10 Things to Know For Week 12: The Best RB Handcuffs to Stash, a Rome Odunze Rebound and More

10 Things to Know For Week 12: The Best RB Handcuffs to Stash, a Rome Odunze Rebound and More

Only a couple weeks until the fantasy playoffs are here — don't be left on the outside looking in with these top RB handcuffs!

A mere three weeks separate us from the fantasy football playoffs. Immeasurable amounts of blood, sweat, and tears have been shed on fantasy rosters already–and we're not done yet, people!

I don't care if you're 11-0 or 0-11 (okay, the latter would really suck, and I'm sorry if that's the case), but yeah: Our sole focus is coming away with a W in Week 12. Cool? Cool.

This brings us to today's goal: 10 mostly fantasy-relevant things to know ahead of Week 12 that ideally will help make you both a better fantasy manager and overall person. This week's topics:

  1. Who is to blame between Patrick Mahomes and Xavier Worthy?
  2. Who are THE premiere handcuffs to stash on your bench?
  3. What man-coverage splits can we take advantage of for Week 10?
  4. What offenses have struggled to protect their QB in recent weeks?
  5. What QBs have performed the best under pressure?
  6. Week 11 RB Report: TreVeyon Henderson is getting FED
  7. The DST corner: Da Bears look like a quality Week 12 streamer
  8. Two key Week 12 ranking questions and answers
  9. One cool fact from every game that I find interesting for one reason or another
  10. Three bold calls for Week 12

As always: It's a great day to be great.

1. Who is to blame between Patrick Mahomes and Xavier Worthy?

The Chiefs won five of six games between Weeks 3-8 and were (again) looking like the class of the AFC. After all, Patrick Mahomes is still Patrick Mahomes, Rashee Rice was back from suspension, and speedster Xavier Worthy was healthy. This group should have been poised to put together one of the better stretches we've seen from this passing game in recent memory.

Or not. The Chiefs' last eight quarters of football have produced just 40 total points and one passing TD, as the Bills and Broncos proved plenty capable of slowing down Andy Reid and company. Of course, some members of the passing attack have managed to put up better counting numbers than others during this relative down stretch.

Chiefs PPR points per game this season:

  • Rashee Rice (19.3, WR5)
  • Hollywood Brown (10.5, WR46)
  • Xavier Worthy (9.8, WR49–not counting Week 1)
  • Tyquan Thornton (7, WR71)
  • Travis Kelce (13.9, TE5)

The key party sticking out there is Worthy, who seemed on the verge of balling the hell out upon racking up 121 total yards against the Ravens in Week 4 … but has since averaged just 38.8 yards per game with just one single TD across his last six contests.

The biggest issue has been Mahomes and Worthy's continued lack of chemistry on deep balls. The duo has connected on just four of 19 (21%) of their targets thrown 30-plus yards downfield–the 12th-lowest mark among 44 qualified WRs over the past two seasons. Not great, but I wanted to get a better idea of who exactly has been at fault on these deep passes. 

After going back and watching all 19 of these bombs…

  • 8 (42%) were neutral incompletions that either featured Worthy failing to come down with a contested target or Mahomes air-mailing him when there wasn't much separation.
  • 4 (21%) were picture perfect connections: A 54-yard bomb for a score against the Chargers, two 50-yard gains vs. the Eagles during the second half of the Chiefs' blowout Super Bowl loss, and a nice 37-yard hook-up against the Ravens in Worthy's first game back from injury this season. Hell yeah, brother.
  • 2 (11%) featured Worthy drift out of bounds and fail to get two feet down on what could have been big gains against the Buccaneers and Bills back in 2024.
  • 5 (26%) sure looked to be the fault of nobody other than probably the greatest QB of the post-TB12 era. You can judge these for yourself below.

