2023 Seattle Seahawks Betting Preview

The Seattle Seahawks entered last season with basement-level expectations after trading away franchise QB and potential Hall-of-Famer Russell Wilson — and then the team went 9-8 and made the playoffs. What looked like a long-time rebuild turned out to be a short-term renovation.

This year, with a renewed offense and revived defense, the Seahawks hope to challenge for the NFC West and make a postseason push that might just end with another Super Bowl victory for HC Pete Carroll and GM John Schneider.  

In this 2023 Seahawks preview, we will look at the team’s offseason odds in various markets, my personal team projections and player projections for guys who might have props in the season-long markets.

I'll also dive into my projections for the 53-man roster with notes on each unit as well as the general manager and coaching staff, a schedule analysis, best- and worst-case scenarios, in-season betting angles and the offseason market that I think is most exploitable as of writing.

For fantasy analysis, check out Ian Hartitz’s excellent 2023 Seahawks preview.

Player stats from Pro Football Reference and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted. Historical sports betting data from Sports Odds History and Action Network (via Bet Labs).

2023 offseason odds

Projections as of July 9.

Offensive Line

• Starters: LT Charles Cross, LG Damien Lewis, C Evan Brown, RG Phil Haynes, RT Abraham Lucas
• Backups: OT Stone Forsythe, G/T Anthony Bradford, C Olusegun Oluwatimi, T/G Jake Curhan
• Notable Turnover: RG Gabe Jackson (free agent), Cs Austin Blythe (retired) and Kyle Fuller (Broncos)
• Unit Ranking: No. 23

Charles Cross is a five-star first-team All-SEC 2022 first-rounder who started all 18 games at LT as a rookie and steadily improved throughout the campaign. He has the potential to develop into an All-Pro blindside protector.

Lewis is a 2020 third-rounder who came into his own last season with just 21 pressures allowed on 637 pass rushes. Brown is a 26-year-old journeyman who joined the Seahawks this offseason on a one-year deal after starting 24 games for the Lions the past two seasons. He isn’t guaranteed a starting role, but he has C/G versatility and might be able to push for the RG spot if he doesn’t win the job as Blythe’s replacement. 

Haynes is a 2019 fourth-rounder who re-signed with the team on a one-year contract. He started only three games last year, but he regularly rotated in with Jackson, whom the Seahawks let leave in free agency.

Haynes isn’t a massive liability, but he’s also an average-at-best blocker who will need to earn the starting job. Lucas is a 2022 third-rounder who started 17 games at RT as a rookie and allowed just 30 pressures on 633 pass rushes and was average as a run blocker, which is way better than draftniks thought he would be coming out of a spread offense.

Forsythe is a 2021 sixth-rounder who has been bad in the running game and worse in the passing game in spot action at RT. Bradford is a four-star fourth-round rookie who started multiple games for LSU at LT and RG in his final two seasons. He has good athleticism (5.08-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-4 and 332 pounds) and could push Haynes for a starting job.

Oluwatimi is an All-American fifth-round rookie who won the 2022 Rimington and Outland Trophies as the top center and top interior lineman on either side of the ball in college football. Despite his Day 3 draft capital, he could start in Week 1.

Curhan has the theoretical ability to man RT and both guard spots, but — like Forsythe — he’s bad as a run blocker and abysmal as a pass protector (22 pressures on 226 pass rushes).

Defensive Line

• EDGE Starters: Uchenna Nwosu, Darrell Taylor
• EDGE Backups: Derick Hall, Boye Mafe, Alton Robinson
• DT Starters: Dre'Mont Jones, Jarran Reed
• DT Backups: Myles Adams, Cameron Young, Mike Morris, Mario Edwards
• IR/PUP: Bryan Mone (knee)
• Borderline: EDGE Tyreke Smith, DT Jonah Tavai
• Notable Turnover: EDGEs Bruce Irvin (free agent) and Darryl Johnson (49ers), DTs Poona Ford (Bills), Quinton Jefferson (Jets), Shelby Harris (free agent) and Al Woods (Jets), DL L.J. Collier (Cardinals)
• Unit Ranking: No. 27

Nwosu signed a two-year deal with the Seahawks last season, and he delivered with a career-high 952 snaps, 62 pressures and 10 sacks. An above-average pass rusher and run defender, he will lock up a longer-term contract with another strong campaign. Taylor is a 2020 second-rounder with 17 sacks in two years but no PFF run grade of even 50. 

