Fantasy Football Guillotine Leagues™ Mailbag: Does David Montgomery Need To Score To Avoid The Chop?

Regular listeners to Fantasy Football Weekly are familiar with a long-running segment called Three Tough Questions.  Even if you haven't heard the show, you can probably imagine what the segment entails.  

We've opened our mailbag to ask for your toughest questions surrounding Guillotine Leagues™, the best way to play fantasy football. 

Content warning: These questions are so difficult, they could lead to anxiety, nausea, constipation, pink eye, thigh chafing, athlete's foot, and crabs.

Guillotine Leagues™Mailbag

Q: Charch, we know you're skittish about drafting rookies in Guillotine Leagues™, but what about TreVeyon Henderson who looks like a potential superstar?
New England's 2nd-round pick is rocketing up draft boards and it's easy to see why. He's electric, fast, slippery, and he's got good hands. Henderson wowed everyone in his preseason debut with his untouched 100-yard kickoff return. And after that, he had a very fast run down the left sideline for 18 yards in his only carry. Plus he caught three passes. Heckuva debut for Henderson. 

I hate being a wet blanket, but I'm nervous about Henderson in Guillotine Leagues™ specifically. Rhamondre Stevenson got seven carries with the first team offense on Friday. And, to my eyes, he looked really good. It's easy to write off Stevenson based on last year's struggles, but he was playing hurt and running behind the league's worst offensive line.  

I see a "Thunder and Lightning" committee coming to New England. I saw this stat go past my X timeline, and I'm afraid I don't recall who said it, but it's highly informative: Josh McDaniels has had a workhorse back in *one* of his 18 years as offensive coordinator or head coach. You already know split workload timeshares can be dangerous in Guillotine Leagues™. 

And most rookies start slowly—Almost every player with a first-round ADP this year, started inconsistently in September and October of his rookie year.

Henderson is a good receiver and hopefully his receptions will help keep his floor safe. But, for where he's being drafted (Round 4), you can find safer options.

Q: How much does Jordan Addison's three-game suspension affect him in Guillotine Leagues™ drafts?

Guillotine Leagues™ drafters are taking Jordan Addison at pick 75, which is a massive mistake. 

Addison's three-game suspension is far more punishing in Guillotine Leagues™ than any other way you'll play. In standard leagues, I've got him at pick 83. In Guillotine Leagues™, he's fallen all the way down to pick 138. The 55-pick slide highlights how much I value September. 

Obviously, nobody wants to get cut in September, and Addison's normal draft position, Round 5, would make him a needed starter. If you draft Addison, you also need to find a replacement receiver later in your draft, which is much tougher in an 18-team draft.

Compounding matters, the Vikings have a Week 6 bye, so you'll only get two games from Addison until Week 7. There's a high likelihood that he'll get cut at least once (if not more) before Week 7. And you can acquire him at that point, if you want.

As Dwain McFarland outlined in his new podcast Talk Data to Me, there's a lot to love about Addison's prospects after Week 7, when J.J. McCarthy should be acclimated to the NFL. So, let's plan to bid on him when he gets chopped early in the season. 

Q: Is David Montgomery too touchdown dependent to be an RB2 in Guillotine Leagues™?

David Montgomery's Guillotine Leagues™ ADP is weirdly low, Pick 77. I like him a lot more than the public, at Pick 49 overall. 

Particularly through the first two months of the season, I'm trying to get 10 PPR points out of each of my players. Monty had 10+ PPR points in every full game! 

You already know Monty is a beast at the goal line. He tied for seventh in carries and seventh in touchdowns from inside the five-yard line last year. Seventh! Yet he's going off the board as RB26! What gives?!

I know what you're thinking, "But Charch, what about when Monty doesn't score? Will he get me chopped? Hold me, I'm scared!"

First, I'll mention that he failed to score in only three of his 13 full games last year. In those three games, he scored 10, 13 and 15 PPR points! Not bad! He's not LaDainian Tomlinson, but Monty's pass catching gives him a shockingly safe floor. He caught 3+ balls in nine different games.  It doesn't sound like much, but 3 catches for 30 yards gets you 6 PPR points before you factor in his rushing yards. 

So, I remain high on Montgomery and I'm comfortable drafting him as a Week 1 starter.

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