2023 New York Giants Betting Preview

Last year, the New York Giants improved to 9-7-1 from 4-13 in the first year under HC Brian Daboll, who won AP Coach of the Year, and it wasn’t just a “positive regression” type of change that we saw from the Giants: It was actual progress.

The team jumped from a point differential of -158 to -6 on the way to its first winning season since 2016. 

With nine wins, the Giants snuck into the playoffs — and then went on the road as underdogs to beat the 13-win Vikings in the Wild Card Round before inevitably suffering a 38-7 blowout loss to the Eagles the next week.

Despite how the season ended, the Giants had an incredibly successful campaign. This year, the Giants hope not to lose ground. And if they can make headway by winning more games or somehow advancing even further in the playoffs, then Daboll will have pulled off one of the most impressive franchise turnarounds in recent memory.

In this 2023 Giants preview, we will look at the team’s offseason odds in various markets, my personal team projections and player projections for guys who might have props in the season-long markets.

I'll also dive into my projections for the 53-man roster with notes on each unit as well as the general manager and coaching staff, a schedule analysis, best- and worst-case scenarios, in-season betting angles and the offseason market that I think is most exploitable as of writing.

For fantasy analysis, check out Ian Hartitz’s excellent 2023 Giants preview.

Player stats from Pro Football Reference and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted. Historical sports betting data from Sports Odds History and Action Network (via Bet Labs).

2023 offseason odds

Projections as of July 29.

Offensive Line

• Starters: LT Andrew Thomas, LG Ben Bredeson, C John Michael Schmitz, RG Mark Glowinski, RT Evan Neal
• Backups: T/G Tyre Phillips, OG Joshua Ezeudu, OT Matt Peart, G/C Jack Anderson
• Borderline: OGs Shane Lemieux and Marcus McKethan, C/G J.C. Hassenauer
• Notable Turnover: C Jon Feliciano (49ers), C/G Nick Gates (Commanders)
• Unit Ranking: No. 28

Thomas is a 2020 first-rounder who made second-team All-Pro last year. He’s a near-elite pass protector (six sacks allowed since 2021) and improving run blocker (81.0 PFF grade in 2022). Bredeson is a 2020 fourth-rounder whom the Giants acquired from the Ravens via trade right before the 2021 season.

While he began 2022 as a starter, he missed half the year to injury, rotated in for the second half of the season and has never had a PFF grade higher than 57.5. He could lose his starting spot in the preseason. Schmitz is a 24-year-old second-round rookie who made 35 starts at the pivot in college. He’s more of a zone vs. power run blocker, and he’s unexceptional as a pass blocker.

Glowinski is a 31-year-old, third-contract veteran who joined the Giants last season after seven years with the Seahawks (2015-17) and Colts (2018-21). With 90 career starts, he’s an average-at-worst run blocker and average-at-best pass blocker. Neal is a 2022 first-rounder who is full of promise but had a brutal rookie year (41.8 PFF grade).

Phillips is a 2020 third-rounder released last preseason by the Ravens and claimed by the Giants. He’s a subpar blocker, but he has 18 starts in three seasons and the flexibility to play every position except C.

Ezeudu is a 2022 third-rounder who disappointed last year with a 46.0 PFF grade on 289 backup snaps at LG. Peart is a 2020 third-rounder who can play both tackle spots and is decent at run blocking (PFF grade of at least 62.5 each season) but terrible at pass protecting (31 pressures on 404 opportunities).

Anderson is a four-star 2021 seventh-rounder drafted by the Bills, who lost him to the Eagles from their practice squad in his rookie year. After the Eagles in turn cut him at the end of the 2022 preseason, the Giants claimed him and reunited him with Daboll.

He has the flexibility to play all three interior spots, but he was poor last year (47.9 PFF grade) and will need to hold off Lemieux, McKethan and Hassenauer.

