Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns

• Spread: Bengals -2.5 (DraftKings)
• Total: 47.5 (DraftKings)
• Moneylines: Bengals -134 (FanDuel) / Browns +118 (Caesars)

There’s no better way to start the NFL season than with a divisional rivalry. The Bengals enter this matchup as the favorites in the AFC North after posting a 12-4 record last season, but even though the Browns went a disappointing 7-10 in 2022, optimism is high surrounding them in 2023. Cleveland is +375 to win the division, but they’re one of the favorites to earn a Wild Card spot at +250 on BetMGM.

The biggest reason to believe in improvement for Cleveland is Deshaun Watson. He didn't look like himself after returning from a nearly two-year layoff last season, averaging just 6.0 adjusted yards per attempt with seven TDs and five INTs. However, it’s fair to say that Watson had a lot of rust to shake off.

The last time we saw Watson play a full season in 2020, he was arguably the best QB in football. Watson's 4,800 passing yards led the league that year, and he threw 33 TDs with just seven INTs. The fact that he accomplished that on a Houston team with minimal supporting talent makes it all the more impressive.

Watson certainly has more working for him with the Browns this season than he did when he was with the Texans. Amari Cooper, Elijah Moore, and Donovan Peoples-Jones give him a solid trio at WR, David Njoku is a former first-round draft pick at TE, and Nick Chubb is one of the most efficient RBs in NFL history.

If Watson can rediscover the magic that he had in Houston, the Browns have the potential to be one of the best offenses in football. Of course, Cleveland's outlook is based solely on potential at this point, whereas Cincinnati's has a track record of production.

Joe Burrow led the Bengals to the AFC Championship game for the second straight year last season, but they ultimately came up just short against the Chiefs. It was his first loss to Mahomes after piling up wins in their first three matchups.

Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) watches from the sideline in the second quarter of the NFL Preseason Week 1 game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Green Bay Packers at Paycor Stadium in downtown Cincinnati on Friday, Aug. 11, 2023. The Packers led 21-16 at halftime. Photo Credit: Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK

That’s not an outlier. Burrow has pretty much won against everyone since his second year in the league. He’s 22-10 during the regular season over that stretch, and he’s added an additional five playoff wins.

When it comes to covering the spread, no one has been better than the Bengals over the past two years. They’re a sparkling 27-13 including the playoffs, good for a +29.7% return on investment. Overall, a $100 bettor would be up nearly $1,200 if they took the Bengals in each game over that time frame.

Offensively, the team should look pretty similar in 2023. They retained their top playmakers in Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Joe Mixon, and Tyler Boyd, and Burrow remains one of the best QBs in the league.

If anything, the offense could take another step forward after having made some upgrades to the offensive line. Cincinnati spent big money on Orlando Brown in free agency, one of the top offensive tackles available. The Bengals' offensive line wasn’t exactly a weakness in 2022, but they’re now spending the fifth-most money at the position in the NFL, and the line could blossom into a true strength in 2023.

The bigger questions are on the defensive side, particularly in the secondary.

Cincinnati lost both starting safeties from last year, including a stud in Jessie Bates. They’ll be relying on some unknown commodities at both safety positions this season, and none of their cornerbacks ranked inside the top 32 at the position per Pro Football Focus. We currently have the Bengals’ secondary ranked as the 14th-best unit, but I think that’s still a bit optimistic. I’d personally have them ranked closer to 20th.

Fortunately, Cincinnati does boast an excellent front seven, which should help mitigate any potential issues on the back end.

The Bengals will take the field as short road favorites in Week 1, and given how dominant they’ve been against the spread over the past two years, it’s tough to bet against them. That said, there are some solid trends working in the Browns’ favor.

For starters, divisional underdogs tend to fare well at the start of the year. They’ve gone 61-39-2 against the spread in Week 1 dating back to 2005, and they’re 18-8 ATS over the past five seasons. Divisional home dogs, specifically, have gone 24-13 ATS, good for a +26.5% return on investment.

Additionally, non-playoff teams from the prior season have been very profitable when starting the year against a team that made the playoffs. Those squads have gone 72-51-2 against the spread.