Philadelphia Eagles 2023 Betting Preview

Last year, the Eagles went 14-3 in the regular season, won the No. 1 seed in the NFC, dominated the Giants (38-7) and 49ers (31-7) in the playoffs, and barely lost to the Chiefs (38-35) in the final minutes of the Super Bowl. This year, they are widely expected to be one of the NFL’s best teams.

In this 2023 Eagles preview, we will look at the team’s offseason odds in various markets, my personal team projections and player projections for guys who might have props in the season-long markets.

I'll also dive into my projections for the 53-man roster with notes on each unit as well as the general manager and coaching staff, a schedule analysis, best- and worst-case scenarios, in-season betting angles, and the offseason market that I think is most exploitable as of writing.

For fantasy analysis, check out Ian Hartitz’s excellent 2023 Eagles preview.

Player stats from Pro Football Reference and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted. Historical sports betting data from Sports Odds History and Action Network (via Bet Labs).

Philadelphia Eagles 2023 offseason odds

Market	Consensus Odds	Rank	Implied Probability
Jalen Hurts	Marcus Mariota, Tanner McKee	Gardner Minshew	Jalen Hurts	Rashaad Penny	D’Andre Swift	Kenneth Gainwell	Boston Scott	Miles Sanders	D’Andre Swift	Rashaad Penny	D'Andre Swift	Kenneth Gainwell	A.J. Brown	DeVonta Smith	Quez Watkins	Olamide Zaccheaus	Britain Covey	Dallas Goedert	Jack Stoll	Grant Calcaterra	Dan Arnold	Tyree Jackson	Zach Pascal	A.J. Brown	DeVonta Smith	Quez Watkins	Olamide Zaccheaus	Dallas Goedert

Projections as of June 12.

Offensive Line

Starters: LT Jordan Mailata, LG Landon Dickerson, C Jason Kelce, RG Cam Jurgens, RT Lane Johnson
Backups: OT Jack Driscoll, G Sua Opeta, OL Brett Toth, OT Tyler Steen
Borderline: C/G Cameron Tom, OT Roderick Johnson, T/G Fred Johnson
Notable Turnover: RG Isaac Seumalo (Steelers), LT Andre Dillard (Titans)
Unit Ranking: No. 3

The Eagles have an undoubted top-five offensive line. Mailata is an in-his-prime stalwart blindside protector. Dickerson entered the league two years ago as a unanimous All-American Rimington Trophy winner as the best center in college football, but he has settled into the NFL as an above-average guard. Kelce turns 36 years old this season — but he’s a future Hall-of-Famer with five first-team All-Pro selections over the past six years. Jurgens is Kelce’s presumed pivot successor, but for now he’s the frontrunner to replace Seumalo after seeing little playing time last year as a rookie. Like Kelce, Johnson is advanced in age (33 years), but he is coming off a first-team All-Pro campaign and has a serious case for Canton.

Sep 19, 2022; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Eagles center Jason Kelce (62) against the Minnesota Vikings at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

Driscoll is a steady veteran who has made 16 starts at LT, RT, and LG across his three-year career. Similarly, Opeta has made five starts at LG and RG since 2020. With Driscoll and Opeta, the Eagles will hardly miss starter-turned-backup Dillard.

Toth was on PUP for 2022, but the team seems to value his versatility, given that he took snaps at C, G, and T in 2020-21. Steen was just selected near the top of Round 3 (No. 65 overall) with four years of starting experience in the SEC (12 starts at RT and 21 starts at LT at Vanderbilt in 2019-21; 13 starts at LT at Alabama in 2022). Tom and the Johnsons are all league-average backup-caliber veterans, and one of them could sneak onto the 53-man roster if the Eagles decide to keep 10 offensive linemen.

