2023 Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Preview

The Pittsburgh Steelers last year entered a new era of football for the franchise as they transitioned from longtime QB and potential Hall-of-Famer Ben Roethlisberger to rookie Pitt product Kenny Pickett.

While Pickett failed to live up to the Offensive Rookie of the Year standard set by Roethlisberger in 2004, he did complete 63.0% of his passes and help lead the Steelers to their 16th straight non-losing season under HC Mike Tomlin (9-8). Their 6-3 record after the bye was especially encouraging. 

Despite missing the playoffs, the Steelers had a successful 2022. This year, the Steelers hope to build on last year’s work, win the AFC North and make a sustained run in the postseason.

In this 2023 Steelers preview, we will look at the team’s offseason odds in various markets, my personal team projections and player projections for guys who might have props in the season-long markets.

I'll also dive into my projections for the 53-man roster with notes on each unit as well as the general manager and coaching staff, a schedule analysis, best- and worst-case scenarios, in-season betting angles and the offseason market that I think is most exploitable as of writing.

For fantasy analysis, check out Ian Hartitz’s excellent 2023 Steelers preview.

Player stats from Pro Football Reference and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted. Historical sports betting data from Sports Odds History and Action Network (via Bet Labs).

2023 offseason odds

Projections as of July 13.

Offensive Line

• Starters: LT Broderick Jones, LG Isaac Seumalo, C Mason Cole, RG James Daniels, RT Chukwuma Okorafor
• Backups: OT Dan Moore, OG Kevin Dotson, G/C Nate Herbig, C/G Kendrick Green, T/G Le’Raven Clark
• Borderline: OL Spencer Anderson
• Notable Turnover: OT Trent Scott (Commanders), C/G J.C. Hassenauer (Giants)
• Unit Ranking: No. 22

Jones is a five-star first-round rookie who started 19 games at LT for championship-winning 2021-22 Georgia teams. He has a great athletic profile (4.97-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-5 and 311 pounds) but raw technique, given his limited college experience. Seumalo is a 29-year-old third-contract veteran who joined the Steelers this offseason after seven years and 60 starts with the Eagles. He can play either guard spot and is a strong pass blocker (only one PFF grade below 60). 

Cole and Daniels both joined the Steelers last season as second-contract starters. Cole has vacillated between starter and backup throughout his career and is an average-at-best pass and run blocker. Daniels allowed zero sacks last year and can man all three interior spots.

Okorafor is a 2018 third-rounder who has started at RT for the past three years but never had a PFF pass- or run-blocking grade of more than 65. He might get a push for his RT spot from Moore, a 2021 fourth-rounder who has started the past two years at LT. But assuming he doesn’t beat out Okorafor, Moore will drop down to the backup ranks as a depth-boosting swing tackle.

Dotson — like Moore — started 17 games for the Steelers last year but will likely serve as a backup in 2023. A 2020 fourth-rounder, Dotson is a strong pass blocker (no PFF grade below 75) but subpar run blocker (no PFF grade above 65).

Nate Herbig — brother of Steelers EDGE Nick Herbig — is a 2019 UDFA who joined the team this offseason after making 17 starts for the 2020-21 Eagles and 11 starts for the 2022 Jets. His play has steadily worsened since he entered the league: Last year, he had a career-low 58.0 PFF grade.

Green is a 2021 third-rounder who started 15 games at C as a rookie but shifted to G last year and failed to beat out Dotson for the LG spot. He was subpar in his first year and saw no snaps in 2022.

Clark is a 30-year-old journeyman now on his fourth team in four years after joining the Steelers this offseason. Only once has he had PFF pass- or run-blocking grades above 65, but he gives the team more tackle depth and has experience at guard. He might be competing for a roster spot with versatile seventh-round rookie Anderson, who made 4 LT, 5 C, 12 RG and 11 RT starts at Maryland. 

