Arizona Cardinals at Washington Commanders

Buckle up Cardinals fans, it’s going to be a long season. Arizona made the decision to play for the future when they traded their first-round pick to the Texans during the 2022 NFL Draft, and that move could pay huge dividends in the long run. That said, there's not much to be excited about for this team in 2023.

The Cardinals will likely have the worst starting QB in football this season. Kyler Murray is not going to play to start the year, and if they struggle as expected, it wouldn’t be a huge shock if he were to miss the entire season.

Arizona also made the somewhat surprising decision to cut Colt McCoy. He had operated as the starter for most of the offseason, leaving the team with Joshua Dobbs or fifth-round rookie Clayton Tune as the likely starter heading into Week 1. Neither of those options inspires much confidence.

Dobbs started two games for the Titans last year, and he posted an 0-2 record while averaging just 5.3 adjusted yards per attempt. He does provide a bit of upside with his legs, but it's not enough to get anyone excited.

Ironically, Tune’s best comparison per Player Profiler is Dobbs. He’s an above-average athlete for the position, but Tune is a long shot to make an impact at the NFL level. In other words, the Cardinals’ current QBs should position them perfectly to draft Caleb Williams in 2024.

They’ll head to Washington as seven-point underdogs, and the Commanders aren't exactly an elite opponent. That’s just a taste of what’s to come.

The Cardinals will likely be underdogs in all 17 games this season, and their win total over/under sits at just 4.5. That’s the lowest mark in the league, and I’m still tempted to take the under. Our Unit Rankings have the Cardinals at 25th or worse at every single position across the board.

The Commanders at least have some reason for optimism. They’ll hand the reins to Sam Howell, who missed nearly all of last season with an injury. However, he did manage to play in the team’s final game of the year, and Howell led them to a 26-6 win over the Cowboys.

Aug 21, 2023; Landover, Maryland, USA; Washington Commanders quarterback Sam Howell (14) attempts a pass against the Baltimore Ravens during the first half at FedExField. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

Howell has kept the good times rolling into this preseason. He completed more than 75% of his passes for 265 yards and three TDs with a 122.0 Quarterback Rating. We should take preseason performance with a grain of salt, but Howell was once considered a top QB prospect. Unlike Tune, it wouldn't be a huge surprise if he turned out to be an NFL-caliber QB.

If Howell can keep the offense afloat, Washington's defense can carry them to some wins. The Commanders were one of the best pass-rushing teams in football two years ago, but they dropped off last season without Chase Young. With a healthy Young back in the fold, the Commanders have the potential to become an elite pass-rushing unit once again.

Unsurprisingly, no one wants to bet the Cardinals in this game. This line has ballooned up to a full TD after opening at 6.0, and 66% of the spread bets have sided with the Commanders.

The question is: do the Commanders really deserve to be favored by that much? Seven points is a lot for the first game of the year.

Historically, underdogs of at least seven points have gone 32-21-0 in Week 1. There’s only one other team favored by at least a TD in Week 1, and that’s the Ravens against the lowly Texans. Given that Washington's season-long win total is set at just 6.5, do they really belong in that conversation?

Ultimately, this play will come down to who the Cardinals decide to start at QB. If they give the nod to Dobbs, a somewhat seasoned veteran, I'll probably take the points for Washington.

If they opt to start Tune, you could make a decent case to bet on Arizona. Rookie QBs are just 10-29 straight up in the first four weeks of the season over the past five years. Plus, most of those rookie QBs were much more accomplished coming out of college than Tune, so the Commanders’ pass-rush could make his first game very unpleasant.