Buffalo Bills 2023 Betting Preview

Last year, the Bills went 13-3 and were No. 2 in both offensive and defensive scoring — but they have seemingly regressed in each of the past two postseasons. 

It’s one thing to lose to the Chiefs in the Conference Championship (2020-21) and the Divisional Round (2021-22), but it feels different to lose to another team — the Bengals (2022-23) — in the Divisional Round. This year, the Bills once again have Super Bowl aspirations and potential, but they also have the accumulated pressure that comes with a dream forcefully deferred.

In this 2023 Bills preview, we will look at the team’s offseason odds in various markets, my personal team projections and player projections for guys who might have props in the season-long markets. 

I'll also dive into my projections for the 53-man roster with notes on each unit as well as the general manager and coaching staff, a schedule analysis, best- and worst-case scenarios, in-season betting angles and the offseason market that I think is most exploitable as of writing.

For fantasy analysis, check out Ian Hartitz’s excellent 2023 Bills preview.

Player stats from Pro Football Reference and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted. Historical sports betting data from Sports Odds History and Action Network (via Bet Labs).

Buffalo Bills 2023 offseason odds

Projections as of June 12.

Offensive Line

• Starters: LT Dion Dawkins, LG David Edwards, C Mitch Morse, RG O’Cyrus Torrence, RT Spencer Brown
• Backups: T/G David Quessenberry, G Connor McGovern, G/C Ryan Bates, T Brandon Shell
• Borderline: OT Tommy Doyle, G Ike Boettger, C Greg Mancz
• Notable Turnover: LG Rodger Saffold (free agent), G/C Greg Van Roten (Raiders)
• Unit Ranking: No. 12

Dawkins is a second-contract, pseudo-franchise blindside protector with back-to-back Pro Bowl accolades. He has never had a PFF pass-blocking grade lower than 76.2. Edwards is an upset pick to beat out McGovern and Bates for a starting spot, given that he was the starting LG for the 2020-22 Rams. He’s a mediocre pass-blocker but an above-average run-game mauler. 

Morse has 109 starts at the pivot in his eight-year career (the past four with the Bills) and was finally named to the Pro Bowl in 2022. Torrence is an All-American rookie with second-round draft capital, four years as a starter, experience at both guard spots and the will to destroy run defenders. Brown is an unnotable third-year bookend with poor pass-blocking chops. He might quietly be pushed for his starting spot in camp.

Dec 24, 2022; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) calls signals against the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Sabau-USA TODAY Sports

Quessenberry is a hard-nosed backup who didn’t earn his first NFL start until the age of 30. He was unremarkable last year as a spot starter for the Bills, but he offers inside/outside versatility and veteran know-how. McGovern got $9.9M in guarantees at signing, and he’s a better pass blocker than Edwards — but he has been more of an opportunity-blessed backup than true starter to this point. 

Bates started at RG last year and has played snaps at every other position for the Bills, but he has backup-level talent. He filled in adequately at C last year when Morse was out, and his interior flexibility might make Mancz expendable. Shell is an unexceptional but steady, short-contract vet who has made 72 RT starts since his 2016 rookie season. He could push Brown for a starting spot and the young Doyle for a roster spot. 

Boettger made 17 LG starts in 2020-21 as the team’s top interior backup, but he missed most of 2022 to injury, and the offseason additions of Torrence, Edwards and McGovern make him a cut candidate.

Defensive Line

• EDGE Starters: Von Miller, Leonard Floyd
• EDGE Backups: Gregory Rousseau, Shaq Lawson, Boogie Basham, A.J. Epenesa  
• DT Starters: Ed Oliver, DaQuan Jones, 
• DT Backups: Poona Ford, Tim Settle, Jordan Phillips
• Unit Ranking: No. 9

Miller is a 34-year-old, first-ballot Hall-of-Famer who hasn’t had 10 sacks in a season since turning 30. He might be ready to open the year after suffering a season-ending Week 11 ACL tear, but the Bills can’t count on him to be the player he once was. 