Defensive Line

• EDGE Starters: T.J. Watt, Alex Highsmith
• EDGE Backups: Markus Golden, DeMarvin Leal, Nick Herbig
• DT Starters: Cameron Heyward, Larry Ogunjobi
• DT Backups: Armon Watts, Keeanu Benton, Breiden Fehoko, Montravius Adams, 
• Borderline: DT Isaiahh Loudermilk
• Notable Turnover: EDGE Malik Reed (Dolphins), DTs Chris Wormley (free agent) and Tyson Alualu (free agent)
• Unit Ranking: No. 4

Watt is a 28-year-old five-time Pro Bowler and three-time first-team All-Pro who has been with the Steelers since they selected him in the first round of the 2017 draft. He missed seven games last year but led the league with 22.5 and 15 sacks in the two previous seasons. In the 11 games he has missed, the Steelers are 1-10. Watt is the defense. Highsmith is a 2020 third-rounder who had a career-high 14.5 sacks and league-high five fumbles forced last year. He’s a capable option opposite Watt.

Golden joins the Steelers this offseason as the new No. 3 EDGE. A 32-year-old veteran, he has three seasons with double-digit sacks and is average against the run. Leal is a 2022 third-rounder who played poorly as a rookie (46.0 PFF grade) but has outside/inside versatility because of his size (6-foot-4 and 290 pounds). Nick Herbig is a four-star fourth-round rookie who had 20 sacks in his two final seasons at Wisconsin.

The 34-year-old Heyward has aged like a fine bottle of Château St. Something, racking up six Pro Bowls and three first-team All-Pros over the past six years after earning no accolades in his first six seasons. With the Steelers since his 2011 rookie season, Heyward is a near-elite run defender and pass rusher.

Ogunjobi joined the Steelers last offseason after five forgettable years with the Browns (2017-20) and Bengals (2021), and his 2022 campaign was similarly bland with 1.5 sacks and 48 tackles. Over the past four years, he hasn’t had a PFF run- or pass-blocking grade of even 65.

Watts is an offseason addition now on his third team in three years. Last year he had one sack, 35 tackles and a career-worst 49.2 PFF grade. Benton is a second-round rookie with a good athletic profile (5.08-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-4 and 309 pounds) and the ability to line up at nose.

He had 15 tackles for loss in his final two years at Wisconsin. Fehoko is a 2020 UDFA joining the team this offseason after three years with the Chargers. He has zero career sacks and has never had a PFF run-defense grade of even 60. 

Adams signed with the Steelers off the Saints practice squad in the middle of 2021, and since then he has failed to hit a PFF run-defense grade of 50.

I project the Steelers to keep more interior DLs than most teams because of how poor their depth is, and both Fehoko and Adams could lose a roster spot to Loudermilk, a 2021 fifth-rounder who sucks (back-to-back sub-45 PFF grades) but has inside/outside versatility.

Off-Ball Linebackers

• Starters: Cole Holcomb, Elandon Roberts
• Backups: Mark Robinson, Tanner Muse
• Borderline: Nick Kwiatkoski
• Notable Turnover: Myles Jack (free agent), Devin Bush (Seahawks), Robert Spillane (Raiders)
• Unit Ranking: No. 14

Holcomb is a second-contract addition who spent the first four years of his career starting with the Commanders. He’s a league-average defender against the run and in coverage.

Roberts is a 29-year-old veteran who joins the team after seven seasons with the Patriots (2016-19) and Dolphins (2020-22). He’s a total liability in pass defense (he has never had a PFF coverage grade of 60), but he’s livable in run defense and strong in pass rush (13 pressures, five sacks in 29 opportunities last year).

Robinson is a 2022 seventh-rounder who bombed (27.6 PFF grade) in limited action (44 snaps) last year. Muse is a 2020 third-rounder who missed his rookie year to injury and then was waived by the Raiders before catching on with the Seahawks as a special teams contributor in 2021.

Last year he continued to play on special teams but also stood out (80.3 PFF grade) in limited action (124 snaps). He’s an intriguing offseason addition. Kwiatkoski is a 30-year-old journeyman who played zero defensive snaps last year, but he has been a special teams baller for most of his career, and he has 34 LB starts in his career. He could push for a roster spot.

