7 Things to Know For Week 15: The Running Back Bell-Cows, Ranking The Wide Receivers and More

Week 15 is upon us. Reminder: Friends and family come and go, but fantasy football championship banners hang forever.

This brings us to today's goal: 7 mostly fantasy-relevant things to know ahead of Week 15 that ideally will help make you both a better fantasy manager and overall person.

One thought on every WR3 in the Fantasy Life rankings
Ollie's weather report: 8 potential games to worry about
WARNING: Reserved only for cool fantasy managers with first-round byes
History Lesson: Weird shit happens in the fantasy playoffs
What man-coverage splits can we take advantage of for Week 15?
Week 14 RB Usage Report: Workhorse Woody Marks!
The DST corner: 49ers and Chiefs headline the best Week 15-16 options

As always: It's a great day to be great.

1. One thought on every WR3 in the Fantasy Life rankings

At this moment in time on Tuesday morning. The rankings can and will change throughout the week; they're weird (cool) like that. Either way, let's give a quick look at the WR25-36 range since these could involve some of your toughest calls.

WR25 Jauan Jennings: Has out-targeted Ricky Pearsall 19-to-9 in their last three games together and kicks off a borderline erotic fantasy playoffs schedule featuring the Titans (23rd in PPR points per game allowed to opposing WRs), Colts (29th), and Bears (26th).

WR26 Emeka Egbuka: Went from working as the WR3 in PPR points per game in Weeks 1-5 … to the WR47 in Weeks 6-14–but the volume is still certainly there (8+ targets in 7 straight games) ahead of a matchup with the same Falcons defense he torched for 4-67-2 in his NFL debut. While Egbuka deserves some blame for missed opportunities around the way, Baker Mayfield has been the culprit on several of their near-miss TDs as well.

WR27 Christian Watson: Has five scores in his last four games and legit looks better than ever despite, you know, tearing his ACL earlier this year–the only problem this week is a potential shadow date with Pat Surtain, who has helped the Broncos allow the seventh-fewest PPR points per game to opposing WRs.

WR28 Courtland Sutton: Has finished worse than the WR36 in just three games this season, albeit Sutton doesn't have a finish higher than WR16 since September–hopefully last week's 10 targets (most since Week 7) is a sign that things are trending up.

WR29 Brian Thomas Jr.: Trevor Lawrence is playing some good football at the moment, BTJ just recorded his second-highest yardage output of the season (87 yards) in Week 14, and this passing attack now gets a Jets defense that stands as the league's fifth-worst unit in EPA allowed per dropback.

WR30 Deebo Samuel: Has just one finish inside the position's top 24 in his last seven games, but now faces the same Giants defense that led to a WR6 finish all the way back in his Commanders debut.

WR31 Michael Pittman: Unfortunately has a very uncertain situation under center; just realize Pittman's lower average target depth (8.2 yards) compared to Alec Pierce (19.4) makes it more likely that he can sustain heighted erraticness from his QB.

WR32 Chris Godwin: 3-78-0 and 5-55-0 receiving lines in the last two weeks have featured Godwin looking healthier than he has all season; the biggest problem here is that Baker Mayfield has cooled off considerably following a hot start to 2025–he ranks 30th or worst in PFF pass grade (64.3), yards per attempt (6.5), and completion rate (61.6%) among 44 qualified QBs.

WR33 Luther Burden: Averaging 6.3 opportunities per game over his last five and should continue to benefit from Rome Odunze (foot) being out against a Browns defense that is usually so stout at the line of scrimmage that they compel teams to throw the ball more. Burden has emerged as one of the league's most-efficient rookies on a per-route basis this season.

WR34 Quentin Johnston: Has three consecutive games with just three targets, but gets to rematch the same Chiefs defense he torched for 79 yards and two scores back in Week 1. Note that ace Chiefs CB Trent McDuffie (hyperextended knee) could be sidelined.

WR35 Khalil Shakir: The YAC monster totaled 18 receiving yards in recent matchups with the Buccaneers, Steelers, and Bengals … but also torched the Texans (8-110-0) of all groups, and performed admirably earlier this season against the Patriots (6-45-0). The hope here is that Bills-Patriots (49.5 game total) turns into a fantasy-friendly shootout.

