2026 Fantasy Football Mock Draft: A Way-Too-Early Look At Round 1

Honestly, the playoffs haven’t been all that interesting. I’m ready to turn the page to 2026.

Sike. I’m just playing.

I’m yet process all of last year, and this past weekend’s action has been, to quote the meme, absolute cinema. However, let’s go through what the first round of next season might look like. Sure, we’ve still got the draft and free agency to consider. A lot is going to change. But it’s never too early to start prepping for drafts.

Way-Too-Early Fantasy Football 2026 First Round Mock Draft

1.01 - Bijan Robinson, RB, ATL

The minimum PPR point total for an RB to be in the top five this season was 322.8. I used that value and went back over the last five years to put together a usage profile of what we should expect out of rushers we should consider at the 1.01. Those players averaged 69.7% of their team’s carries, a 15.0% target share and 70.3% of the touches from inside the 10-yard line. And looking at Bijan Robinson’s 2025 outing, I can see him hitting most of those marks in about 11 months.

Rushing Attempts: 63%, 14th (amongst all RBs)
Target Share: 20%, 2nd
Green-Zone Touches per Game: 1.1, T-25th

There’s no question about Robinson’s talent. Our only concern is how often he gets the ball. Tyler Allgeier has been a thorn in the side of fantasy managers looking to get RB1 weeks out of the Falcons’ RB1. But with the backup looking to test free agency, that ceiling outcome for Robinson may be in the cards.

1.02 - Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, DET

Now, on the one hand, Jahmyr Gibbs’ 2025 wasn’t that dissimilar from Robinson’s. The ‘Bama product finished his third season with just 57% of the Lions’ carries and an 18% target share. His explosive run rate was almost the same, too (8.4% to 8.6%). However, Gibbs’ trajectory as the goal-line back looks a bit better.

2023 (Touch per Snap Rate): 47.8% (Gibbs), 34.8% (Robinson)
2024: 57.1%, 64.5%
2025: 59.3%, 54.5%

Detroit’s offseason will already be under scrutiny as they’re still looking for a new OC. But to go with a scheme adjustment, the backfield might be changing as well. GM Brad Holmes has indicated that trade conversations around David Montgomery will take place, as Gibbs has moved into the RB1 spot. Even with concerns about the offensive line, a bell-cow role for Gibbs could push him ahead of Robinson.

1.03 - Puka Nacua, WR, LAR

Believe me when I say, I wanted to put Ja’Marr Chase here. And I’ll get to him in a sec. But Puka Nacua just went back-to-back seasons with a YPRR above 3.0 on a similar target volume. Of course, the most concerning stat for Nacua is his “tent visits per game” metric. But he’s averaged no fewer than 9.1 targets per game since joining the Rams. There was just one week with Nacua outside of the top 24. Matthew Stafford’s health and future as LA’s QB1 will impact Nacua’s ADP, but without any indication he’s going to hang up his cleats, I’d expect to see his WR1 at the top of drafts.

1.04 - Ja’Marr Chase, WR, CIN

Ja’Marr Chase might not have won the Triple Crown again, but the trio of QBs Cincinnati had to field didn’t seem to slow down the two-time All-Pro WR.

Joe Burrow: 31.3% (Target Rate), 20.1 (PPR PPG)
Joe Flacco: 30.5%, 21.5
Jake Browning: 27.3%, 15.1

Chase led the league in targets, but his yardage and touchdown totals tell the story of the ’25 Bengals. Five WRs earned more than 150 targets. Chase’s 76% catchable target rate ranked fourth out of the five. Surprisingly, Cincinnati’s offensive line ranked third in pressure rate allowed (31.8%). Assuming a normal offseason in southwest Ohio, the Burrow-Chase connection will be back on display starting in September.

1.05 - Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, SEA

For Jaxon Smith-Njigba, the strongest argument for his 2025 ADP was his projected target share. DK Metcalf went east to the Steelers, and Seattle’s response was to bring in Cooper Kupp from their division rival. In hindsight, everything lined up for the former Buckeye to break out in his third year.

Target Share: 35.8% (2025), 24.1% (2024), 17.0% (2023)
Air Yard Share: 14.1%, 29.4%, 50.1%
Yards per Route Run: 1.32, 1.81, 3.68

The idea of Sam Darnold operating behind Seattle’s offensive line was the crux of most concern. However, OC Klint Kubiak adjusted the personnel formations and had Darnold throwing out of play-action on 28.2% of his dropbacks. If the Seahawks can keep Kubiak on the sideline in ’26, JSN should be in line for another strong season.