Lemieux is a 2020 fifth-rounder who made nine LG starts as a rookie, but he was dreadful (32.2 PFF grade), and then he missed most of 2021-22 with knee and toe injuries. McKethan is a 2022 fifth-rounder who redshirted his rookie season because of an ACL tear. Hassenauer is a 2018 UDFA who has seven starts for the Steelers over the past three years and is respectable as a blocker, but he’s on a one-year deal with no guaranteed money.

Defensive Line

• EDGE Starters: Kayvon Thibodeaux, Azeez Ojulari
• EDGE Backups: Oshane Ximines, Jihad Ward, Tomon Fox
• DT Starters: Dexter Lawrence, Leonard Williams
• DT Backups: A'Shawn Robinson, Rakeem Nunez-Roches, Ryder Anderson
• Borderline: NT Jordon Riley, DT D.J. Davidson
• Notable Turnover: DTs Nick Williams (Chargers), Henry Mondeaux (Jaguars) and Justin Ellis (Falcons)
• Unit Ranking: No. 19

Thibodeaux is a 2022 first-rounder who had a solid across-the-board campaign (72.5 grade), but the team will need him to progress in his second season. Ojulari is a 2021 second-rounder who had eight sacks as a rookie and 5.5 sacks in just seven games last year, but he’s a run-game liability.

Ximines is a 2019 third-rounder with just 50 pressures in four seasons. Ward is a 29-year-old journeyman who played a career-high 740 snaps last year in his first season with the Giants. He also had a career-worst 42.1 PFF grade. Fox is a 2022 UDFA who had one sack on 141 pass rushes as a rookie.

Lawrence is a 2019 first-rounder who moved from the B gap to the A gap last year and consequently had the best season of his career (Pro Bowl, second-team All-Pro). That the previous coaching staff wasn’t using him at nose, to begin with, was outrageous, given his size (6-foot-4 and 342 pounds). A strong run defender who pitched in with 7.5 sacks last year, Lawrence deserves every penny of his four-year $87.5M extension.

Williams is a 29-year-old veteran who has been with the Giants since they acquired him from the Jets in the middle of the 2019 season. He hasn’t made the Pro Bowl since 2016, and he had just 2.5 sacks in 2022, but he had 18 sacks in 2020-21 and has never had a PFF run defense grade below 65.

Robinson joins the Giants after seven years with the Lions (2016-19) and Rams (2020-22) and is a good replacement for the depth DTs lost this offseason. He missed the second half of last year with a torn meniscus and has only two sacks over the past three seasons, but he isn’t expected to miss much (if any) of the year, and his run defense (68.7 PFF grade last year, 78.3 the year prior) counterbalances his pass rush inadequacies.

Nunez-Roches signed a three-year deal with the Giants this offseason with almost $7.5M guaranteed after spending the first eight years of his career with the Chiefs (2015-17) and Buccaneers (2018-22). He can line up comfortably in either interior gap, but he’s an average-at-best run defender and blend-in pass rusher.

Anderson is a 2022 UDFA who had a 40.7 PFF grade on 193 snaps as a rookie. To make the roster he’ll likely need to hold off Riley (seventh-round rookie nose) and Davidson (2022 fifth-rounder recovering from a torn ACL).

Off-Ball Linebackers

• Starters: Bobby Okereke, Micah McFadden
• Backups: Darrian Beavers, Carter Coughlin, Cam Brown
• Injured: Jarrad Davis (IR, knee)
• Notable Turnover: Jaylon Smith (free agent) and Tae Crowder (Steelers)
• Unit Ranking: No. 30

Okereke joins the Giants after four years with the Colts. He’s good as a run defender (283 tackles since 2021), acceptable as a pass defender and forgettable as a pass rusher. McFadden is a 2022 fifth-rounder who’s dreadful in run defense (51.4 PFF grade) and abysmal in coverage (10.0 yards per target).

The season-ending OTAs injury to Davis will likely force McFadden into a starting role, although he’ll probably face competition from Beavers, a 2022 sixth-rounder who missed all of his rookie year to a preseason ACL tear but had 102 tackles as a Butkus Award finalist in his senior year.