WR36 AD Mitchell: Likely won't be this high should "Brady Cook" draw the start, but Mitchell was doing good things with Tyrod Taylor (knee) and should continue to see all the targets he can handle as long as Garrett Wilson (knee, IR) remains sidelined.

2. Ollie Williams weather report: 8 potential games to worry about

Or maybe not. After all, basically every game that featured a pissed off Mother Nature still wound up being a shootout last week. Either way: Let me do my best meteorologist impression by immediately directing you to other people's expertise:

Real life Meteorologist Kevin Roth has a free and awesome weekly weather report directly made to help you, a scholar, know the potential weather risks for every game. You can check that out right here.
Fantasy Life residential badass Chris Allen has penned the greatest fantasy football article regarding the science of wind of all time and also produces an awesome cheat sheet article on Fridays that you should definitely check out since it will include more cool up-to-date weather-related info.

WITH THAT SAID: Using those amazing resources leads me to have concerns on the following contests as of Wednesday afternoon (home team listed first):

Chiefs-Chargers: 25 degree temps aren't ideal, although rain and wind aren't expected to be much of a problem.
Bengals-Ravens: Similar to above: It'll be cold, but otherwise the weather is clear.
Bears-Browns: Even colder (13 degrees) inside a city known for being windy, although right meow the projected nine MPH winds aren't a concern. Still: Feels-like temperature could be below zero.
Giants-Commanders: Cold with 10-15 MPH wind.
Patriots-Bills: Similar to the above but with a chance for some snow.
Eagles-Raiders: Cold with 10 MPH wind.
Seahawks-Colts: Temperature is fine, but there is a decent chance for rain throughout the afternoon.
Steelers-Dolphins: A low temperature around 20 degrees is complemented by a chance of rain on Monday night.

None of these matchups SCREAM downgrade, although throwing the rock in the cold with wind/precipation attached certainly isn't ideal. I'm not actively moving involved players down the ranks due to all involved matchups currently having a "Yellow" rating from Roth at the moment, but we'll be keeping a particularly close eye on these radars ahead of the weekend.

3. WARNING: Reserved only for cool fantasy managers with first-round byes

Seriously. Take a bow. You earned a full week of no stress or concern after 14 straight weeks of absolute self-inflicted hell. Half of your league mates are doing God knows what in the consolation bracket. Another handful play for the right to face your cool team. But you? Just chilling.

Of course, as Ulysses S. Grant once wrote: Never turn down the opportunity to create your own luck in fantasy football. Consider making the following roster moves based on Week 16-17 matchups:

QB: Ideally you don't have a need for QB, but for desperate superflex enjoyers: Tyler Shough (8% rostered on Yahoo, vs. NYJ in Week 16) profiles as the best option thanks to his demonstrated upside as a passer and rusher (third-highest single-game fantasy points total from rushing last week!).

RB: I prefer to keep my bench stashed with as many high-end handcuffs as possible. Some quality stashes available in more leagues than not: Blake Corum (rostered in 33% of Yahoo leagues), Emanuel Wilson (31%), Brian Robinson (21%), Tank Bigsby (18%), Samaje Perine (5%), and Malik Davis (0%).

WR: Similar to QB: Don't expect too many heroes to be readily available on the waiver wire, but guys like Devaughn Vele (19% rostered on Yahoo, vs. NYJ in Week 16), Chimere Dike (15%, vs. KC), John Metchie (9%, vs. NO), and Jalen Coker (4%, vs. TB) are generally available and stand out as FLEX-worthy volume-based options in winnable matchups.

TE: Two matchups rise above all else in the TE streets: The Bengals and Jaguars. Especially the former–the difference in PPR points per game allowed to opposing TEs between the Cincy defense and the Jags is the same as the Jags and the league's third-best defense against TEs! Dolphins TE Darren Waller (38% rostered on Yahoo), gets the former matchup, while Broncos TE Evan Engram (38%) gets the latter.

