the market win totals of their 2023 opponents. They play in the weak NFC South, and they have interdivisional matchups with the soft-ish NFC North and AFC South. They don’t have a single game against a team with a higher win total in the market.

But it’s not as if they have an unimpeded path to the playoffs: They’re one of just five teams this year with a five-of-seven away stretch. That’s tough… but it also might be manageable — and if they can get through it relatively unscathed then they could be in position to compete for one of the top seeds in the NFC.

After hosting the Titans in Week 1, they kick off their key stretch with back-to-back road games: at Panthers on Monday Night Football and at Packers. Divisional games can be tough, and Lambeau Field is a difficult place to play — but early-season matchups against two new starting QBs (Bryce Young, Jordan Love) are very winnable. 

In Week 4, the Saints return home to host the divisional Buccaneers, who have an undesirable QB situation (Baker Mayfield, Kyle Trask). After that, the Saints have another back-to-back set of games: at Patriots and at Texans. For the Patriots, QB Mac Jones is on his third straight OC.

For the Texans, rookie QB C.J. Stroud will be in his sixth NFL game. The Saints have a tough matchup in Week 7 against the Jaguars on Thursday Night Football — but that game is at home and currently a pick ’em. And then in Week 8 they’re on the road again, but they get yet another rookie QB in Anthony Richardson for the Colts.

Regardless of opponents, any five-of-seven away stretch is likely to induce “unforeseen” losses, but all seven of these games are eminently winnable. If the Saints can go at least 5-2 in Weeks 2-8, then — I almost hate to say it — they could have a real shot at the No. 1 seed in the NFC, given how forgiving their overall schedule is.

2023 worst-case scenario

As a pessimist, I think this is the realistic worst-case scenario for the 2023 Saints.

• Allen oversees a defense that regresses slightly because of coaching turnover, personnel defections and underperformance.
• Carmichael is slow to adjust the offense to Carr, so the offense finishes outside the top 20 in scoring for the second year in a row.
• Carr struggles in his new surroundings — new city, new team, new coaches, new offense — and is de facto benched for the final two games of the season with an injury that he could probably play through if the team wanted/needed him to.
• Kamara misses the beginning of the season to suspension and continues to decline upon his return while Williams plods inefficiently and Miller wallows on the sideline.
• Olave faces constant defensive attention because Thomas suffers a season-ending injury in Week 5, and Shaheed is proven to be nothing more than an empty sprinter.
• Johnson comes down from his 2022 highs, and Hill plays way too much as the team tries to use him as an offensive jump starter.
• Penning and Peat are disastrous, which results in Carr experiencing a seemingly never-ending onslaught of blindside pressure, which eventually causes his end-of-season injury, which leads to his “shadow benching” in Weeks 17-18.
• Granderson and Foskey cannot compensate for the departure of Davenport.
• Shepherd, Bresee and Saunders allow the Saints to be gashed regularly on interior runs, which makes it hard for the defense to get stops.
• Davis publicly calls out the line for its lack of toughness, causing a major rift within the defense.
• Lattimore loses focus as the season slips aways, and Adebo gets beat for multiple long plays throughout the season when matched up in one-on-one coverage.
• Mathieu moves to slot corner in the second half of the year so  he can be closer to the line of scrimmage to help in run defense, but then the team’s lack of quality safety depth is exposed.
• Grupe beats Lutz in training camp and then has a league-worst conversion rate before the team cuts him in Week 9.
• Falcons go 6-11, fire Allen and hire HC Jon Gruden.

2023 best-case scenario

As an idealist, I think this is the realistic best-case scenario for the 2023 Saints.

• Allen sees his defense return to the top five in scoring.
• Carmichael does his best Payton impersonation now that he has a starter-caliber QB.
• Carr has the most efficient passing season of his career.
• Kamara has another 1,300-yard season, Williams leads the league in rushing touchdowns for a second year in a row and Miller rotates in as an explosive change-of-pace playmaker.
• Olave makes his first Pro Bowl, Thomas stays healthy and Shaheed continues to punish defenses with his downfield ability. 
• Johnson becomes Carr’s new “Waller lite,” and Hill touches the ball only a few times a game.
• Penning moves to LG in training camp to make room at LT for Hurst, and Peat drops to the second unit. 
• Granderson and Foskey combine to replace Davenport — and then some.
• Shepherd, Bresee and Saunders do just enough against the run to ensure that the defense isn’t totally exploitable.
• Davis tells the media after Week 10 that the Saints are a Super Bowl team.
• Lattimore has another Pro Bowl campaign, and Adebo develops into a league-average corner.
• Mathieu earns his fourth first-team All-Pro.
• Lutz keeps the K job and converts over 90% of his attempts.
• Saints go 15-2, earn the No. 1 seed and beat the Lions in the Divisional Round and Cowboys in the NFC Championship before losing by 11 points in the Super Bowl to the Chiefs in a game that’s not nearly as close as the final score.

In-season angles

I view the Saints as a slight “bet on” team — but if I were to bet against them I would almost certainly do it when they are favored.

• Allen as Favorite: 4-8 ATS (30.1% ROI for faders)
• Carr as Favorite: 17-29-1 ATS (21.6% ROI for faders)

They will have my attention in the season opener against the Titans.

• Carr in Week 1: 6-3 ATS (32.6% ROI)
• Titans HC Mike Vrabel in Week 1: 1-4 ATS (56.4% ROI for faders)

Data from Action Network, includes playoffs.

Offseason market to exploit

I don’t like the value in the team futures market, so I’m looking at the season-long player prop market.

Chris Olave Under 5.5 Touchdowns Receiving (-120, DraftKings) 

This line is 4.5 at Caesars, so I like the line-shopping value I’m getting at DraftKings at 5.5.

Additionally, I have this projected at 4.9, so I see inherent value on the under.

I don’t think Olave will have a bad season. In fact, I actually like the over on his receiving yardage prop of 1,000.5 at DraftKings. I expect Olave to improve upon his 1,042 yards from last year.

But that doesn’t mean he’ll score touchdowns. He’ll be competing for red- and end-zone targets with WR Michael Thomas and TE Juwan Johnson, both of whom have proven themselves to be capable scorers in the NFL.

And I expect the Saints to run the ball as they get closer to the goal line, which means that Olave could lose out on scoring opportunities to RB Jamaal Williams and TE Taysom Hill, who are certified goal-line vultures.

I like Olave and expect him to impress this season — just not as a touchdown producer.

You can tail the under on DraftKings Sportsbook, where you can also get up to $1,000 in DK Dollars when you create a new account. Simply sign up below and start betting today!

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