While Worthy and Mahomes' 21.1% catch rate on these deep ball targets is not great, it's also not THAT far removed from what guys like Marquez Valdes-Scantling (25.9%), Demarcus Robinson (29.4%), Justin Watson (32.1%), Tyquan Thornton (36.7%), and even Tyreek Hill (36.7%) managed in Kansas City over the years. We're talking about Tyreek-level efficiency here with a better outcome on just three of these targets … but for whatever reason Mahomes simply hasn't been able to match that downfield chemistry with Worthy despite displaying far better accuracy with Thornton.

TL;DR: Both parties are at fault here. Mahomes has had his misses and is hardly free of the blame, but it's also not like Worthy has consistently displayed the sort of downfield separation/ball-tracking ability that many expected coming into the league. I struggle to see much of a reason to overly believe this connection will simply correct itself during the second half of this season, and Worthy's lack of schemed lower-aDOT targets with Rashee Rice back in action makes it tough to anticipate a major breakthrough for him in fantasy land. Sigh.

2. Who are THE premier handcuffs to stash on your bench?

Last week we highlighted Emanuel Wilson in this very section. Of course, Wilson – and Kenneth Gainwell – are now rightfully waiver wire darlings following injuries to Josh Jacobs (knee) and Jaylen Warren (ankle), so it's time to direct our attention to the new crop of under-owned handcuffs.

The top eight handcuffs I would prioritize that were available on at least 50% of Yahoo waiver wires as of Tuesday:

  • Falcons RB Tyler Allgeier (45% rostered on Yahoo)
  • Titans RB Tyjae Spears (38%)
  • Jaguars RB Bhayshul Tuten (30%)
  • 49ers RB Brian Robinson (28%)
  • Eagles RB Tank Bigsby (21%)
  • Rams RB Blake Corum (17%)
  • Packers RB Emanuel Wilson (8%)
  • Ravens RB Keaton Mitchell (3%)

The three that stick out to me in particular:

  • Jaguars RB Bhayshul Tuten: His Week 11 ankle injury isn't tentatively believed to be serious. Assuming good health on his end, Tuten is one injury to Travis Etienne from being the overwhelming favorite for lead back duties in an offense that has helped enable ETN to upside RB2 heights this season. Hell, Tuten's expanded role on Sunday could even present something closer to FLEX-worthy standalone value if double-digit weekly touches are now on the table.
  • 49ers RB Brian Robinson: Averaging a career-best 4.6 yards per carry behind the same offensive line that CMC is going for a career-low 3.7 yards per rush. Curious! But yeah: Credit to B-Rob for making the most out of his opportunities this season–he leads all RBs in percentage of carries to gain at least three yards after contact (54%). While Robinson obviously wouldn't inherit McCaffrey's receiving work, there's borderline RB1 upside here a la Elijah Mitchell and Jordan Mason in past years.
  • Rams RB Blake Corum: Nobody has been more willing to leave one RB on the field than Sean McVay over the years. Kyren Williams is a borderline RB1 when healthy, but Corum could feasibly rank even higher should Kyren miss time considering Jarquez Hunter (0 touches this season) could remain almost completely out of the picture. Long story short: Corum is one injury away from looking at 20-plus weekly opportunities inside the league's sixth-ranked scoring offense.

3. What man-coverage splits can we take advantage of for Week 10?

Last week this section highlighted Tee Higgins (yay!), Stefon Diggs (alright!),Troy Franklin (that's cool!) … Jalen Nailor (well, that's not great) … and the Eagles WRs (oh no).

So yes: Even the cleanest on-paper mismatches don't always come true. After all, we are trying to predict the future in a sport featuring 60 minutes of 11-on-11 car crashes between the world's best athletes who attempt to move a ball that isn't even round.

But damn, is that going to stop us from trying? Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no!

With this in mind: Our strategy will focus on WRs ideally…

  • Carrying quality weekly target shares with improved splits against man coverage
  • Facing one of the league's most man-heavy defenses
  • Not going up against a truly elite overall defense

Two obvious options that immediately stick out: Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown and Bengals WR Tee Higgins. You're starting them regardless of the matchup–even if there's a fire–but they've been especially force-fed the football against man coverage this season and face off against the league's No. 2 (Giants) and No. 11 (Patriots) most man-heavy defenses this week. I've seen worse candidates for a good ole ladder bet!

