2023 Washington Commanders Betting Preview

Last year the newly styled “Commanders” entered the season hoping to survive the end of the Dan Snyder era and to improve on the 7-9 and 7-10 records they put up in their first two seasons under HC Ron Rivera.

While I’m not personally a fan of the “Commanders” brand — what was wrong with “Football Team”? — the franchise seems to have settled into its new name, and in 2022 the Commanders improved (hilariously) to a definitionally mediocre 8-8-1.

And then in May — glory be to the football gods — Snyder finally agreed to sell the team to an investment group led by Josh Harris (owner of the NBA’s 76ers and NHL’s Devils), and the $6.05B deal closed in July.

Much work remains. The task now falls to Harris to determine if Rivera, GM Martin Mayhew and (gulp) QB Sam Howell are the men to lead the team into the future.

For the time being, they’re the ones who will lead the team into the 2023 season — and that doesn’t sound great. But for the first time since May 1999, the future of this organization will not involve Snyder and the uncouth chaos that surrounds him, and that’s a source of hope that should sustain fans for a while. It’s morning in America’s capital.

This year, one way or another, the Commanders need to move out of the purgatorial middle ground they’ve occupied for the past three years (and really the past 24 years). If that means winning only three or four games and laying the foundation for a 2024 rebuild, fine.

If that means winning double-digit games, making the playoffs and discovering that Rivera, Mayhew and Howell belong to the franchise’s future, that’s even better. I guess.

In this 2023 Commanders preview we will look at the team’s offseason odds in various markets, my personal team projections and player projections for guys who might have props in the season-long markets.

I'll also dive into my projections for the 53-man roster with notes on each unit as well as the general manager and coaching staff, a schedule analysis, best- and worst-case scenarios, in-season betting angles and the offseason market that I think is most exploitable as of writing.

For fantasy analysis, check out Ian Hartitz’s excellent 2023 Commanders preview.

Player stats from Pro Football Reference and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted. Historical sports betting data from Sports Odds History and Action Network (via Bet Labs).

2023 offseason odds

2023 special teams

• Special Teams Coordinator: Nate Kaczor
• assistant Special Teams Coach: Ben Jacobs

Kaczor has been coaching since 1991 and in the NFL since 2008, when he joined then-HC Jack Del Rio’s Jaguars as assistant ST coach (2018-11). After that he spent time with the Titans (2012 assistant OL coach, 2013-15 ST coordinator) and Buccaneers (2016-18 coordinator) before joining the Commanders in 2019 under the Gruden regime and being retained by Rivera in 2020. Last year the Commanders were No. 7 in special teams DVOA.

Jacobs is an NFL LB veteran who played for the 2013-18 Panthers, retired, and then joined the 2019 Panthers as the assistant ST coach and followed Rivera to Washington. 

Projected 53-man roster

Here are my preliminary projections for the team’s 53-man roster.

Quarterbacks

• Starter: Sam Howell
• Backups: Jacoby Brissett, Jake Fromm
• Notable Turnover: Carson Wentz (free agent) & Taylor Heinicke (Falcons)
• Unit Ranking: No. 32

Sam Howell is a second-year fifth-rounder who looked passable (7.6 adjusted yards per attempt, 5-35-1 rushing) in his one start (Week 18) last year — but it was just one start at the very end of the season. A moxie-filled three-year starter at North Carolina, Howell has excellent college passing stats (9.9 AY/A) and entered his final season as a candidate for the No. 1 pick, but his year-over-year aerial production declined in 2021 (11.1 AY/A to 9.0 AY/A) after his four top pass catchers all left school for the NFL (WRs Dyami Brown and Dazz Newsome, RBs Javonte Williams and Michael Carter).

Even with his newfound dual-threat ability (183-828-11 rushing, including sacks), Howell’s 2021 performance was enough to kickstart his draft process slide, which culminated in his Day 3 fall to the Commanders.

Howell has potential. In his brief action last year, he was (almost?) acceptable (although it’s a negative sign that he was the third-stringer behind Carson Wentz and Taylor Heinicke until Week 18). And in the preseason he has looked good.

Last year, he completed 62.3% of his pass attempts for 547 yards and one touchdown (to one interception) and flashed with 13-94-2 rushing. This year, he has bumped his completion rate up to 75.7% and converted his 37 attempts into 265 yards and three touchdowns with no turnovers. There’s a real chance that Howell could turn out to be a capable NFL starter.