Floyd was a first-round disappointment for the Bears, but he amassed 29 sacks for the 2020-22 Rams and is a shrewd offseason signing for the Bills. Rousseau is a 2021 first-rounder with the upside to build on his eight-sack second-year campaign. 

Lawson is a first-rounder-turned-journeyman who opened his career with the Bills and prodigal son-ed his way back last year to give the hometown team 500-plus league-average snaps. Basham is a second-round, third-year body with pass-rushing potential (73.3 PFF grade last year). Epenesa is a contract-year second-rounder who had a career-high 6.5 sacks in 2022.

Oliver is a second-contract first-rounder with notable interior pass-rushing abilities but no elite skill set. Jones has made 125 starts since 2015 and has steadily improved as a pass-rusher. Last year, he had a career-high five sacks in his first season with the Bills (including playoffs). 

Ford is a strong buy-low offseason addition: He had a career-worst 56.6 PFF defense grade last year, but in his first four seasons he was a near-elite run defender with technique versatility and the ability to line up at nose. Settle had a mediocre 2022 in his first season with the Bills. He’s never been a strong run defender, but he was an above-average pass rusher in the first four years of his career with Washington. 

Phillips is entering the second year of his second stint with the Bills. In eight years, he has never had a PFF defense grade better than 62.7, but he has elite size (6-foot-6 and 330 pounds) — and in 2019 he had an outlier career-high 9.5 sacks in his first full season with the team.

Off-ball Linebackers

• Starters: Matt Milano, Terrel Bernard
• Backups: Dorian Williams, Tyler Matakevich
• Borderline: Tyrel Dodson, A.J. Klein 
• Notable Turnover: Tremaine Edmunds (Bears)
• Unit Ranking: No. 11

Milano is a five-year starter who has evolved from 2017 fifth-rounder to 2022 first-team All-Pro. A near-elite coverage defender, Milano is one of the few off-ball linebackers who matter. Bernard is a 2022 third-rounder who will battle with Williams and maybe even Dodson and Klein for Edmunds’ vacated starting job. He’s a coverage liability, but last year as a rookie Bernard had a strong 75.5 PFF run-defense grade, which theoretically makes him a good complement to the small-ish non-thumping Milano. 

Williams is an athletic third-round rookie who was No. 9 in the FBS last year with 132 tackles and No. 1 on his team with five sacks. Matakevich played just three defensive snaps for the Bills in 2022, but he’s a plus coverage linebacker and ace special teamer. I expect he’ll beat out Dodson, who played a career-high 220 snaps last year but also had a career-worst 48.4 PFF grade. 

Klein is an average-at-best veteran who started for the Bills in 2020, backed up Milano and Edmunds in 2021, and then eventually returned to the team in 2022 as a depth player.

Secondary

• CB Starters: Tre'Davious White, Kaiir Elam, Taron Johnson
• CB Backups: Dane Jackson, Christian Benford, Cam Lewis
• S Starters: Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer
• S Backups: Taylor Rapp, Damar Hamlin, 
• Borderline: CB Siran Neal, S Dean Marlowe
• Notable Turnover: S Jaquan Johnson
• Unit Ranking: No. 6

White was slow to return last year from his 2021 season-ending ACL tear, but when healthy the 2019 first-team All-Pro is one of the league’s best shadow corners. Elam is a 2022 first-rounder who last year struggled to separate from Jackson and Benford. The team will look for him to develop in his second season. 

Johnson has played steady slot snaps ever since the Bills drafted him as a fourth-rounder in 2018, and he has rewarded their steadfastness with strong 75.3 and 73.2 PFF coverage grades over the past two years. Jackson is a middling 2020 seventh-rounder whose urgency outshines his talent. Benford is a 2022 sixth-rounder who might be less talented than Jackson but even more tenacious. Both are fine backups but wanting starters. Lewis is a special-teams standout whose slot corner/safety versatility could push longtime backup Neal off the roster.

Hyde and Poyer are somewhat interchangeable defensive chess pieces who have been starting alongside each other since 2017, when they both joined the Bills as second-contract free agents. Since then, they have formed the league’s best safety duo — but they’re both 32 years old, and Hyde missed almost all of last year with a neck injury. Even though Poyer was a first-team All-Pro in 2021, he and Hyde both carry risk. 

