Dolphins @ Chargers Week 1 Game Preview
Chris Allen previews the Week 1 matchup between the Dolphins and Chargers with analysis on all the players and trends you need to know.
Betting Overview
Game Analysis
I can’t even try to hide the amount of fantasy goodness between the Dolphins and Chargers to start the 2023 season.
Look at the projected total. Vegas has two games in Week 1 with projected totals over 50 points: one features Patrick Mahomes, and we’re talking about the other here. But fantasy gamers probably already knew this would be a game to watch on Sunday.
Look at the skill players on either team. By ADP, you won’t leave the early rounds without seeing six names from this game come off the board. And I might’ve had some things to say about a late-round TE you’ll see running around in SoFi Stadium that day. Regardless, drafters heavily invested in both squads, so let’s break it down starting on the Miami side.
If the preseason is any indication, the Dolphins’ passing attack will pick up where it left off in 2022. When Tua Tagovailoa was under center, Miami had a +5.3% pass rate over expected (PROE). Only the Chiefs, Bills, and Bengals threw the ball more. But none of them had the same depth. Tua’s 10.1 passing aDOT ranked second in the league. And with his receiving options, it’s easy to see why.
Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle (aka “The Blur Brothers”) accounted for 67.4% of Tua’s yards. Across his 12 healthy games, Hill (3.43) and Waddle (3.13) were first and second in yards per route run (YPRR). They were both top 10 in total YAC. And, theoretically, their ability to turn a big gain into six points would put them at an advantage.
The Chargers allowed the third-highest explosive pass rate last season (9.9%). But Chargers’ HC Brandon Staley doesn’t slouch when it comes to defensive game planning.
Dec 25, 2022; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill (10) celebrates with wide receiver Jaylen Waddle (17) after catching the football during the second quarter against the Green Bay Packers at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports
Tua’s average time to throw was 2.5 seconds in his 12 other games. He got the ball out as fast as Joe Burrow. But when Tua faced LA last season, it was like his controller got disconnected while playing Madden. He averaged 2.76 seconds to throw and only mustered eight first downs.
A third option in the aerial attack would keep the offense moving, and the Dolphins added a viable solution through the draft.
De'Von Achane averaged 7.5 YAC per reception over his final two seasons at Texas A&M. Albeit different positions, Jaxon Smith-Njigba (7.6) and Jordan Addison (7.0) were similarly devastating in the open field. Regardless, Achane should force a different approach from the Chargers defensively. So while Jeff Wilson and Raheem Mostert will dominate the carries, Achane’s likely usage in obvious passing situations and two-minute snaps will be the X-factor for Miami’s offense.
Meanwhile, the Chargers are probably happy to have a healthy starting offense.
Justin Herbert spent most of the season nursing fractured rib cartilage, his starting left tackle went down in Week 3, and he was without at least one of his primary WRs for 11 games. But it didn’t stop LA from throwing the ball.
Despite the injuries, the Chargers were among the six teams in the Top 10 for overall PROE and red-zone PROE. But Herbert’s 7.0 aDOT ranked just ahead of Matt Ryan. However, with him back healthy and the Dolphins’ secondary already ailing, we might be in for some fireworks from the Bolts.
Unfortunately, Miami didn’t get beat deep often and allowed the ninth-lowest explosive play rate in ’22. So, teams took to the interior. Pass-catchers manning the slot totaled 11 of the 26 passing touchdowns scored against the Dolphins last season.
As a result, fantasy managers should have Keenan Allen locked into one of their starting spots come Week 1.
The 31-year-old veteran had a 64.3% snap rate from the inside last season. And, when healthy, led the Chargers’ receivers in red-zone targets. But his (and Mike Williams’) absences pushed the team to add another option for Herbert. And with Quentin Johnston showing out in the preseason, LA has a better shot at moving the chains.
Most fans clamored for the Chargers to add a speedster, which would fit with the cannon attached to Herbert’s right shoulder. However, I valued efficiency over speed when thinking about ways for LA to improve their passing game.
The Bolts’ ancillary receivers couldn’t crack the Top 100 in YPRR. Accordingly, Herbert’s aDOT continued to drop without Williams or Allen on the field. Johnston certainly has the athletic profile to create explosives, but having an intermediate target to convert third downs will be critical against the Dolphins.
But, of course, so is Austin Ekeler. While Miami’s defensive front was top 8 in rushing EPA and success rate allowed, Ekeler’s dual-threat ability keeps every opponent on their toes. He was the only RB with top-5 marks in red-zone carry rate and overall target share. And with Miami allowing the fourth-most PPR points to RBs, Ekeler will remain in the RB1 discussion to start the season.