But as of now we should assume that he’s probably just a little bit better than the typical second-year fifth-rounder — and that’s not good. But it’s a positive sign that he easily won the No. 1 QB job this offseason over Jacoby Brissett, a 30-year-old high-floor/low-ceiling bridge/backup now on his fourth team since 2020.

With 48 starts and the experience of playing behind QBs Tom Brady, Andrew Luck, Philip Rivers, Tua Tagovailoa and Deshaun Watson, the knowledgeable Brissett can hopefully share his wisdom with Howell and serve as something of a player mentor. And if he’s pressed into action, Brissett should give the Commanders a chance to compete: Last year, he looked good in his 11 starts with a 7.0 AY/A.

Jake Fromm is a 2020 fifth-rounder already on his third team after the Commanders signed him to their practice squad last year. A productive but physically limited three-year starter at Georgia, Fromm is essentially Howell minus the rushing ability. In his two NFL starts with the Giants in 2021, he completed just 45.0% of his passes for a 1.6 AY/A. I’ve had better.

Projections as of Aug. 22.

Offensive Line

• Starters: LT Charles Leno, LG Saahdiq Charles, C Nick Gates, RG Sam Cosmi, RT Andrew Wylie
• Backups: OT Cornelius Lucas, C/G Ricky Stromberg, C/G Tyler Larsen, T/G Braeden Daniels
• Borderline: OG Chris Paul
• Notable Turnover: RG Trai Turner (Saints), LG Andrew Norwell (free agent), C/G  Wes Schweitzer (Jets), C Nick Martin (free agent) 
• Unit Ranking: No. 27

Leno is a 31-year-old blindside bookend who joined the Commanders in 2021. With 128 starts and a Pro Bowl on his record, Leno has been a strong pass blocker throughout his career (he hasn’t had a PFF grade lower than 70.0 since 2015, his first year as a starter), but he’s the only Week 1 OL who started for the Commanders last year at the position he’s playing this year.

Charles is a 2020 fourth-rounder who played a career-high 290 snaps last year as an injury fill-in and had a career-low 43.6 PFF grade. Gates joins the Commanders after spending the previous half decade with the Giants. A 2018 UDFA, he started all 16 games at C in 2020 but suffered a nasty season-ending leg injury in Week 2 of 2021 and didn’t return to the starting lineup until Week 10 last year, when he played mainly at LG. Gates is a sufficiently league-average two-phase blocker. 

Cosmi is a 2021 second-rounder who started each of the past two seasons at RT and was actually decent there (71.6 and 74.9 PFF grades), but he’s kicking inside to RG this year to make room for Wylie, a 29-year-old veteran who spent the past six years with and made 59 starts for the Chiefs. An acceptable but unexceptional player, Wylie has one great asset: His long-term familiarity with Bieniemy’s system.

Lucas is a 32-year-old journeyman who has set up camp for the past three years with the Commanders, where he has made 27 starts as the swing tackle. An above-average pass protector and improving run blocker, Lucas might actually be a better RT option than Wylie.

Stromberg is a scheme-independent four-star third-round rookie who started four years in the SEC and has experience at all three interior spots but needs to refine his technique in the NFL. Larsen is theoretically redundant next to the younger and more pedigreed Stromberg, but his overall experience and specific familiarity with Rivera and OL coach Travelle Wharton stemming from his time on the 2016-19 Panthers and 2021-22 Commanders give him an edge. A good pass blocker, the 32-year-old Larsen has 29 career starts.

Daniels is a fourth-round rookie who started out at Utah at LG (18 starts), moved to RT (11) and finished at LT (14). He probably lacks the size (6-foot-4 and 294 pounds) to play on the interior in the NFL or to be a strong run blocker, but he has good athleticism (4.99-second 40-yard dash) and allowed just five sacks in his college career. Paul is a 2022 seventh-rounder who made one forgettable start at LG last year in Week 18.

Defensive Line

• EDGE Starters: Chase Young, Montez Sweat, 
• EDGE Backups: James Smith-Williams, Efe Obada, Casey Toohill, K.J. Henry
• DT Starters: Jonathan Allen, Daron Payne
• DT Backups: Phidarian Mathis, Abdullah Anderson, John Ridgeway
• Injured: DTs David Bada (triceps) & Curtis Brooks (undisclosed)
• Notable Turnover: DT Daniel Wise (Chiefs)
• Unit Ranking: No. 5

Young was the No. 2 pick in 2020, when he made the Pro Bowl and won Defensive Rookie of the Year with 7.5 sacks, but since then he has just 1.5 sacks and has played only 12 games due to a severe knee injury (ACL, patellar tendon) that ended his 2021 and delayed his 2022 campaigns. Still, Young is a capable pass rusher and strong run defender who has never finished with an overall PFF grade lower than 75.0, and he could ball out as a contract-year player in his first full post-injury season. 

