2023 Tennessee Titans Betting Preview

Last year the Tennessee Titans did something of a halfhearted rebuild after four straight winning seasons under HC Mike Vrabel, and they got halfway results with a 7-10 record: Not good enough to make the playoffs, but not bad enough to finish with a top-10 draft pick or to push the team toward a full teardown. 

And so — as they did last year — the Titans find themselves this year in an uncomfortable middle ground.

They’re still ostensibly playing to win right now: They haven’t parted ways with QB Ryan Tannehill and RB Derrick Henry, and they added WR DeAndre Hopkins this offseason.

They’re also building for the future: On Day 2 of the draft, the team selected QB Will Levis and RB Tyjae Spears — potential replacements for Tannehill and Henry, who are both 2024 free agents — and the Titans can get out of their contract with Hopkins next year if they want to. Like the two-faced Janus, the Titans have eyes pointing in opposite directions.

This year, the Titans hope for something other than the purgatory they got last year.

They want either the heaven of an overachieved 13-win season that sees them wrap up the Tannehill and Henry era with a respectable postseason run — or the hell of an underachieved 13-loss season that leaves them with no choice other than to burn it all down and rise Phoenix-like from the ashes.

If not for Vrabel’s yearly ability to motivate coal to morph into diamonds, I’d say that a hellscape is more likely than paradise.

In this 2023 Titans preview, we will look at the team’s offseason odds in various markets, my personal team projections and player projections for guys who might have props in the season-long markets.

I'll also dive into my projections for the 53-man roster with notes on each unit as well as the general manager and coaching staff, a schedule analysis, best- and worst-case scenarios, in-season betting angles and the offseason market that I think is most exploitable as of writing.

For fantasy analysis, check out Ian Hartitz’s excellent 2023 Titans preview.

Player stats from Pro Football Reference and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted. Historical sports betting data from Sports Odds History and Action Network (via Bet Labs).

2023 offseason odds

Projections as of Aug. 9.

Offensive Line

• Starters: LT Andre Dillard, LG Peter Skoronski, C Aaron Brewer, RG Daniel Brunskill, RT Chris Hubbard
• Backups: OT Jaelyn Duncan, C/G Corey Levin, OG Jordan Roos
• Injured: RG Dillon Radunz (knee)
• Suspended: RT Nicholas Petit-Frere (6 games) 
• Notable Turnover: LTs Taylor Lewan (free agent) and Dennis Daley (Cardinals), OT Le’Raven Clark (Steelers), C Ben Jones (free agent), RG Nate Davis (Bears)
• Unit Ranking: No. 31

Dillard is a 2019 first-rounder who joins the Titans after withering on the vine for four years with the Eagles. With nine NFL starts, Dillard is a highly unproven blindside protector for a unit that lost its starting LT and two top backup OTs this offseason — but he’s not without hope: Over the past two seasons, he has allowed a respectable 20 pressures on 237 pass rushes.

Skoronski is an All-American first-round rookie who entered college as a four-star C and then kicked out to LT as a true freshman because of team need and started there for three years. The Titans are shifting him to guard because of his short arms (32 inches), which could make him a liability on the perimeter — but inside he has the skill set to be a sufficient pass protector and dominant run blocker.

Brewer is a 2020 UDFA who has started 22 games for the Titans over the past two years, primarily at LG, but he’s pivoting to C this year as the in-house replacement to Jones. He’s a poor pass blocker (45.4 PFF grade last season) and could struggle at his new position. Brunskill is a 29-year-old do-it-all yeoman who started 42 games and played at every OL position for the 49ers over the past four years.

With Davis gone and 2021 second-rounder Radunz possibly out to start the year (ACL tear in late December), Brunskill is in the mix to start at RG, but he’s also a candidate for RT, where starter Nicholas Petit-Frere (2022 third-rounder, 52.3 PFF grade) will be absent to start the year due to violating the league’s gambling policy.

Hubbard just signed with the Titans in late July and is a 32-year-old career RT with some LT/RG flexibility. He started 48 games combined for the 2016-17 Steelers and 2018-20 Browns but has been a poor backup for the past two years (51.0 PFF grade in 2021, 40.9 PFF grade last season). If Brunskill sticks at RG, then Hubbard could play at RT before Petit-Frere’s return.

Duncan is a four-star sixth-round rookie who started at LT for four years at Maryland. He has good athleticism (5.10-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-6 and 306 pounds) but might lack the strength to anchor at tackle and need to shift to guard.

Levin is a 2017 seventh-rounder who started three games at C last year. He can play all three interior spots and was a good pass protector last year (four pressures on 126 pass rushes), but he’s a mediocre run blocker. Roos is a 30-year-old journeyman who has been with the Titans since 2021.

