Fantasy Football Mock Draft For TD-Only Leagues: Ja'Marr Chase Remains The 1.01

About a week ago, I wrote a piece on the RBs projected with 10+ TDs.

In that piece, I note the strong correlation between TDs and fantasy scoring, and I say this fateful sentence: "The 50-year-old dudes who still use TD-only scoring are basically right."

Now, here we are: The editors—reading that sentence, under the misapprehension that I've actually played in a TD-only league before—have asked me to write a fantasy football mock draft piece for TD-only scoring.

I could've said no. I thought about it—but I'm a team player. A company man. A paragon of 21st-century masculinity.

Or at least someone who's down to try almost anything once.

So here's a mock-draft piece for TD-only scoring, featuring the following Fantasy Life tools.

• Draft Champion Mock Simulator, presented by Gopuff
• 2025 Draft Rankings
• Season-Long Player Projections
   

To access all our tools, use the promo code "FREEDMAN" for a 20% discount on the FantasyLife+ package.

Strategy for 2025 TD-Only Leagues

Since I've never played in a TD-only league, I want to outline some of my thoughts and goals before I do the mock.

Here's what I'm thinking.

Prioritizing High-Scoring Teams

Since TDs are literally all that matter in this setting, I think I'll want to prioritize players on higher-scoring teams.

Right now, these are the teams with the 10 best odds to finish with the most points this season (Caesars).

• Bills: +600
• Ravens: +750
• Bengals: +850
• Lions: +900
• Chiefs: +1100
• Eagles: +1200
• Buccaneers: 1200
• Commanders: +1300
• 49ers: +1600
• Rams: +1600
   

This list makes sense to me.

I'm not going to target exclusively players on these 10 teams—but if at the end of my mock they don't have a healthy representation on my roster, I might rethink some of my draft picks.

Building With Stacks in Mind

In best ball and daily fantasy, stacking is a key strategy. I don't see why it shouldn't be here, especially when TDs account for 100% of scoring.

Example: Let's say if I draft WR Ja'Marr Chase (Bengals) in Round 1, I do so under the assumption that he's going to get a lot of TDs this year. And if that's the case, then it would probably make sense to pair him with QB Joe Burrow (as long as I like him at his price), because Burrow would presumably be the guy throwing Chase all the TDs.

I don't want to force a stack. I don't want to egregiously reach for a player just to complete a stack—but given the strong scoring correlation between QBs and pass catchers in this format, stacking seems like a tactic likely to yield positive expected value.

Selecting a QB Early (Maybe)

Using my TD projections for the season, here are the highest-projected point scorers at each position (4 points for PaTDs, 6 points for all other TDs).

• Josh Allen: 176.8
• Kyren Williams: 83.4
• Ja'Marr Chase: 73.2
• Mark Andrews: 50.4
   

There's just such a massive gap in scoring between QBs and all the other positions in this format, that I can't help but feel that—even though I tend to be a late-round QB practitioner in typical leagues—in this draft, I might be tempted to select a QB relatively early.

I'm not saying that I'll be the first team to select a QB.

But I might try to get one of the guys in the top tier (Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, Jalen Hurts).

Selecting a TE Early (Maybe)

The TE position I would expect to underwhelm in this format, as there are few TEs who regularly and abundantly find the endzone.

For instance, last year Andrews was the only TE with double-digit TDs (11), and there were 14 RBs and WRs with more scores.

After Andrews, George Kittle and Jonnu Smith were the next-best scorers with eight TDs.

And I think Smith is an instructive player to consider.

Last year, he had the best season of his career with 88-884-8 receiving on 111 targets.

But he wasn't drafted as a starter, and in the first 10 weeks of the season, he had just one TD.

That means he scored seven TDs in the final eight weeks—what a run!—but by the time anyone in a TD-only league would've had enough confidence in Smith to put him in a starting lineup … after he scored four TDs in four games (Weeks 11-14) … the season would've been almost over.