DST: The Saints (4.8% rostered on ESPN, vs. NYJ), Cardinals (8.3%, vs. ATL), 49ers (22.7%, at IND), and Chiefs (23.8%, vs. TEN) look like the best three streamable options ahead of Week 16. I prefer the latter two squads thanks to the reality that they have more to play for at this point in the season.

4. History Lesson: Weird shit happens in the fantasy playoffs

Last season we saw the following players post legit great numbers during Weeks 15-17:

Tyjae Spears (RB7 in PPR points per game)
Ameer Abdullah (RB8)
Jalen McMillan (WR15)
Keenan Allen (WR16)
Olamide Zaccheaus (WR18)
Tyler Conklin (TE4)
Chiggy Okonkwo (TE8)

You can find similar abnormalities in 2023 when old man Joe Flacco turned David Njoku and Amari Cooper into league winners. That was also the same year that Zamir White had 54 rushing yards in Weeks 1-14 … before being thrust into the starting role due to injury and working as the RB8 during the most important three-week stretch of the year.

It's already quite difficult to predict the future of a sport that consists of constant 11-on-11 car crashes between finely tuned athletic machines while using a ball that isn't even a round–and NOW we have to do so in a three-week sample between teams of varying degrees of health and motivation. This should sound scary and hard, but remember: Your leaguemates are facing the same puzzle you are, so don't be afraid to embrace the chaos and accept that some wonky decisions can and will need to be made down the stretch to earn sweet victory.

5. What man-coverage splits can we take advantage of for Week 15?

A disclaimer from my lawyer: This is hardly a perfect science and doesn't guarantee boom games. Just kidding. Or am I? Either way: The goal of this section is to try to find WRs who have fairly extreme man/zone splits and are facing bad defenses that happen to run a lot of man coverage. Cool? Cool.

Overall, 12 defenses have run man coverage on more than 30% of their opponent's pass plays this season. Each defense's rank in EPA allowed per dropback is also listed in parenthesis.

Lions (44.8%, 18th in EPA allowed per dropback)
Browns (42.8%, 5th)
Broncos (41.8%, 7th)
Giants (39.4%, 26th)
Ravens (38%, 21st)
Jets (36.5%, 28th)
Steelers (35.5%, 13th)
Eagles (33.7%, 11th)
Colts (33%, 14th)
Bears (32.8%, 20th)
Chiefs (31%, 16th)
Commanders (30.3%, 32nd)

It doesn't take an alleged fantasy expert to figure out WRs from the Rams and Bengals are set up well against the Lions and Ravens. Additionally, I'm going to go out on a limb and refrain from overly trusting Bears, Packers, and Raiders WRs in their respective tough matchups against the Browns, Broncos, and Eagles. Still, there are six actionable situations to perhaps sink our teeth into:

Jaguars WR Jakobi Meyers vs. Jets: Meyers boasts an awesome 25% target share vs. man compared to 14% vs. zone. He's worked as the WR11 in PPR points per game during the last four weeks and should be in starting lineups of most shapes and sizes.
Seahawks WR Rashid Shaheed vs. Colts: Shaheed actually boasts superior numbers to Jaxon Smith-Njigba in targets per route run (30% vs. 29%) and overall target share (26% vs. 23%) against man coverage. Fresh off his highest target share (17%) of the season, Shaheed has boom-or-bust upside vs. this banged-up secondary.
Dolphins TE Darren Waller vs. Steelers: This did NOT work last week against the Jets, but hey, Waller still boasts an extreme difference in targets per route run against man (29%) compared to zone (10%). The problem: Waller's route rate dropped from niiiice% in Week 13 to 59% last week.
Chargers WRs Ladd McConkey and Keenan Allen vs. Chiefs: Another one that didn't exactly turn out perfect in Week 14, but both McConkey (30% vs. 17%) and Allen (27% vs. 21%) have far better target shares against man coverage than zone last year. Both Ladd (6-74-0) and Keenan (7-68-1) performed well against Kansas City in Week 1.
Browns WR Jerry Jeudy vs. Browns: Has a team-high 27% target share against man coverage compared to a mediocre 17% mark against zone. Jeudy hasn't had more than five targets in a game with Shedeur Sanders under center, but last week's 60-yard TD connection was pretty cool.
Giants TE Theo Johnson vs. Commanders: It's rare to see TEs boast superior man splits, but that is the case with Johnson in terms of his target share (20% vs. 14%) and yards per route run (1.65 vs. 1.18). Johnson's only three games with 50-plus receiving yards this season have all come against top-10 man-heavy defenses.