He started the final three games of 2022 at RG and could be in the mix to start there if the Titans want Brunskill at RT — but Roos was a forgettable run blocker and ignominious pass protector (24.6 PFF grade).

Defensive Line

• EDGE Starters: Harold Landry, Denico Autry
• EDGE Backups: Arden Key, Rashad Weaver, Sam Okuayinonu
• DT Starters: Jeffery Simmons, Teair Tart
• DT Backups: Naquan Jones, Jaleel Johnson
• Borderline: EDGE Caleb Murphy, DT Jayden Peevy
• Notable Turnover: EDGEs Bud Dupree (Falcons), Mario Edwards (Seahawks) and Tarell Basham (Bengals), DTs DeMarcus Walker (Bears) and Kevin Strong (Cardinals)
• Unit Ranking: No. 23

Landry is a 2018 second-rounder who missed last year with an ACL tear but was a Pro Bowler in 2021 with 12 sacks. Autry is a 33-year-old veteran who has 17 sacks since joining the Titans in 2021 and had a career-best season (82.8 PFF grade) last year in Landry’s stead.

Key is a 27-year-old journeyman now on his fourth team in four years. While he disappointed early in his career (three sacks in his first three seasons), he has improved over the past two years (11 sacks with 2021 49ers and 2022 Jaguars).

Like Landry and Autry, he’s acceptable but not special against the run. Weaver is a 2021 fourth-rounder who got 5.5 sacks last year with increased playing time (640 snaps) thanks to Landry’s absence. 

Okuayinonu is a 2022 UDFA who got one sack on 65 pass rushes as a rookie. He could lose his spot to Caleb Murphy, a rookie UDFA who had a record 25.5 sacks and 39 tackles for loss and won the Ted Hendricks, Gene Upshaw and Cliff Harris Awards (defensive end, lineman, defensive player of year) as a senior for two-time Division II champion Ferris State.

Simmons is a 2019 first-rounder who has made the Pro Bowl and second-team All-Pro in each of the past two seasons. He’s a strong two-phase player.

Tart is a 2020 UDFA who has steadily increased in playing time and ability since his rookie year. He had 26 pressures last season on 305 pass rushes and a 67.0 PFF run defense grade.

Jones is a 2021 UDFA with back-to-back seasons with a PFF grade of 46.5.

Johnson is a 29-year-old journeyman now on his fifth team since 2020. Over the past three years, he has 2.5 sacks and no PFF run defense grade of even 40. Neither Jones nor Johnson is guaranteed to make the roster over Peevy, a 2022 UDFA with just 27 snaps last year. 

Off-Ball Linebackers

• Starters: Azeez Al-Shaair, Monty Rice
• Backups: Jack Gibbens, Luke Gifford, Chance Campbell
• Borderline: Ben Niemann
• Notable Turnover: David Long (Dolphins), Dylan Cole (Bears), Zach Cunningham (Eagles) and Joe Schobert (free agent)
• Unit Ranking: No. 29

Al-Shaair joins the Titans after four years with the 49ers, where he started 31 games. He’s an average-at-best pass defender but strong run defender (82.1 PFF grade last year). Rice is a 2021 third-rounder who — like Al Shaair — is unimpressive in coverage (53.6 PFF grade).

Gibbens is a 2022 UDFA who was good against the run last year (28 tackles) but lacking against the pass (80% catch rate). Gifford is an ace who joins the Titans after four years with the Cowboys, whom he led in 2022 with 406 special teams snaps.

Campbell is a 2022 sixth-rounder who missed last year to injury, but he has good athleticism (4.57-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-2 and 232 pounds) and was a plus special teamer in college. Niemann has 21 starts over the past half decade, and he had a career-high 70 tackles for the Cardinals last season, but he is a net negative in run defense and coverage and has no guaranteed money on his one-year deal.

Secondary

• CB Starters: Kristian Fulton, Roger McCreary, Sean Murphy-Bunting
• CB Backups: Caleb Farley, Elijah Molden, Tre Avery, Chris Jackson
• S Starters: Kevin Byard, Amani Hooker
• S Backups: Josh Thompson, A.J. Moore
• Notable Turnover: CB Terrance Mitchell (49ers) and Greg Mabin (Panthers), SS Andrew Adams, S/CBs Joshua Kalu and Lonnie Johnson
• Unit Ranking: No. 24

Fulton is a 2020 second-rounder who has allowed an unimpressive 8.0 yards per target for his career. McCreary is a 2022 second-rounder who allowed a not-so-nice 69.2% catch rate as a rookie, but at least he has inside/outside versatility.