Coughlin is a 2020 seventh-rounder with an orange-and-red PFF defense page, but he had a team-high 439 snaps and nine tackles on special teams in 2022. Brown is a 2020 sixth-rounder who played just three defensive snaps in 2022, but he — like Coughlin — led the Giants last season with 439 snaps on special teams, where he has been a three-year standout.

Secondary

• CB Starters: Adoree' Jackson, Deonte Banks, Darnay Holmes
• CB Backups: Cor’Dale Flott, Aaron Robinson
• S Starters: Xavier McKinney, Bobby McCain
• S Backups: Jason Pinnock, Nick McCloud, Dane Belton
• Borderline: CBs Tre Hawkins and Amani Oruwariye, S Gervarrius Owens
• Notable Turnover: CB Fabian Moreau (free agent), S Julian Love (Seahawks)
• Unit Ranking: No. 27

Jackson is a 2017 first-rounder who signed with the Giants in 2021 after four years with the Titans (2017-20). He has missed 29 games since 2019, but during his Giants tenure he has allowed just 5.5 yards per target, and for his career he has never had a PFF coverage below 65. In a contract year, he should be motivated.

Banks is a first-round rookie with an elite size/speed profile (4.35-second 40-yard dash a 6-foot and 197 pounds) and the physicality to press effectively at the line of scrimmage. He will partner with Jackson to form a high-upside (albeit maybe high-variance) perimeter duo.

Holmes is a 2020 fourth-rounder who is absolutely disastrous in run support (29.0 PFF grade last year) and merely egregious in coverage (49.5) — but he’s the only corner on the team with sustained NFL slot experience. If either Flott or Robinson is able to transition to the slot and outplay him in training camp, he could lose his roster spot.

Flott is a 2022 third-rounder who played well last year in coverage (73.0 PFF grade) but poorly against the run (43.0). Robinson is a 2021 third-rounder who missed most of 2022 because of an appendectomy and then a season-ending knee injury, but throughout his career he has allowed just 5.5 yards per target, and he has at least played 28.5% of his snaps in the slot, so there’s a chance he could unseat Holmes.

Hawkins is a sixth-round rookie with good length (6-foot-1 and 190 pounds) and great athleticism (4.39-second 40-yard dash, 6.74-second three-cone) but limited coverage ability: He’s a project. Oruwariye is a 27-year-old veteran who has started 36 games over the past four years with the Lions — but he has also allowed 9.3 yards per target for his career.

Either Hawkins or Oruwariye could push for a roster spot if Holmes is replaced in the slot or Robinson is slow to return from injury.

McKinney is a 2020 second-rounder who played well in his first two seasons but regressed last year (61.2 PFF grade) and missed half the campaign because he broke his hand while driving an all-terrain vehicle in the Week 9 bye.

McCain is a veteran CB-turned-S who spent the first eight years of his career with the Dolphins (2015-20) and Commanders (2021-22). Capable of lining up in the slot, on the perimeter, in the box and downfield, McCain joins the team as a darkhorse candidate to replace Holmes in nickel packages.

Pinnock is a 2021 fifth-rounder who played 473 snaps last year after the Giants added him from waivers. He’s a strong run supporter but a subpar cover man (75% catch rate, 11.2 yards per target), which is a weird profile for a centerfield safety to have.

McCloud is a 2021 UDFA who is converting from CB to S after showcasing great versatility last year in his first season with the team (143 snaps in the box, 151 in the slot, 258 out wide). Solid in coverage, run defense and even pass rush, McCloud has the potential to develop into a starter.

Belton is a 2022 fourth-rounder who had a 32.8 PFF grade as a rookie. He’ll probably make the roster — he was a core special team last year (164 snaps) — but he’ll need to hold off Owens, a seventh-round rookie with four years as a starter and experience at corner, nickel and safety.  

