2025 Fantasy Football IDP Breakout Candidates: Jaylon Carlies, Dee Winters, And More

The NFL 2025 season is about to be in full swing, but who are we kidding? It never really went away. It is now after the free agency and 2025 NFL Draft. Training camps are open and there's real hitting going on. We can give our unenthusiastic, uninterested, non-NFL watching partners a reason why we obsess about our real-life and fantasy teams.

So, let’s get defensive, the productive kind. Regardless of what format you play, knowing a defense's strengths and weaknesses is a must. Knowing what individual player is going to wreck your Hero running back or cause chaos to your elite quarterback can’t hurt. And if one of your formats is IDP, then knowledge is king.

Players change, schemes change, defensive coordinators come and go, and injuries happen. When drafting IDP players (any player really), it’s important to think past Myles Garrett, Antoine Winfield Jr., and Cam Heyward (who at 35 was the breakout sensation for last year); and find the players who will catapult your team to fantasy victory in the 2025 NFL season.

IDP Breakout Candidates for Fantasy Football 2025

LINEBACKERS

Jaylon Carlies, Colts (ADP 110; LB40)

Forget that there are some sites where Jaylon Carlies is a cheat code because he is designated as a defensive back. Carlies is also a cheat code because he is a converted safety who now plays linebacker. Put him in as a DB and you are essentially playing three linebackers while your opponents are handcuffed with two. That matters because, according to For the Numbers, the average score for a defensive back in 2024 was 9.8 fantasy points. And then there was LB1 Zaire Franklin, who averaged 16.2 fantasy points per game. In fact, you would have to get to LB51 Tyrice Knight to find a linebacker who did not average double-digit fantasy points in 2024.

So, depending on your league's roster construction, you can sneak Carlies in as a DB and score those extra points he is going to get you as a linebacker. Ain’t life grand?

Last season, Carlies recorded six starts with 242 defensive snaps as LB3 in Gus Bradley’s somewhat stagnant defense. This season he will likely play LB2 alongside Franklin. This matters because in fantasy opportunity rules. It also matters because the Colts’ defense will be playing under new defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo.

Traditionally, Anarumo’s defensive schemes have relied less on linebackers and more on defensive backs. Having a linebacker on the field who not only is a converted safety but had a PFF coverage grade of 83.1 last season (fourth out of 189 at his position) and a 10.5% missed tackle rate screams “put me in coach”.

In his limited playing time in his rookie season, Carlies averaged 5.4 IDP fantasy points per game. With more playing time and a defensive scheme that will play to his strengths, look for Carlies to outplay his current ADP and double those fantasy points per game.

Dee Winters, 49ers (ADP 443; LB98)

This is about opportunity and new/old defensive coordinator Robert Saleh. As for opportunity, gone is Dre Greenlaw. Dee Winters will be in a battle with rookie Nick Martin for the LB2 role, where Winter is currently predicted to prevail.

Last season, Winter was on the field for 398 defensive snaps when he recorded 44 total tackles and four pass breakups. He finished the season averaging only 3.2 IDP fantasy points per game. That was then.

When Winters wins the LB2 spot, it not only gives him more playing time, but he will now be in Saleh’s more aggressive defensive scheme with disguised blitzes. This will allow Winters more opportunity to get pressure on the quarterback (check your scoring system) and more chances for tackling that running back trying to escape out of the backfield.

Winters is coming in the Bay Area.

DEFENSIVE TACKLE

Moro Ojomo, Eagles

Gone are Milton Williams and Brandon Graham. Last season, in limited playing time Moro Ojomo started only one game, recording four quarterback hits and 34 pressures.

According to Pro Football Reference, when Ojomo was on the field he had the third-highest pass rush win rate in the league, where 18% of his snaps resulted in pressure on the quarterback.

Now he will slide in at DT2 and play alongside Jalen Carter. While Carter is being double teamed look for Ojomo to increase his quarterback hits and pressures. It is also noteworthy to mention that last season Ojomo did rank fifth among defensive tackles with an 82.6 pass-rush grade, per PFF.

Less competition for defensive snaps equals Moro opportunity (it had to be done).

DEFENSIVE BACKS

Tykee Smith, Safety, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, CB43

This pick requires a little more followup, but if you are diligent you will be rewarded. Last year in his rookie season, Tykee Smith was on the field for 71% of the defensive snaps as the team’s primary nickel corner. In that capacity he averaged 10.7 IDP fantasy points per game.

This season there is some talk about Smith moving to safety. Playing next to Winfield will only increase that likelihood that Smith breaks out as teams attempt to avoid plays going toward Winfield.

It also helps that in Todd Bowles' system Smith will be the safety rotating down toward the line of scrimmage as Winfield plays deep. Rotating down will allow Smith more tackling opportunities, increasing Smith’s 38 solo tackles from last season, which increases the chance that he jumps into the top-5 IDP safeties. The scoring for the top 5 last year was an average of 11.4 IDP fantasy points per game. Smith's breakout potential is not a stretch. Now we only need Bowles to make the move.

Jaquon Brisker, Bears (N/A)

Brisker’s season was cut short last year when he suffered a concussion in his fifth game. He did not return. In the games he did play he collected 40 tackles, one sack, one interception, and two pass deflections. That was in five games, folks.

In his two prior seasons he did not record fewer than 104 tackles, had an interception in each season and recorded four sacks in 2022 with two pass breakups and one sack in 2023 with nine pass breakups.

The man can play and now he is heading into the final year of his rookie contract with new defensive coordinator Dennis Allen. So, he has the incentive to look for that Winfield-like cash stack. And he has a defensive coordinator who has traditionally schemed to what are his strengths.

Allen likes to play his safeties close to the line of scrimmage, last season in New Orleans it was 9%, and it can be argued that Brisker is more talented than the safeties Allen had last year, giving Allen more flexibility and Brisker more opportunity.

The monumental downer to Brisker (and to a lesser extent his place in fantasy), is that he has missed 31% of NFL games due to concussions. In 2022, he missed one game, 2023, he missed two games, and last season he missed 12 games. So far, the news about his recovery is good, but head trauma is not to be taken lightly, especially with the progression in Brisker’s recent history.

But if he plays you want to keep him on your radar.

Choose Your IDP Breakouts Carefully

Picking breakout candidates is riding the wave of optimism. We cannot predict injuries. We can’t predict how new defensive coordinators will mesh with the players. But we do have statistics. We do have hope. And we do know that anything is possible (yes, we are looking at you, Mr. Heyward).

So, keep an eye on training camp and follow Fantasy Life for weekly updates on your favorite player.

Players Mentioned in this Article

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