Two less locked-in options for this week who look to have plenty of positive data points pointing in their direction:

  • Bears WR Rome Odunze vs. Steelers: Has dominated target share vs. man (30%) compared to zone (23%) on his way to putting together big performances against the Lions (7-128-2), Ravens (7-114-0), and Giants (6-86-1)–three of the four top-eight man-coverage defenses he's faced this year. There was a 2-32-0 dud against the Commanders in there, although even then Odunze had a short TD nullified on a ticky-tack illegal formation penalty. Up next: A Steelers defense that has run the fifth-most man coverage while ranking dead last in PPR points per game allowed to opposing WRs.
  • Giants WR Isaiah Hodgins vs. Lions: This is obviously a bit more of a leap of faith, but hear me out! Hodgins immediately played a full-time 81% route rate and earned more targets (6) than anyone other than Wan'Dale Robinson (9) with Darius Slayton (hamstring) sidelined last week. We know Jameis Winston isn't afraid of testing tight coverage, and a return to Jaxson Dart is perfectly fine too. I'd be shocked if the Giants make this matchup overly competitive, but we've seen lowly signal-callers like Jake Browning (251-3-3) and Marcus Mariota (213-2-0) eventually rack up passing production against the Lions' man-heavy defense in garbage time.

The only other options that fit our criteria: Ravens WRs Rashod Bateman (ankle) and DeAndre Hopkins have been targeted more often against man, although Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews are Lamar Jackson's top-two options, regardless of the coverage. Additionally, Steelers WR Calvin Austin has seen improved splits against man, but his season-low 36% route rate last week is concerning enough to avoid him for the time being.

4. Which offenses have struggled to protect their QB in recent weeks?

The below chart shows every team's pressure rate allowed in Weeks 1-5 vs. Weeks 6-11:

image6.webp

Some notes:

  • The Jaguars, Bills, and Falcons have been allowing more pressure recently after strong starts.
  • This certainly hasn't helped Trevor Lawrence's upside–he's averaged north of seven yards per attempt *once* this entire season.
  • Credit to the Broncos, Dolphins, and Steelers in particular for doing a good limiting pressure all season long, although the average time to throw from Bo Nix (2.71 seconds, 12th fastest), Tua Tagovailoa (2.46, 1st), and Aaron Rodgers (2.63, 5th) have certainly helped contribute to that.
  • The Browns, Ravens, Chargers, Jets, and Raiders have largely given up a lot of pressure all season.
  • Unfortunately, Lamar Jackson hasn't managed to deal with pressure as well as he has in past seasons: Jackson's 25.6% pressure-to-sack rate is the second-worst mark in the league and a far cry from last year's elite 11.3% mark (4th best).
  • The Bengals and Eagles stand out as two units that have done a much better job limiting pressure in recent weeks.
  • Bad news: It's tough to maintain too much optimism for Philly moving forward due to the extended absence of RT Lane Johnson (lisfranc).

Of course, pressure impacts every QB differently, which leads us to our next question…

5. What QBs have performed the best under pressure?

The below chart denotes what every QB with 100-plus dropbacks has done under pressure this season.

image3.webp

Some notes:

  • Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott, Baker Mayfield, Marcus Mariota, Daniel Jones, Josh Allen, and Drake Maye stand out as the best overall QBs under pressure this season.
  • It's particularly impressive to see Baker in this group considering how limited he has been: Week 11 marked his first rush attempt since Week 6!
  • Joe Flacco, Cam Ward, Geno Smith, and Aaron Rodgers have had the toughest times dealing with muddled pockets through 11 weeks.
  • Surprisingly, Flacco hasn't been any better in Cincy: He averaged 4.5 yards per pass under pressure in Weeks 1-5 compared to 3.7 in Weeks 6-11.
  • Holy moly Jayden Daniels loves to scramble. Jared Goff, Matthew Stafford, Sam Darnold, and Joe Flacco do not!
  • The worst QBs at letting pressured dropbacks turn into sacks: Cam Ward, Lamar Jackson, Geno Smith, and Drake Maye. This is pretty much the *one* big issue remaining with Maye's game at the moment.
  • The best QBs at NOT letting pressured dropbacks turn into sacks: Brock Purdy, Bo Nix, Sam Darnold, Dak Prescott, Matthew Stafford, Joe Flacco, Michael Penix, Caleb Williams, and Jordan Love.
  • It's tough to think of a more slippery QB in the pocket than Caleb Williams: He has a league-high 17 tackles avoided on pass plays this season!