And that's the main problem with TEs in this format: At the position, TD scoring is so inconsistent that when a guy breaks out it's tough to know if what we're seeing is signal or noise, and by the time we can be reasonably certain that it's signal, it might be too late to capitalize on the knowledge. 

All of which is to say this: I don't want to slum it at TE. Each week, I don't want to be guessing and streaming and praying for TE production. 

I want to have someone I can trust to have a reasonable chance each week of scoring.

I'm not sure what that means in terms of strategy—but once I see TEs start to go off the board, I'll probably start loading them in my queue.

Deciding Between RBs & WRs

In looking at my projected points for RBs and WRs, 10 of the top 12 positions are occupied by RBs.

That's a high ratio, but it's not a surprise.

Last year, three players had 18+ TDs from scrimmage. They were all RBs. Eight players had 15+ TDs. Seven were RBs (plus WR Ja'Marr Chase).

Because of their sheer volume of opportunities and their relative consistency of goal-line work, RBs as a cohort have a ceiling that WRs typically cannot access.

Or phrased differently: It's usually easier to project RB TDs than WR TDs.

Here's what that means to me: It will probably be tempting to take RBs early … but most NFL teams have goal-line backs who will get consistent usage inside the five-yard line throughout the season—and some of those guys will be available later in the draft.

But not many NFL teams have strong No. 1 WRs who can reasonably score from all over the field or consistently earn targets in or near the end zone.

And after the goal-line backs are gone, I believe that the typical No. 2 WR on an NFL team has more TD upside than the typical No. 2 RB—because the No. 2 WR is still a starter who will be on the field for more snaps and might get targets at the goal line or in the end zone, whereas the No. 2 RB must rotate in at the position and is unlikely to get many opportunities inside the five.

To put some numbers to this: Here are the projected fantasy points for RBs and WRs at various points in my data set.

• No. 1: RB - 83.4 | WR - 73.2
• No. 6: RB - 71.4 | WR - 54.0
• No. 12: RB - 58.2 | WR - 48.0
• No. 18: RB - 49.2 | WR - 44.4
• No. 24: RB - 43.8 | WR - 42.6
• No. 36: RB - 32.4 | WR - 33.0
• No. 48: RB - 25.8 | WR - 28.8
• No. 60: RB - 18.6 | WR - 24.0
   

Here's what stands out to me: The difference in scoring between a mid-tier RB1 and WR1 is massive. Even the difference between a low-end RB1 and WR1 is big.

But by the time we get to the mid- and low-tier RB2s and WR2s, the gap has shrunken significantly, and with low-end RB3s and WR3s, the dynamic has flipped so that the WRs are now the superior scorers—and the gap widens all the more with RB4s and RB5s vs. WR4s and WR5s.

Phrased differently: In terms of expected production …

• The No. 6 RB is way more similar to the No. 1 RB than the No. 6 WR is to the No. 1 WR.
• The No. 60 WR is more like the No. 6 WR than the No. 60 RB is like the No. 6 RB.
   

Here's what I think this means in terms of action items.

• Since the top-end WR dropoff is so steep, WR Ja'Marr Chase is a worthy No. 1 pick.
• The RB sweet spot is in the top 18.
• The WR sweet spot is mid-tier WR2s to low-end WR3s.
   

I'm not sure how successfully I'll be able to leverage this information in my mock, but I'll try to keep it in mind.

Deciding Between Projected Opportunities & Projected TDs

We have our projected TDs on the site—and I trust the projections … but I imagine that it will be difficult for me sometimes to privilege our TD projections above our opportunity (carry and target) projections.

Example: Trey McBride is the No. 2 TE in consensus average draft position (per our Fantasy Life ADP Draft Board).

In our projections, I have him as the No. 2 TE in targets (127) and receptions (98) and No. 3 in receiving yards (958). But I have him projected as the No. 17 TE with only 3.5 TDs receiving.

That might seem outrageous, but he has just six TDs since 2023 despite getting 1,973 yards and 192 receptions on 253 targets and a carry with a position-best 94 Utilization Score last year (per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report).

