Fantasy Football Mailbag: Projecting Cam Ward, Matthew Golden, And More

Last week I asked the lovely fantasy football diehards on Twitter to send me questions on anything and everything.

*Law and Order music*
These are their stories.

Fantasy Football Mailbag Questions

xEP Network | Projections & Analytics: Which WR has a sneaky shot of being a TD demon this season?

So the 2025 version of TD Jesus Nick Westbrook-Ikhine? Love it—here are my top-three candidates with a current ADP outside of the top-50 options at the position to fulfill the "sneaky" part of the question:

Bills WR Keon Coleman: The rookie sure seemed to earn Josh Allen's trust as a jump-ball specialist (look at this shit!) and he also displayed some surprisingly fun after-the-catch ability on his way to joining some pretty damn good company to lead the position in Next-Gen Stats' YAC above expected per reception. Allen has thrown at least 28 TDs in five consecutive seasons—there's potential here for Coleman to become a rich man's version of Gabe Davis.
Packers WR Romeo Doubs: Racked up 8 scores in 2023, but fell back to earth a bit with just 4 last season. Still, Doubs continues to profile as the Packers' starting 'X' receiver alongside Jayden Reed and (probably) Matthew Golden. Throw in the potential extended absence of Christian Watson (knee), and it wouldn't be surprising to see the team's largest human being at the position finish closer to 10 scores than 5 this season.
Colts WR Alec Pierce: Deep balls and contested catches—that's what Alec Pierce does. The Colts' reigning team leader in receiving yards led the NFL in yards per reception (22.3) and yards per target (11.9); he's a threat to take it the distance anytime his number is called. The obvious elephant in the room is the reality that neither Daniel Jones nor Anthony Richardson exactly profile as good bets to throw 30-plus TDs this year; just realize Pierce has a fantasy-friendly big-play skill-set in an offense largely devoid of field-stretching specialists.

Kelly Regan: In auction drafts do you go with a balanced approach or a stars and scrubs approach?

I conveniently just published an auction article highlighting some tips and tricks for the format! You can check that out here.

That said: I generally prefer a more balanced approach. You won't see me coughing up twice as much cheddar for someone like Ja'Marr Chase ($66 in our Auction Values) when it's possible to get two of guys like Nico Collins, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Drake London, A.J. Brown, and Ladd McConkey for the same price. A similar sentiment is true at RB; I feel like the STEEP dropoff in price from the upper-elite tier to the next batch of ballers is a bit unwarranted.

Of course, this depends on the draft; a more mindful and cautious room could have me chasing Chase (ha!) if the price point winds up being something closer to $45, but more times than not I try to stick to a plan around modest price points and accordingly don't make a habit of getting into bidding wars.

Jeremy - r/fantasyfootball mod: If you could start an 8-man league with 1 NFL player and 6 non-Fantasy Life analysts, who are you including?

The player would have to be Cordarrelle Patterson. After all, I am unofficially the official President of the Cordarrelle Patterson fan club. Either way: Getting to play with the NFL's GOAT kick returner (not punts, chill out Bears fans) and overall baller playmaker would be an honor and a privilege.

As for the non-Fantasy Life analysts:

Chuck Bass in the hopes of one day being invited to one of his Ozempic Trials fantasy leagues.
Andrew Cooper the reigning, defending FSWA Football Writer of the Year who is generally just a cool fooking dude.
Justin Boone because he beat me in our dynasty league finals last year and I want revenge!
John Daigle since I invited him to my wedding, so yeah, you could say he's a friend (love ya Daigle).
Justin Herzig because I want to beat the alleged best fantasy football player in the world per Rolling Stone.
Mauricio Gutiérrez, who cracks me up and is a great human being, BUT also someone who I enjoy continuing a heated, yet lighthearted, rivalry within our existing fantasy leagues.

John Byrne: Following Darren Waller’s shock return, which retired running back could come back and be an RB1? Probably a college’s all-time leading rusher, if I had to guess myself.

People forget the great Duke Johnson is The U's all-time leading rusher!

Duke Johnson (3,519 yards)
Ottis Anderson (3,331)
Edgerrin James (2,960)
James Jackson (2,953)
Clinton Portis (2,523)

You know who doesn't forget? The guy with the Underdog/Sleeper/Fast Draft handles "FREEDUKEJOHNSON".

Mike Sanda: With LAC and JAC adding intriguing immediate-starter rookie WRs and both also likely having improved run games …

Are BTJ & Ladd being drafted near their ceilings at ADPs of WR8 & WR11, respectively? 😱
Or are JAC & LAC just going to smash their 7.5 & 9.5 projected win totals? 🤔

You can make the argument that pretty much any top-12 WR or RB is being drafted near their ceiling, but in BTJ and Ladd's cases we actually saw both exceed these current ADPs during later portions of last season:

BTJ's post-bye performance in Weeks 13-18 was borderline erotic: Literally only Ja'Marr Chase (25.2 PPR points per game) racked up more fantasy production than Thomas (22.9) down the stretch.
McConkey's 19.2 PPR points per game from Week 8 through the playoffs was good for WR5 status behind only Ja'Marr Chase, Mike Evans, Tee Higgins, and Amon-Ra St. Brown.

I wouldn't necessarily confuse early WR ADP with the potential to smash win totals, although I did happen to take the over for both the Chargers and Jaguars in my team preview series, so "Bolt up" and "Duuuvall"!

DCam: I have the 5th pick coming up and my heart just says no one can break fantasy like CMC. Yes, history of injuries, etc, but how exactly do you project the likelihood of past injuries to future injuries in your rankings? We did the same thing with Saquon last year & you know …

CMC does lead all RBs and WRs in PPR points per game … ever … so I would say your heart is on to something!