6. Week 11 RB Report: TreVeyon Henderson is getting FED

image2.webp

Workhorse alert: 13 teams featured one single RB on at least 70% of their offense's snaps in Week 11: Jonathan Taylor (91% in Week 10), TreVeyon Henderson (90%), Bijan Robinson (86%), Rico Dowdle (83%), Chase Brown (83%), Kareem Hunt (82%), Saquon Barkley (80%), De'Von Achane (80%), Javonte Williams (78%), Ashton Jeanty (76%), Breece Hall (72%), Jahmyr Gibbs (72%), and Emanuel Wilson (71%). Each is a top-24 option in my Week 11 ranks and should be auto starts in fantasy lineups of most shapes and sizes.

That Jahmyr Gibbs guy is pretty good: That applies to creating big plays AND taking care of the football.

Most combined carries and targets without a single fumble or drop this season:

  • Jahmyr Gibbs (183)
  • Quinshon Judkins (177)
  • Rachaad White (129)
  • Zach Charbonnet (115)
  • RJ Harvey (93)
  • Bhayshul Tuten (71)
  • Brian Robinson (65)
  • Chris Rodriguez (61)

Josh Jacobs is hurt, dog: Of course, the only reason why Wilson cracked the workhorse list is because Jacobs suffered a knee injury during the Packers' Week 11 win over the Giants. While the injury isn't considered to be a long-term problem, Jacobs is iffy at best for Week 12, meaning Wilson could be thrust into a fairly hefty role if last week's usage was any indication. Now, the team will have a full week to potentially alter plans–usage following mid-game injuries can sometimes be misleading–but I'm pretty inclined to trust Wilson moving forward. After all, he has 64 touches compared to just 10 for Chris Brooks this season, and MarShawn Lloyd (hamstring, IR) remains out of the picture. Wilson handled 94% of the backfield's snaps following Jacobs' injury.

Still a bell-cow, wouldn't sweat it: RBs who didn't quite rack up a near every-down role in terms of snaps, but continued to dominate their backfield's overall touches and should be continued to be relied on in fantasy lineups of all shapes and sizes include:

  • Christian McCaffrey (RB2 in PPR points per game)
  • James Cook (RB6)
  • Kyren Williams (RB10)
  • D'Andre Swift (RB14)
  • Travis Etienne (RB16)
  • Derrick Henry (RB19)
  • Aaron Jones (RB19 since returning from injury)
  • Quinshon Judkins (RB22)
  • RJ Harvey (RB31, but handled 14 of the backfield's 22 touches in Week 11)
  • Woody Marks (RB38, but has dominated usage in back-to-back weeks)

Muddled committees are so lame: And the Commanders, Titans, Seahawks, Giants, and Cardinals largely continue to insist on deploying just that. Accordingly, Kenneth Walker is the only involved back to crack my top 24 and that's mostly just because of bye weeks and an expected positive game-script against the lowly Titans. None of these RBs should be relied on with any sort of high-end confidence as long as these gross rotations persist.

New RB1 in Tampa Bay?: Not really. Credit to Sean Tucker on his AWESOME Week 11 performance, but the underlying usage still suggests a fairly even split between him and Rachaad White. The more intriguing factor here is what will happen once Bucky Irving (shoulder) returns. Obviously a 100% healthy Bucky would dominate usage, but could we see a bit more of a reduced role early on–particularly with Tucker playing so well?

image4.webp

Jaylen Warren is hurt, dog: It remains to be seen if Warren's ankle injury will result in any missed time. If inactive, Kenneth Gainwell would be expected to handle the lion's share of work in the first of several cozy matchups for this run game.