Murphy-Bunting joins the Titans after four years and 36 starts with the Buccaneers. He’s coming off the best season of his career (74.5 PFF coverage grade), but he’s expected to move from the perimeter to the slot, where he struggled earlier in his career. 

Farley is a 2021 first-rounder who has played just 12 games and 164 snaps in two years and been absolutely terrible in his limited action (12.7 yards per target). Like “fetch,” he’s not going to happen. Molden is a 2021 third-rounder who missed almost all of last year to injury and allowed a 71% catch rate as a rookie.

Avery is a 2022 UDFA who was respectable (61.9 PFF coverage grade) on 289 snaps when pushed into action last season.

Jackson is a 2020 seventh-rounder who was injured almost all of last year and has never had a PFF coverage grade of even 55.  

Byard is a 30-year-old two-time first-team All-Pro who has been with the Titans his whole career. Strong in coverage and against the run and capable of lining up deep, in the box and at the slot, he’s one of the league’s best safeties.

Hooker is a 2019 fourth-rounder who has been starting for the Titans since 2021. Like Byard, he lines up across the formation and is strong in coverage (71.5 PFF coverage grade last year). Unlike Byard, he shouldn’t line up in the box because he’s terrible in run defense (43.8 PFF grade). The secondary would probably benefit if Hooker shifted from SS to FS. 

Thompson is a four-star 2022 UDFA who played just 83 special teams snaps last year. Moore signed with the Titans last year after four season with the Patriots (2018) and Texans (2018-21) — but then he missed most of 2022 to injury. He’s a poor defender (29.0 PFF grade in 2021) but reliable special teamer (1,177 snaps with Texans).

Specialists

• Kicker: Caleb Shudak
• Punter: Ryan Stonehouse
• Holder: Ryan Stonehouse
• Long Snapper: Morgan Cox
• Kick Returner: Julius Chestnut
• Punt Returner: Kyle Philips
• Borderline: K Trey Wolff, KR Hassan Haskins 
• Notable Turnover: K Randy Bullock (free agent), 

Shudak is a 2022 UDFA who played one game for the Titans last year in place of the injured (and since released Bullock). In his one season as the No. 1 K at Iowa, Shudak converted 85.7% of his field goal attempts and 100% of his extra point attempts. Stonehouse is also a 2022 UDFA, and last year he led the league with 53.1 yards per punt and was named second-team All-Pro. Cox is a 37-year-old veteran who has made five Pro Bowls since 2015 and was a first-team All-Pro in 2020. He joined the Titans two years ago.

Chestnut replaced Haskins as the team’s top KR in the second half of 2022, but I’m not sure why. He averaged 21.5 yards per kick return to Haskins’ 21.8. Frankly, neither of them is an ideal returner.

Philips started 2022 as the No. 1 PR on the team, but then he muffed two punts and suffered a season-ending injury. He’ll probably get the job back: He averaged an elite 12.4 yards per return (albeit in a small sample) last year, and in college he was a fantastic specialist with an average of 19.3 yards for his career and two touchdowns on 26 returns.

Schedule analysis

Here are my notes on the Packers’ strength of schedule and a pivotal stretch of games that I think will shape how their season unfolds.

• Strength of Schedule: No. 13
• Home Division: AFC South
• Opposing Division: AFC North, NFC South
• Key Stretch: Weeks 1-6
• Opponents: at NO, vs. LAC, at CLE, vs. CIN, at IND, vs. BAL (in London)

The Titans don’t have a tough schedule by virtue of playing the AFC South, but they do have a stretch of three consecutive road games in the middle of the year, and their opening to the season deserves a look.

In each of their first six games, the Titans are underdogs. They’re getting at least a field goal in five of them. Four of the games are on the road. And they have a three-of-four away stretch that culminates with a London game.

They could head into their Week 7 bye a depressed 0-6. 

2023 worst-case scenario

As a pessimist, I think this is the realistic worst-case scenario for the 2023 Titans.

