Raiders @ Chargers Week 4 Game Preview
Chris Allen breaks down the Week 4 matchup between the Las Vegas Raiders and Los Angeles Chargers from a fantasy football and betting perspective.
All I can do is laugh when I look at this game.
Not because of the fantasy implications. There’ll be multiple early-round picks on both sides of the ball. But the head coaches have some comedic value to folks who aren’t fans of the team.
Josh McDaniels, the offensive guru from New England, is leading a team that is below average in EPA per play. He’s also having to explain why his decision to kick a field goal down two scores was the right call. Meanwhile, on the other side, I don’t know what Brandon Staley would’ve done if the Chargers lost on Sunday. With Staley, a well-regarded defensive mastermind, LA ranks 29th in offensive success rate allowed.
Neither HC is living up to their billing. I imagine both coaches sitting down with the team owners having to explain what they do, like Tom Smykoski in Office Space.
At least they haven’t messed up how to deploy our favorite fantasy talents. And with the way this game looks on paper, we may see top-12 results from a few of them.
For the Raiders, their success hinges on the health of their QB. Jimmy Garoppolo is in the concussion protocol, leaving Las Vegas in the hands of either Brian Hoyer or fourth-round pick Aidan O’Connell. Hoyer’s thrown 41 passes in the last three years, and O’Connel was 11th in turnover-worthy plays during his final season at Purdue.
It’s not great.
But again, (hopefully) it’s hard to screw this up when you’ve got Davante Adams on the field.
At 30 years old, Adams leads the league in target share and is one of three WRs with over 50.0% of his team’s air yards. The savvy vet has a larger explosive play rate (27.0%) than the youngsters that just entered the league (Zay Flowers – 17.2%, Tank Dell – 19.0%). And it’s not like McDaniels has tried to hide Adams from high-end coverage.
We remember Adams’ schematic usage from Green Bay as one that invited layups from his QB. With Aaron Rodgers, Adams ran over 30.0% of his routes from the slot for two straight seasons. The Raiders deployed him similarly last year. But this year, his interior usage is down to 16.4%. He’s roasting perimeter DBs to the hysterical tune of 3.24 YPRR. That’s a higher mark than what Deebo Samuel has generated from the slot (3.10).
So, we can’t avoid Adams with his massive opportunity share, even if he’s hamstrung by whoever winds up under center. It does leave Jakobi Meyers (23.7% target share) as a mid-to-low range WR3. But my eye is on the backfield.
Sep 24, 2023; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Las Vegas Raiders running back Josh Jacobs (8) is tackled by Pittsburgh Steelers linebacker Elandon Roberts (50) during the fourth quarter at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports
Josh Jacobs at least turned in a positive yardage total after a brutal day at the office in Week 2. But he’s yet to find the paint as a rusher or receiver. However, he’s the only RB with more than 75.0% of his team’s carries and a target share over 15.0%. Plus, as I mentioned above, the Chargers’ defense is yet to hold anyone back in their games so far:
- Alexander Mattison: RB10
- Derrick Henry: RB13
- Raheem Mostert: RB18
Backup QB or not, we can’t discount Jacobs’ volume as a rusher and receiver. Even if the Raiders trail, his usage will keep fantasy managers happy.
On the Chargers’ side, everyone will have their eye on the passing attack in its first game without Mike Williams.
Joshua Palmer was the hot waiver add, and he’ll likely get the first crack at the WR2 role. Before Week 3, Palmer had the third-highest route rate (67.9%) with a few darts from Justin Herbert thrown his way. Plus, Palmer matched Keenan Allen in routes after Williams’ injury, which netted the third-year WR the game-winning TD.
So, starting Palmer against the Raiders makes sense. They’re the same secondary that’s given up touchdowns to Calvin Austin, Lil’Jordan Humphrey, and Khalil Shakir. But the Chargers’ running game will be everyone’s point of contention, assuming Austin Ekeler sits out another game.
I’ll say what everyone’s thinking: Joshua Kelley scammed us.
We watched him be more efficient (greater EPA per rush and success rate) and more explosive than Ekeler in Week 1. And then he let us spend most of our FAAB dollars on him. It was all a part of his plan.
There’s no other explanation for an RB to go from top 10 in multiple efficiency metrics to one of the stone worst. After two games as the Chargers’ starter, Kelley ranks 48th out of 51 RBs in success rate. He’s still behind Nick Chubb (170) in total rushing yards (142) with nearly six extra quarters of play. But facing Vegas may be his time to shine.
If you combine the Steelers’ RBs into one fantasy asset (14.7 points), you’d get a top-20 result. James Cook smoked the Raiders for 123 yards the week beforehand. We’ll have to lean on volume to trust Kelley in our lineups this week. Otherwise, Herbert and Allen will put on a better show than what most folks will find on the Vegas strip.