2023 New York Jets Betting Preview

The Jets finished fourth in the AFC East last year and saw QB Zach Wilson — the No. 2 pick in the 2021 draft — plagued by injury and inconsistency for the second year in a row. At the same time,  added three wins to their record (4-13 to 7-10), they shaved 174 points off their negative differential (-194 to -20), drafted two high-impact first-round rookies (Offensive Rookie of the Year WR Garrett Wilson, Defensive Rookie of the Year CB Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner) and HC Robert Saleh’s defense went from literally worst in yards and points allowed to top-five (No. 32 to No. 4). 

Outside of the QB position, the Jets looked like a good team — and then they traded for QB Aaron Rodgers. This year, with a Hall-of-Fame passer and brash defense, the Jets are expected to compete for a championship in Saleh’s all-important third year with the team.  

In this 2023 Jets preview, we will look at the team’s offseason odds in various markets, my personal team projections and player projections for guys who might have props in the season-long markets.

I'll also dive into my projections for the 53-man roster with notes on each unit as well as the general manager and coaching staff, a schedule analysis, best- and worst-case scenarios, in-season betting angles, and the offseason market that I think is most exploitable as of writing.

For fantasy analysis, check out Ian Hartitz’s excellent 2023 Jets preview.

Player stats from Pro Football Reference and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted. Historical sports betting data from Sports Odds History and Action Network (via Bet Labs).

2023 Offseason Odds

Projections as of June 21.

Offensive Line

• Starters: LT Duane Brown, LG Laken Tomlinson, C Connor McGovern, RG Alijah Vera-Tucker, RT Mekhi Becton
• Backups: T/G Billy Turner, G/C Wes Schweitzer, OT Max Mitchell, C Joe Tippmann, OL Carter Warren
• Notable Turnover: OTs George Fant (free agent) & Cedric Ogbuehi (Dolphins), RG Nate Herbig
• Unit Ranking: No. 17

Brown is a 38-year-old career-long blindside protector who made the Pro Bowl as recently as 2021. He missed four games last year in his first season with the Jets, but he allowed only 23 pressures and one sack in 2022 and has been relatively durable as he has aged. 

Tomlinson had a slow start to his career with the Lions, who traded the 2015 first-rounder to the 49ers for a Day 3 pick. In San Francisco, Tomlinson resurrected his career with five solid seasons as a starter, making the Pro Bowl in 2021 before joining the Jets last year. McGovern is a contract-year 30-year-old veteran who has been a full-time starter for the past half-decade and with the Jets since 2020. He’s above average in both run and pass blocking. 

Vera-Tucker is a talent-laden 2021 first-rounder who made 16 starts at LG as a rookie and then seven successive starts at RG (3), LT (1), and RT (3) last year before suffering a season-ending triceps injury. He could develop into an All-Pro at multiple positions. Becton is a 2020 first-rounder who impressed as a rookie at LT (23 pressures allowed), but he has struggled with weight issues (he was 364 pounds at the combine) and has played just one game in the past two years because of back-to-back season-ending knee injuries.

Turner is a veteran lineman who has made 30 starts at RT, 22 at RG, and seven at both LG and LT over the past five years — the final four of which were with Hackett on the 2019-21 Packers and 2022 Broncos. Even if Becton is healthy in 2023, Turner has a shot to earn the RT spot. 

Schweitzer is a 2016 sixth-rounder who has made 60 starts as an interior lineman since first cracking a roster in 2017. While he’s most experienced at G, he did make five starts at C last year for the Commanders. Mitchell is a 2022 fourth-rounder who stepped up with five RT starts last year when the Jets were stricken by injury — but he didn’t play well (55.5 PFF grade), and he missed the last month of the season because of blood clots, which landed him on the non-football injury list. 

Tippmann is a second-rookie who was the No. 1 C taken in the class. A Wisconsin lineman, he has the size (6-foot-6 and 313 pounds) to play at G if needed, but he’s likely to be the starting C for the 2024 Jets. Warren is a 24-year-old fourth-round rookie who started at LT for four years at Pittsburgh, but he might need to move to the inside in the NFL. He could make the roster because of the uncertainty with Mitchell’s health. 