Sweat is a 2019 first-rounder who — like Young — hasn’t had an overall PFF grade lower than 75.0 over the past three years. He dominates against the run and has 22 sacks in Del Rio’s defense.

Smith-Williams is a 2020 seventh-rounder capable of giving consistently barely subpar production as a regular rotational edge rusher. Obada is a 31-year-old journeyman who played football with the London Warriors in 2014, joined the NFL in 2015 via the International Player Pathway Program and then caught on with Rivera’s Panthers in 2017 after spending two years on various practice squads. He can be counted on to give league-average second-string play due to his years of familiarity with the system (2017-19 Panthers, 2022 Commanders).

Toohill is a 2020 seventh-rounder with two sacks on 761 career snaps. Henry is a five-star fifth-round rookie project who has great athleticism (4.63-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-4 and 251 pounds) and football character (team captain), but his college production didn’t match his ability (13 sacks for career), and he lacks the strength to set the edge against the run.

Allen and Payne played together at Alabama and have years of experience working off of each other in the interior. Allen is a 2017 first-rounder who is a sufficient run defender but exceptional pass rusher with 16.5 sacks in his two 2021-22 Pro Bowl campaigns. He has the flexibility to play over the tackle as a true five-technique or to line up in the B gap.

Payne is a 2018 first-rounder with the size (6-foot-3 and 320 pounds) to play in the A gap, the speed (4.95-second 40-yard dash) to play in the B gap and the ability to play the run while rushing the passer. He made his first Pro Bowl last year with a career-high 11.5 sacks.

Mathis is a four-star 2022 second-rounder out of Alabama — I guess the Commanders have an interior DL type — who suffered a torn meniscus in Week 1 last year and missed the rest of the season. As a senior, he had nine sacks and 53 tackles as a strong two-phase producer.

Anderson is a 2018 UDFA journeyman now on his seventh team since 2020. He’s an average-at-best run defender but has never had a PFF pass rush grade below 62.5. Ridgeway is a 2022 fifth-rounder who had a 48.9 PFF grade on 279 snaps as a rookie.

Off-Ball Linebackers

• Starters: Jamin Davis, Cody Barton
• Backups: David Mayo, Khaleke Hudson, Milo Eifler
• Notable Turnover: Cole Holcomb (Steelers) & Jon Bostic (free agent)
• Unit Ranking: No. 21

Davis and Barton are asset/liability doppelgängers. Davis (2021 first-rounder) is a great tackler (75.7 PFF grade last year) but poor cover man (81.3% career completion rate). Barton (2019 third-rounder, offseason addition) is a great tackler (77.1 PFF grade) but poor cover man (74.8% completion rate). They’re both unnotable as pass rushers.

Mayo is a 30-year-old veteran who played for Rivera’s 2015-18 Panthers and joined the Commanders in 2021. He’s sufficient against the run but — like Davis and Barton — exploitable in coverage. Hudson (2020 fifth-rounder) and Eifler (2021 UDFA) are core special teamers.

Secondary

• CB Starters: Kendall Fuller, Emmanuel Forbes, Benjamin St-Juste
• CB Backups: Danny Johnson, Rachad Wildgoose, Jartavius (Quan) Martin
• S Starters: Kamren Curl, Darrick Forrest
• S Backups: Percy Butler, Jeremy Reaves
• Injured: CB Troy Apke (shoulder)
• Borderline: CB Christian Holmes
• Notable Turnover: CB Williams Jackson (free agent), S/CB Bobby McCain (Giants)
• Unit Ranking: No. 17

Fuller is a 2016 third-rounder who opened his career with the Commanders, went to Kansas City in 2018 in exchange for QB Alex Smith and then returned to Washington in 2020 on a four-year deal. Although he started out in the slot, he shifted to the perimeter when he returned to the Commanders and has been solid outside, allowing 7.0 yards per target and snagging eight interceptions over the past three years.

Forbes is an All-American first-round rookie with significant size concerns (6-foot-1 and 166 pounds) but great speed (4.35-second 40-yard dash), legitimate recruitment pedigree (four stars), lots of experience (three years as an SEC starter) and unreal ballhawking production (14 career interceptions, six pick-sixes).