6. Week 14 RB Report: Workhorse Woody Marks!

Workhorse alert: 10 teams featured one single RB on at least 70% of their offense's snaps in Week 14: Woody Marks (89% snaps), Javonte Williams (82%), Saquon Barkley (80%), Breece Hall (75%), James Cook (75%), Jonathan Taylor (73%), Travis Etienne (71%), Josh Jacobs (71%), Devin Neal (71%), and Jahmyr Gibbs (70%). All should be auto starts in pretty much fantasy lineups of all shapes and sizes with the only two real exceptions being Hall (low-end RB2 if "Brady Cook" is starting) and Neal (dependent on Alvin Kamara remaining sidelined). Even then, I typically let a workhorse RB's volume win as the tiebreaker over WR3 types in close start/sit decisions.

Still a bell-cow, wouldn't sweat it: RBs who didn't quite rack up a near every-down role in terms of snaps, but continued to dominate their backfield's overall touches and should be continued to be relied on in fantasy lineups of all shapes and sizes include:

De'Von Achane (RB4 in PPR points per game)
Bijan Robinson (RB5)
Bucky Irving (RB7)
RJ Harvey (RB9 since Week 11)
Kyren Williams (RB11)
Derrick Henry (RB14)
Chase Brown (RB16)
Ashton Jeanty (RB18)
Kareem Hunt (RB20 since Week 8)
Quinshon Judkins (RB22)

Muddled committees are so lame: And the Cardinals, Bears, Vikings, Steelers, Seahawks, Titans, and Commanders largely continue to insist on deploying just that. D'Andre Swift is the only involved back who cracks my top 24; the rest shouldn't be relied on with any sort of high-end confidence as long as these gross rotations persist–even Week 14 all-star Tony Pollard, who scored more PPR points last Sunday than he had in his previous four games combined!

The Chargers are sticking with two RBs: Which was expected, although it was surprising to see Kimani Vidal work so far ahead of Omarion Hampton when it came to snaps. The touches were equal, and it's certainly possible the lean more toward the first-round rookie in future weeks, but for Week 15 I'm treating Hampton as more of a borderline RB2 with guys like TreVeyon Henderson and Jaylen Warren, and Vidal as an RB3 alongside Chuba Hubbard and Kenneth Gainwell.

7. The DST corner: 49ers and Chiefs headline the best Week 15-16 options

The Buccaneers remain a steady option with matchups against the Falcons, Panthers, and Dolphins to close out the fantasy season, but for those still looking for streaming options…

Jaguars DST (41.4% rostered on ESPN): Set up brilliantly against whatever sad excuse for a professional QB the Jets trot out under center this Sunday.
Chiefs DST (23.8%): Get a banged up Chargers offensive line at home in Week 15 before taking on Cam Ward and company in Week 16.
49ers DST (22.8%): Titans and Colts in back-to-back weeks is awfully enticing for a defense that allowed just 17 points in two games prior to their Week 14 bye.
Bears DST (13.3%): Getting healthier and set up well in a cold, home matchup against a Browns offense implied to score the fifth-fewest points in Week 15.
Cowboys DST (12%): The front-seven has improved mightily over the past month, something that could cause problems for the Vikings, Chargers, and Commanders over the next three weeks.
Saints DST (4.8%): A trifecta of great matchups against the Panthers, Jets, and Titans to close out the fantasy season.

The Jaguars deserve to be the highest rostered unit of the group and would be my go-to pick for Week 15 specifically. Otherwise? I lean towards the 49ers, Cowboys, and Chiefs in that order–each defense has played at least something close to decent football in recent weeks and (more importantly) have no motivation questions with plenty to play for down the stretch.

Thank you all for reading and best of luck in Week 15 and beyond!