Defensive Line

• EDGE Starters: Carl Lawson, John Franklin-Myers
• EDGE Backups: Jermaine Johnson, Will McDonald, Micheal Clemons, Bryce Huff
• DT Starters: Quinnen Williams, Quinton Jefferson
• DT Backups: Al Woods, Solomon Thomas
• Borderline: DTs Tanzel Smart
• Notable Turnover: EDGEs Vinny Curry (free agent) & Jacob Martin (Texans), DTs Sheldon Rankins (Texans) & Nathan Shepherd (Saints)
• Unit Ranking: No. 8

Lawson is a 28-year-old contract-year veteran with two ACL tears and a ruptured Achilles on his record — but he has been an above-average pass rusher in all five seasons he has played. He’s an adequate No. 1 EDGE on a unit with six solid contributors but no stars. 

Franklin-Myers is a 2018 fourth-rounder who flamed out with the Rams but caught fire with the Jets in 2020. He has had 50-plus QB pressures in each of the past three years. Johnson is a 2022 first-rounder who was mediocre last year as a pass-rusher but better against the run. Progression will be expected from him in his second season. 

McDonald is a first-round rookie with great explosiveness (11-foot broad jump at 6-foot-4 and 239 pounds) and production: He led Iowa State in sacks in each of his three final seasons, amassing 27 total in that span. Clemons is a 2022 fourth-rounder who was strong against the run (86.4 PFF grade) as a rookie but doesn’t profile to be much of a pass rusher (12.5 career sacks in four college seasons). Huff is an undrafted 2020 specialist who has rotated in since his rookie season and steadily improved over the past three years: In 2022, he shined as a situational player with 36 QB pressures on 173 pass-rushing snaps (88.0 PFF grade).

Williams was the No. 3 overall pick for the Jets in the 2019 draft, and now he’s looking to get paid thanks to his 12-sack first-team All-Pro performance last year. The engine of the team’s defensive front, Williams will almost certainly get a lucrative extension before training camp — but if he doesn’t he could hold out. 

Jefferson is a 30-year-old off-season acquisition with a one-year contract and 48 starts on three different teams over the past half-decade. He hasn’t had a PFF grade of even 60 since 2020, but he’ll be expected to replace the snaps (if not the play) of departed starter Rankins. 

Woods is a 36-year-old journeyman run-stuffer who has the size (6-foot-4 and 330 pounds) to line up at nose. He was a sharp addition after three above-average seasons in Seattle. Thomas has never lived up to the No. 3 overall draft capital that the 49ers invested in him in 2017, but he has played for Saleh for five years (2017-20 49ers, 2022 Jets) and can be counted on to contribute 350-plus subpar snaps without sabotaging the team. Smart has played 75 snaps as a reserve for the Jets since 2020. 

Off-ball Linebackers

• Starters: C.J. Mosley, Quincy Williams
• Backups: Jamien Sherwood, Hamsah Nasirildeen
• Borderline: Zaire Barnes
• Notable Turnover: Kwon Alexander (free agent)
• Unit Ranking: No. 9

Mosley is a 2014 first-rounder whom Douglas scouted for Baltimore, where he racked up four second-team All-Pros in his first five years in the league before signing with the Jets in 2019. He played just two games in his first season with the team because of a groin injury, and he opted out of the 2020 COVID campaign, but he has started 33 games for the Jets since 2021, and last year he had another second-team All-Pro performance. 

Williams is a 2019 third-rounder whom the Jaguars cut in 2021 and the Jets signed the next day and quickly made a starter. An abomination in coverage and liability against the run, Williams plays so many meaningful snaps for the Jets (1,673 in two years) for only one reason I can surmise: His brother is Quinnen Williams. And I guess the guys below him on the depth chart might not be good. 

Sherwood is a 2021 fifth-rounder who has been strong against the run (18 tackles on 84 attempts) but bad against the pass in limited action. He has been a special teamer for the past two years, as has Nasirildeen, a 2021 sixth-rounder with 67 forgettable defensive snaps. Barnes is a Day 3 rookie who could challenge either Sherwood or Nasirildeen for a roster spot.