Hall is a four-star second-round rookie with great athleticism (4.55-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-3 and 254 pounds) and good production (16 sacks in final two seasons). The team hopes he’ll be an upgrade on Irvin.

Mafe is a 2022 second-rounder who was much better as a run defender (69.6 PFF grade) than pass rusher (53.0 PFF grade) last year. Robinson is a 2020 fifth-rounder who missed all of last year with a knee injury. He’ll likely compete for a roster spot with Smith, a 2022 fifth-rounder who also missed 2022.

Jones is the headliner of a new cohort brought in to replace almost the entirety of last year’s defensive interior. Capable of lining up in the B gap, over tackle or on the edge, Jones racked up 23 sacks in his first four years with the Broncos — but he’s a subpar run defender.

Reed is a 30-year-old prodigal who played the first five seasons of his career with the Seahawks and has now returned after back-to-back one-year stints with the Chiefs and Packers. He’s mediocre in both phases, but he can play some at nose as a fill-in for Mone, who suffered a torn ACL in Week 15 and could start the year on PUP. 

Adams is a 2020 UDFA who over the past two years has given the Seahawks subpar run defense (no PFF grade of even 55) but a quality pass rush (seven pressures on 121 opportunities). Young is a fourth-round rookie who profiles most as an A-gap run defender but marginal-at-best pass rusher (two sacks in five college seasons).

Morris is a four-star fifth-round rookie who won Big Ten Defensive Lineman of the Year with 7.5 sacks in 2022. He offers some inside/outside versatility, as does Edwards, who joins the Seahawks as a 29-year-old journeyman now on his seventh team. He offers little as a pass rusher (21 sacks in eight years), but he has routinely had PFF run-blocking grades above 65. Edwards might be in competition for a roster spot with Tavai, a rookie UDFA with 14 tackles for loss in back-to-back college seasons.

Off-Ball Linebackers

• Starters: Bobby Wagner, Devin Bush
• Backups: Jon Rhattigan, Vi Jones
• IR/PUP: Jordyn Brooks (knee) 
• Borderline: Cam Bright
• Notable Turnover: Cody Barton (Commanders), Tanner Muse (Steelers)
• Unit Ranking: No. 4

Wagner — who played the first 10 years of his career with the Seahawks — returns home after a one-year dalliance with the rival Rams. A six-time first-team All-Pro and likely Hall-of-Famer, Wagner had 140 tackles, six sacks, five passes defended and two interceptions in 2022.

Even at the age of 33, Wagner still has it. Bush will likely start the season for Brooks (212 tackles over past since 2021), who suffered a torn ACL in Week 17 and could open the year on PUP. A 25-year-old former first-rounder, Bush underperformed in his first four seasons with the Steelers, but maybe he’ll step up his game on a one-year deal next to Wagner. 

Rhattigan is a 2021 UDFA with 14 special teams tackles over the past two years. Jones and Bright are likely to compete for a roster spot. Jones is a 2022 UDFA who played 43 special teams snaps last year. Bright is a rookie UDFA with 50-plus tackles in each of his past four college seasons.

Secondary

• CB Starters: Tariq Woolen, Devon Witherspoon, Coby Bryant
• CB Backups: Michael Jackson, Tre Brown
• S Starters: Jamal Adams, Quandre Diggs
• S Backups: Julian Love, Jerrick Reed, Joey Blount
• Borderline: CB Artie Burns
• Notable Turnover: SS Ryan Neal (Buccaneers), S Josh Jones (free agent)
• Unit Ranking: No. 16

Woolen is a 2022 fifth-rounder who performed inconsistently in college as he transitioned from WR to CB à la Richard Sherman, but then he blew up the combine (4.26-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-4 and 205 pounds) and balled out as a rookie with a league-high six interceptions on his way to the Pro Bowl.

I don’t want to overhype a Day 3 player after only one season — but he could be a foundational high-end dominator in this secondary for years, as could Witherspoon, the No. 5 pick in the 2023 draft. Witherspoon doesn’t have great size (6-foot and 181 pounds) so there’s a chance he could slide inside to the slot in nickel packages, but he has sufficient athleticism (4.45-second 40-yard dash) and is physical in coverage and run support. A four-year starter and 2022 All-American, Witherspoon could be an NFL difference maker.

Bryant is a 2022 fourth-rounder who played as the team’s primary slot defender last year. Most analysts assume that he’ll continue to see action in nickel sets — but I’m not certain that’s the case. While it’s impressive that Bryant played heavily as a Day 3 rookie, he was poor in coverage (52.2 PFF grade, 7.7 yards per target).