  • Week 12 at Bears: 31st in RB rush yards before contact allowed per carry
  • Week 13 vs. Bills: 23rd
  • Week 14 at Ravens: 20th
  • Week 15 vs. Dolphins: 16th

Emari Demercado is also hurt, dog: But good news: Trey Benson (knee, IR) has had his 21-day practice window opened! Bam Knight is probably the next-man-up should Benson still not be ready for Sunday–he'd be my highest-ranked RB should both Demercado and Benson fail to suit up. That said: Neither Knight (nor Benson) profile as anything close to must-start options at the moment with a committee of some shape or size still likely in the near term.

Old but not forgotten: 2025 has hardly been a career year for David Montgomery and Alvin Kamara, but we shouldn't discount Week 12 bringing out the best in both. After all, the Lions (-10.5) and Saints (-1.5) are home favorites in winnable matchups against the Giants (30th in PPR points per game allowed to RBs) and Falcons (29th). If there was ever a week to start either RB, it's this one!

7. The DST corner: Da Bears look like a quality Week 12 streamer

Two defenses were rostered in under 30% of ESPN leagues as of Tuesday and look capable of booming in their respective quality matchups:

The Chiefs DST (28.3% rostered): Have racked up multiple sacks in all but two games this season. Meanwhile, Daniel Jones took 15 sacks, threw four INTs, and fumbled six times in his last three games before the team's Week 11 bye. Don't be surprised if Steve Spagnuolo and company keep the bad times rolling for Jones in Arrowhead.

The Bears DST (21.5%): Have an NFL-best 22 takeaways and get to face either a banged-up Aaron Rodgers or Mason Rudolph at home. Throw in a potential return from ace CB Jaylon Johnson (groin, IR), and it wouldn't be surprising to see the Bears DST return their ninth top-13 weekly finish of the season.

Break glass in case of emergency units are headlined by:

  • The 49ers (16.7%) going up against a Panthers offense that usually isn't as great as they were last Sunday.
  • The Raiders (5.9%) who: 1.) Have Maxx Crosby, and 2.) Are facing Shedeur Sanders and the Browns.
  • The Saints (1.2%) ahead of their matchup with an egregiously immobile Kirk Cousins inside an offense that will be missing Drake London (knee).

Additionally, your FINAL weekly reminder: The Tampa Bay DST is THE prime unit to ride for Weeks 13-17. This is a quality real-life defense (12th in EPA allowed per play) that is a playoff contender and gets a borderline erotic schedule against the Cardinals (28th in DST fantasy points per game allowed), Saints (27th), Falcons (16th but now starting Cousins), Panthers (25th), and Dolphins (24th) through the end of the fantasy season. Giddyup!

8. Two key Week 12 ranking questions and answers

Every week I publish an early rankings column midday Monday that gives my top-12 QB/TE and top-24 RB//WR alongside some honorable mention picks while also answering a handful of questions regarding some of the week's biggest storylines. You can read the full Week 12 piece here, but I also wanted to highlight the three biggest questions and answers I had.

*Law and Order Music*

These are their stories.

Who was *this* close to having a much bigger Week 11?

The following players were tackled at the one-yard line and did NOT score a TD on the same drive last week (pre-MNF):

Players tackled at the one-yard line and did NOT score on the same drive:

  • Dolphins RB De'Von Achane (x3, two different drives)
  • Rams RB Blake Corum (x3, same drive)
  • Packers RB Josh Jacobs (x2, same drive)
  • Jaguars RB Travis Etienne (x2, same drive)
  • Eagles RB Saquon Barkley
  • Rams RB Kyren Williams
  • Giants RB Devin Singletary
  • Commanders RB Chris Rodriguez
  • Commanders RB Jeremy McNichols
  • Seahawks WR Cooper Kupp
  • Texans WR Jayden Higgins
  • Texans WR Christian Kirk
  • Cardinals TE Elijah Higgins (lost fumble)
  • 49ers DST (Skyy Moore's kick return)

The two RBs atop this unfortunate leaderboard this season: Travis Etienne (7) and Kyren Williams (5). The latter is especially unfortunate considering all five of these sheeshy occurrences occurred on different drives!