As for the injury history: I agree that it's generally a bit overstated for certain players. While most would have to admit McCaffrey is at more injury risk than the average back, we shouldn't exactly treat this idea as a binary "you either are or aren't injury prone." Note that Jonathan Taylor (16) has actually missed more games than McCaffrey (14) over the past three seasons.

I appreciate the work that Draft Sharks does in giving each player a specific chance of injury–CMC's 63.6% mark is indeed higher than guys like Bijan Robinson (41.9%) and Jahmyr Gibbs (62.6%), but is that discrepancy really enough to fade the aforementioned reality that the longtime stud boasts more fantasy upside than pretty much anyone else on the planet? Ultimately, learned doctors believe McCaffrey is fully healthy ahead of 2025 and are willing to bet on him. I am, too!

Alex Parham: Cam Ward final rookie season numbers, does Tyjae Spears take on more of the share with Tony Pollard, and what do we think about Matthew Golden? Not a Titans fan, just have a questionable few players on the team. #GoPackGo

First up: No. 1 overall pick Cam Ward. Fantasy Life Projections have Ward passing for 3,493 yards and 20.4 TDs. While these seem like modest enough numbers, they would rank 18th and 19th in NFL history among rookie QBs. While the future certainly looks bright for the Titans' gunslinger, I'll settle with 3,620 yards and 21 TDs inside an offense with very little firepower outside of Calvin Ridley.

As for Spears and Pollard: It's tough to be completely sure of the split considering both dealt with various injuries throughout the year. Accordingly, the first four games of the season are probably our best bet when searching for a good sample, albeit even this stretch isn't perfect due to Spears playing through an ankle issue.

Either way: Both Pollard (94% snaps in Week 12) and to a lesser extent Spears (65% in Week 17 before being ruled out with a concussion) are an injury to the other away from assuming a legit every-down workhorse role. This makes their respective RB3/RB4 price tags pretty enticing considering the FLEX-with-benefits upside to both. I've preferred Spears (RB41) to Pollard (RB27) due to the latter back going around guys with similar volume in better offenses like Isiah Pacheco and Brian Robinson, but both generally profile as the sort of zero-RB targets managers should be looking to target in the mid-to-late rounds.

And finally Packers rookie WR Matthew Golden: Mr. 4.29 should earn a starting spot sooner rather than later inside a room that figures to be missing Christian Watson (knee) for the first half (or more) of the year, although we shouldn't completely count out the other involved parties. Personally, I have been drafting Jayden Reed a bit more often at their similar ADPs, but both are talented enough inside a perennially good-to-great offense to warrant exposure at their affordable WR4 price tags.

Wetkittybandit: f*ck it … QB stats: Bortles vs. Trubisky and Levis vs. Lock

Now we're getting somewhere!

The Blake Bortles and Mitchell Trubisky efficiency numbers are eerily similar. This makes me feel even better about calling Trubisky "Midwest Bortles" over the years.

Yards per attempt: Bortles (6.7), Trubisky (6.7)
TD rate: Bortles (3.9%), Trubisky (3.9%)
INT rate: Bortles (2.8%), Trubisky (2.5%)
Passer rating: Bortles (80.6), Trubisky (86.0)

As for Will Levis and Drew Lock: I prefer to look at PFF's big-time throw and turnover-worthy play rate metrics to get an accurate play-style portrait of these two gunslingers. Neither should be confused with a "good" NFL QB, but each has supplied plenty of entertainment over the years for better and (more often) worse. You know you're doing something right … and wrong … when you're this close to Jameis Winston on pretty much any chart.

Jordan Harmelink: Which TEs are off the board before you say, "welp....guess I'm streaming TE every week"

Let's go down the list of current Underdog ADP:

Brock Bowers: Good to go.
Trey McBride: Good to go.
George Kittle: Good to go.
Sam LaPorta: Maybe not in the same tier, but still not worried about streaming.
T.J. Hockenson: I worry about Hockenson's volume alongside the Vikings' WR duo inside an offense that could run the ball more than in past years, but this still feels a bit early to draw the line.
Travis Kelce: If a washed version of Kelce still finished as the TE6 in PPR points per game, it really can't get much worse in 2025, right? RIGHT?
Mark Andrews: Caught a career-high 11 TDs last year despite the slow start and presence of Isaiah Likely. This offense is probably too good to let their longtime No. 1 pass-catcher fall off a cliff, although I'm not exactly 100% confident here.
Evan Engram: One of only five TEs Fantasy Life projects for triple-digit targets.
Tyler Warren: Potential range of outcomes in 2025 seemingly goes from No. 3 or 4 overall target in a meh passing game … to THE featured receiver inside an offense that has generally gotten the most out of its QBs under Shane Steichen.
David Njoku: Also one of only five TEs Fantasy Life projects for triple-digit targets.
Tucker Kraft: DOG, but this is a potential run-first offense with plenty of mouths to feed in the passing game.
Colston Loveland: I wouldn't count out any top-10 pick from contributing in a major way from Day 1, although the lingering shoulder injury and crowded offense has me more excited about Loveland in dynasty land than 2025 re-draft leagues.

Overall, I'd draw the line at consistently feeling GREAT about your TE after Kittle, while the streaming line for me is after Engram and Njoku, whom I personally actually have ranked ahead of Kelce, Andrews, and Warren.

Fantasy Football Mailbag: Projecting Cam Ward, Matthew Golden, And More

Fantasy Football Mailbag Questions

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