2023 San Francisco 49ers Betting Preview

The 49ers began last season with the unknown Trey Lance at quarterback and finished it with Mr. Irrelevant Brock Purdy manning the position — and yet they still advanced to their third NFC Championship game in four years. This year, the 49ers are unsure as to who will start for them in Week 1, but they are once again expected to compete for a championship under miracle worker HC Kyle Shanahan.

In this 2023 49ers preview, we will look at the team’s offseason odds in various markets, my personal team projections and player projections for guys who might have props in the season-long markets.

I'll also dive into my projections for the 53-man roster with notes on each unit as well as the general manager and coaching staff, a schedule analysis, best- and worst-case scenarios, in-season betting angles and the offseason market that I think is most exploitable as of writing.

For fantasy analysis, check out Ian Hartitz's excellent 2023 49ers preview.

Player stats from Pro Football Reference and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted. Historical sports betting data from Sports Odds History and Action Network.

2023 San Francisco 49ers offseason Odds

Projections as of June 12.

Offensive Line

• Starters: LT Trent Williams, LG Aaron Banks, C Jake Brendel, RG Spencer Burford, RT Colton McKivitz
• Backups: OT Jaylon Moore, C/G Jon Feliciano, T/G Matt Pryor, G Nick Zakelj
• Notable Turnover: RT Mike McGlinchey (Broncos), G/C Daniel Brunskill (Titans)
• Unit Ranking: No. 9

Williams is a 10-time Pro Bowler with first-team All-Pro accolades in each of the past two seasons. He’s the bright but lone jewel in an otherwise no-name crown. Banks is a 2021 second-rounder whose play last year in his first season as a starter (59.5 PFF grade) is incommensurate with his draft position. If he doesn’t improve in camp, he could lose his job. 

Brendel is an undrafted backup journeyman who signed with the 49ers in 2020 and finally earned a starting gig in 2022 at the age of 30. He’s a moderately above-average pass blocker (he allowed just 14 pressures last year), but he’s not a franchise pivot. Burford is a 2022 fourth-rounder who fell into a starting job last year and played like a Day 3 rookie. Like Banks and Brendel, he’s vulnerable to a challenger. 

McKivitz is a 2020 fifth-rounder with five NFL starts (three at RG, two at LT). It’s assumed that he’ll replace McGlinchey as the Week 1 RT because the 49ers gave him a two-year extension and made him the No. 2 tackle on the team by compensation with a guaranteed $1.87 million at signing, but he’s yet to distinguish himself with his play.

Moore is a 2021 fifth-rounder who actually has played ahead of McKivitz in each of the past two years. With two serviceable LT spot starts last year in place of an injured Williams, he has a chance to beat out McKivitz in camp for the RT job. Feliciano has been a starter over the past four years at each of the interior spots (RG for the 2019-20 Bills, LG for the 2021 Bills, C for the 2022 NYG). He’s an experienced league-average lineman capable of replacing Brunskill as the top interior backup — but he also has a shot to steal a starting job from Banks, Brendel and Burford. 

Pryor is a below-average talent, but he has made 24 starts over the past three years for the 2020 Eagles and 2021-22 Colts, and he has the versatility to play both tackle and guard spots. Zakelj is a 2022 sixth-rounder who played 12 snaps last year. If no one sits on the bench, what’s the point of having a bench?

Defensive Line

• EDGE Starters: Nick Bosa, Drake Jackson
• EDGE Backups: Clelin Ferrell, Austin Bryant, Robert Beal
• DT Starters: Arik Armstead, Javon Hargrave
• DT Backups: Javon Kinlaw, Kevin Givens, Kerry Hyder
• Borderline: EDGE Darryl Johnson, DTs T.Y. McGill, Kalia Davis
• Notable Turnover: EDGEs Samson Ebukam, Charles Omenihu & Jordan Willis, DTs Hassan Ridgeway (Texans), Akeem Spence (free agent)
• Unit Ranking: No. 3

Bosa won Defensive Rookie of the Year as a 2019 first-rounder, and last year he won Defensive Player of the Year with a league-high 18.5 sacks. He’s the one difference-maker in an otherwise empty edge group. 

Jackson is a 2022 second-rounder who rotated in as an underproductive rookie (just 16 pressures) but now will need to step up as a starter to replace the departed Ebukam, Omenihu and Willis. Ferrell was over-drafted four years ago by the Raiders at No. 4 overall, and he has never had more than five sacks in a season, but he’s a fine addition as a rotational rusher, and maybe the 49ers will be able to unlock his upside. 

