Fantasy Football Mailbag: Projections For Puka Nacua, DK Metcalf, And More
Geoff Ulrich fields questions and answers them in our latest fantasy football mailbag edition.
I went into the (FREE) Fantasy Life Discord this week and asked members to hit me with their most pertinent fantasy (and life) questions.
We laughed, we cried, we argued about Stefon Diggs’ relevance.
Here were the most pertinent questions that came up…
Fantasy Football Mailbag Questions
On that pesky Matthew Stafford Epidural
Are you concerned about the Rams' offense with Matthew Stafford's injury and whether Jimmy G needs to take over to start the season?
Jimmy Garoppolo’s lone start last season in Week 18 (against the Seahawks starters) produced a 334-2-1 line with a 65% completion rate and an average 8.1 yards per attempt—while playing with the backup WRs.
For reference, Stafford completed 65% of his passes last season for 7.3 yards per attempt in 2024.
Jimmy G would also be operating a Rams offense that went and upgraded the WR2 position by getting Davante Adams.
That said, I’m not going to try and pull the wool over your eyes and pretend Garoppolo is just another version of Matthew Stafford. He’s (Garoppolo) 34 now, and while his efficiency numbers were great in San Francisco, he also had a plethora of after-the-catch monsters to work with, including prime George Kittle and Deebo Samuel.
It would be a downgrade, but I could see the big offense names still performing well for fantasy, even if the Rams' overall record takes a bigger hit.
There is more risk with the Rams skill players than before, but a prolonged Stafford injury might not be terrible either.
Thoughts on impact on Puka and Davante, and Kyren in redraft? I mean safe to say 📉 but to what level?
Funnily enough, I had the eighth pick in a best ball draft the day the Stafford news dropped and ended up taking Malik Nabers (9.4 ADP UD) over Puka Nacua (9.0 UD).
For me, this kind of slight downgrade makes sense until we get more Stafford clarity. I still view Puka as a first-round pick, but the chances of a drop in efficiency during the season are increased now with the Stafford injury risk. I wouldn’t go too far, but elevating names like Nico Collins (9.8 UD) and Nabers above Puka in the first round is likely a good way to play this situation, for now.
Adams is a player I was already semi-bearish on from a valuation standpoint, and am OK avoiding altogether with the increased Stafford injury risk. If he starts dropping past Xavier Worthy (40.8 ADP), I might be OK with some exposure, but it’s still hard to click him over someone like DK Metcalf, who appears like he’ll be the clear focal point of his team’s offense.
Adams has far more risk, in my opinion, without Stafford.
As Matthew Freedman laid out nicely here, part of Kyren Williams’ upside is attached to his stranglehold on red zone carries. Garoppolo likely hurts him in that regard, as you would have to project the Rams for less red zone trips. However, the trade off is that Wiliams could take a bigger role in the passing game with Jimmy G.
Williams was someone I was already actively targeting at his current level, as I feel like he’s a little undervalued given that he’s the clear bell cow on what is projected to be a solid Rams team. I’m still OK drafting him at his current levels, even with the Stafford risk, but view him more as a high, high-end RB2 now (or a tandem back in some kind of Double Hero RB strategy) than as a low-end RB1.
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On the Cowboys, I mean, backfield …
How bad is the Dallas backfield going to be for fantasy?
Let’s run through the scenarios.
- Three-headed disaster (worst case): Miles Sanders and Javonte Williams split time and underwhelm. Jaydon Blue gets work, but for one reason or another, can’t overtake both guys for a significant role. No one does anything significant for fantasy, woof.
- Williams (or Sanders) gets bell cow status (could be good): As inefficient as both of these veterans have been the last two seasons, all it would take is for one to get injured (or just be completely outplayed or ineffective) for the other to excel. I view Williams as the better bet based on age (25 vs. 28) and the fact that he is a solid passing-catching back and one of the best RBs in pass protection.
- Blue is too good to keep off the field (unlikely, but possible): Blue is the most explosive of this trio and likely has the best pure upside of the group. BUT, this is a fifth-round rookie we are talking about with two veterans to climb over for work in a complex offense. Even if he does start to take significant work, Williams is likely still going to play a lot on passing downs.
So there you have it. Three scenarios, and none of them look super great to be honest. I view Williams as having the best floor, especially in PPR leagues, with Blue likely having the best pure upside, but with plenty to overcome to make that upside actually tangible.
All-in-all, there is plenty of risk drafting Cowboy RBs, but you bet on the right horse and, at those low ADPs, it could pay off nicely.
Who ya got? WR Strategy and Analysis…
DK Metcalf, DJ Moore, Courtland Sutton, and Zay Flowers are all going near the same spot in PPR redraft leagues. Do you feel any type of way in which order you're drafting them?
I’m gonna present a quick case for all four guys (with stats to help support), and then give you my take below.
- DK Metcalf: Will be the clear focal point of the offense. Even with semi-mediocre QB play, he managed 14 catches on targets 20+ yards downfield last year (second in league).
- DJ Moore: No. 1 WRs in Ben Johnson offenses thrived in Detroit (Amon-Ra St. Brown WR3 last two seasons). Moore had 3 TDs over 20 yards last season (thrd most in NFL).