Moral of the story: Find someone who loves you like Matthew Stafford loves Davante Adams near the goal line.

Which RBs have done the most cool shit this season?

My definition:

  • Cool Shit / ko͞ol SHit / noun: Explosive plays + touchdowns + tackles avoided / total carries and targets.

I decided to double-count these factors: An explosive touchdown featuring three broken tackles is worth five points, not one. Cool? Cool.

The leaderboard among all RBs with 50+ opportunities (full list is here):

  1. Jonathan Taylor (44.8%)
  2. Jahmyr Gibbs (41.5%)
  3. Omarion Hampton (40.9%)
  4. Kenneth Walker (40.4%)
  5. Jaylen Warren (39.7%)
  6. Bijan Robinson (39.2%)
  7. De'Von Achane (39.1%)
  8. Kendre Miller (38.5%)
  9. Bucky Irving (37.8%)
  10. James Cook (37.1%)

Adds up! Particular kudos to Hampton, Warren, and Miller (injuries suck) for posting the position's top-three marks in forced missed tackles per opportunity. Warren sure looked like he was on his way to a BIG performance last week before suffering an ankle injury. I appreciated his ability to seamless transition a failed hurdle attempt into a f*ck you stiff arm.

9. One cool fact from every game that I find interesting for one reason or another

… yeah! Home team listed first:

Thursday night football: Texans vs. Bills (-5.5): It's been cool to see Woody Marks take over this Texans backfield, but at some point the rookie needs to display more efficiency: Marks ranks among the league's bottom-seven RBs in yards per carry (3.5, 39th), yards after contact per carry (2.4, 37th), and tackles avoided per carry (14.1%, 35th).

Packers (-3.5) vs. Vikings: JJ McCarthy has posted a brutal 5.7% interception rate this season. That's the fourth-worst mark among 108 qualified QBs in their first five starts since 2010.

Chiefs (-3.5) vs. Colts: Travis Kelce is back to working as one of the position's best YAC creators!

image1.webp

Bengals vs. Patriots (-8.5): Chase Brown has been a different man ever since Joe Flacco appeared under center.

Chase Brown rushing splits:

Weeks 1-5: 2.5 yards per carry, 2.1 yards after contact per carry, 0% explosive rush rate, 13.8% tackles avoided per carry

Weeks 6-11: 5.9 yards per carry, 4.5 yards after contact per carry, 16.4% explosive rush rate, 29.5% tackles avoided per carry

Bears (-3) vs. Steelers: Darnell Washington recently said he currently weighs 311 pounds. And yet, he's objectively the most fun player in the league to watch with the football in his hands.

Ravens (-13.5) vs. Jets: Ravens RB Keaton Mitchell ranks first in NFL history in career yards per carry at 6.6 (min. 75 rush attempts).

Lions (-10.5) vs. Giants: Only five WRs have averaged north of three yards per route against man coverage this season: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, AJ Brown, Puka Nacua, CeeDee Lamb … and Amon-Ra St. Brown. The Giants have run the league's second-most man coverage through 11 weeks of action.

Titans vs. Seahawks (-13.5): Speaking of JSN: The man is averaging 4.31 yards per route run at the moment. That's easily the highest single-season mark since 2015 and just the 10th instance of a WR even clearing three (min. 50 targets, including playoffs)!

Screenshot 2025-11-19 at 5.57.25 PM.webp

Cardinals vs. Jaguars (-2.5): How good has Trey McBride been this year? His average of 18.5 PPR points per game obviously leads the position, but it's also good for the eighth-highest mark among all tight ends and wide receivers! The results with just Jacoby Brissett under center have been even better–McBride's 24.5 PPR points per game literally lead all WRs and TEs since Week 6. Pretty good!