Secondary

• CB Starters:  Patrick Peterson, Joey Porter, Chandon Sullivan 
• CB Backups: Levi Wallace, James Pierre, Cory Trice
• S Starters: Minkah Fitzpatrick, Keanu Neal
• S Backups: Damontae Kazee, Miles Killebrew
• Borderline: S Tre Norwood
• Notable Turnover: CBs Cameron Sutton (Lions), Arthur Maulet (free agent) and Ahkello Witherspoon (Rams), SS Terrell Edmunds (Eagles)
• Unit Ranking: No. 19

Peterson is a 33-year-old eight-time Pro Bowler and three-time first-team All-Pro who had a bounceback campaign last year (15 passes defended, five interceptions) after a few down seasons. I doubt he’ll sustain his success in his first year with the Steelers, but he still has the attitude of a shutdown corner.

Depending on how camp battles play out, he could man the perimeter in base formation and then play as a “power slot” in nickel packages. Porter — son of Joey Porter Sr., a longtime Steelers LB — is a second-round rookie with elite size (6-foot-3 and 193 pounds), good speed (4.46-second 40-yard dash) and physical press-man ability. Sullivan is a 2018 UDFA now on his third team in three years.

He has 30 starts over the past three years and is a slot specialist — he was almost certainly brought in as the presumptive starting nickel — but he hasn’t had a PFF coverage grade of 65 over the past three years.

Wallace is a 2018 UDFA who signed with the Steelers last season after four years with the Bills. He started nine games in 2022 (61 career starts overall) and has an aggressive playing style, but he has little experience in the slot.

If the Steelers want their three best corners on the field, Wallace will likely beat out Sullivan — but he forms a somewhat unnatural “who plays in the slot?” trio with Peterson and Porter, so he might be relegated to the No. 4 CB role.

Pierre is a 2020 UDFA who has played 713 defensive snaps for the Steelers over the past three years. He has good size (6-foot-2 and 185 pounds), supports in run defense and held pass catchers to 5.6 yards per target last year. Trice is a seventh-round developmental rookie with a great physical profile (4.47-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-3 and 206 pounds). He has the size to play box safety and the length to stick as a perimeter corner.

Fitzpatrick is a 26-year-old centerfield safety who has three first-team All-Pros since the Steelers acquired him via an in-season trade in 2019. He had a league-high six interceptions last year and is strong in run defense.

Depending on how the corner situation shakes out, there’s an outside chance that the Steelers could go with three safeties in nickel and use Fitzpatrick in the “star” slot role he played as a two-time All-American Thorpe and Bednarik Awards winner at Alabama.

Neal is now on his fourth team in four years, but he has 61 career starts and is the team’s most natural box safety with experience. He can play as a small LB in dime packages if needed because of his size (6-foot and 211 pounds), but he was likely signed this offseason to be the team’s starting SS.

Kazee played as the deep safety alongside Neal on the 2017-20 Falcons and 2021 Cowboys before signing with the Steelers last year. I doubt he starts at SS given his heavy FS/slot usage to date — and the same is true of Fitzpatrick — but Kazee’s knowledge of the system and longstanding chemistry with Neal could push the team toward more three-safety sets, which would make him more of a regular contributor and less of a backup.

Killebrew joined the Steelers in 2021 after five years with the Lions and has been a strong special teams player and depth safety/linebacker hybrid thanks to his size (6-foot-2 and 222 pounds). Norwood is a 2021 seventh-rounder who has played 645 poor snaps over the past two years (35.3 and 50.4 PFF grades) and could lose his roster spot with the addition of Neal.

Specialists

• Kicker: Chris Boswell
• Punter: Pressley Harvin
• Holder: Pressley Harvin
• Long Snapper: Christian Kuntz
• Kick Returner: Gunner Olszewski
• Punt Returner: Gunner Olszewski
• Borderline: K B.T. Potter, P Braden Mann, LS Rex Sunahara, PR Calvin Austin, KR/PR Jordan Byrd
• Notable Turnover: KR/PR Steven Sims (Texans)

Boswell is a 32-year-old veteran who has taken every kick of his career with the Steelers. He has missed eight games over the past few seasons, but he has an 86.3% conversion rate for his career, and since 2021 he has exhibited a distance that we rarely saw from him previously (12 attempts of 50-plus yards in 2015-20; 18 such attempts since 2021) — and his career mark from 50-plus yards is an unreal 80%. 

He should be able to beat out rookie UDFA Potter (75.3% conversion rate) in a camp battle.

