Black Friday Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles

Nothing celebrates commercial culture in America quite like Black Friday. It’s a day where you’re encouraged to spend oodles of your hard-earned dollars, albeit at discounted rates.

Speaking of which, indulge me...

Anwyays, I’ve never been a Black Friday shopper. No one has ever accused me of being frugal, but the idea of waking up early to get in line just never really appealed to me. I’m much more of a Cyber Monday kind of guy myself.

But the NFL on Black Friday? That’s something I can get behind.

The NFL will take over the day after Thanksgiving for the third consecutive season, this time featuring a matchup between the Chicago Bears and the Philadelphia Eagles. Both teams are currently leading their respective divisions at 8-3, and it puts them behind only the Rams in the conference standings. The Eagles are listed as seven-point home favorites, while the total for this contest sits at 44.5 points (UPDATED odds can be found here).

The goal for this piece is to be a one-stop shop for all your NFL Black Friday content: game analysis, fantasy targets, and prop bets. Let’s dive right in.

Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles Game Primer

• Spread: Eagles -7.0
• Total: 44.5
• Moneylines: Bears +290/Eagles -325
• Friday, Nov. 28 at 3 p.m. ET, on Amazon Prime

While both teams have enjoyed successful seasons, it’s fair to wonder just how good they actually are. The Eagles have had massive issues on offense for most of the year. They’ve dipped to just 17th in points per game and 24th in yards despite ranking in the top eight in both departments last season. Their offense stumbled across the finish line in an embarrassing collapse vs. the Cowboys last week, failing to score a single point after the 11:32 mark of the second quarter.

However, the Eagles' defense has looked as good as ever, particularly of late. Before last week’s loss, Philly held two really good teams in the Lions and Packers to just 16 points combined. They’re fourth in defensive EPA over that time frame, despite surrendering 473 yards to the Cowboys last week.

The Bears have had no such issues on offense. Their offense is eighth in points and sixth in yardage, which has propelled them to the top of a really strong division.

That said, there’s undoubtedly been some good luck as well. The Bears actually have a negative point differential for the season, giving them an expected record of just 5.4-5.6. The Bears have managed to go 6-1 in one-score games, and they have four wins by three points or fewer. In other words, they’re a few unlucky bounces away from a losing record.

The good news for the Bears is that they could be getting a bit healthier this week. Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon have been full participants at practice, and their returns could bolster a struggling pass defense. Johnson, specifically, is one of the best cornerbacks in football, so his return would be a major blessing.

Unfortunately, the Bears have a few other players looking likely to miss this outing, with linebackers T.J. Edwards and Noah Sewell and cornerback Tyrique Stevenson all looking questionable at best.

For the Eagles, the biggest name to monitor is DeVonta Smith. He’s missed practice this week with multiple ailments, so his status for Friday is precarious. Lane Johnson will also miss his second straight game.

This will also be Ben Johnson’s first game as a head coach to take place outside of Sunday or Monday. He's had a couple of shortened weeks after playing on Monday Night Football the week prior, and he’s gone 1-1 ATS in those outings. He’ll have just five days of prep for this contest, and first-year coaches have historically struggled in that split. Conversely, Nick Sirianni is 4-2 ATS with fewer than six days between games, and Jalen Hurts is 20-15-1 ATS at home for his career.

Our Fantasy Life Game Model sees some value with the Eagles in this spot, and I tend to agree. In general, fading lucky teams is a profitable endeavor, and few teams have been luckier than the Bears this season. The Eagles’ defense is also the best unit in this matchup.

DFS Targets

Jalen Hurts

Hurts is undoubtedly the big-ticket item worth spending on in this game. While the Eagles have struggled on offense, Hurts continues to put up solid fantasy totals. He’s third at the position in fantasy points per game, with only the MVP duo of Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes eclipsing him.

Hurts’ biggest skill for fantasy purposes is his ability to get shoved into the end zone by his teammates. The tush push may be a universally hated play, but there is no denying its effectiveness. It’s propelled Hurts to double-digit rushing scores in four consecutive seasons, and he’s at eight through 11 games so far this year.