Bryant is a fifth-year fourth-rounder who has never had a PFF grade of even 55.0 and couldn’t consistently crack the Lions rotation last year. He’s no lock for the roster, and I expect him ultimately to be overtaken in the rotation by Beal, an upside fifth-round rookie with elite pedigree (five-star recruit who played at Georgia) and athleticism (4.48-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-4 and 247 pounds) and sufficient production (nine sacks in 2021-22 for the two-time National Champions). Johnson has played little over the past two years, but he was a basic back-end-of-the-rotation player for the 2019-20 Bills, and he has the potential to push Bryant or Beal off the roster with a strong camp.

Armstead has played the entirety of his eight-year career for the 49ers, who took him in Round 1 of the 2015 draft. He has played edge most, and in 2021 he was a true tweener splitting time between the interior and perimeter, but last year he settled in at tackle and played well. He has never been named to a Pro Bowl, but he has consistently been an above-average pass rusher and is as important to this defensive line as anyone except for Bosa. 

Hargrave was a great offseason acquisition: He had 22 sacks over the past two years with the Eagles (including playoffs), and he has the size to line up at nose (where he played early in his career with the Steelers) and the athleticism to play over the tackle (where he lined up a career-high 222 snaps last season). Kinlaw is a 2020 first-rounder who has disappointed as a three-year starter: He has never had a PFF run-defense grade of 50.0 or pass-rushing grade of 60.0. But now as a second-stringer, he could have more relative success with diminished expectations. 

Givens joined the 49ers as an undrafted rookie in 2019, and he has given the team consistent though subpar rotational snaps for three years. He’s vulnerable, as is Hyder, who started for the 49ers in 2020 and had a career-high nine sacks, after which he went to Seattle for a year only to return in 2022 as a backup. McGill (undrafted vet who third-stringed for 49ers last year) and Davis (2022 sixth-rounder who redshirted because of injury) could both push Givens and Hyder for their roster spots.

Off-ball Linebackers

• Starters: Fred Warner, Dre Greenlaw
• Backups: Oren Burks, Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles
• Borderline: Marcelino McCrary-Ball, Dee Winters, Jalen Graham
• Notable Turnover: Azeez Al-Shaair (Titans)
• Unit Ranking: No. 1

Warner has been a first-team All-Pro twice in his five-year career and is probably the best off-ball linebacker in the league. He excels in coverage and against the run. Greenlaw is a 2019 fifth-rounder who has been Warner’s running mate for the past four seasons. He’s an above-average defender coming off a career year with 125 tackles (including playoffs). 

Burks is a second-contract veteran who had a career-high 78.9 PFF grade in his first year with the team. He looks like the frontrunner to replace Al-Shaair as the No. 3 LB. Flannigan-Fowles is a depth linebacker and core special teamer who has been with the team since he entered the league as an undrafted free agent in 2009. If the 49ers decide to go with only four LBs, he’ll be competing with undrafted 2022 practice-squader McCrary-Ball and Day 3 rookies Winter and Graham for one spot.

Secondary

• CB Starters: Charvarius Ward, Deommodore Lenoir, Isaiah Oliver
• CB Backups: Samuel Womack, Darrell Luter
• S Starters: Talanoa Hufanga, Tashaun Gipson
• S Backups: Ji'Ayir Brown, Myles Hartsfield, George Odum
• Borderline: CB Ambry Thomas
• Notable Turnover: CB Emmanuel Moseley (Lions), S/CB Jimmie Ward (Texans)
• Unit Ranking: No. 9

Ward entered the league as an undrafted corner in 2018, but he earned a starting job with the championship-winning 2019 Chiefs and has been manning the perimeter since. He has allowed a completion rate of just 54.3% through five years and had a career-best 76.6 PFF coverage grade last season in his first campaign with the 49ers. A near-elite run defender with iron-fisted tackling skills, he’s an odd but livable No. 1 CB. 

Lenoir is a 2021 fifth-rounder who began last season in the slot but transitioned to the perimeter in Week 6 after Moseley was lost for the year. He stepped up in a big way to give the team 1,072 snaps (including playoffs) — but he has had sub-60.0 PFF coverage grades in both NFL seasons. 

Oliver is a 2018 second-rounder who started for the Falcons for the past four years. While he initially struggled on the perimeter, he has found a home in the slot and has allowed just 5.7 yards per target since 2021. He’s the frontrunner to replace Ward as the team’s primary slot defender, although he’ll face competition from Womack, who did yeoman’s work last year as a fifth-round rookie special teamer and backup corner. 

Luter is a small-school press-man Day 3 rookie who will compete for a roster spot with 2021 third-rounder Thomas, who has been exposed in limited usage (10.3 yards per target).

