Saints @ Texans Week 6 Game Preview
Jonathan Fuller previews the Week 6 matchup between the Saints and Texans from a betting perspective.
New Orleans Saints @ Houston Texans
The Saints travel to Houston for their second straight road game and will hope to replicate the performance that saw them blow out the Patriots 34-0 in Week 5.
If you’re hoping for a shootout, that seems unlikely with the 16th and 32nd-ranked offenses in terms of neutral pass rate. Vegas agrees and has this game with a 42.5-point game total which ranks towards the bottom of this week’s slate.
Derek Carr bounced back with a two-TD performance last week and seems to be managing his shoulder injury okay, with his completion percentage and average depth of throw bouncing back against the Patriots.
The Saints passing game continues to flow through Chris Olave and Michael Thomas, who have accounted for a 52% target share and 70% air-yard share so far this season. After starting the season with a big game, Rashid Shaheed has been quiet since but continues to be involved in the offense and is a sneaky DFS option as Carr gets healthier.
This matchup doesn’t scream WR explosion, as other teams have primarily exploited the Texans via the RB and TE positions, but I’m not convinced they are a strong unit, so I would be comfortable rolling out Olave or Thomas in any league where I have them.
In the backfield, Alvin Kamara has logged two top-10 finishes on really strong usage in his first games back from suspension. He is locked into lineups again this week and will likely be a popular play in DFS and Battle Royale contests.
On the Texans' side, they have remained committed to the run in an effort to take pressure off their rookie QB and have started to have more success in recent weeks. Dameon Pierce remains the clear lead back and
It doesn’t look like a good matchup on paper against a staunch Saints defense that ranks in the top 6 against opposing QBs, RBs, and TEs. Pierce should still see plenty of volume but will probably need to get into the end zone to pay off this week.
CJ Stroud has been one of the best surprises of the season, with the third-most passing yards in the league so far this season. He is also one of only two QBs to start every game this season without throwing an interception.
Unfortunately for Houston, they will likely be without their talented rookie WR Tank Dell who suffered a concussion in Week 5.
This should give more opportunity to the likes of Nico Collins, Robert Woods, and Dalton Schultz, but it is tough to get too excited about them in this matchup. Collins is start-worthy in all formats, but I would need to be pretty desperate to turn to either of the other two in managed leagues.
The Saints are 1.5-point favorites at the time of writing, and they are the more experienced team in what will likely be a low-scoring close contest. However, I like the Texans' chances for a statement win at home to get back to 3-3 and keep them in contention in the AFC South, so I’ll be backing them to get a victory in this one.