Jackson wasn’t much better as the perimeter corner opposite Woolen (56.8, 6.9) — but he was better. One of these guys will play alongside Woolen and Witherspoon, and I lean toward Bryant because he’s younger than Jackson (26 years old, 2019 fifth-rounder) and has more theoretical room for improvement — but I think Jackson might be the better option in the short term.

Brown is a 2021 fourth-rounder who showed potential on 255 snaps as a rookie (4.4 yards per target, 47.1% completion rate), but he played only 21 snaps last year. Burns is a 2016 first-rounder who has been living on one-year deals since his rookie contract with the Steelers expired in 2020.

Only once has he had a coverage grade lower than 60, but he played only 16 defensive snaps for the Seahawks last year in his first season with the team.

Adams — the No. 6 pick of the 2017 draft — joined the Seahawks via trade in 2020, when they sent three top-100 picks to the Jets for him. On the one hand, he’s a one-time first-team All-Pro and three-time Pro Bowler. He’s an asset.

On the other hand, he missed almost all of last year with an injury and had sub-55 PFF coverage grades in his first two seasons with the team. He’s a good player, but there’s only so much impact a non-elite box safety can have on a defense — and Adams hasn’t looked elite with the Seahawks.

Diggs is a 30-year-old third-contract veteran whom the Seahawks have used in center field since trading for him in the middle of the 2019 season. An above-average pass defender and run supporter, Diggs forms a strong duo with Adams.

Love joins the Seahawks as a strong No. 3 S with 32 starts in his first four years with the Giants. He’s soft against the run but capable of playing both safety spots, and his presence on the team suggests that the Seahawks might use three safeties (instead of three corners) in nickel packages — and maybe the team will shift to more dime personnel.

Reed is a sixth-round rookie who hauled in nine interceptions in college. Blount is a 2022 UDFA who notched six special teams tackles for the Seahawks last year. 

Specialists

• Kicker: Jason Myers
• Punter: Michael Dickson
• Holder: Michael Dickson
• Long Snapper: Chris Stoll
• Kick Returner: DeeJay Dallas
• Punt Returner: DeeJay Dallas
• Notable Turnover: LS Carson Tinker (free agent)

Myers is a two-time Pro Bowler who has been with the Seahawks since 2019 after starting his career with the Jaguars (2015-17) and Jets (2018). In four years with the Seahawks, he has an 87.5% conversion rate.

Dickson was No. 7 last year with 48.5 yards per punt and has been on the team since his first-team All-Pro 2018 rookie season. Stoll is a rookie UDFA who has a clear path to the LS job as long as he doesn’t fall flat on his face: In his final season at Penn State, he won the Mannelly Award as the best LS in college football. Dallas is a middling returner with career marks of 7.3 yards per punt return and 23.0 yards per kick return. I’d expect him to face some competition. 

Schedule analysis

Here are my notes on the Seahawks’ strength of schedule and a pivotal stretch of games that I think will shape how their season unfolds.

• Strength of Schedule: No. 9
• Home Division: NFC West
• Opposing Division: NFC East, AFC North
• Key Stretch: Weeks 11-16
• Opponents: at LAR, vs. SF, at DAL, at SF, vs. PHI, at TEN

The Seahawks have the league’s ninth-easiest schedule based on the market win totals of their 2023 opponents, but they do have a difficult run of games in Weeks 11-16 that could derail their season.

In this stretch of games with conjoined three-of-four aways (A-H-A-A-H-A), the Seahawks travel to the Rams for a Week 11 divisional rematch and then turn around and head home to host the rival 49ers in primetime on Thanksgiving. A week later, they play the Cowboys in Dallas on Thursday Night Football, and then they travel to San Francisco for their second game against the 49ers in two weeks. For Week 15, they return to Seattle to host the Eagles, and then they travel to Tennessee for an early game against the Titans on Christmas Eve.

That’s four straight games (vs. SF, at DAL, at SF, vs. PHI) in which the Seahawks will be underdogs flanked by two road games (at LAR, at TEN), the first of which is against a divisional opponent, and the second of which is against a team that usually plays tough at home.

The Seahawks probably won’t lose all six of these games — but they could. If they do, they almost certainly won’t make the playoffs.

2023 worst-case scenario

As a pessimist, I think this is the realistic worst-case scenario for the 2023 Seahawks.