Secondary

• CB Starters: Ahmad Gardner, D.J. Reed, Michael Carter II
• CB Backups: Brandin Echols, Bryce Hall, Justin Hardee
• S Starters: Jordan Whitehead, Adrian Amos
• S Backups: Tony Adams, Ashtyn Davis
• IR/PUP: SS Chuck Clark (knee)
• Borderline: S Jarrick Bernard-Converse
• Notable Turnover: FS Lamarcus Joyner (free agent), SS Will Parks (free agent)
• Unit Ranking: No. 1

Gardner — “Sauce” if you’re feeling nasty — is a 2022 first-rounder who might already be the league’s best corner. Selected No. 4 overall, Sauce had a first-team All-Pro Defensive Rookie of the Year campaign last season with a league-high 20 passes defended and a 45.9% completion rate allowed. With his combination of size (6-foot-3 and 190 pounds) and speed (4.41-second 40-yard dash), Gardner can match up with almost any kind of WR on the perimeter. 

Reed is a second-contract veteran who played for Saleh on the 2018-19 49ers but broke out with the 2020-21 Seahawks before signing with the Jets last offseason. He’s a strong No. 2 CB with an alpha attitude and four consecutive seasons of PFF coverage grades above 70.0. Carter — no longer the “Other Michael Carter” — is a 2021 fifth-rounder who has been the team’s primary slot man for the past two seasons. Last year he was a solidly above-average contributor in both run and pass defense.

Echols is a 2021 sixth-rounder who was baptized by fire as a rookie starter and then replaced at RCB in 2022 by Reed. He was much better as a backup last year and played heavily on special teams. Hall is a 2020 fifth-rounder who started opposite Echols in 2021 and then ceded his LCB spot to Gardner in 2022, when he played just 15 snaps — but he didn’t play poorly as a starter (6.9 yards per target) and would probably get significant playing time on another team. 

Hall might be the league’s best No. 5 CB. Hardee is a special teams ace who made his first Pro Bowl last year on the strength of a career-high 14 tackles. A college WR who converted to CB as an undrafted rookie in 2017, Hardee signed with the Jets in 2021 after four seasons with the Saints and has been a team captain in both years with the team.

Whitehead is an above-average veteran who can play strong and free but is better deep on account of his mediocre run defense. While he flipped between the two spots last year in his first campaign with the Jets, he’s likely to replace Joyner at FS this year to accommodate Amos, who is more of a box defender given his size (6-foot and 214 pounds). A 30-year-old offseason addition with 122 starts (and another familiar face for Rodgers, thanks to his time on the 2019-22 Packers), Amos will serve as the injury fill-in for Chuck Clark (knee), whom the Jets acquired via trade this offseason but who suffered a season-ending ACL tear in OTAs. 

Without Clark and the absented Parks, Adams will likely be pushed into the No. 3 S role. The undrafted 2022 DB played well against the run last year (83.7 PFF grade), but he also played only 118 snaps — but that’s more than Davis (13 snaps), a 2020 third-rounder who started 16 games for the 2020-21 Jets but was exiled to the sideline last year. The team might want his experience this year, but he’s average at best in pass defense and could lose his spot to Bernard-Converse, a sixth-round rookie corner converting to safety.

Specialists

• Kicker: Greg Zuerlein
• Punter: Thomas Morstead
• Holder: Thomas Morstead
• Long Snapper: Thomas Hennessy
• Kick Returner: Mecole Hardman
• Punt Returner: Mecole Hardman
• Notable Turnover: P Braden Mann (Steelers), KR/PR Braxton Berrios

Zuerlein (aka “Legatron”) joined the 2022 Jets after two years with the Cowboys and eight with the Rams. While he has never re-achieved the heights of his 2017 first-team All-Pro season (95.0% conversion rate), he still has leg for days and has converted 44-of-80 kicks from 50-plus yards for his career. 

Morstead is a 37-year-old veteran who had the unfortunate “Butt Punt” incident last year with the Dolphins but was also No. 5 with 45.9% of his punts downed inside the 20-yard line. He played seven games for the 2021 Jets as a fill-in for the injured Mann, and he’ll replace him again now in a permanent role. 

