Texans @ Jaguars Week 3 Game Preview

Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars

This AFC South showdown has the potential to be a sneaky fun game with two offenses that have created a lot of opportunity for fantasy points through two games. 

Both Houston and Jacksonville rank in the top 6 of Hayden Winks’ fantasy usage model for expected points at the WR position. 

For the Jaguars, the passing game is concentrated around their top three WRs, and it seems likely we will continue to see 1-2 of these guys hitting each week.

This week is a prime opportunity to bounce back from an underwhelming Week 2 outing against the Chiefs. The Texans' defense has struggled to slow opposing offenses across the board, but C.J. Stroud has been playing well enough to allow them to push their competition, the perfect recipe for a fantasy goldmine.

I’m really in on both Travis Etienne and Calvin Ridley for DFS and Battle Royale contests this week, as the Jaguars' offense should feature their two stars, who both failed to crack 5 PPR fantasy points in Week 2.

On the Texans side, Stroud is currently third in the NFL in pass attempts through two games which has allowed him to support multiple fantasy-relevant pass catchers. Nico Collins appears to be on his way to a true breakout season, while Robert Woods is a steady second option who can play multiple roles alongside Tank Dell and John Metchie.

While the passing game has been better than expected, the Texans’ rushing offense has had a slow start to the season. They have taken a committee approach so far with little success. Dameon Pierce has failed to get anything going so far, averaging just over 6 PPR points through two weeks.

The issues with the running game really boil down to the offensive line, which is without four of its five expected starters. This has resulted in Pierce getting hit behind the line of scrimmage consistently, as he has more yards after contact (70) than rushing yards (69) so far this season. 

Pierce is a buy-low candidate for me, as I think he will earn a greater share of the RB touches going forward and will benefit from better offensive line play when the starters return. You may want to wait one more week, however, as the Jaguars rank third for the fewest points allowed to opposing RBs this season.

One more down week, and the Pierce manager may be willing to move on from him for cheap. 

This has me wanting to play this game through the Houston pass catchers, as they could be forced into throwing a bunch this week. I have been targeting this game in a variety of ways in Underdog’s Battle Royale contests, as stacking Lawrence or Stroud is in play for me, with multiple bring-back options on both teams producing a bunch of fun combinations that can be had at a reasonable cost in drafts.

The Jaguars are understandably heavy favorites (-9.5 points at the time of writing), but this Texans team is playing hard and has more talent than they were given credit for over the summer. I expect a closer game than the current line suggests.