Specialists

• Kicker: Graham Gano
• Punter: Jamie Gillan
• Holder: Jamie Gillan
• Long Snapper: Casey Kreiter
• Kick Returner: Gary Brightwell
• Punt Returner: Jamison Crowder
• Borderline: LS Cameron Lyons, PR Adoree’ Jackson
• Notable Turnover: PR Richie James (Chiefs)

Gano is a 36-year-old veteran who has been kicking for the team since 2020 — and he has been “muh-honey” for the Giants with a 91.8% field goal overall and 80% conversion rate on his 25 attempts of 50-plus yards. It’s honestly hard to find a better kick over the past three years… in part because I’m not going to take the time to look at the data. But, still, you get the idea.

Gillan is a 2019 UDFA who joined the Giants last year and was No. 19 with 46.8 yards per punt and No. 21 with 35.1% of his punts downed inside the 20-yard line. I’m a little surprised the Giants didn’t bring in competition for him.

Kreiter has been long snapping in the league since 2016 and with the Giants since 2020. He has career-worst PFF special teams grades of 36.0 and 29.8 over the past two years, which probably explains why he has competition in Lyons (a rookie UDFA) — but the Giants re-signed him to a one-year deal this offseason with $352.5K guaranteed, so he’s probably making the team.

Brightwell averaged 21.3 yards per kick return last year, markedly below the league-wide mark of 22.8. I can imagine the team moving on from him even if it’s not obvious now who his replacement would be.

Crowder has a chance to replace Richie as the punt specialist: Last year with the Bills he averaged 11.1 yards per punt return. But he’s far from a lock to make the roster, and Jackson could beat him out as the returner. He had three punt returns for the team last year (albeit for only five yards). Early in his career, he averaged 8.8 yards per punt return for the Titans, and in college he won the 2016 Jet Award as the nation’s top return man.

Schedule analysis

Here are my notes on the Giants’ strength of schedule and a pivotal stretch of games that I think will shape how their season unfolds.

• Strength of Schedule: No. 18
• Home Division: NFC East
• Opposing Division: NFC West, AFC East
• Key Stretch: Weeks 1-11
• Opponents: vs. DAL, at ARI, at SF, vs. SEA, at MIA, at BUF, vs. WAS, vs. NYJ, at LV, at DAL, at WAS

Yes, I’m choosing to highlight the first 11 games of the season for the Giants, because I can’t help myself, and the schedule just compounds upon itself as it progresses. Even though the Giants have a moderate schedule based on the win totals of their opponents, there are “situational spots” galore on the calendar.

In Week 1, they’re home underdogs against the divisional rival Cowboys on Sunday Night Football. They could open the season with a loss — and then they play four-of-five away. In Week 2, they travel west for an afternoon game against the Cardinals, which is followed up with a Thursday Night Football road game against the 49ers, who are sizable favorites.

I must assume that the Giants already plan to stay out west on short rest — because it would be murderous to go back to New York and then return for another game so quickly — but even so they’re in a tough spot with back-to-back road games two to three time zones away within four days of each other.

For Week 4, the Giants return home and have three extra days of rest against the Seahawks on Monday Night Football — but they’re deprived of the benefit of playing a West Coast team in the early time slot. And then in Weeks 5-6 they have back-to-back road games as notable underdogs against the Dolphins and Bills.

After that, you’d think they’d get a respite — and at least they’re at home for the next two games — but they host the NFC East rival Commanders and same-stadium Jets. Home-field advantage is significantly diminished within division, and there’s almost no such thing as an easy divisional game. And the Giants will likely have almost no home advantage against the Jets, who are favored.

And then comes the epic coup de grâce: A three-game road trip. In Week 9, they go to Las Vegas, where they’re underdogs to the Raiders in the afternoon. In Week 10, they go to Dallas, where they’re even bigger dogs in a rematch with the Cowboys. Then finally in Week 11 they go to Washington for a rematch with the Commanders.

Playing on the road in division is tough. Playing on the road in a divisional rematch is tougher. Playing a divisional rematch on the road immediately after another road game is cruel. But playing back-to-back divisional rematches as the second and third games of a three-game road trip? That’s criminal.