Defensive Line

EDGE Starters: Haason Reddick, Josh Sweat
EDGE Backups: Brandon Graham, Nolan Smith, Derek Barnett, Patrick Johnson
DT Starters: Fletcher Cox, Jalen Carter
DT Backups: Jordan Davis, Milton Williams, Kentavius Street, Marlon Tuipulotu
Borderline: DT Moro Ojomo
Notable Turnover: DTs Javon Hargrave (49ers), Ndamukong Suh (free agent), Linval Joseph (free agent), EDGE Robert Quinn (free agent)
Unit Ranking: No. 2

Reddick is a full-blown stud with 10-plus sacks in each of the past three seasons — with three different teams. Sweat is coming off a breakout 11-sack campaign and is still just 26 years old despite a half decade of NFL service. Graham has played all 13 years of his career with the Eagles and had a career-high 11 sacks in 2022 as a high-impact rotational pass rusher.

Smith was the No. 1 prospect in the 2019 recruitment class and could be an instant, albeit scaled-back, contributor as an undersized (6-foot-2 and 638 pounds) but athletic (4.39-second 40-yard dash) first-year Reddick acolyte. Barnett missed almost all of last season and could find himself in a reduced Quinn-like situational role, given that his career production (21.5 sacks) hasn’t matched his 2017 first-round investment. Johnson is a serviceable backup unlikely to see much playing time with the addition of Smith and return of Barnett.

Cox was a diminished version of himself last year (career-low 60.2 PFF defense grade), but he owns a long history of productivity (65 sacks, 85 tackles for loss) and availability (173 games) across 11 NFL seasons. Carter was a unanimous 2022 All-American and might have been a top-five pick in the draft if not for off-field issues. Blessed with Suh-like ability, Carter looks like the likely long-term replacement for Hargrave.

Davis enters his second NFL season ready to take over for Joseph as the team’s primary zero-technique run-stuffer. Williams logged 446 snaps last year and might actually play ahead of Carter given that he was the team’s best interior run defender in 2022 (73.5 PFF run defense grade). Street offers little against the run, but he does have nine sacks and 22 hurries as a rotational player over the past two years. Tuipulotu has just 12 tackles and four pressures in two years. He could lose his roster spot to seventh-round rookie Ojomo.

Off-ball Linebackers

Starters: Nakobe Dean, Nicholas Morrow
Backups: Christian Elliss, Shaun Bradley
Borderline: Davion Taylor
Notable Turnover: Kyzir White (Cardinals), T.J. Edwards (Bears)
Unit Ranking: No. 26

Dean played sparsely last year as a rookie behind departed starters White and Edwards, but he entered Georgia as a five-star recruit and left after three seasons as a unanimous All-American Butkus Award winner. He will probably be no worse than average as the team’s green dot defender.

A seasoned veteran, Morrow should be able to help Dean learn to lead — but he has been inconsistent in coverage and bad against the run throughout his five-year career. Elliss and Bradley are special-teams contributors, and either one of them could lose a camp battle to Taylor, who was on the practice squad last year but played ahead of them previously, making seven starts on defense in 2020-21.

Secondary

CB Starters: Darius Slay, James Bradberry, Avonte Maddox
CB Backups: Kelee Ringo, Greedy Williams, Josiah Scott
S Starters: Terrell Edmunds, Reed Blankenship
S Backups: Sydney Brown, Justin Evans, K'Von Wallace
Borderline: CBs Zech McPhearson, Eli Ricks
Notable Turnover: SS C.J. Gardner-Johnson (Lions), FS Marcus Epps (Raiders)
Unit Ranking: No. 5

Slay has returned to his early-career-Lions form with six interceptions and 23 passes defended over the past two years. Similarly, Bradberry had a bounce-back campaign in 2022 (second-best career mark of 77.1 PFF coverage grade) in his first year with the team. Maddox struggled the first few years of his career as the team experimented with him at different positions — he was brutal in 2020 as a perimeter cover man with just two pass breakups on 47 targets — but he has developed into an above-average slot defender since then.

