Fantasy Football ADP Risers and Fallers: Omarion Hampton Up, Joe Mixon Down

You might've noticed recently that we've updated a number of features and tools on our site, including the excellent Fantasy Life Fantasy Football ADP Tool.

Now that we're in the heart of draft SZN, I will provide regular reports on notable week-to-week risers and fallers in average draft position (ADP) with some analysis on how I view the moves.

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Risers In Fantasy Football ADP Over The Last Week

Bo Nix | QB | Broncos

Consensus ADP: 85.8 (QB8)
Sleeper ADP: 83.7 (+5.1)

Bo Nix's ADP has bumped up at all platforms over the past week, with the largest move coming at Sleeper.

What's the cause?

Nix was recently named the No. 64 player on this year's NFL Top 100 list. That's the kind of midsummer attention that can motivate certain types of drafters and remind them of how respectable Nix's rookie campaign was (66.3% completion rate, 6.7 AY/A, 92-430-4 rushing, 10 wins, playoff berth).

That said … Nix is on my do-not-draft list.

He's the No. 10 QB in my season-long player projections and No. 10 QB in my 2025 redraft fantasy rankings.

I expect him to be solid, but I doubt that his ceiling is significantly higher than that of many QBs available later in the draft.

Christian McCaffrey | RB | 49ers

Consensus ADP: 10.5 (RB5)
Sleeper ADP: 13.7 (+4.2)

Everyone—drafters, experts, and rankers alike—are starting to realize that Christian McCaffrey is fully healthy and that the 49ers offense could flow through the backfield given all the uncertainty with the team's WR room (Deebo Samuel is gone, Brandon Aiyuk is on active/PUP, Ricky Pearsall is unproven, and Jauan Jennings recently suffered a calf injury).

Last year—without the benefit of getting in football shape in training camp—McCaffrey had 281 yards on 43 carries and 16 targets in his three full games with an 88 Utilization Score (per our industry-leading Fantasy Life Utilization Report).

Among RBs, McCaffrey is No. 1 in my projections and No. 3 in my rankings.

If you're of the opinion that he'll be healthy this year and play like himself, then McCaffrey is still too cheap.

Omarion Hampton | RB | Chargers

Consensus ADP: 44.1 (RB17)
Underdog ADP: 34.8 (+4.7)

Drafters have aggressively moved on Omarion Hampton—especially at Underdog—because Najee Harris suffered a fireworks-related eye injury on the Fourth of July and then opened training camp on the Non-Football Injury (NFI) list.

On top of that, HC Jim Harbaugh said last week that he didn't know if Harris would be back for camp—and then Harris showed up to camp looking like a new-age Sith lord with a hoodie and dark sunglasses hiding his face and eyes.

I understand the enthusiasm for Hampton: He's a first-round rookie, and he did well in Dwain McFarland's RB Rookie Super Model.

I still think Harris will be ready for Week 1, and I expect his veteran between-the-tackles ability to appeal to Harbaugh and OC Gregg Roman—but Hampton is the guy in this backfield with the true upside.

We talked about the situation with Hampton and Harris on the Fantasy Life Show last week.

Emeka Egbuka | WR | Buccaneers

Consensus ADP: 119.7 (WR51)
Yahoo ADP: 127.1 (+2.1)

Despite getting a bump on Yahoo, Emeka Egbuka is still notably discounted there given his ADP on Sleeper (115.2) and especially Underdog (80.0).

Why has Egbuka shot up the board?

Last week, the Bucs placed veteran WR Chris Godwin on the active/PUP list to open training camp, and news broke that Godwin had a second ankle surgery this spring after suffering a season-ending dislocation last year.

Egbuka is one of the 32 players I want to draft this year: No. 1 WR Mike Evans will be 32 years old soon, Godwin is highly uncertain for Week 1, and—even with his recent surge up the board—Egbuka is still cheap for a rookie first-round WR with good college production (81-1,011-10 receiving last year) and athleticism (4.42-second 40-yard dash).

Fallers In Fantasy Football ADP Over The Last Week

Jared Goff | QB | Lions

Consensus ADP: 113.2 (QB12)
ESPN ADP: 132.5 (-19.5)

Goff is cheap on ESPN relative to his ADP elsewhere, but he still dropped down the board this past week at almost every platform.

I'm not sure why—but maybe casual drafters are remembering that:

OC Ben Johnson left in January.
C Frank Ragnow retired in June.
He's Jared Goff.

Goff was awesome last year with career-high marks in completion rate (72.4%) and AY/A (9.0), and he has maybe the league's best collection of skill-position players (RBs Jahmyr Gibbs & David Montgomery, WRs Amon-Ra St. Brown & Jameson Williams, TE Sam LaPorta).

But without Johnson and Ragnow, he could easily regress to the passing numbers he had in his first three seasons with the Lions (66.5% completion rate, 7.5 AY/A), and he offers little as a runner.

Goff should be selected in most fantasy leagues, but my enthusiasm for him is muted.

Joe Mixon | RB | Texans

Consensus ADP: 50.7 (RB20)
Underdog ADP: 68.9 (-10.8)

The market for Joe Mixon has cratered—especially on Underdog—since news broke that he will miss multiple weeks of training camp after opening camp on the active/NFI list because of the foot and ankle injuries that plagued him last year.

The goal/hope is for Mixon to be ready by Week 1, but the Texans added veteran Nick Chubb and rookie Woody Marks to the backfield this offseason, and it's hard for a past-his-prime RB (Mixon is 29 years old) to outperform expectations (or even meet them) during the season when he's already injured.

The pessimism surrounding Mixon is probably warranted.

Justin Jefferson | WR | Vikings

Consensus ADP: 5.0 (WR2)
Underdog ADP: 3.8 (-1.0)

Justin Jefferson is more than a full spot ahead of consensus ADP at Underdog (and one spot means a lot at the top of the draft), and yet he has still dropped a spot on the platform over the past week because of a "mild hamstring strain" that he suffered in practice.

Soft-tissue injuries suffered in training camp have an annoying tendency of reappearing during the season—and Jefferson was already someone I was passing up in drafts.

He's a great player, but Jefferson is expensive based on his surprisingly low projection, which I suppose isn't all that surprising given that QB J.J. McCarthy has never attempted an NFL pass in the regular season.

With Jefferson, especially now that he's injured, a mild amount of caution is advisable.

Jonnu Smith | TE | Steelers

Consensus ADP: 120.1 (TE11)
Underdog ADP: 177.9 (-8.4)

Last year, Jonnu Smith finally broke out with 88-884-8 receiving on 111 targets with the Dolphins … but then they traded him to the Steelers in June … and then he suffered a day-to-day injury last week.

Smith will probably be "fine" for Week 1, but ask yourself this question: Can a TE ever really be fine with OC Arthur Smith as his playcaller?

The market thinks not.