Raiders (-3.5) vs. Browns: The season started out awfully promising for Quinshon Judkins, but the going has been tough in recent weeks. Overall, Judkins averaged 15.5 PPR points per game (RB12) in Weeks 1-5, but has slipped to 10.2 points (RB28) in Weeks 6-11.

Cowboys vs. Eagles (-3.5): AJ Brown has displayed some (Ned) stark yards per route run splits against man/zone coverage this season. Note that the Cowboys ran zone coverage on 95% of the Eagles' dropbacks in Week 1.

Brown yards per route run among 64 qualified WRs:

Man coverage: 3.98 (2nd behind only JSN)

Zone coverage: 0.96 (59th)

Saints (-1.5) vs. Falcons: Bijan Robinson is on pace for 2,191 total yards this season. Since 2015 the only RBs to clear that mark: 2019 Christian McCaffrey (2,392) and 2024 Saquon Barkley (2,283). Not too shabby!

Sunday night football: Rams (-6.5) vs. Buccaneers: Kyren Williams has played 41 games over the past three seasons (including playoffs). Kyren has scored … 41 touchdowns in those games. Only Jahmyr Gibbs (46 in 46) and Derrick Henry (42 in 46) have more.

Monday night football: 49ers (-7) vs. Panthers: CMC currently has a league-high 267 touches. That puts him on pace for 413 on the season–a mark that has only been surpassed by DeMarco Murray (449 in 2014) since 2010!

10. Three Bold Calls for Week 12

And I'm talking BOLD. No predicting Jonathan Taylor to have a big game, or Jaxon Smith-Njigba to have 100 yards: We're dumpster diving here in the pursuit of glory, but I swear there's legit reasoning to the madness (mostly in the form of my weekly mismatch manifesto charts).

1. Rome Odunze rebounds, catches 7 passes for 120 yards and a TD vs. Pittsburgh. The aforementioned man/zone splits bode well for Odunze ahead of this smash spot against the Steelers' league-worst defense in PPR points per game allowed to the position. We've seen Caleb Williams and company dominate vs. below-average defenses–something that the Steelers have been more weeks than not this season. Fun fact: No defense has allowed more 100+ receiving yard efforts than the Steelers (8) through 11 weeks of action.

2. David Montgomery puts together his second-biggest game of the season–gains 110 yards and scores twice against the Giants. This group has given up an average of 175 rushing yards per game during the last five weeks. We all know Jahmyr Gibbs will get his, but man, this spot as a 10.5-point home favorite in a great on-paper matchup sure seems like the sort of week to expect big things from *both* Lions RBs. Only the Bengals (5) have allowed more 100+ yard rushing performances to opposing RBs than the Giants (4) this season.

3. Hunter Henry torches the Bengals for 85 yards and 2 TDs. Has one TD in his last seven games and hasn't surpassed 51 receiving yards in a game since Week 3 … but Henry gets to face the Bengals this week! Cincy is allowing a league-high 22.5 PPR points per game to opposing TE rooms–the difference between them and the 31st ranked Jaguars (4.7) is the same as Jacksonville and the league's 14th-ranked defense (Broncos)! Throw in the potential for Austin Hooper (concussion) to miss another matchup, and this week sure seems like a great spot for Henry to break out of his slump.

Last week: Romeo Doubs (4-53-0) did not go off, RJ Harvey (50-scoreless yards) did not make the most out of his first start, and Greg Dulcich (2-18-0) did not record a top-10 finish. Yikes! As always: We'll watch the film and get better.

Thank you all for reading and best of luck in Week 12 and beyond!

Players Mentioned in this Article

  1. Rome Odunze
    RomeOdunze
    WRCHICHI
    PPG
    12.83
  2. David Montgomery
    DavidMontgomery
    RBDETDET
    PPG
    7.36
  3. Xavier Worthy
    XavierWorthyQ
    WRKCKC
    PPG
    4.55
  4. Patrick Mahomes
    PatrickMahomesIR
    QBKCKC
    PPG
    15.90