Ringo was the No. 1 corner in the 2020 recruitment class and a two-year SEC starter at Georgia. He has the size (6-foot-2 and 207 pounds) and athleticism (4.36-second 40-yard dash) to develop into a starter. Williams (post-hype veteran) and Scott (injury fill-in for Maddox) are not locks to make the 53-man roster and will need to hold off McPhearson (subpar defender but core special-teams contributor) and Ricks (undrafted rookie with five-star pedigree).

Edmunds is an unremarkably solid box/slot defender who will be charged with replacing Gardner-Johnson after five starting seasons with the Steelers. Blankenship is a high-effort undrafted second-year free safety who has fallen into a starting job following the departure of Epps.

Brown is a ball-hawking rookie who had six interceptions last year: He will rotate with Edmunds and Blankenship and might eventually steal the latter’s job. Evans missed the 2019-21 seasons with injuries, but he showed promise as a deep defender with the Buccaneers in 2018-19 and was competent last year with the Saints. Like Brown, Evans too could push Blankenship for playing time. Wallace is a mediocre defender but a good special-teams tackler.

Specialists

Kicker: Jake Elliott
Punter: Arryn Siposs
Holder: Arryn Siposs
Long Snapper: Rick Lovato
Kick Returner: Britain Covey
Punt Returner: Britain Covey
Borderline: P Ty Zentner, PR Boston Scott

Elliott has a strong 89.3% field goal rate over the past two years and is 65.5% from 50-plus yards for his career. Siposs last year was No. 30 with 39.5 net yards per punt, and in 2021 he was No. 34 with 38.7. He could lose his roster spot to the rookie Zentner.

Lovato has one Pro Bowl selection in six years as a full-time NFL long snapper. Covey handled almost all the punt returns for the Eagles last year and had a respectable 9.3 yards per return. He was less dynamic as a kick returner (20.6 yards per return), which might allow Scott (27.1 in 2022) to keep his roster spot.

Eagles schedule analysis

Here are my notes on the Eagles’ strength of schedule and a pivotal stretch of games that I think will shape how their season unfolds.

Strength of Schedule: No. 7
Home Division: NFC East
Opposing Divisions: AFC East, NFC West
Key Stretch: Weeks 11-15
Opponents: at KC, vs. BUF, vs. SF, at DAL, at SEA

Despite reaching the Super Bowl last year, the Eagles have the seventh-easiest schedule this year based on the market win totals of their 2023 opponents. They have a double-sandwiched four-of-six away stretch in the first half of the year (A-H-A-A-H-A), but the Eagles play the Buccaneers, Rams and Commanders twice in those games, so it shouldn’t be a daunting challenge.

They could legitimately enter the Week 10 bye undefeated if everything aligns.

Right after the bye, they have a Super Bowl rematch against the Chiefs in Kansas City on Monday Night Football. That’s followed by back-to-back home games — but those are against the Bills and 49ers, both of which have top-five double-digit win totals (10.5).

Then the Eagles have back-to-back road games, first in Dallas against the division rival Cowboys on Sunday Night Football and then out west against the Seahawks, who have a true home-field advantage. All those teams made the playoffs last year, as did the division-rival Giants, whom they play in Weeks 16 and 18.

If the Eagles take care of business in Weeks 11-15, they’ll close the year with the No. 1 seed in their sights. If they struggle in Weeks 11-15, they might be competing directly with the Giants for a wild card spot in the final weeks.

2023 worst-case scenario

As a pessimist, I think this is the realistic worst-case scenario for the 2023 Eagles.