He’s the ultimate “size of the fight in the dog” player. St-Juste is a 2021 third-rounder who has played primarily outside with the Commanders, but he seems poised to slide inside to make room for Forbes. With his size (6-foot-3 and 200 pounds), he’ll be a physical matchup for power slot receivers and good supporter in the run game, but St-Juste has been exploitable in coverage through two seasons (9.0 yards per target).

Johnson is a 2018 UDFA special teamer who has stepped up as a defender over the past two years (5.7 yards per target). With true/inside versatility, he’s a capable No. 4 CB with a shot to supplant St-Juste. Wildgoose is a 2021 sixth-rounder who underperformed (50.7 PFF grade) on 196 snaps last year. 

Martin is a second-round rookie who started at corner as a freshman, shifted to safety as a junior, and then settled in as the “star”/nickel as a super senior. He’s not big (5-foot-11 and 195 pounds), but he has good speed (4.46-second 40-yard dash) and can be an NFL slot, where the Commanders have played him throughout the preseason.

Holmes is a 2022 seventh-rounder who played 322 special teams snaps last year, got hyped as a training camp standout this summer, and then balled out in the preseason (90.1 PFF coverage grade). I’m not sure how — but somehow I think he’ll make the team.

Curl is a 2020 seventh-rounder who started 11 games as a rookie despite being a 21-year-old Day 3 pick, and he has improved steadily since then, finishing last year with PFF grades above 80 in both coverage and run defense. Best in the box but comfortable deep, Curl is one of the league’s best safeties yet to make a Pro Bowl. Forrest is a 2021 fifth-rounder who started 11 games last year and handled himself well (54.3% completion rate).

Butler is a 2022 fourth-rounder who got exposed (48.7 PFF grade) last year on 134 snaps, many of which came in Week 18. Reaves is a 2018 UDFA who has been an average-at-worst defender on 793 snaps over the past half decade, but he shines on special teams, where he racked up an absurd 16 tackles last year and earned a first-team All-Pro designation.

Specialists

• Kicker: Joey Slye
• Punter: Tress Way
• Holder: Tress Way
• Long Snapper: Camaron Cheeseman
• Kick Returner: Antonio Gibson
• Punt Returner: Dax Milne
• Borderline: P Michael Palardy

Slye is a 2019 UDFA who kicked for Rivera’s Panthers as a rookie and then journeyed his way via the Texans and 49ers to the Commanders in 2021. In his 23 games with the team, Slye has an 88.1% conversion rate and is 5-of-7 converting on attempts of 50-plus yards.

Way is a 33-year-old Commanders lifer who has been with the team since 2014. He has two Pro Bowls, one of which he earned last year, but he’s had lingering back tightness throughout training camp and hasn’t played in the preseason. If he’s unready for the beginning of the season, then Palardy (a 31-year-old veteran who played for the 2016-19 Panthers) will step in. 

Cheeseman is a 2021 sixth-rounder who has been long snapping for the team for two years. That the Commanders bothered to spend a draft pick on him means either that he’s good or they’re stupid. Maybe both.

Gibson was the primary kick returner for the Commanders last year and averaged a respectable 23.1 yards per return (the league average was 22.8). As a senior at Memphis, he was a dynamic specialist with a 28.0-yard average and one touchdown on 23 returns. Milne had a league-high 40 punt returns last year but subpar 7.8-yard average. In college, he averaged 5.0 yards. He’s not a great returner.

Schedule analysis

Here are my notes on the Commanders’ strength of schedule and a pivotal stretch of games that I think will shape how their season unfolds.

• Strength of Schedule: No. 24
• Home Division: NFC East
• Opposing Division: NFC West, AFC East
• Key Stretch: Weeks 6-10
• Opponents: at ATL, at NYG, vs. PHI, at NE, at SEA

The Commanders have the ninth-hardest schedule based on the market win totals of their opponents — but I think it’s realistically worse than that: They don’t have their bye until Week 14, their games are disadvantageously sequenced (in my opinion), and they have more matchups on the road (nine) than at home (eight). Only twice all year are they favored (Week 1 vs. Cardinals, Week 5 vs. Bears), and then after that they play four-of-five away.

