Fantasy Football Bold Predictions for Week 2: Dolphins Bounce Back

Boldness, like beauty, is in the eye of the beholder.

For my full thoughts on the characteristics of a fearless forecast, see my Week 1 NFL bold predictions piece, but each week I want to make 3-5 predictions that are both doubtful and consequential.

Implausible … yet actionable.

In a word: Bold.

And that means I'll be technically wrong a supermajority of the time. I'm OK with that … as long as I'm directionally right at least half the time.

Rankings, Projections, and Content

I think of this piece as a companion to my weekly rankings and my weekly projections, which will reflect any updated opinions I have after I submit this article.

For more of my player analysis, check out my Week 2 Freedman's Favorites series (via my Fantasy Life author page).

Quarterbacks
Running Backs
Wide Receivers
Tight Ends

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Abbreviations I might use are at the end of the piece.

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Let's get to it: The Oracle's Week 2 bold calls!

The Oracle's Week 2 Bold Predictions for Fantasy Football

Tua Tagovailoa (Dolphins) vs. Patriots: Dolphins Bounce Back

The Dolphins were humiliated last week in a 33-8 loss to the Colts, and they were honestly lucky not to be shut out.

The vibes around HC Mike McDaniel, QB Tua Tagovailoa, and the entire team are BAD.

On top of that, the Dolphins—who already have one of the league's worst OLs—might be without both RT Austin Jackson (toe) and RG James Daniels (pectoral).

And I'm also skeptical that TE Darren Waller (hip) will play this week after missing last week.

But the Pats are also bad, maybe even worse than the Dolphins, who—as terrible as they were last week—are still -1.5 favorites (per our NFL Odds page).

And the Pats could be without CB Christian Gonzalez (hamstring), who missed Week 1. Without him (as home favorites) they allowed QB Geno Smith—in his first game with the Raiders and OC Chip Kelly—to pass for 362 yards, even though he was without first-team All-Pro TE Brock Bowers for much of the contest.

And it's not as if this is a one-game thing for the Pats. Last year they were No. 30 in defensive dropback EPA (0.183, per RBs Don't Matter).

Tagovailoa was bad in Week 1 (114 yards and one TD passing, two INTs).

I think the Dolphins will probably struggle this year.

But we can't ignore how productive Tagovailoa has been over the past 3+ seasons. With McDaniel as his play caller, Tagovailoa has averaged 265.5 yards passing per game.

In 2023, he led the league with 4,624 yards passing. In 2024, he led the league with a 72.9% completion rate.

In 2025, Tagovailoa is likely to have a spike game at some point.

Why not at home?

This game is at Hard Rock Stadium, where the Dolphins have one of the league's best home-field advantages (per NFElo). In Miami, Tagovailoa for his career is 21-12 ATS (21.6% ROI, per Action Network).

And why not against the Pats? For his career, Tagovailoa against the Patriots is 7-0 ATS (91.2% ROI).

I think this is a massive bounce-back spot for Tagovailoa and the Dolphins.

Bold Prediction: Tagovailoa passes for 300+ yards and 3+ TDs.

Bengals (Offense) vs. Jaguars: Cincinnati Erupts Against Jacksonville

Last week the Bengals scored just 17 points and had only 141 total yards of offense against the Browns. But there are several factors that we need to consider.

First, the Bengals almost always underwhelm in Week 1. In the season opener, QB Joe Burrow is now 1-5 ATS.

Margin: -7.33
ROI: -67.9%

It's in keeping for the Bengals to suck in Week 1.

Second, the Bengals were playing a divisional opponent—and Burrow has had stark splits in that situation for his career.

Burrow In Division: 12-14 ATS | -1.00 Margin | -12.0% ROI
Burrow Outside Division: 34-16-1 ATS | +2.12 Margin | 29.7% ROI

It's not a surprise that the Bengals would struggle against a divisional foe.

Third, this game was a divisional outdoor matchup, and that tends to cater to the under, especially early in the year.

Outdoor Divisional Under: 869-751-29 | +0.23 Margin | 4.0% ROI
Outdoor Divisional Under (Weeks 1-2): 110-72-2 | +1.71 Margin | 16.8% ROI

It would have been reasonable to expect diminished scoring in the Browns-Bengals game.

Finally, the Browns' defense is good. Since 2023, when the team hired DC Jim Schwartz, the Browns are No. 1 in defensive EPA (-0.068) and SR (39.1%). Few people think of them this way, but there's a real case to be made that the Browns have one of the league's best defenses.

But this week the Bengals face the non-divisional Jaguars, who last year were No. 31 in defensive EPA (0.131) and DVOA (17.1%). They held the Panthers to 10 points last week, but also … it's the Panthers. Allowing them to score 10 points probably isn't a flex.

And new Jags DC Anthony Campanile has just one game of NFL play-calling experience.

As -3.5 favorites, the Bengals are a five-star bet this week (per our Fantasy Life Game Model).

They could go off in a big way, which would be big for most/all their skill-position players.

Bold Prediction: Bengals score 50+ points.

Lions (Defense) vs. Bears: Will The Bears Be Held Scoreless?

The Lions just allowed 27 points to the Packers in Week 1, and the Bears put up 24 points on Monday Night Football, so on the surface it might not look as if the Bears will struggle to score.

But they struggled on offense after their opening scripted plays were exhausted. From the second quarter on, they were No. 30 in offensive SR (31.6%).

Now they're going on the road, with a one-day rest deficit, to face a superior Lions team that knows new Bears HC Ben Johnson extremely well (from his previous six years on staff) and is desperate to avoid back-to-back losses to open the season.

The Bears were dreadful running the ball last week—No. 32 in rush SR (19.0%)—and QB Caleb Williams (despite opening MNF with 10 straight completions) finished the week No. 27 in composite EPA + CPOE (0.013).

In a matchup of wild animals, I expect the Lions to devour the Bears.

Bold Prediction: Lions hold Bears to zero points.

Abbreviations

Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
Against the Spread (ATS)
Over/Under (O/U)
Team Total (TT)
Moneyline (ML)
Return on Investment (ROI)
Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
Expected Points Added (EPA)
Success Rate (SR)
Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
Short Down and Distance (SDD)
Long Down and Distance (LDD)