Sirianni coaches like a guy who lost his most important lieutenants.
Johnson and Desai underwhelm as coordinator replacements for Steichen and Gannon.
Hurts fails to develop as a pocket passer.
Penny misses most of the season with an injury and the smallish Swift, Gainwell, and Scott are unable to grind out tough yards between the tackles.
Watkins and Zaccheaus play ineffectively as the Nos. 3-4 receivers.
Stoll and Calcaterra continue to offer little as pass catchers.
Kelce and Johnson finally break down due to age.
Jurgens struggles in the transition from center to guard in his first season as a starter.
Graham declines because of age, Smith develops slowly, and Barnett meekly returns from injury.
Davis and Carter can’t play enough snaps to replace Hargrave, Suh, and Joseph effectively.
Dean and Morrow look lost as off-ball replacements for White and Edwards.
Slay and Bradberry both start to play like guys in their 30s.
Edmunds is inconsistent in his first year with the team, and no one steps up as a reliable free safety.
Elliott regresses to his pre-2021 form (82.2% field goal rate).
Siposs stays subpar.
Eagles barely make the playoffs and lose on Super Wild Card Weekend.

2023 best-case scenario

As an idealist, I think this is the realistic best-case scenario for the 2023 Eagles.

Sirianni gets even better in his third year.
Johnson and Desai adequately replace Steichen and Gannon — because they still have HC Nick Sirianni overseeing everything.
Hurts continues to develop as a pocket passer.
Penny and Swift stay healthy enough to form a productive committee.
Watkins and Zaccheaus exploit the opportunities they get against soft coverage.
Stoll and Calcaterra aren’t needed as pass catchers.
Kelce and Johnson play like the ageless wonders that they are.
Jurgens teams up with Dickerson to form a dominant guard duo.
The edge rushers dominate even more than they did last year thanks to the addition of Smith and return of Barnett.
Davis and Carter bring out the best in each other and form a generational interior duo.
Dean plays like a guy who should’ve been drafted on Day 1 and Morrow proves that off-ball linebackers don’t matter.
Slay and Bradberry roll back their 2022 dominance.
Edmunds does the job at strong safety, and Blankenship gets by on a combination of grit and spit.
Elliott maintains his 2021-22 form.
Siposs becomes average.
Eagles easily earn the No. 1 seed, dominate throughout the NFC playoffs, and avenge last year’s championship loss by beating the Chiefs in Super Bowl 58.

In-season betting angles

I view the Eagles as a moderate “bet on”/over team that will likely offer the most advantage at home based on the following trends.

Sirianni at Home: 11-7-1 ATS (16.4% ROI)
Hurts at Home: 13-5-1 ATS (36.8% ROI)
Sirianni & Hurts Over at Home: 11-6 (25.4% ROI)

I don’t see the Eagles as a “bet against” team — but if I were to fade them I would probably do it when they were underdogs and/or away from Lincoln Financial, based on these trends.

Sirianni as Underdog: 3-7 ATS (34.8% ROI for faders)
Sirianni on Road & at Neutral: 7-12 ATS (20.8% ROI for faders)

Data from Action Network, includes playoffs.

Offseason betting market to exploit

Under 11.5 wins (-110, DraftKings) has my eye, given that I have the Eagles projected for 10.9 wins, but I don’t want to make a low-upside bet this early in the offseason. If it’s still available closer to the season, I’ll consider it — but I don’t desire to fade the Eagles in general. Instead, I’ll look at the MVP market.

Jalen Hurts MVP +1200 (FanDuel)

After Week 15 last year, Hurts was a -150 frontrunner in the MVP race — and then his odds plummeted once news of his shoulder injury hit the market. Hurts missed Weeks 16-17, and QB Patrick Mahomes easily won the award with 48 of 50 first-place votes.

Now Hurts enters 2023 as the No. 4 option behind Mahomes (+700) and QBs Joe Burrow (+750) and Josh Allen (+800) in the MVP market. That doesn’t make sense to me.

In the NFC, Hurts has an easier path than Mahomes, Burrow, and Allen have to double-digit wins and a top-two seed. He has improved every year of his career. He has a top-three offensive line and pass-catching units. He can produce as both a passer and runner.

With +1200 odds (at FanDuel and Caesars), Hurts has a 7.69% implied probability to win MVP. Given his talent and circumstances, I think his true odds are around 10%.

You can tail the Hurts MVP bet on FanDuel, where you can take advantage of a No Sweat First Bet of up to $1,000 when you sign up below!