Hufanga was a ball-hawking 2020 All-American in his final season at USC, but athletic concerns (4.61-second 40-yard dash) caused him to fall to Day 3, where the 49ers got a draft-day steal. After serving as the No. 3 S as a rookie, Hufanga started all 17 games last year and snagged four interceptions on his way to a first-team All-Pro campaign. He’s not yet the best SS in the league, but he’s undoubtedly in the top five. 

Gipson has been an NFL starter for literally the last decade and was an enforcer on the feared 2017 Jaguars secondary. Last season he led the 49ers with five interceptions in his first year with the team and provided strong run defense (89.9 PFF grade). 

Brown is a third-round rookie who was slow at the combine (4.65-second 40-yard dash) but productive in his two starting seasons at Penn State (10 interceptions, 147 tackles). He should be able to earn the No. 3 job ahead of Hartsfield, an undrafted veteran who spent the past three years with the Panthers bouncing between the slot and safety and playing special teams. Odum played only 58 defensive snaps in 2022 in his first season with the team, but he’s likely to make the roster because of his special teams prowess (90.5 PFF grade last year).

Specialists

• Kicker: Jake Moody
• Punter: Mitch Wishnowsky
• Holder: Mitch Wishnowsky
• Long Snapper: Taybor Pepper
• Kick Returner: Ray-Ray McCloud
• Punt Returner: Ray-Ray McCloud
• Borderline: K Zane Gonzalez
• Notable Turnover: K Robbie Gould (free agent)

Moody is a third-round rookie who won the Lou Groza Award in 2021 as the best kicker in college and had an FBS-high 29 field goals in 2022. The second he booted a 59-yarder to close the second quarter against TCU on New Year’s Eve in the College Football Playoff, he was destined to be drafted on Day 2. If he has a bad camp, he could lose his job to the veteran Gonzalez, who had a 90.9% field goal rate with the Panthers when he last played in 2021 — but Moody should be able to beat him out as the replacement to Gould, who had been with the 49ers for all of the Shanahan era.  

Wishnowsky has been with the 49ers since 2019, when they made him an early Day 3 pick. Last year he was No. 1 in the league with 52.5% of his punts downed inside the 20-yard line. Pepper has been long snapping for the 49ers for three years, and they gave him a three-year extension this offseason: I guess they like him. McCloud was No. 3 among all regular punt returners with 10.8 yards per return last year in his first season with the team, and for his career he has 22.6 yards per return on kicks.

San Francisco 49ers schedule analysis

Here are my notes on the 49ers’ strength of schedule and a pivotal stretch of games that I think will shape how their season unfolds.

• Strength of Schedule: No. 3
• Home Division: NFC West
• Opposing Division: NFC East, AFC North
• Key Stretch: Weeks 10-15
• Opponents: at JAX, vs. TB, at SEA, at PHI, vs. SEA, at ARI

Despite going to the NFC Championship in three of the past four years, the 49ers have the third-easiest schedule based on the market win totals of their 2023 opponents, thanks primarily to playing in the NFC West. But they do have a couple of circumstantially tough spots with three separate back-to-back road stretches, one of which falls in the middle of Weeks 10-15, when they have two adjoining 3-of-4 away stints (A-H-A-A-H-A).

Entering the Week 9 bye, they have a tough slate of games (vs. DAL, at CLE, at MIN, vs. CIN), and then out of the bye they travel east for an early game against the Jaguars, who are also coming off the bye. 

In Week 11, they get their one “gimme” of this run — a home matchup against the Buccaneers, which looks like a classic “trap game.” After that, they have back-to-back road games: at Seattle against the division rival Seahawks in primetime on Thanksgiving and then back East to Philadelphia for an NFC Championship rematch with the Eagles. 

For Week 14, the 49ers head back home for a quick-turnaround rematch with the Seahawks, who have three extra days of rest. Then the 49ers have a road rematch against the division rival Cardinals, who will probably be bad this season — but who will also be coming off the bye and could have QB Kyle Murray back as the starter.

In this six-game stretch, the 49ers have four road games, four games against playoff opponents, three games in the division, and two games with a rest disadvantage — and they don’t even get a rest advantage coming out of their bye.

If the 49ers fail to repeat as NFC West champions, it will likely be because they struggled in this stretch.

2023 worst-case scenario

As a pessimist, I think this is the realistic worst-case scenario for the 2023 Bengals.