Although there are other stretches of the season that I think are harder (Weeks 2-4, Weeks 13-18), this middle stretch has my attention because it’s the point in the schedule where the Commanders will need to accumulate wins if their season is not to be an absolute disaster. In Weeks 2-4 and 12-18, the Commanders are underdogs of at least +3 in every game but one. They could realistically go 0-9. So they need to get some wins in Weeks 6-10… and they’ll need to do it largely on the road, as underdogs in every game, with a second-year QB who will still have fewer than 10 NFL starts to his name.

Best of luck.

2023 worst-case scenario

As a pessimist, I think this is the realistic worst-case scenario for the 2023 Commanders.

• Owner Josh Harris becomes embroiled in scandal because of a New York Times report — which drops shortly before Week 1 — alleging longtime workplace misconduct and embezzlement with the 76ers and Devils.
• GM Martin Mayhew publicly questions some of his coach’s end-game decisions following a close Week 3 home loss to the Bills.
• HC Ron Rivera walks off the field to a sustained standing ovation after a dramatic come-from-behind Week 5 home win over the Bears during which — at halftime — Adam Schefter breaks the news that Rivera plans to retire after the game because his cancer has returned.
• OC Eric Bieniemy is named interim HC and immediately proves himself incapable of managing both the team and the offense.
• DC Jack Del Rio is caught on camera quarreling with Bieniemy on the sideline in the fourth quarter of a Week 8 blowout loss at home to the Eagles and needs to be restrained by other coaches.
• QB Sam Howell struggles for the first half of the season and is benched at halftime in a Week 9 road loss to the Patriots.
• RB Brian Robinson dominates the rushing work in the backfield but averages 3.7 yards per carry while blocking RB Antonio Gibson’s path to opportunity.
• WRs Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson and Curtis Samuel hold a players-only meeting in Week 11 to address the negative-minded culture in the clubhouse — and a fight breaks out between the offense and defense.
• TE Logan Thomas stays healthy enough to play 16 utterly ineffective games.
• The OL crumbles around LT Charles Leno.
• EDGE Chase Young underperforms in the first month of the season and then suffers a hamstring pull that causes him to miss most of the second half.
• DTs Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne both openly question the direction of the franchise in talking with the press following an embarrassing home loss to the Dolphins right before the Week 14 bye.
• LBs Jamin Davis and Cody Barton pretend that coverage isn’t a real thing — they simply don’t believe in it.
• CB Emmanuel Forbes is repeatedly bullied by physical receivers and is finally made into a meme in Week 17 when he finds himself matched up all alone in man coverage against 49ers TE George Kittle, who outmuscles Forbes to catch a deep ball and then drags him 15 yards on his way to the end zone, where he finally stiff arms him into the ground at the goal line.
• PR Dax Milne scores a last-minute return touchdown in a meaningless Week 18 home game against the Cowboys to give the team a win, which ensures that the Commanders won’t have a top-two pick in the 2024 draft.
• Commanders go 4-13 (losing eight straight games after Rivera retires), fire Mayhew and Bieniemy and hire former HC Joe Gibbs to lead the search for the team’s next GM and HC, only for him to recommend Mike Shanahan as GM and Del Rio as HC.

2023 best-case scenario

As an idealist, I think this is the realistic best-case scenario for the 2023 Commanders.

• Owner Josh Harris quickly endears himself to Washington fans by running a series of promotional giveaways and acting like a perfectly normal and nice human.
• GM Martin Mayhew admonishes a reporter for asking about Rivera’s employment status following a close Week 3 home loss to the Bills.
• HC Ron Rivera makes an impassioned halftime plea to his team — in what later becomes famously known as the “War of Men” speech — to trust each other and give everything they have to the effort at hand… and the team comes back from 20 points to get a key Week 5 win, which ends a three-game losing streak and kicks off a seven-game winning streak. 
• OC Eric Bieniemy shows that he’s not Andy Reid’s personal assistant.
• DC Jack Del Rio coordinates a top-five defense and starts to get a little buzz as a potential HC candidate.
• QB Sam Howell plays like a second-year QB who should’ve been drafted in Round 1.
• RBs Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson both have 1,000 yards from scrimmage.
• WRs Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson and Curtis Samuel become one of the few trios in NFL history all to have 100 yards receiving in the same game in a Week 11 home blowout victory over the division rival Giants.
• TE Logan Thomas loses his starting job to John Bates, whom fans nickname “The Butler” thanks to his willingness to do all sorts of dirty work for the offense. 
• The OL solidifies around LT Charles Leno, who makes his second Pro Bowl.
• EDGE Chase Young gets some Defensive Player of the Year hype and even some low-key Comeback Player of the Year buzz on his way to finishing No. 2 in the league with 17 sacks.
• DTs Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne tell reporters to print it in bold — “The Commanders will make the playoffs” — following an embarrassing home loss to the Dolphins right before the Week 14 bye.
• LBs Jamin Davis and Cody Barton act as if coverage is at least something they should pretend to care about.
• CB Emmanuel Forbes wins Defensive Rookie of the Year and seals the deal with a game-clinching pick-six on his NFL-leading seventh interception of the year at home against the 49ers in Week 17.
• PR Dax Milne scores a last-minute return touchdown in a must-win Sunday Night Football Week 18 home game against the Cowboys to give the team a victory and send it to the postseason.
• Commanders go 10-7, beat the Lions by a field goal on the road on Super Wildcard Weekend thanks to a Howell-led game-winning drive and then lose by 27 points to the Eagles in Philadelphia in the Divisional Round.

