Broncos @ Bears Week 4 Game Preview
Chris Allen breaks down the Week 4 matchup between the Denver Broncos and Chicago Bears from a fantasy football and betting perspective.
Before we get started, someone needs to hang this in the Louvre.
The sad part is, other than a football field looking like a war zone with bodies strewn about, Denver had shown signs of life over the prior two weeks. Russell Wilson wasn’t cooking. But HC Sean Payton had at least given him a spatula.
After a conservative season opener, Wilson’s aDOT and deep-ball rate picked up. And, critically, his accuracy was back. From 2017 to 2021, Wilson was first in completion percentage over expected. After Week 3, he’s third. Regardless, I’ll get to reasons why he (and the rest of Denver) is struggling in a bit.
But if the Broncos are struggling, Chicago’s in agony.
Both teams may be winless, but the gap between Denver and the Bears is palpable. The Bears are one of three teams that rank in the bottom 5 for average yards and EPA per drive. And it feels that way. Justin Fields has been in the media for, well, nothing good. His offensive success rates over the past two weeks (37.9% and 36.4%) are lower than last year’s spot starts from Trevor Siemian (40.0%) and Nathan Peterman (36.8%).
Again, it’s easy to find fault when both squads are still looking for their first win. But let’s dig into the Broncos’ offense to find some fantasy nuggets worth considering for Week 4.
Denver ranks 22nd in pass rate over expectation. Now, that’s not much of a surprise. Over the offseason, they signed two offensive linemen, added Samaje Perine, and used three of their five draft picks on their defense. Balanced football looked like their plan. However, the problem for fantasy comes with who Wilson throws to when he lets one fly.
Spoiler alert: it’s everyone. Wilson throws to everyone.
Fourteen different Broncos have earned at least one target. Accordingly, Wilson is 23rd among all QBs in how often he targets WRs.
So, what about Jerry Jeudy? The early-round receiver we were so sure would be Wilson’s guy? He’s fifth(!) on the team in targets per route run since his return.
What about Marvin Mims, the rookie who’d benefit from Jeudy’s absence? Mims has run fewer routes than Lil’Jordan Humphrey. Lil. Jordan. Humphrey.
Courtland Sutton is the only WR who’s made good on his ADP. And players fitting his archetype have dominated the Bears’ secondary. Romeo Doubs (5-26-2) started hot in Week 1, and Mike Evans (8-171-1) kept things going in Week 2. I’d need to see more snaps from Mims and targets to Jeudy to feel bullish about starting either, and then there’s always the backfield to consider.
Javonte Williams has a strong hold on Denver’s running game (55.4% of the team’s rushing attempts), but the efficiency isn’t there. He’s behind Najee Harris and Devin Singletary in success rate (30.6%) and has fewer explosive plays (3) than Alexander Mattison. Luckily, he’s earned more targets than half the Broncos’ pass-catchers, giving him a solid floor in PPR formats.
Sep 24, 2023; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields (1) runs the ball against Kansas City Chiefs defensive end Mike Danna (51) during the second half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
On Chicago’s side, it’s all on Justin Fields.
The Bears are 26th in PROE. And, honestly, the RBs are doing their part.
Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson rank in the Top 15 for EPA per rush. It just doesn’t feel efficient, as neither has cracked 100 yards on the season. To be fair, splitting carries (32.4% to 23.9%) between them with a mobile QB doesn’t help matters. But Chicago isn’t sustaining enough drives for their contributions to make an impact in fantasy.
And the offensive line? Well, they’re also doing their job.
The Bears are one of two teams that rank in the top 5 in run and pass block win rate. They’re also league average in yards before contact per attempt (1.2). However, having a QB with the highest average time to throw (3.26 seconds) will make any blocking unit look bad.
Blame coaching, scheme, or whatever you want. Fields has been a disaster for fantasy. His 99-yard outing in Week 3 barely surpassed Joe Burrow’s disastrous Week 1 (82 yards). But we drafted Fields for his rushing. Or at least on the premise OC Luke Getsy would deploy Fields as a runner.
Taysom Hill (16) has more designed attempts than Chicago’s franchise QB (12).
As the Bears’ production has dwindled each week, so has our fantasy interest. D.J. Moore stands alone as the only viable fantasy starter in traditional leagues. You could stream Luke Musgrave over Cole Kmet.
And please, seek spiritual guidance if forced to start Chase Claypool, who inexplicably has just one fewer target than Moore.
Moore’s 34.2% air yard share on 15 targets (team lead) has kept him as a viable WR2. And with strong performances from previous team WR1s (Davante Adams 9-66-0, Terry McLaurin 6-54-1, Tyreek Hill 11-157-1), there’s some hope for the Bears’ best receiver.