Without stretching the bounds of reality, I can see how the Giants could easily be 3-8 (and maybe as bad as 1-10) coming out of Week 11… and they’ll still have another week before getting the bye… and they’ll still have two games remaining against the Eagles in Weeks 16 and 18.

I almost don’t even care what my win total projection is for the Giants or what their number is in the market. I’m very tempted to bet the under.

2023 worst-case scenario

As a pessimist, I think this is the realistic worst-case scenario for the 2023 Giants.

• HC Brian Daboll errs too much on the side of conservatism in order to limit the possible negative play of his QB.
• DC Don Martindale calls a defense that relies too much on the blitz and his DBs get beaten repeatedly in man coverage.
• QB Daniel Jones regresses back toward the guy who turned the ball over at will early in his career.
• RB Saquon Barkley suffers a high-ankle injury in Week 3 that sidelines him for three games and limits him all the way to the Week 13 bye.
• WR Isaiah Hodgins leads the team in receiving… with 500 yards.
• TE Darren Waller misses five games to a leg injury and sees his efficiency decline.
• LG Ben Bredeson, C John Michael Schmitz, RG Mark Glowinski and RT Evan Neal all underperform in pass protection and routinely expose Jones to excessive pressure.
• EDGEs Kayvon Thibodeaux and Azeez Ojulari play well to start the season but wear down because they take too many snaps as a result of all the other edge defenders sucking.
• DTs Dexter Lawrence and Leonard Williams are merely fine.
• LB Micah McFadden is slaughtered in coverage on a regular basis.
• CB Deonte Banks plays like a rookie, and CB Darnay Holmes somehow holds onto his slot job all year.
• S Xavier McKinney sees his disappointing 2022 form present itself in 2023.
• P Jamie Gillan can’t get a punt downed inside the 20-yard line to save his professional life.
• Giants start out 2-10, fire HC Brian Daboll in the Week 13 bye, name DC Don Martindale the interim HC and then go 3-2 in their final five games to finish 5-12 and ruin any chance they have of getting a top-two pick… and then they hire Patriots outside LBs coach Steve Belichick (son of Patriots HC Bill Belichick) to be their next HC.

2023 best-case scenario

As an idealist, I think this is the realistic best-case scenario for the 2023 Giants.

• HC Brian Daboll continues to strike the right balance between managing his QB and neutralizing the offense.
• DC Don Martindale has just enough talent at his disposal to call a top-10 defense.
• QB Daniel Jones improves upon his 2022 campaign and starts to look like … gulp … a true franchise player.
• RB Saquon Barkley has the best season of his career and wins Offensive Player of the Year as the engine of the offense.
• WR Isaiah Hodgins is one of four WRs with 500 yards receiving.
• TE Darren Waller plays 15 games and crosses the 1,000-yard threshold.
• LG Ben Bredeson develops into a league-average blocker, C John Michael Schmitz dominates as a rookie, RG Mark Glowinski improves marginally and RT Evan Neal makes a massive Pro Bowl leap in his second season.
• EDGEs Kayvon Thibodeaux and Azeez Ojulari combine for 20 sacks, and the guys behind them play just well enough to afford Thibodeaux and Ojulari some strategic snaps off each game.
• DTs Dexter Lawrence and Leonard Williams form the league’s most feared interior duo and wreak havoc as both pass rushers and run defenders.
• LB Micah McFadden loses a training camp battle to LB Darrian Beavers, who quickly turns into the team’s top tackler.
• CB Deonte Banks finishes No. 2 in Defensive Rookie of the Year voting while CB Darnay Holmes is cut from the team in the preseason and replaced in the slot by S/CB Bobby McCain, who stabilizes the team’s secondary.  
• S Xavier McKinney returns to his pre-2022 form.
• P Jamie Gillan has a nondescript, league-average season.
• Giants improve to 12-5, beat the Saints on Super Wild Card Weekend, beat the 49ers — down to their No. 4 QB — in the Divisional Round and then lose by 20 to the Eagles in the NFC Championship. 