1.06 - Christian McCaffrey, RB, SF

Don’t talk to me about Christian McCaffrey’s age. Yes, I know he’s coming off a season with 413 touches (most of any RB). But not even Gibbs or Robinson can boast the type of opportunities that the 49ers RB1 got in ’25. McCaffrey was the only RB with top-five marks in total rushing share, target rate and touches from inside the five-yard line. Even with him entering his age-30 season, I’ll still take him in the middle of the first round.

1.07 - De’Von Achane, RB, MIA

So, De’Von Achane’s spot is the one I’m the least sure about. We’ve got his workload on one side. He was at a 62% rush rate (Robinson – 63%, Gibbs – 57%) and one of three RBs with a target share at or above 20%. But Achane also had a run game designed by Mike McDaniel. Miami ranked in the top six in rushing EPA per play in McDaniel’s three full seasons with Tua Tagovailoa. The Dolphins are in line for plenty of change this offseason. And the personnel and coaching adjustments may affect Achane's output.

1.08 - Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, DET

We know what we’re getting in Amon-Ra St. Brown. His average targets per game over the last four seasons have been: 9.1, 10.3, 8.3 and 10.1. Gibbs coming on hasn’t mattered. St. Brown still finished inside the top 20 in six of nine weeks with Jameson Williams ascending into the WR2 spot. The Lions will be on their third OC in as many seasons. But the one constant has been the Sun God.

1.09 - James Cook, RB, BUF

I can’t remember a lesser-discussed rushing leader than James Cook’s 2025 season. He hit career-highs in carries and yards, but, more importantly, Cook took on 82 touches when the Bills got into scoring position. Josh Allen still rumbled into the end zone enough on his own. However, Cook being able to carve out a high-end RB1 role with a mobile QB should keep him in the top 12.

1.10 - Jonathan Taylor, RB, IND

It’d be disrespectful to put Jonathan Taylor any lower than the ten spot. I know I’ve primarily cited opportunity-based metrics as launch points for ’26, but Taylor had 14 TDs to his name by Week 8. However, even after Daniel Jones’ legs gave out, the veteran RB ranked inside the top 10 in rushing rate and goal-line carries. HC Shane Steichen has another tough offseason to rework the offense, but if he can get close to league-average play under, Taylor will be back in the RB1 discussion.

1.11 - CeeDee Lamb, WR, DAL

So, one of two things needs to happen. Either CeeDee Lamb needs to stay in the first round, and George Pickens should go soon after. Or, fantasy managers should look for the Dallas duo in the second round.

Target Rate (after Week 7): 25% (Lamb), 23% (Pickens)
Air Yard Share: 35%, 29%
PPR PPG: 14.8, 14.7

Sure, there’s always the chance the Cowboys defense turns things around, limiting the number of times Dak Prescott has to throw next season. But even when he does, the split between Lamb and Pickens keeps the WR1 from his usual place closer to the front of drafts.

1.12 - Trey McBride, TE, ARI

(Continue to) Save us, Jacoby Brissett. You’re Trey McBride’s only hope. I could rattle off McBride’s usage stats, but comparing him to WRs gives him a better case for the backend of the first round. After Brissett took over as the starter, the Arizona TE had a greater target share than Puka Nacua (27.7% vs 25.9%). Only Amon-Ra St. Brown and Ja’Marr Chase had more passes thrown their way. And McBride’s 15 end-zone looks were the second-most across both positions. Work on the defense this year, Arizona. Give us another year with Brissett.

Honorable Mentions

I had a couple of guys that I think could float into the first-round discussion. It won’t be at the start of the offseason. But once we get into the summer and training camp, I could see the hype train start to move them up in drafts.

Chase Brown, RB, CIN

At some point, we’re going to have to get past the “Chase Brown is splitting snaps with Samaje Perine” bit. Yes, Perine played on 37% of the snaps after Joe Flacco came to Cincinnati. But Brown took 62% of the carries, including half of the goal-line carries, and 14% of the targets. His rapport with Joe Burrow and handle on the money touches already had him as a 2/3 turn pick in ’25. He should be closer to the Top 12 this offseason.

Chris Olave, WR, NO

Chris Olave is more of a long shot. If anything, I wanted to give him his flowers for a strong season. Olave was already tenth amongst all WRs in target rate. But with Tyler Shough under center, the fourth-year WR moved into the top 10 in YPRR. Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Puka Nacua were the only other WRs to average more PPR PPG than the former Buckeye. We’d need more confidence about the Saints as a whole to push Olave into the first round, but after two months, the potential is there.

Players Mentioned in this Article

BijanRobinson
RBATL
PPG
15.67
JahmyrGibbs
RBDET
PPG
12.49
PukaNacua
WRLAR
PPG
15.03
Proj
16.82
Ja'MarrChase
WRCIN
PPG
11.21