If one of them goes down, he’ll be replaced by Rapp, a veteran acquisition who can play both safety spots and is coming off a career-best year with 76.9 PFF coverage and 82.3 PFF run-defense grades. His presence on the team is especially important given that we don’t know what to expect from Hamlin, who played 845 snaps last year in place of Hyde before suffering cardiac arrest in Week 17. If Hamlin isn’t ready for the start of the year, a roster spot could open up for Marlowe, who has played 550-ish forgettable snaps for the Bills since 2018.

Specialists

• Kicker: Tyler Bass
• Punter: Sam Martin
• Holder: Sam Martin
• Long Snapper: Reid Ferguson
• Kick Returner: Nyheim Hines
• Punt Returner: Nyheim Hines

Bass has a solid 85.6% field goal rate for his three-year career and an almost automatic 97.5% extra point rate. Martin is a league-average veteran who had 47.7 yards per punt last year in his first season with the Bills. Ferguson has been long snapping for the Bills since 2017. Hines dominated return work for the Bills last year and is a strong asset with six career return TDs (four kick, two punt), but he might cede some usage to Harty, who himself is a capable returner, especially on kicks (25.4 yards per return for his career).

Schedule analysis

Here are my notes on the Bills’ strength of schedule and a pivotal stretch of games that I think will shape how their season unfolds.

• Strength of Schedule: No. 29
• Home Division: AFC East
• Opposing Division: AFC West, NFC East
• Key Stretch: Weeks 9-16
• Opponents: at CIN, vs. DEN, vs. NYJ, at PHI, BYE, at KC, vs. DAL, at LAC

The Bills have the league’s fourth-hardest schedule this year based on the market win totals of their 2023 opponents: That’s what happens when you have a 13-3 record one year and then get matched up against the AFC West and NFC East the next year. But the Bills don’t have any situationally terrible spots. For instance, at no point in the season do they have back-to-back road games.

But they do have a tough stretch in Weeks 9-16 that kicks off with a Divisional Round rematch on the road against the Bengals on Sunday Night Football. After that, they get their only “gimme” in this period: a home game vs. Denver on Monday Night Football. 

That said, we’re in typical “trap game” territory — and maybe there’s no such thing as a “gimme” against a coach like Sean Payton. Following that, the Bills have a divisional rematch with a rest deficit at home against the Jets and then a road game against the Eagles before getting a late bye in Week 13.

In Week 14, the Bills travel to Kansas City to face the Chiefs and then return home to host the Cowboys — and then turn around and travel back west to play the Chargers on the road in primetime on the Saturday (Dec. 23) of Week 16.

If catastrophe strikes, the Bills could legitimately go 1-6 in that stretch. All of these games have a path to defeat. If, though, the Bills do well in this seven-game stint, they could enter Week 17 as the frontrunners for the No. 1 seed in the AFC.

2023 worst-case scenario

As a pessimist, I think this is the realistic worst-case scenario for the 2023 Bills.

• McDermott can’t handle the amplified responsibilities of being both coach and coordinator.
• Dorsey regresses in his second season as the offensive play-caller.
• Allen plays with too much aggression and carelessness in big moments and ties his career high with 15 interceptions and 14 fumbles. 
• Cook plays like a 190-pound back, and Harris plays like a plodder.
• Diggs yells at Allen on the sideline several times throughout the season when he doesn’t get the ball, and Davis fails to develop.
• Kincaid falls behind Knox on the depth chart and can’t find his way onto the field.
• None of the starting guard candidates stands out in the preseason.
• Miller is a shell of his former self, and Floyd disappoints without a strong pass-rushing presence drawing attention.
• Oliver takes it easy now that he has been paid.
• Bernard and Williams disappoint as Milano’s platoon mates. 
• White is sapped of his athleticism, and Elam gives up multiple chunk completions every game.
• Hyde misses time due to complications with his neck injury, and Poyer slows down due to age.
• Bass suffers a random string of bad luck on end-of-game attempts.
• Bills squeak their way to a 9-8 record with two wins to close the year, but they still miss the playoffs in a tough AFC East, resulting in McDermott’s termination.