• HC Mike Vrabel continues to shackle his offense with the chains of conservatism.
• OC Tim Kelly struggles early in the season to organize a staff that has minimal continuity.
• DC Shane Bowen can’t stop the perpetual bleeding in his pass defense.
• QB Ryan Tannehill plays just well enough to keep his job but not well enough to win games.
• RB Derrick Henry turns into end-of-career Eddie George.
• WR DeAndre Hopkins sees his efficiency decline for a second straight season, and WR Treylon Burks grows disinterested in the offense because of the team’s run-heavy approach.
• TE Chigoziem Okonkwo suffers the low-volume fate of Jonnu Smith.
• LT Andre Dillard plays like a guy who couldn’t earn his way off the bench, LG Peter Skoronski endures the struggles of a rookie, C Aaron Brewer languishes at his new position, RG Daniel Brunskill doesn’t do as well in a new offensive system and RT Chris Hubbard reminds everyone why he was still on the market in late July.
• EDGE Harold Landry is not the same player he was before his ACL tear.
• LBs Azeez Al-Shaair and Monty Rice are brutalized in coverage.
• CBs Kristian Fulton, Roger McCreary and Sean Murphy-Bunting are all separately benched at various points in the season, but they each find their way back into the starting lineup because their backups are worse.
• SS Amani Hooker plays in the box all year and routinely is exposed in run defense.
• K Caleb Shudak kicks like a guy who has played only one NFL game.
• Titans start the year 0-6 but save Vrabel’s job — and also sabotage their chance to get the No. 1 seed — by finishing the season 5-12.

2023 best-case scenario

As an idealist, I think this is the realistic best-case scenario for the 2023 Titans.

• HC Mike Vrabel begrudgingly allows the offense to lean more into the passing game.
• OC Tim Kelly struggles early in the season to organize a staff that has minimal continuity.
• DC Shane Bowen gets his defense to be a little less terrible against the pass.
• QB Ryan Tannehill returns to his 2019-20 form thanks to the best pass-catching unit he has ever had.
• RB Derrick Henry tightropes the age cliff for one more season.
• WRs DeAndre Hopkins and Treylon Burks both go over 1,000 yards receiving in a Week 18 victory.
• TE Chigoziem Okonkwo leads his position in yards per route for the second year in a row, and he finishes with 10 TDs as the team’s top red-zone receiver.
• LT Andre Dillard does a passable impersonation of a franchise blindside bookend, LG Peter Skoronski menaces DTs throughout his Pro Bowl rookie season, C Aaron Brewer transitions smoothly to the pivot and RG Daniel Brunskill and RT Chris Hubbard play like a savvy veterans.
• EDGE Harold Landry has his second career season with double-digit sacks.
• LBs Azeez Al-Shaair and Monty Rice deliberately decommit to run defense so they can focus on coverage.
• CBs Kristian Fulton, Roger McCreary and Sean Murphy-Bunting all get just a little bit better, and McCreary plays in the slot so that Murphy-Bunting can stay on the perimeter, where he had success last year.
• SS Amani Hooker switches spots with FS Kevin Byard, and they complement each other perfectly.
• K Caleb Shudak builds on the 85.7% conversion mark he sported as a college senior.
• Titans go 11-6, win the AFC South, beat the Chargers and Bills in back-to-back low-scoring snow games in the playoffs and then blow a 13-point halftime lead to lose to the Chiefs in Kansas City in the AFC Championship.

In-season angles

I view the Titans as a neutral betting team that will likely be exploitable via a zigzag strategy. If I bet on them, they will likely be underdogs.

• Vrabel as Underdog: 25-17 ATS (14.3% ROI)
• Vrabel as Underdog: 22-21 ML (51.5% ROI) 

If I bet against them, they will almost certainly be favorites.

• Vrabel as Favorite: 19-24-1 ATS (7.2% ROI for faders)
• Vrabel as Favorite: 16-28 ML (0.5% ROI for faders)

Some thoughts on the discrepancies we see between ATS and ML, which I think make sense. The Titans are a team that focuses on maximizing wins, not points. That means that, as favorites, the Titans are fine winning ugly (and thus not covering). As underdogs, the Titans don’t play to lose close: They compete for the victory, which means that win more than they probably should when getting points.

So if I’m betting on them as underdogs, it will likely be on the moneyline. If I’m fading them, the spread will suffice.

Data from Action Network, includes playoffs.

Offseason market to exploit

We have a no-hold market on Titans to make the playoffs and a negative-hold market on Titans win total.

• Make Playoffs: +250 (Caesars)
• Miss Playoffs: -250 (DraftKings)
• Over 7.5 Wins: +115 (BetRivers)
• Under 7.5 Wins: +105 (BetMGM)

In such a scenario — especially the win total market — the sportsbooks are effectively offering us a freeroll.

Let’s take them up on it.

Titans Under 7.5 Wins (+105, BetMGM)

I have the Titans projected for 6.9 wins, so this is a nice opportunity. As I mentioned in the intro and GM and HC section, this team is betwixt and between the future and the present, and I think this season — with QB Ryan Tannehill and RB Derrick Henry in the final year of their contracts — will finally push them toward the future and the rebuild they need. They went 7-10 last year, and I can’t say that their team has improved since then. 

You can tail the under on BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,000 paid back in bonus bets with their First Bet Offer. Sign up below and start betting today!

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