• Carroll reverts back to his pre-2022 conservative ways and instructs Waldron to scale back the offensive intensity.
• Hurtt can’t focus on his DC duties fully because of his shadow DL responsibilities.
• Smith follows up his Comeback campaign with a “come-back-to-earth” performance.
• Walker continues to struggle with down-to-down consistency, and Charbonnet goes the way of Rashaad Penny, C.J. Prosise and Christine Michael — the last three pre-Walker RBs the Seahawks selected with top-100 picks.
• Metcalf grows frustrated throughout the season because of his diminished target volume, Lockett has his first sub-1,000-yard performance since 2017 and Smith-Njigba struggles to transition to the NFL and eventually is turned into a rotational player as the Seahawks shift back to more two-TE sets.
• Fant, Dissly and Parkinson remain meaningless.
• The offensive line is hit with multiple injuries and its lack of proven depth is exposed.
• The defensive line gets pummeled with between-the-tackles running plays and can’t stop opponents from extending drives.
• Wagner suddenly looks his age.
• Woolen regresses after his overachieving rookie season, and Witherspoon plays like a guy who was a zero-star recruit.
• Adams sucks in coverage once again.
• Seahawks go 6-11 and enter an offseason of QB purgatory, uncertain of whether Smith will be the team’s starter in 2024.

2023 best-case scenario

As an idealist, I think this is the realistic best-case scenario for the 2023 Seahawks.

• Carroll empowers Waldron to be as aggressive as possible — or at least reasonable — with the offense.
• Hurtt delegates his DL duties successfully and sees his defense finish top-12 in scoring.
• Smith makes his second straight Pro Bowl as he again leads the league in completion percentage.
• Walker and Charbonnet combine for 2,000-plus yards from scrimmage.
• Metcalf, Lockett and Smith-Njigba all have 1,000-yard campaigns in a tightly consolidated three-WR passing offense.
• Fant plays far ahead of Dissly and Parkinson as the No. 1 TE and exploits the soft coverage he faces.
• The offensive line stays healthy, Oluwatimi and Bradford win the starting C and RG jobs in training camp, and they fortify the interior of the line.
• The defensive line plays just well enough against the run not to be an outsized liability.
• Wagner is named first-team All-Pro for a seventh time.
• Woolen becomes a shutdown corner in his second season, and Witherspoon wins Defensive Rookie of the Year.
• Adams returns to form and — with the blessing of Sherman and other Seahawks alumni — officially starts calling the secondary “The Legion of Deuxm.”
• Seahawks go 13-4, get the No. 2 seed, thrash the Vikings, outlast the Cowboys and then outmuscle the 49ers in Seattle to earn their ticket to the Super Bowl, where they secure an eight-point #RevengeGame victory over the first team Carroll ever coached and the first NFL team Smith quarterbacked — the Jets.

In-season angles

I view the Seahawks as a moderate “bet on” team likely to offer value in Seattle, which shouldn’t be a surprise, given the legendary “12th Man” home-field advantage the Seahawks have.

• Carroll at Home: 62-47-3 ATS (10.7% ROI)
• Carroll at Home: 78-34 ML (13.7% ROI)

If I were to isolate a spot to fade the Seahawks, it might be against the Rams (Weeks 1 and 11).

• Carroll vs. Rams HC Sean McVay: 4-9 ATS (34.9% ROI for faders)
• Carroll vs. Rams HC Sean McVay: 5-8 ML (4.7% ROI for faders) 

But I’m not looking to bet against the Seahawks often.

Seahawks only. Data from Action Network, includes playoffs.

Offseason market to exploit

I don’t like the value in the team futures market, so I’m looking at the season-long player prop market.

Tyler Lockett Under 6.5 TDs Receiving (-135, DraftKings)

I hate betting the under on Lockett, who has gone over with 10, 8, 10, 8 and 9 touchdowns in each of the past five seasons.

But this line is 4.5 at Caesars and 5.5 at FanDuel, so there’s line-shopping value in the 6.5 at DraftKings. Additionally, I have him projected for 5.1 touchdowns, so I see some inherent value in the under.

He turns 31 early in the year and should start to slow down at some point. And now he needs to compete with rookie WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, whose stop-on-a-dime agility could make him a strong option near the goal line.

Plus, the team’s addition of RB Zach Charbonnet could signal a new commitment to the running game, which might mean fewer red-zone and end-zone targets overall for everyone on the Seahawks.

You can tail the under on DraftKings and also get up to $1,000 in DK Dollars when you create a new account. Simply sign up below and start betting today!

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