2023 best-case scenario

As an idealist, I think this is the realistic best-case scenario for the 2023 Bills.

• McDermott easily handles the challenges of coaching and coordinating thanks to the strength of his defensive staff.
• Dorsey improves upon his first year as a playcaller and guides the Bills to No. 1 in scoring.
• Allen airs the ball out with strategic abandon and racks up 5,000 yards passing and 50 total touchdowns on his way to winning MVP.
• Cook and Harris combine to form a somehow-it-works lightning-and-thunder backfield.
• Diggs eats his fill with 1,500 yards, and Davis submits a prime Kenny Golladay-like 1,000-10 receiving season.
• All four guards prove themselves worthy of being starters.
• Miller borrows Adrian Peterson’s other ACL, and Floyd benefits with 10-plus sacks.
• Bernard and Williams give the Bills an unexpectedly robust linebacking unit.
• White returns to his All-Pro form, and Elam punishes opposing QBs who target him.
• Hyde and Poyer rage against the dying of the light.
• Bass becomes a cult hero with clutch late-game kicks in inclement weather.
• Bills earn the No. 1 seed in the AFC, exorcize their demons with emphatic home victories over the Bengals and Chiefs, and win their first Super Bowl on a last-second 47-yard field goal that sneaks just inside the right upright. Sometimes history writes itself.

In-season betting angles

I view the Bills as a strong “bet on” team that will likely offer the most advantage as an underdog based on the following trends.

• Allen as Underdog: 16-10-2 ATS (17.6% ROI)
• Allen as Underdog: 12-16 ML (30.0% ROI)

Allen has also been profitable on the road.

• Allen on Road: 22-15-2 ATS (13.3% ROI)
• Allen on Road: 23-16 ML (20.2% ROI)

I’m not certain this is actionable, but McDermott has consistently been a strong opener and closer through six seasons.

• McDermott in Weeks 1-4: 16-8 ATS (27.9% ROI)
• McDermott in Weeks 1-4: 17-7 ML (56.1% ROI)
• McDermott in Weeks 14-18: 15-8-2 ATS (24.1% ROI)
• McDermott in Weeks 14-18: 18-7 ML (8.5% ROI)

And Patriots HC Bill Belichick’s defense has regularly struggled against dual-threat QBs, which means that Allen is attractive against New England in Weeks 7 and 17. 

• Allen vs. Patriots: 7-2-1 ATS (43.9% ROI)

Right now, I don’t see myself wanting to bet against the Bills at any point this season.

Data from Action Network, includes playoffs.

Offseason betting market to exploit

I don’t currently like any of the team futures markets for the Bills, but I do think there’s a profitable bet available in the QB market.

Josh Allen Under 4,350.5 Yards Passing (-115, DraftKings)

This line for Allen at DraftKings is the highest of anywhere I’ve seen. His yardage prop is as low as 4,201.5 at BetMGM, so there’s decent line-shopping value here.

On top of that, I have him projected for 4,145.9 yards, so I think I’m getting a little over 200 yards of intrinsic value.

Allen passed for 4,283 yards last year in 16 games, and he had 4,407 yards in 17 games the year before that.

But I’m projecting the Bills to score fewer points this year (25.6 per game vs. 28.4 last year), and with fewer points usually come fewer overall offensive yards.

There are multiple ways for the under to hit: Allen could miss time to an injury, the Bills offense could regress, the team could shift to more of a run-focused attack, opposing defenses could slow down drives by deploying more two-high shells, etc.

But there’s really only one way the over hits: Allen continues to be awesome, and the offense continues to crush. That’s possible. Maybe even likely. But even if both those conditions are met, the under could still hit.

I don’t plan on betting against Allen and the Bills this season, but when it comes to season-long player props I don’t mind fading great players.

You can follow my lead on DraftKings Sportsbook, where you can get up to $1,000 in DK Dollars when you create a new account below!

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