Harvin is a 2021 seventh-rounder who was No. 28 last year with 44.5 yards per punt and 29.0% of his punts downed inside the 20-yard line. He absolutely could lose a camp battle to Mann (46.9 yards per punt, 32.5% punts downed inside the 20-yard line last year with the Jets).

Kuntz is a 2017 UDFA LB who converted to LS with the 2020 Renegades (XFL) and then caught on with the Steelers in 2021. Sunahara is a 2020 UDFA yet to take a regular season snap in the NFL. He played in the XFL this spring (Brahmas, Renegades), but Kuntz held him off in 2021.

Olszewski was a first-team All-Pro in 2020 thanks to his punt return performance (17.3 yards per return), but last year his average dipped to 6.9 yards, and he was eventually taken off both punt and kick return duty.

He could lose punt return work this year to Austin, who averaged 12.9 yards per punt return in his final two seasons of college and returned two punts for touchdowns. Olszewski might even lose all his return work — and his roster spot — to rookie UDFA Byrd, who returned three kicks and one punt for touchdowns at San Diego State. 

Schedule analysis

Here are my notes on the Steelers’ strength of schedule and a pivotal stretch of games that I think will shape how their season unfolds.

• Strength of Schedule: No. 11
• Home Division: AFC North
• Opposing Division: AFC South, NFC West
• Key Stretch: Weeks 15-18
• Opponents: at Colts, vs. Bengals, at Seahawks, at Ravens

The Steelers have the league’s 11th-easiest schedule based on the market win totals of their 2023 opponents, but their season will likely come down to the final month, when they have three-of-four away.

In Week 15, they travel to Indianapolis and have three days of extra rest against the Colts, but then they return home for a divisional rematch against the Bengals on Saturday afternoon (both teams will have one less day of rest). After that, they travel west with a one-day rest advantage in a road game against the Seahawks, and then they close the season on the road with a divisional rematch against Baltimore.

The Steelers have the rest edge in this stretch of games, but they also have three on the road, three against playoff teams, two against divisional rivals, and one on the West Coast. They’re underdogs in their final three games. Anyone can lose on the road in the NFL, and their one home game in the last month is against a reigning division champ that has been to the conference championship in back-to-back years.

The Steelers could lose all four games in this stretch. If they do, Tomlin’s streak of non-losing seasons will almost certainly be done.

2023 worst-case scenario

As a pessimist, I think this is the realistic worst-case scenario for the 2023 Steelers.

• HC Mike Tomlin becomes even more conservative with his decision-making and dictates that the offense must have a “play not to lose” approach.
• OC Matt Canada implements an unimaginative run-heavy offense per Tomlin’s directive.
• DC Teryl Austin can’t compensate for a defense with six new starters in the back seven.
• QB Kenny Pickett fails to progress in his second season and bounces between the sideline and the starting lineup in the back half of the campaign.
• RBs Najee Harris leads the league with 400-plus touches but continues to underperform and Jaylen Warren sees his efficiency regress.
• WRs Diontae Johnson doesn’t score a touchdown for the second year in a row, George Pickens displays too much down-to-down consistency and Allen Robinson is made a gameday inactive out of the team’s Week 6 bye.
• TE/FB Connor Heyward underwhelms as a lead blocker.
• LT Broderick Jones plays like a rookie, LG Isaac Seumalo struggles in his first year with a new team and the OL never develops strong continuity as players are regularly shuffled in and out of the starting lineup in an attempt to improve the line’s play.
• EDGE T.J. Watt misses three games in the middle of the year, and the Steelers lose all three contests.
• DTs Cameron Heyward endures a precipitous age-induced decline and Larry Ogunjobi continues to underproduce relative to his reputation.
• LBs Cole Holcomb and Elandon Roberts fail to pick up the slack created by a diminished defensive line that can’t stop the run and an almost entirely new secondary that lacks cohesiveness.
• CBs Patrick Peterson reverts back to his mediocre form, Joey Porter takes his lumps as a rookie, and Chandon Sullivan and Levi Wallace both end up on the sideline as the defense experiments with the nickel package as the year progresses.
• FS Minkah Fitzpatrick shifts to the slot and has his worst NFL season, FS Damontae Kazee proves to be a poor replacement for Fitzpatrick as the deep safety and SS Keanu Neal is overextended because of the team’s poor run defense. 
• P Pressley Harvin and KR/PR Gunner Olszewski both win their training camp battles but then suck during the season.
• Steelers go 7-10, lose Tomlin’s streak of non-losing seasons, finish last in division, decide to keep Canada one more year and enter into 2024 unsure about Pickett’s future.