Hennessy has been long snapping for the Jets since his 2017 rookie season. Hardman was a Pro Bowler in 2019 and has scored as a kick and punt returner — but he’s probably a small downgrade on Berrios, a 2021 first-team All-Pro with superior career averages (24.9 vs. 23.8 on kicks, 11.4 vs. 9.0 on punts).

New York Jets schedule analysis

Here are my notes on the Jets’ strength of schedule and a pivotal stretch of games that I think will shape how their season unfolds.

• Strength of Schedule: No. 26
• Home Division: AFC East
• Opposing Division: AFC West, NFC East
• Key Stretch: Weeks 1-6
• Opponents: vs. BUF, at DAL, vs. NE, vs. KC, at DEN, vs. PHI

The Jets had a losing record last year — but now they have one of the league’s eight hardest schedules based on the market win totals of their 2023 opponents, primarily because they’re matched up against the AFC West and NFC East. Plus, their own division is tough.

On top of that, they have some situationally challenging spots. They come out of the bye with three of four games on the road. They also close the season with three of four away. They have no road games against easy opponents.

And their opening stretch to the season is brutal. In Week 1 they host the Bills for Monday Night Football: “Hey, Aaron — welcome to the AFC East!” For Week 2, they travel to Dallas to face the Cowboys, whose HC Mike McCarthy will be facing his former QB. The Jets are underdogs in both of those games. 

They could conceivably be 0-2 when they head back home for Week 3 game against the Patriots. They’re favored, but anything can happen in the division, and there’s no such thing as an easy matchup against a Bill Belichick defense. They could be 0-3 heading into Week 4 — when they host the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football. Needless to say, they’re underdogs in that spot.

So they could be 0-4 when they head on the road in Week 5 to play the Broncos, who will be looking for organizational revenge against Hackett. Mile High can be a tough place to play, especially early-ish in the year. The Jets could lose this game and then be 0-5 when they head back home to host the NFC champion Eagles — and it’s not hard to imagine the Eagles winning.

So the Jets — with Super Bowl aspirations and a Hall-of-Famer at QB — could conceivably be winless headed into the Week 7 bye.

I doubt that happens. In this stretch the Jets have four home games and only two divisional matchups. The three toughest opponents they have all year are crammed into the first six weeks, but at least they’re at home for these difficult games. 

I’m just saying that there’s potential for this season to get away from the Jets very quickly. For the psyche of both their fan base and their new QB, it will be important for them to be no worse than 2-4 at the bye week.

And if they somehow manage to get through this stretch with a 4-2 record or better — watch out.

2023 worst-case scenario

As a pessimist, I think this is the realistic worst-case scenario for the 2023 Jets.

• Saleh oversees a defense that regresses from No. 4 to No. 10 — because defenses regress.
• Hackett is the guy we saw in Denver and is stripped of playcalling responsibilities in Week 10.
• Downing takes over as the play-caller and is somehow worse than Hackett. 
• Rodgers struggles early in the year and openly argues with Hackett on the sideline as the Jets open the season 1-5, resulting in a legacy-defining on-air tirade against Pat McAfee in the Week 7 bye when he takes strong exception to McAfee’s characterization of the team’s play.
• Hall lacks his pre-injury burst.
• Wilson can’t connect with Rodgers as quickly as the veteran wants and Hardman can’t pick up the system, so Lazard and Cobb see way more targets than they should.
• Brown and Becton combine to miss 20 games to injury.
• Lawson suffers a third ACL tear.
• Quinnen Williams reports to camp late because of his contract situation and is out of shape to start the season as a result.
• Quincy Williams becomes way too much of a liability, so the team benches him, which results in Quinnen Williams publicly questioning the team’s leadership in talking with the press.
• Sauce becomes so disgusted and angry with all the other units after a players-only meeting gone wrong that he insists the secondary be allowed to travel separately from the team for the final three road games.
• Jets go 8-9 to miss the playoffs, Saleh is fired immediately after Week 18, and Rodgers takes months to think about the future only to retire shortly before the draft, with Adam Schefter breaking the story live on ESPN.