Hurts has also been more efficient than you might realize as a passer. He doesn’t have the best raw volume most weeks, but his average of 8.37 adjusted yards per attempt is basically in line with his mark from last season. He’s averaged 208 passing yards per game with 17 passing scores, and he’s thrown just one interception.

The Bears have also been a solid matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the eighth-most fantasy points per game to the position. Perhaps that will change with Johnson returning to the lineup, but Hurts undoubtedly has the top ceiling on this slate.

Dallas Goedert

Did you know that Goedert currently ranks seventh at tight end in fantasy scoring? Unfortunately, a lot of that production came early in the year, and most of it came from scoring touchdowns. Goedert had seven receiving scores in his first seven games, but he’s been held out of the end zone since. In the games where Goedert hasn’t scored this season, he’s racked up 4.0, 4.4, 8.3, 4.4, and 11.4 PPR points.

That makes things pretty simple. If Goedert scores a touchdown, he has a great chance of returning value. If he doesn’t, there’s a good chance he’s going to bust.

The good news is that the Bears have allowed the ninth-most PPR points per game to opposing tight ends. They’ve also allowed 0.5 touchdowns per game to the position, so it’s a reasonable spot for Goedert to get in the paint.

Goedert could also take on a slightly larger role if Smith is unable to suit up. While Smith has yet to sit out this season, Goedert did score 17.8 PPR points in the lone game that A.J. Brown missed.

Luther Burden III

The Luther Burden breakout is happening. He’s posted a 61% route participation in back-to-back contests, and he’s had target shares of 17% and 18% in those games. While that’s still far from elite utilization, it represents a solid increase compared to his marks from earlier this year.

Burden's had five targets in back-to-back games, and he’s scored at least 8.1 PPR points in two of his past three. He’s dangerous with the ball in his hands, and the Bears are making more of an effort to do exactly that.

Burden’s role should only continue to grow. He stands out as one of the best pure values in this contest.

Props

Kyle Monangai Higher Than 36.5 Rushing Yards (Underdog)

With the Bears listed as seven-point underdogs, you wouldn’t typically be excited about the prospects for their running backs. However, Chicago has been a pretty run-heavy team. Since their Week 5 bye, the Bears have posted a -4% Dropback Over Expectation. That ranks 25th in the NFL over that time frame, meaning they might not abandon the run quickly if they fall behind.

The most appealing part of Monangai is his utilization. He seemingly took over as the Bears’ top running back last week, handling 57% of the snaps and 55% of the designed rushing attempts. D’Andre Swift was at 43% and 36%, respectively.

With that in mind, it doesn’t make a ton of sense that Monangai’s rushing number is seven yards lower than Swift’s on Underdog. It’s possible that’s just a one-week outlier, but Monangai has looked like the more explosive back all season. He thrived in the one game that Swift missed, so I’m buying the RB flip in Chicago.

Saquon Barkley Higher Than 19.5 Receiving Yards (Underdog)

What a sad, strange year it has been for Barkley. He was always expected to regress some after last year’s historic campaign. Running backs that have as many touches as Barkley did last season almost always come back to reality the following year.

That said, I don’t think anyone expected Barkley to come this far back. He’s averaging more than two fewer yards per carry than he did last season, and he simply doesn’t appear to have the same juice. His blocking has certainly gotten worse, but Barkley is also not making the most of his opportunities. He’s a mind-boggling 94th at the position in yards after contact per attempt, while he ranks 34th in broken tackles. He has the same number of broken tackles as his backup does (Tank Bigsby), and Barkley has 162 additional carries.

With Barkley struggling as a runner, the team is trying to get the ball more in his hands as a receiver. He’s posted a 17% target share over his past four games, and he’s eclipsed 20 receiving yards in three of them.

The Bears have improved on the ground as the year has progressed, so I’m expecting another solid workload for Barkley catching passes out of the backfield.

More Than 0.5 Mall Fights in Your Hometown

If there’s a reason to partake in the Black Friday shopping hornet’s nest, this is probably it. I’d have a lot more interest in waiting it out on line if I knew I was going to see Karen and Rachel get into a throwdown on aisle three.

Regardless of how you choose to spend your Black Friday, I hope you had a wonderful Thanksgiving and enjoy the rest of the holiday season!