Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Minnesota Vikings

• Spread: Vikings -6.0 (Caesars)
• Total: 45.5 (Caesars)
• Moneylines: Buccaneers +210 (Caesars) / Vikings -245 (DraftKings)

Both of these teams managed to make the playoffs last season, but both teams appear poised for significant regression. The Vikings are only +115 to make it back to the postseason per DraftKings Sportsbook, and the Buccaneers sit at +400 to make the playoffs in 2023.

The regression in Tampa Bay stems primarily from Tom Brady’s retirement. Brady is widely considered the GOAT, so it’s going to be tough to fill his shoes.

That said, Brady wasn’t exactly Brady-like in 2022. He did lead the league in passing attempts for the second straight year, but his production fell off a cliff. Brady logged 17 fewer TD passes last year than he did in 2021, and his 6.5 adjusted yards per attempt in 2022 was one of the worst marks of his career. In fact, you'd have to go all the way back to 2002, Brady’s first full year as a starter for the Patriots, to find a lower adjusted yards per attempt for him.

Of course, not all of that was Brady’s fault. He was playing behind a terrible offensive line that finished the year 25th in pass block win rate and 31st in run block win rate. Brady adapted by getting rid of the ball more quickly than any other QB in the league, and his quick decision-making was able to salvage what could've been a disastrous season for the Buccaneers.

Now that Brady’s gone, can Baker Mayfield do the same? That seems like a real long shot.

Aug 26, 2023; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) looks to the sidelines against the Baltimore Ravens during the first quarter at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports

Mayfield will take the field for his fourth franchise since 2021, and the former No. 1 overall pick has failed to impress at any stop along the way. He averaged just 6.6 adjusted yards per attempt in his final year with the Browns in 2021, and that dipped to 6.0 with the Panthers and Rams last year.

Making matters worse, Tampa Bay had zero run game to speak of in 2022. They clocked in with a 63.7 run grade per Pro Football Focus (PFF), which was the worst grade in the league by a wide margin. They were also dead last in rushing yards, rushing TDs, and rushing yards per attempt.

The Buccaneers’ offensive line will be a weakness once again in 2023. They’ve allocated the third-least cap space in the league to that unit, and they just lost starting center Ryan Jensen to a season-ending injury.

On the other side, the Vikings could also regress due to their record in close games last season. It’s fair to say that Minnesota was one of the luckiest teams in history in 2022, going a perfect 11-0 in one-score games, which was an NFL record. They overcame nine second-half deficits, including four double-digit deficits.

Part of that can be attributed to good coaching and player performance, but pure, dumb luck also played a factor.

Take last year’s comeback against Buffalo for instance. The Bills had the ball up by four points with less than a minute left on the clock. They were taking possession at their own one-yard line, but all they had to do was avoid a turnover to basically guarantee a win. Instead, Josh Allen fumbled, and the Vikings secured an overtime victory.

Believe it or not, Minnesota was actually outscored by their opponents last season. That gave them an expected win-loss record of 8.4-8.6. In the first three-quarters of 2022 games, the Vikings were outscored by a ridiculous 87 points, which was the third-worst mark in the league. How in the world this team managed to actually win 13 games remains one of life’s great mysteries.

Aug 26, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson (18) leaves the field before a game against the Arizona Cardinals at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

The Vikings do still possess one of the best football players in the world in Justin Jefferson, which makes life easier for everyone. However, Kirk Cousins quietly took a few steps back last year, posting his worst marks in a Vikings uniform in completion percentage, adjusted yards per attempt, and TD rate.

Heading into 2023, Minnesota's offense will also be without Dalvin Cook. Cook was by no means an elite RB by the end of his tenure with the Vikings, but he still graded out better than Alexander Mattison in most metrics last year.

Over the past two seasons, 74 RBs have had at least 100 carries. Among that group, Mattison ranks just 68th in yards per carry and 45th in success rate, which shouldn’t make you feel warm and fuzzy inside. Mattison might still provide some value in fantasy football, but he doesn’t figure to be a true difference-maker for the Vikings in real life.

Ultimately, the sharps appear to believe that this is too many points to be giving the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay has received 75% of the spread dollars on just 48% of the bets, which has driven this number down from 6.5 to 6.0 points.

I personally would’ve preferred to get the Buccaneers at a full TD (and that could still happen sometime before kickoff), but even at 6.0 points, I still think that Tampa Bay is the correct side.