Dolphins @ Bills Week 4 Game Preview
Chris Allen breaks down the Week 4 matchup between the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills from a fantasy football and betting perspective.
I know this is just a game preview, but I wonder how many DFS rosters will revolve around this game.
They combined for 107 points last week. The Dolphins rank first in EPA per play, and the Bills are nipping at their heels (fins?) at third. And both offenses are succeeding in the ways we want for fantasy.
After a shaky season opener, Josh Allen is back in the Top 10 after dicing up the Commanders in Week 3. The Bills are eighth in pass rate over expectation (PROE), Allen is second in completion percentage over expected (CPOE), and tied for the fifth-most passing touchdowns. Everything looks as expected.
Well, almost everything.
Part of Allen’s appeal for fantasy was his mobility. The 6’5” 237 lb. passer will still take off when needed, but it’s not as frequent compared to years past. Allen has a career-low 4.7% designed rushing rate through three weeks. We’ll dive in a bit more in a minute, but the shift hasn’t been as detrimental for fantasy.
Sep 24, 2023; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) congratulates running back Raheem Mostert (31) after scoring a touchdown against the Denver Broncos in the third quarter at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
On the flip side, Miami looks like they’re going to the Super Bowl. If I could pinpoint any change in Tua Tagovailoa’s game from last year to now, it’s swagger. The man has style. And his demeanor has filtered down to the rest of the team. It’s not much of a surprise the Bills are favored by slightly less than a field goal (-2.5) at home. Regardless, let’s dive into the Dolphins’ offense (get it? Dive? Because they’re Dolphins.) and see who all we can trust in our rosters.
OK, start everyone from Miami.
Wait, sorry. I should clarify.
Tua has the lowest pressure rate of any QB through three weeks. As a result, he simultaneously has the fastest average time to throw (2.24 seconds) and the fourth-highest passing aDOT (9.6 yards). But it’s not like the entire passing game relies on explosive plays.
On throws of 10 air yards or less, Tua is averaging 0.54 EPA per dropback. For reference, Patrick Mahomes’ best single-season mark across all throws was 0.33. But Mahomes didn’t have the same juice Tua currently has at his disposal.
Well, Mahomes did have Tyreek Hill. The vet speedster accounts for 34.7% of the team’s targets. He’s everywhere. Hill has generated more first downs (21) than DeVonta Smith’s earned targets (20). And after solid outings from other WR1s (Garrett Wilson 5-34-1, Davante Adams 8-84-1, Terry McLaurin 6-41-0), Hill will garner most of the attention from the Bills’ secondary. But then, that leaves the short area of the field open for attack from Miami’s backfield.
Buffalo’s defensive front is yet to give up a rushing score, but they’re no stranger to an explosive play or two. Breece Hall got loose for an 83-yard scamper, and Brian Robinson broke free for a 23-yarder on Sunday. It’d be a shame if the Dolphins had runners with speed.
Oh, wait. De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert rank in the top 20 for explosive rushing rate. Yep, start all your Dolphins.
And I’d take a similar approach with the Bills’ offense, too.
As I mentioned, Josh Allen’s rushing rate has declined relative to last year. So, we’ve got more volume to distribute to his pass-game options. And we’ve got a couple extra this year.
Don’t worry, though. Stefon Diggs is still Allen’s go-to guy. With a 30.2% target share, Diggs has more looks than the next two Bills’ receivers combined. The former Viking trails only Adam Thielen (another former Viking) in pass attempts thrown their way in obvious passing situations. With Courtland Sutton (11-91-1), DeVante Parker (8-57-0), and Keenan Allen (9-76-0) turning in solid days against the Miami defense, we can expect similar output from Diggs.
But I’m most interested in Buffalo’s backfield.
James Cook has taken over the Bills’ ground game with 51.2% of the team’s carries. He ranks in the top 10 in rushing success rate and target share. For an RB to be this efficient with this much opportunity, with Josh Allen as his QB, we should value him like a top-6 fantasy asset.
There’s just one problem: his high-value touch rate.
Here’s how the carries from inside the 10-yard line have shaken out for Cook so far:
- Latavius Murray: 6
- Damien Harris: 4
- Cook: 3
Allen’s penchant for scrambling into the paint muddies the waters even more for the sophomore rusher. But at least he’s shown to be capable in every other facet of his game. And against the Dolphins, Buffalo will need everything Cook can offer.
Pass-catching RBs have averaged 4.9 PPR points just on their work through the air. Meanwhile, the only RB not to score on the ground against the Dolphins was Javonte Williams (likely because the Broncos were trailing the entire contest). Cook may be lacking the coveted red-zone role, but his workload as a rusher and receiver should keep him in the fringe-RB1 discussion for Week 4.