In-season angles

I view the Commanders as a strong “bet against” team primarily because of Howell, although I don’t especially trust Rivera as a coach.

In my opinion, one of the telltale signs of a bad coach is significant underperformance with lots of extra time to prepare. And Rivera has it.

• Rivera Off Bye: 5-10 ATS (28.9% ROI for faders)
• Rivera Off Bye: 6-9 ML (33.4% ROI for faders)  

If Howell smashes early in the season then I will quickly adjust my prior assumptions, but right now the Commanders look like a team I want to go against.

I will say this to the team’s credit: The defense is good, and it has a chance to be great. Over the past three years, the Commanders have been the No. 2 team in the league in profitability to the under at 31-18-2 (21.0% ROI), and a lot of that is because of their defense. 

If there’s a time this year when I’m relatively bullish on the Commanders, it will likely be because of their defense, and in that case my enthusiasm will probably manifest itself in an under — which is very on brand for me.

Data from Action Network, includes playoffs.

Offseason market to exploit

I normally don’t like to bet into a low-upside futures market unless we have a no-hold scenario. That’s not the case with the Commanders win total, where we’re close to the customary 20 cents of juice.

• Over 6.5 Wins: +100 (FanDuel)
• Under 6.5 Wins: -118 (BetRivers)

Ideally, if I like the over on a team’s win total, I’d like to leverage my bullishness at longer odds. Similarly, if I’m on the under, I could maybe level up my bearishness by betting the team not to make the playoffs at longer odds or maybe to score the fewest points in the league.

But in this case the best number for the Commanders not to make the playoffs is -340 (Caesars), and I don’t like them at +1000 (DraftKings) to lead the league in scoring futility: I have them projected for No. 3 in fewest points, so it’s within the range of outcomes, but if Howell is bad then the team could opt to jumpstart the offense (in theory) by benching him and playing Brissett, who is enough of a professional veteran to keep the offense from totally tanking.

So if you want to fade the Commanders, then the best option to do that is probably the win total market.

And I want to fade them. Hard.

Commanders Under 6.5 Wins (-118, BetRivers)

I have the Commanders projected for 5.4 wins. That’s the second-lowest in my projection set, higher than only the Cardinals.

So if you wanted to go into the alternative market and bet under 5.5 wins at +150 (DraftKings), I wouldn’t hate it (although I’d like to have longer odds for giving up an entire win).

And if you want to bet on the Commanders to have the league’s worst record at +1500 (FanDuel), where they have “only” the seventh-shortest odds (behind the Cardinals, Buccaneers, Texans and Rams, Raiders, and Colts), I’d see the virtue in it. That’s an intelligent way to leverage the thesis of “Commanders could be really bad this year.” It could hit. We know that their new owner — based on “The Process” with the 76ers — isn’t afraid to watch a team tank.

But I’ll stick with under 6.5 wins. Given his standing in the league and the organization, Rivera (I think) is unlikely to be fired midseason, and if he’s in Washington for the entire year he’ll keep the Commanders respectable enough to prevent them from finishing with the No. 1 pick in the 2024 draft.

But this team (in my opinion) has the league’s worst QB situation, given that it’s starting a second-year fifth-rounder with one NFL start to his name. It has vast uncertainty on offense with a new coordinator who doesn’t have a record of success calling plays. And it has yearly volatility on defense.

You put all that together, and it pushes me to under 6.5 wins: One of my favorite bets of the year.

You can tail the under on BetRivers, where you can get a free bet of up to $500 if your first bet loses when you sign up for a new account below!

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