2023 best-case scenario

As an idealist, I think this is the realistic best-case scenario for the 2023 Steelers.

• HC Mike Tomlin decides to open up the offense a little so the team can better see what it has in its second-year starter. His exact words are: “Let’s take the governor off the car and see what it can do.”
• OC Matt Canada installs an RPO-heavy offense that creates easy completions and yards after the catch.
• QB Kenny Pickett levels up in his sophomore season and finishes with a top-five AY/A.
• RBs Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren both have efficient campaigns as they move closer to a committee backfield.
• WRs Diontae Johnson and George Pickens both have 1,000-yard seasons and Allen Robinson loses out to Calvin Austin in a training camp battle.
• TE/FB Connor Heyward becomes the AFC’s Kyle Juszczyk.
• LT Broderick Jones plays like a veteran, LG Isaac Seumalo shifts to RG in training camp and becomes an OL leader, RG James Daniels kicks inside to C, OG Kevin Dotson keeps his LG starting job, OT Dan Moore beats out RT Chukwuma Okorafor and the Steelers have their best five linemen on the field together in Week 1. 
• EDGE T.J. Watt leads the league in sacks and wins Defensive Player of the Year.
• DTs Cameron Heyward continues to dominate and Larry Ogunjobi has his best season since his 2017 rookie campaign.
• LBs Cole Holcomb and Elandon Roberts capably man the middle in their first year with the team.
• CBs Patrick Peterson and Joey Porter form a physical and opportunistic perimeter duo.
• FS Minkah Fitzpatrick dominates as a slot corner, and FS Damontae Kazee and SS Keanu Neal pick up where they left off. 
• P Pressley Harvin and KR/PR Gunner Olszewski both lose their training camp battles and are replaced by better players.
• Steelers go 13-4, earn the No. 2 seed, beat the Dolphins in a snow game on Super Wild Card Weekend, squeak by the Bills in a low-scoring slugfest in the Divisional Round and then lose by 17 points to the Chiefs in Kansas City in the AFC Championship. 

In-season angles

I view the Steelers as a moderate “bet on” team that will be most attractive as underdogs.

• Tomlin as Underdog: 53-30-4 ATS (24.1% ROI)
• Tomlin as Underdog: 43-44 ML (26.2% ROI)

Conversely, if I were to fade the Steelers I would almost certainly do so when they were favored.

• Tomlin as Favorite: 87-98-3 ATS (2.8% ROI for faders)
• Tomlin as Favorite: 127-58-2 ML (0.4% ROI for faders)

That said, I doubt I’ll bet against the Steelers often this year.

Data from Action Network, includes playoffs.

Offseason Market to Exploit

I don’t like the value in the team futures market, so I’m looking at the player futures market instead.

Najee Harris Most Yards Rushing +3000 (DraftKings)

Harris is as low as +1800 at BetMGM and Caesars, so I love the line-shopping value we’re getting on him at +3000 at DraftKings.

He has been an inefficient runner through two seasons (3.9 yards per carry). But he’s still young (25 years old), and he’s built (6-foot-1 and 242 pounds) to handle a Derrick Henry-like workload. He’s yet to miss an NFL game, and he has been top-five in carries in each of his two years (No. 2 in 2021 with 307 carries, No. 5 in 2022 with 272).

Efficiency is highly variable, so Harris could jump up to 5.0 yards per carry with a little luck, and the Steelers offensive line could be significantly better this year with the additions of LT Broderick Jones and LG Isaac Seumalo. It might not be a stretch to think that Harris could be a markedly better runner this year.

And the Steelers could be better overall on offense with QB Kenny Pickett in his second season, which means that they could run more plays, extend more drives and give more carries to Harris.

For Harris to be outside the top 10 in odds when he has finished each year in the top five in carries is ridiculous.

You can tail the longshot on DraftKings Sportsbook, where you can also get up to $1,000 in DK Dollars when you sign up for a new account below!

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