Fantasy Football Projections: A Breakout RB I Love

I used to watch Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade on repeat as a kid.

If you haven’t seen the classic flick, please do. It had Harrison Ford in his prime. Sean Connery was Ford’s dad. You could do worse with 127 minutes of free time. One of my favorite sequences was Jones (Jr.) discovering The Grail.

There was no description of the sacred cup for the archaeologist to reference; all Jones had were clues. Things he believed were true. And he bet his life on them.

Of course, drafting RBs doesn’t carry the same weight. There’s no race against evil. But we’ve got our clues to find the guys we love and want on our team. Plus, we need a similar level of conviction if we’re sure they’re going to break out this season.

pic.twitter.com/zq9rum2E7S
— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) July 22, 2024

The Clues to Follow

To be clear, some vibes go into the equation. I’m not a total spreadsheet zealot. But we do need an archetype of RB to prioritize. Here’s one for you to find:

The guy who’ll be on the field all the time.

Sounds simple, right? If we knew a rusher would play in every scenario, we’d elevate their draft cost into the earlier rounds. Their path to touches would be clear, boosting the likelihood of more yards or touchdowns. But let’s break “all the time” down into traits we can map to players. Luckily, someone much smarter than me already did this.

Identifying what matters for RB scoring is like Jones knowing the Grail should look like the cup of a carpenter’s son. By zeroing in on the metrics of interest, you know what to look for in a player. But I’ll take Dwain’s stats a step further for our purposes.

Targets: how often are they running routes and earning looks
Early-Down Attempts: do they operate as the primary rusher in long-down-and-distance scenarios
Short-yardage/Goal-line: are they the preferred option in the red zone

Individually, these characteristics point to a bench player, someone you’d start during bye weeks. Together, we’ve got the makings of an RB1. All we need is the right situation, and Minnesota has just the RB waiting to outkick his ADP.

The Viking You Need

I can’t stop drafting Jordan Mason. The case for him is simple. Minnesota added two offensive linemen during free agency and drafted another in the first round. Their starter, Aaron Jones, is 30 years old. And Jones has spent his past few seasons in committees. So, Mason not only has the path to a weekly floor but a positive offensive environment. Plus, we’ve seen him operate as a team’s RB1, making him one of my favorite targets in the middle rounds. He’s put all of the traits I look for on display.

Early-Down Usage

Unfortunately for me, ahead of Week 1’s Sunday Night Football in 2024, I was still holding out hope that the rumblings about Christian McCaffrey were wrong. And I wasn’t totally sold on Mason taking over the backfield. He proved me wrong by halftime.

Jordan Mason casually rolling through the defensive end pic.twitter.com/pmby0sBuFh
— JetPack Galileo (@JetPackGalileo) September 14, 2024

Mason played seven games before sustaining a shoulder injury, which ultimately ended his season. Across those games, he earned 120 totes on first or second down. Only Derrick Henry (124) had more. However, the volume (while important) didn’t catch my eye. He’s in a new situation with veteran competition ahead of him (for now). Mason’s efficiency—essentially, what he did with his carries—has my interest.

Forced Missed Tackle Rate: 25.8%, 2nd (out of 14 qualifying RBs – min. 50.0% team rushing rate)
Success Rate: 46.7%, 7th
Explosive Play Rate: 10.0%, T-4th

The first two are skills inherent to the RB. They signal if a rusher can either read blocks or has the agility or power to fight through defenders. All earn them more work. And Mason got his until his shoulder gave out. But getting used between the 20s only gets us so far. We need money touches, and the 49ers gave Mason those, too.

Short-Yardage

Again, I’ll point to the obvious physical differences within the Vikings’ backfield and assume rational coaching when HC Kevin O’Connell opts to run the ball into the end zone.

Jones: 30 (age), 208 (listed weight)
Mason: 26, 223

But, hey, don’t take my word for it. San Francisco didn’t seem to have any issues making the same decision last year.

Now, here’s where I’ll support my conviction with volume. Mason handled 21 totes from within the 10-yard line from Weeks 1 to 7. That was the most of any rusher. But in this case, I’m not focused on Mason relative to his peers across the league. His dominance over his teammates matters more.

Isaac Guerendo (listed at 221 lbs) was active in every game with Mason. If he faltered, you’d expect HC Kyle Shanahan to make a change. Instead, Guerendo had two carries from the same part of the field. Said another way, Mason earned 91.3% of the green-zone rushing attempts. Of course, I’d have liked to have seen more TDs. But gaining that level of preference should be noteworthy.

Receiving Work

Rushers involved in their team’s passing attack have weekly viability. They’re less reliant on touchdowns and have more access to the ball as both a runner and receiver. Mason had both of those jobs with the 49ers.

Brock Purdy looks off the curl defenders. Switch release from Aiyuk and Juice, Jordan Mason breaks wide open on the angle. There's always an open RB in San Fran pic.twitter.com/BGYu2arqoo
— Anthony Lawson (@esquireanthony1) October 4, 2023

Mason was the (partial) solution to McCaffrey being on the mend. Now remember, I was a skeptic. I (incorrectly) looked at Mason and Guerendo, saw their physical profiles, and couldn’t tell the difference. However, Shanahan emphasized there was one.

Route Rate: 58.7% (Mason), 7.1% (Guerendo)
Target Share: 5.7%, 0.5%

The only downside was Mason’s efficiency as a receiver. Despite the opportunity, his skillset lagged behind some of the other rushers with a similar workload.

Route Rate: 58.7%, 6th (out of 14 qualifying RBs – min. 50.0% team rushing rate)
Air Yards per Target: 4.1, 1st
Yards per Route Run: 0.6, 13th

On the bright side, Mason did have the seventh-highest catch rate. And he was operating as a true receiver with route concepts extending well past the line of scrimmage. At the very least, his ability to secure a pass enables the play-calling flexibility Minnesota will need for J.J. McCarthy entering his first season as a starter. If Jones were to miss time, Mason has the traits and offensive environment to vault into the top 24 by the end of the season.