So I think his TD projection is reasonable … but if McBride is available after the first few TEs have been selected, am I really going to let his modest TD total over the past two years prevent me from drafting one of the league's best TEs and a guy all but guaranteed to get 120+ targets?

In this format, TDs are all that matter—but volume is still king.

I trust our TD projections, but they're not everything. When making draft decisions, overall usage will still factor into my thought process.

TD-Only Mock Draft Specifics

Here are the settings for the mock draft I just did in our Draft Champion simulator.

• Scoring System: 4 pts for PaTDs, 6 pts for all other TDs
• Draft Type: Snake
• Number of Teams: 12
• Draft Position: 1st
• Roster: 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 FL
• ADP: ESPN
• Draft Strategy: Balanced
   

Here's the team I drafted.

• QB: Anthony Richardson
• RB: Kyren Williams, James Conner, Brian Robinson, Rhamondre Stevenson, Tyjae Spears, Isaac Guerendo, Jaydon Blue
• WR: Ja'Marr Chase, Mike Evans, Xavier Worthy, Ricky Pearsall, Travis Hunter
• TE: David Njoku

TD-Only Mock Draft Notes

• 1.01: WR Ja'Marr Chase (Bengals) - As noted earlier in the piece, he's my 1.01 in this format.
   
• 2.12: RB Kyren Williams (Rams) - He's my No. 1 RB with a projected TD total of 13.9. Love this pick.
   
• 3.01: WR Mike Evans (Buccaneers) - He's my No. 2 WR with 10.1 TDs projected. Love it.
   
• 4.12: RB James Conner (Cardinals) - He has 44 TDs in 57 games since joining the Cardinals four years ago. 
   
• 5.01: WR Xavier Worthy (Chiefs) - He had nine TDs last year as a rookie with three more TDs in the playoffs. He has an outside chance of developing into peak Tyreek Hill.
   
• 6.12: TE David Njoku (Browns) - He had four TDs in his six previous games with QB Joe Flacco. He's my No. 2 TE with 6.9 TDs projected.
   
• 7.01: RB Brian Robinson (Commanders) - He had eight TDs last year in 14 games and nine in 15 the year before that. The Commanders should score points, and he's the goal-line back. 
   
• 8.12: RB Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots) - He had eight TDs last year in 15 games. He's the goal-line back in a Patriots offense that should be better this year than it was last.
   
• 9.01: WR Ricky Pearsall (49ers) - I also selected Pearsall in my recent 14-team ESPN mock. He's the only starting WR currently healthy for the 49ers, and the first-rounder had 366 yards and three TDs on 28 targets and three carries in his four starts last year as a rookie.
   
• 10.12: WR Travis Hunter (Jaguars) - I'm not a Hunter truther … but at this price, I'll gladly take the Fred Biletnikoff Award-winning playmaker who was just selected with the No. 2 pick in April.
   
• 11.01: RB Tyjae Spears (Titans) - In Weeks 15-17 last year, with starter Tony Pollard hampered and then out, Spears had 261 yards and four TDs in three games. He and Pollard could share the workload evenly this year … and he might even steal the No. 1 job.
   
• 12.12: RB Isaac Guerendo (49ers) - If starter Christian McCaffrey were to miss time, the second-year Guerendo could crush. Last year, he put up 404 yards and three TDs in four games with a snap rate of at least 50%.
   
• 13.01: RB Jaydon Blue (Cowboys) - Blue is one of my favorite 2025 fantasy bench picks. He's a fifth-round rookie—but he's fast (4.38-second 40-yard dash), young (21 years old), and productive (1,098 yards, 14 TDs in 2024). He could eventually be the No. 1 RB for the Cowboys.
   
• 14.12: QB Anthony Richardson (Colts) - So much for drafting a QB early and stacking—but Richardson has a shot to start in Week 1, and in 15 NFL starts he has 10 rushing TDs.

Final Notes: Our draft rater gave me an overall grade of A, and it said that the expert I drafted most like was … Matthew Freedman. I accept that.