• Shanahan picks the wrong QB to start the year.
• Wilks wilts.
• Purdy plays like a seventh-rounder, Darnold plays like a first-round bust, and Lance plays like a guy with just 420 pass attempts since high school.
• McCaffrey suffers a significant injury and Mitchell can’t carry the load as the lead back.
• Samuel is hobbled by an accumulation of bumps and bruises, and Aiyuk regresses from his career-best 2022 season.
• Kittle sees his receiving production drop because the team needs to use him more as a blocker.
• Williams declines in his age-35 season and the rest of the offensive line collapses under the weight of its mediocrity.
• Jackson, Ferrell, and Bryant prove to be inadequate replacements for Ebukam, Omenihu and Willis.
• Ward has an inconsistent season, Lenoir fails to outplay his draft capital, and Oliver makes the 49ers wish that they’d re-signed Ward.
• Moody walks the path of Roberto Aguayo.
• 49ers lose a Week 18 “win-and-in” home game against the Rams and miss the playoffs with an 8-9 record in a surprisingly tough NFC West.

2023 best-case scenario

As an idealist, I think this is the realistic best-case scenario for the 2023 Bengals.

• Shanahan picks the right QB — because it doesn’t matter which one he picks — because his scheme and play sequencing create a QB-proof offense.
• Wilks thrives.
• Purdy becomes the guy that Shanahan always wanted Garoppolo to be.
• McCaffrey crushes, and Mitchell becomes one of the league’s best change-of-pace backs.
• Samuel channels his 2021 first-team All-Pro form, and Aiyuk takes another step forward.
• Kittle has his third 1,000-yard performance.
• Williams has yet another Pro Bowl campaign, and the rest of the offensive line keeps Purdy upright.
• Jackson, Ferrell and Bryant all have slightly above-average seasons.
• Ward is steady as the top corner, Lenoir marginally improves and Oliver locks down the slot with physical play.
• Moody misses only one kick within the 40-yard line all year.
• 49ers earn the No. 1 seed with a 14-3 record, sneak out tight home victories against the Cowboys and Eagles in the playoffs and then avenge their Super Bowl 54 loss by beating the Chiefs in the final game of the season with a last-minute game-winning drive by Purdy that culminates with a 51-yard Moody field goal as time expires.

In-season 49ers betting angles

I view the 49ers as a slight “bet on” team that will likely offer the most advantage as an underdog or on the road based on the following trends.

• Shanahan as Underdog: 29-20 ATS (14.6% ROI)
• Shanahan on Road: 32-25 ATS (8.8% ROI)

Shanahan has done especially well against Rams HC Sean McVay, who worked under Shanahan on the 2010-13 Redskins.

• Shanahan vs. McVay: 10-3 ATS (46.5% ROI)
• Shanahan vs. McVay: 9-4 ML (46.1% ROI)

The 49ers play the division-rival Rams in Weeks 2 and 18.

If I were to identify a point on the calendar when I might bet against the 49ers, Week 1 would be a possibility.

• Shanahan in Week 1: 1-5 ATS (61.0% ROI for faders)
• Shanahan in Week 1: 2-4 ML (57.1% ROI for faders)

Data from Action Network, includes playoffs.

Offseason 49ers betting market to exploit

I don’t want to bet on the 49ers in the offseason when we don’t know who their Week 1 QB is, but I also don’t want to bet against Shanahan, who has shown the ability to make his offense work with almost any passer.

So I’m staying away from the team’s futures markets right now. Instead, I’ll look to the MVP market.

Brock Purdy MVP +5000 (PointsBet)

It’s gross, I know — but that’s why +5000 at PointsBet is a value.

Purdy is already far enough along in his recovery from elbow surgery to be throwing the football. He has a real chance to be ready for Week 1, and his GM has named him the frontrunner for the starting job.

Minus the NFC Championship, when he was injured on the first drive, he was 7-0 last year (including playoffs) as a seventh-round third-string rookie thrust into the starting role in Week 14.

In his seven full games — from Week 14 to the Divisional Round — Purdy was No. 1 among all QBs with a 0.161 composite EPA + CPOE (per RBs Don’t Matter). Applied to the regular season, Purdy’s seven-game mark would’ve been No. 2, behind only Patrick Mahomes at 0.178.

In Shanahan’s offense, Purdy has a chance to be electrically efficient, especially with the elite playmakers he has around him.

And with their soft strength of schedule, the 49ers have the potential to win 12-plus games and earn the No. 1 seed.

Despite the long odds, this bet doesn’t require a massive leap of faith — because just last year the 49ers won 13 games, and we’ve already seen Purdy play well for a not-insignificant stretch.

If we get to the last quarter of the season and the 49ers are in the lead for the No. 1 seed in the NFC with Purdy playing well, the “Mr. Irrelevant” narrative combined with the “he’s returning from injury” angle — as well as potential Mahomes fatigue — will make Purdy a live candidate for MVP and drive his market down.

He’s not likely to win MVP. That’s why he’s +5000. But I think he’s likelier to win the award than his 1.96% implied probability suggests.

You can tail the Purdy bet on PointsBet, where you can also get two risk-free bets of up to $2,000 when you sign up below!

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