- Courtland Sutton: 12 catches on targets 20+ yards downfield (fifth) in 2024. Attached to an emerging elite QB and has little competition for downfield targets. Potentially most undervalued of the group.
- Zay Flowers: Just posted first 1,000-yard season, was top 10 in yards after the catch and 20+ yards catches.
My Take: It’s a strong group. In half-PPR leagues Sutton and Metcalf get bumps in my opinion for their TD rates and clear-cut standing as their team’s WR1. In a vacuum, I give a slight lean to Metcalf, although I view Sutton as the lead WR1 in a Sean McVay offense with Bo Nix throwing him the ball as a “safer” pick (with a better valuation attached).
1v1
At what point in time in a draft are you more inclined to lean on the side of elite offense and the No. 2 WR vs. the No. 1 in a projected average/below average offense? Example: Calvin Ridley vs Devonta Smith
I tend to think the No. 2 WRs in this situation tend to be more undervalued, outside of perhaps Tee Higgins, who is being drafted alongside other elite No. 1 WRs this season. The handcuff value attached to the No. 2 WR gives them some hidden upside, alongside that built safety of being attached to a great offense.
But it’s all situationally dependant.
Ridley seems safe because we can project him to be the leader in targets for Tennessee quite easily, and he’s getting a QB upgrade. However, he’s also 30 and unlikely to have a huge spike in production at this point.
Smith is still just 26, and the Eagles have an 11.5 win total and are very likely to be a top-five team again in terms of points scored. In comparison, the Titans' season-long win total is set at just 5.5.
Each 1v1 scenario is different, but with Smith also having “handcuff value” in that he’d instantly be the No. 1 WR in a top-five offense if A.J. Brown went down, I see him as the better pick, despite Ridley’s standing as the top receiver in Tennessee.
1v1v1
PPR league, you are on the clock. Who are you taking: Omarion Hampton, Chase Brown, or Bucky Irving?
As much as I appreciate the bullish take from our leader on Chargers rookie Omarion Hampton, there are roadblocks to Hampton achieving first-year success, like Najee Harris regaining his eyesight soon. The recent injury to Rashawn Slater (which occurred after Hampton was declared this year’s “ride or die”) is noteworthy.
I love Chase Brown, and I don’t think you are going wrong with either Brown or Irving, if you have to choose. But, for me, Irving has the best pure upside.
Irving’s rate of carries going for more than 10 yards last year led the league at 13%, a number that surpassed both Saquon Barkley and Jahmyr Gibbs. Irving also had a 90% catch rate as a rookie.
He’s (potentially) going 3-5 spots too low right now in my opinion.
On Redraft Strategy…
Should I be worried about starting a draft with teammates in the first two rounds like Bijan+London or Saquon+A.J. Brown? Only one ball to go around so I’d need their offense to be great every week
The biggest thing you have to be wary of when drafting teammates is that you are increasing your downside if you're wrong, but also increasing your upside if you’re right. Some people shy away from this, but we’re trying to get first in a 12-team or bigger league for the most part in fantasy, so you always want to play for upside. I guarantee the people who took Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase, AND Chase Brown, were not hating life last season.
As always, situation matters. In general, in redraft leagues, if I’m spending high draft capital on teammates, then it’s gotta be from a team that projects to be one of the highest scoring in the league. Even if the “value” is good, getting too much exposure to mediocre offenses is a good way to create a mediocre fantasy team.
Using Vegas win totals (which you can find in our NFL Futures Tool) is a good way to get a quick read on which teams you should be OK with doubling or even tripling up on.
We understand every team has draftable guys but are there any franchises you're avoiding if possible because they appear to be dumpster fires (Browns, Cowboys, Saints...)?
Saints: I am OK taking some shots here with Rashid Shaheed or Chris Olave. Both are fantastic talents who should benefit from garbage time and pass heavy game scripts. Both men are completely healthy, but injury issues last season also mean both are available at very good valuations.
I’m avoiding Kamara this year. I don’t put a ton of weight in contract stuff, but he’s signed through 2026 and at his age, what is the point of playing through injury on a bad team?
Kendre Miller as a last pick in best ball tournaments has some appeal.
Browns: The QB play for the Browns could really hold things back. I do like taking Cedric Tillman later in best ball drafts as he has explosive upside, and Joe Flacco may provide 5-7 games of solid production, but am avoiding nearly everyone else.
At some point they’re likely to give Dillon Gabriel/Shedeur Sanders a shot and it could get ugly if or when that happens. One preseason game doesn’t quell my fears.
Sleepers?
Which rookie running backs will take over by midseason and win leagues for people?
Outside of the obvious names (Ashton Jeanty, Kaleb Johnson, Omarian Hampton etc), I’ll go with Commanders seventh-round pick, RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt.
I’m not necessarily calling for a full takeover, BUT, both Austin Ekeler and Brian Robinson Jr. have been experienced injuries and aren’t necessarily elite producers. Croskery-Merritt has size and speed and fell in the draft mainly because eligibility issues that led him playing just a single game last season in college.
If he can win the No. qjob out of camp, he’ll be one BRob injury away from a potentially major role.
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