In-season angles

I view the Giants as a moderate “bet on” team almost entirely because of Daboll, although — to his credit — Jones has outperformed expectations in negative circumstances.

• Jones as Underdog: 27-16 ATS (20.8% ROI)
• Jones on Road: 18-8 ATS (33.8% ROI)
• Jones as Road Underdog: 17-6 ATS (42.8% ROI)  

If I were to fade the Giants at any point this year, I might consider doing so by looking at their unders, since the main reason for fading them would likely be a lack of faith in Jones. And given how relatively well the Giants have done with him on the road, I’d specifically look at Giants home unders.

• Jones Under: 31-22-2 (12.0% ROI)
• Jones Home Under: 18-9-1 (27.0% ROI)

Data from Action Network, includes playoffs.

Offseason market to exploit

I have the Giants projected for 8.0 wins, and their consensus win total is 7.5, so you could technically say that I’m bullish on them… but I don’t like their market odds to win the Super Bowl, NFC or NFC East. I also don’t like them to make the playoffs.

If I were to exhibit some bullishness of them, it would likely manifest itself in the form of a +5000 bet at DraftKings on Saquon Barkley to win Offensive Player of the Year.

But here’s the thing: I have a sense of where/how my team projections might be flawed, and I’ve examined in depth how the schedule plays out for the Giants. Right now, you can bet over 7.5 wins at +100 at DraftKings — and my projection would indicate that there’s value in that position — but I wouldn’t bet that even with someone else’s money.

Instead, I’m looking at the alternative totals market.

Giants Under 5.5 Wins (+250, BetMGM)

At BetMGM you can find alternative win totals for every team in the league, and I’m willing to sell two wins at 7.5 to get an extra +150 on the odds.

I highlighted the circumstantial difficulties of their schedule earlier and think it’s well within the range of outcomes for them to have a 3-12 record (maybe worse) heading into their Week 13 bye, after which they could go into “soft” tank mode. Plus, they have two games against the Eagles and one road game against the Saints in their final five — so they could end up 5-12 even if they do give 100% to close the year.

You’ll remember that I have the team’s best-case scenario at 12-5 and the worst-case scenario at 5-12. And yet I think it’s not unrealistic for them to approach 5-12 just within the normal flow of the season. And that means I think their median outcome is far closer to their floor than their ceiling.

Just shooting from the hip, let’s say that the Giants end up on the negative side of variance and they win only 20% of the games in which they’re underdogs and 50% of the games in which they’re favored. Those numbers feel reasonable to me in an “if things go poorly” hypothetical.

They’re underdogs in 10 games and favorites in seven, so that comes out to 5.5 wins. Given that I think the team’s median skews to the downside, that probably means there’s value at +250 in the coin flip of this “bad scenario.”

Again, shooting from the hip, let’s go through the games and bucket them old-school style into wins and losses. The Giants are underdogs against the Cowboys (twice), 49ers, Dolphins, Bills, Jets, Raiders, Saints and Eagles (twice). All of those teams are better than them except for the Raiders and Saints, but they’re at home against the Giants, so I can’t give them both of those games. Bottom line: The Giants get only one win as underdogs.

As favorites, they face the Cardinals, Seahawks, Commanders (twice), Patriots, Packers and Rams. The Seahawks are better than the Giants; it’s hard to beat a divisional team two times in a year; and I don’t see the Giants beating both HCs Bill Belichick and Sean McVay in the same season. Bottom line: The Giants get only four wins as favorites.

Unlike all my other bets, this one (I admit) is driven very much by feel, but the circumstantially difficult nature of the team’s schedule is undeniable, and if the Giants’ season starts to unravel I want to have some exposure to that outcome at enhanced odds.

You can tail the alternate win total on BetMGM, where you can also get up to $1,000 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win! Sign up below and start betting today!

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