ESPN Fantasy Football Strategy: RJ Harvey and More ADP Risers and Fallers
August is fantasy football draft month; it's time to lock in. The majority of redraft leagues will host their draft sometime in the next 35 days. Training camp news is coming every day, and fantasy football ADPs are changing in real time. It's a lot to stay on top of, but the team at Fantasy Life has you covered.
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To help you keep up with how the ADP landscape is shifting, I'll be checking in with a series of articles throughout the month of August, looking at the biggest movers in ESPN fantasy football ADP. I'll examine why they are moving up and down draft boards and whether the market is overreacting or if it hasn't gone far enough.
Fallers In ESPN Fantasy Football ADP
Most of the names on this list aren't too big of a surprise, and there is a clear catalyst for why they are falling. However, there are a handful of surprising names on this list that I wasn't expecting to see.
Quinshon Judkins was arrested on domestic violence charges. The Browns have essentially told him to stay away until his legal situation is resolved. As a result, Judkins still hasn't signed his rookie deal. Beyond the risk of suspension, this is also going to slow down his integration into the offense and opens the door for fellow rookie Dylan Sampson to leapfrog him on the depth chart. This fall is deserved and is likely to continue until we get more information.
After his breakout campaign in 2024, Jonnu Smith was traded from Miami to Pittsburgh this offseason. This is a massive downgrade in offensive environment and adds to moving to a new team midway through the offseason. He will now compete for snaps and targets with Pat Freiermuth, which only lowers his projectable volume further. Smith will have some usable weeks, but his season-long outlook is much worse in Pittsburgh.
I don't have an explanation for why Zach Charbonnet is falling. Charbs is one of the best backup RBs in the NFL, and he proved last year he has massive contingent value when Kenneth Walker misses time. He even has some standalone value in weeks when the Seahawks are able to run the ball as much as they want.
It's not a major surprise that RJ Harvey is going later in drafts after the Broncos signed J.K. Dobbins earlier this summer. I believe Harvey is a nice value now that he has fallen to the late-seventh round because he never projected to be a workhorse. He should have a big role in the passing game and enough rushing work to beÂ
Sorry, Detroit Lions, I need at least a few more weeks before I give analysis on team defenses.
One of the first major injury stories of the offseason, the Najee Harris saga has gotten stranger by the day. What was first described as a 'superficial' eye injury has now resulted in Harris missing extended time. Although he is the veteran in the backfield, Najee is also new to the team, so I don't buy the idea that his absence is no big deal. This opens the door for Omarion Hampton to grab the starting job and never look back. Assuming he does get back to full health, Harris will have a role this season, but he deserves to keep falling until we see him in full-contact action.
The big story this week is that Joe Mixon is set to miss 'extended time' with a foot injury. This seems like a huge deal that the market hasn't fully reacted to yet. If he misses the rest of the offseason and into the beginning of the year, that is really bad news. I expect him to continue to fall in drafts until he is back on the field with no limitations.
Rashee Rice is facing a suspension this season after his sentencing earlier this month. He is likely to miss at least 4 games, potentially more, early in the season. He is also recovering from a major knee injury last season, but should be a full go for the second half of the season. This fall is justified, but if he continues to plummet, there is definitely a point where I will want to start drafting him for what he can provide down the stretch.
Austin Ekeler isn't the same player he once was, but he should still have a meaningful pass-catching role for one of the NFL's most exciting offenses this year. I'm not really sure why he is fallingÂ
Another faller that doesn't make a ton of sense to me, Tony Pollard, rounds out this part of the list. Titans HC Brian Callahan has mentioned wanting a more even split in the backfield this year, but there is also the potential for the offense to be much better this year with Cam Ward in town. I don't have a strong opinion on Pollard, but if he continues to slide towards pick 100, I would be happy to draft him.
Risers In ESPN Fantasy Football ADP
Similar to the ADP fallers, there are a handful of names on the ADP risers list that make perfect sense and a few that are a bit surprising.
J.K. Dobbins is still too cheap despite rising more than 24 picks on the draft board over the last seven days. Dobbins will pair with rookie RJ Harvey to make a formidable 1-2 punch in the Denver backfield behind one of the NFL's best offensive lines. He will project for a strong workload out of the gate with solid TD upside. As long as he can stay healthy, Dobbins should retain a meaningful workload all season long and will easily pay off his ADP even if he rises two rounds from here.
Dak Prescott is in for a big season. Dallas traded for George Pickens and just signed Jake Ferguson to a long-term extension. The Cowboys also have one of the worst backfields in the league so unless they add someone before the season starts, I expect their rushing attack to be poor, which should only lead to more passing volume.
Is this finally the year Kyle Pitts delivers on his ADP? He's going later in drafts than ever, and the early training camp reports have been positive, but he has yet to live up to the hype that surrounded him when he entered the NFL. Still just 24 years old, I want to believe this is his year, but it also might be the last chance for Pitts to deliver for fantasy managers before he begins the descent into 'remember that guy' territory.
Another QB riser, Jared Goff, is up a round and a half in ADP over the last week, but I'm not entirely sure why. My guess is that there were so few drafts completed earlier in the summer that some of the QBs and TEs had their averages dragged down by going undrafted a few times, and that is starting to be corrected. The Lions have all the same weapons as last year when Goff finished as the QB7 in points per game, but they lost seven assistant coaches, which creates a level of uncertainty for their 2025 outlook.
Yet another QB moving up the draft board, Jordan Love struggled with injuries for much of the 2024 season. I'm pretty high on his potential for 2025 if Green Bay goes with less of a run-heavy approach this year. His ADP of 139 is very late.
As I mentioned in the Prescott section, Jake Ferguson just got a four-year extension. That doesn't really have a major impact on his 2025 outlook, but it is at least nice to know he is a part of the team's long-term plans.Â
On the opposite end of the Quinshon Judkins news is Jerome Ford, who has a much better chance to hold onto the starting job for a chunk of the season if Judkins misses extended time. He's still going at the very end of drafts, but could be a valuable piece early in the season if Judkins is a zero.
With all due respect to Tyler Loop, it is too early in the summer for kicker analysis, even if the reasons for his rise are obvious.
Dallas Goedert was rumored to be a trade candidate earlier in the offseason but agreed to a re-worked contract to stay with Philly. The certainty of staying in a familiar situation may be slowly boosting his value as other TEs fall due to injury and offseason moves (looking at you, Jonnu). He's fine at his current ADP, but I don't think he should rise significantly from here.
The final ADP riser is the most confusing for me. Baker Mayfield is up nearly 12 spots to the mid-sixth round in 12-team leagues. Mayfield had a great season in 2024, but I don't think I would take him this high in redraft leagues for 2025. The Bucs lost Liam Coen to the Jaguars, and although they have one of the most talented groups of pass catchers in the NFL, it is going to be very difficult for Mayfield to repeat his 40+ TD performance from last year.
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