2023 best-case scenario

As an idealist, I think this is the realistic best-case scenario for the 2023 Jets.

• Saleh becomes something of a pop culture icon as his defense shuts out the Bills and Cowboys to open the year.
• Hackett learns from his 2022 debacle.
• Downing has minimal impact on the passing game.
• Rodgers approaches his 2020-21 form with methodical, efficient football as the Jets start 5-1, and he tells McAfee during the bye week that the team is the best one he’s ever been on.
• Hall has a 2,000-yard season and wins Comeback Player of the Year.
• Wilson clicks immediately with Rodgers, Hardman hits career highs in yards and touchdowns thanks to a series of big plays, and Lazard and Cobb embrace their roles as ancillary contributors.
• Brown stays healthy, and Becton has a Pro Bowl season.
• Lawson has a career-best 12 sacks.
• Quinnen Williams gets his long-term contract well in advance of training camp and has another first-team All-Pro campaign.
• Quincy Williams continues to play horribly, but it doesn’t matter because LBs don’t matter.
• Sauce doesn’t allow a touchdown all year.
• Jets win the division at 13-4, beat the Bills for a third time this year on Super Wild Card Weekend, defeat the Jaguars in the Divisional Round, host and shut down the Ravens in the AFC Championship, and win a low-scoring Super Bowl against the 49ers as Saleh beats Shanahan and Rodgers leads the team on an eight-minute come-from-behind game-winning touchdown drive and then quips afterward to the media, “I guess the 49ers should’ve taken me No. 1.”

In-season Jets betting angles

I view the Jets as a moderate “bet on” team, but it’s hard to know when they’ll be most exploitable because Rodgers is in a new situation (so his home/road splits, division record, etc., are less predictive) and Saleh has a relatively small sample of games (which might also be unrepresentative because he has a new QB).

I do think it’s notable that both Rodgers and Saleh have done well as underdogs.

• Rodgers as Underdog: 33-24-2 ATS (12.2% ROI)
• Saleh as Underdog: 16-12 ATS (13.2% ROI)

Rodgers has also tended to do well in primetime and off the bye.

• Rodgers in Primetime: 41-30-2 ATS (11.8% ROI)
• Rodgers Off Bye: 13-6-1 ATS (31.6% ROI)

I’m not actively looking to fade the Jets at any point, but if I were I might target their matchups with the Patriots in Weeks 3 and 18.

• Saleh vs. Belichick: 0-4 ATS (111.8% ROI for faders)
• Saleh vs. Belichick: 0-4 ML (47.3% ROI for faders)

But, again, Saleh’s sample of games is small and might be unrepresentative of what we’re likely to see in 2023.

Data from Action Network, includes playoffs.

Offseason Jets betting market to exploit

Now that we’re out of the top tier, the team futures markets are more intriguing because we have the opportunity for bigger payouts, which help to counterbalance the extended investment periods.

So I like the Jets to win the AFC at +1100 at DraftKings. They have a top-five defense and a QB who is one year removed from back-to-back MVPs.

But I think there’s more value in the season-long player prop market.

Garrett Wilson Under 1,150.5 Yards Receiving (-105) (DraftKings)

I like Wilson and expect him to be a good long-term player, etc., etc.

That said, there are multiple ways for the under to hit.

He could get injured. Rodgers could get injured. Rodgers could be bad. Rodgers could be fine, but the offense could be bad because of Hackett. The offense could be fine, but it could lean on the running game. The offense could be balanced, but maybe Rodgers would throw to Lazard and Cobb more than we’d expect.

If only one thing goes wrong for Wilson, the under will likely hit. For the over to hit, everything probably needs to go right. And I’m too much of a pessimist/realist to bet on that happening.

And if I were to bet on everything to go right for Wilson, I’d just rather bet on the Jets to win the AFC at a bigger payout.

I have Wilson projected for 1056.9 yards receiving so see significant value in betting under 1,150.5 at DraftKings.

You can tail the under on Garrett Wilson and get up to $1,000 in DK Dollars when you sign up for a new account below!

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