Fantasy Football QB Projections for 2025: Joe Burrow, Dak Prescott, and More Who Could Eclipse 35+ TDs
Jake Trowbridge breaks down eight QBs ahead of 2025 that have a higher likelihood of passing the 35-touchdown threshold than their media projections may imply.
When it comes to quarterbacks in fantasy football, we’re looking for big rushing upside and high touchdown potential. Seems simple, right? But projecting touchdowns is tricky, since it’s not a sticky stat year over year.
Ideally, though, we want our QBs to hit 35 passing touchdowns. Why is that the magic number? Because it’s nearly impossible to produce a bad—or even mediocre—fantasy season when they reach that threshold.
Over the last decade, quarterbacks have thrown for 35+ TDs … wait, this can’t be right … 35 times?? Huh. Well, isn’t that neat?
60% of the time, they finished as a top-five QB in fantasy (Is everyone picturing that Brian Fontana quote from Anchorman? Good.). And in a few instances, those who didn’t were only nudged outside the top five because more than five QBs hit the 35 TD mark that season. And like my weird uncle used to say, “you can’t squeeze six into a hole meant for five.”
Even crazier, only once did a QB with 35+ touchdowns fall outside the top-12 QBs in fantasy points per game (Damn you, Eli Manning, you outlying piece of datum!).
Our median fantasy football projections don’t have anyone eclipsing that magic number this season, because they’re practical. But the offseason is no time for practicality! So let’s aim for the ceiling and look at the guys with the best odds to join the 35 Club this year.
2025 Quarterback Projections for Fantasy Football: Who's Joining The 35-TD Club?
Joe Burrow
Has He Done It Before?
Yes. Burrow is a 2x member of the 35 Club and led the league with 43 passing touchdowns just last season.
What Are His Odds This Year?
90%. Cincinnati's defense might not be great this year. They might not even be good. But the law of averages says they can’t possibly be as bad—or as injury-depleted—as they were last season, which means Burrow shouldn’t have to throw the ball 652 times.
And yet, every time he’s played a full season, he’s racked up at least 520 pass attempts and 34 touchdowns. The gang’s all back together on offense, Burrow said he’s throwing in camp the best he’s done it in years, and I don’t think I need to write a third thing to convince you this dude is going to sling it.
Jared Goff
Has He Done It Before?
Yes. Though it’s strange, despite throwing for at least 4,500 yards—or extremely close to it—five times in his career, he crossed over the 35 TD mark for the very first time last season. That couldn’t possibly be due to his running backs constantly vulturing touchdowns, could it? COULD IT??
FUN FACT ALERT: It was Goff handing the ball off to both Todd Gurley and Jamaal Williams when they led the league with 17 rushing touchdowns on two separate occasions. What a selfless guy!
What Are His Odds This Year?
80%. The Ben Johnson era is over in Detroit, but don’t expect this team to start playing scared. The Lions’ new Offensive Coordinator loves taking shots downfield and has already promised to make the long ball a staple of the offense. That sound you hear is the whistle from the Jameson Williams hype train, by the way. And it’s also the wheels going firmly up for Goff.
Lamar Jackson
Has He Done It Before?
Yes. Jackson joined the 35 Club for the first time last season, making 41 passing touchdowns look downright effortless at times.
What Are His Odds This Year?
75%. The seemingly immortal Derrick Henry is now 31 years old, and I’m not saying he can’t run the ball another 325 times and lead the league in rushing touchdowns once again … but just, I dunno … save some for the rest of the team?
But seriously, Jackson has a solid crew of pass catchers at his disposal, with Mark Andrews hopefully looking more like his 2023 self with another offseason to recover from injuries. Lamar’s absurdly high 8.6% touchdown rate (the league average was 4.5%) has to drop somewhat, but King Henry’s dominance, combined with his quarterback’s improvisational excellence, keeps him a great bet to toss 35-plus into the end zone once again.
Baker Mayfield
Has He Done It Before?
Yes. Like Jackson, Baker Mayfield topped 35 TDs for the first time last season and—also like Jackson—he went above and beyond with 41 total. So … I guess … just pencil Mayfield in for whatever Lamar does this season?
What Are His Odds This Year?
60%. Mayfield just lost Liam Coen as his Offensive Coordinator, who we can assume had a significant role in guiding the veteran QB to the best statistical season of his career. But all is not lost. Let’s not forget that Mike Evans and Chris Godwin both missed time with injuries, and Tampa Bay added some new hotness in the first round of the draft with Emeka Egbuka.
Plus, the new OC’s name is Josh Grizzard! That’s like a 9/10 on the Rad Name Scale! And also, he was the Bucs’ Passing Game Coordinator last year, so we’ve got some consistency to rely on.
Patrick Mahomes
Has He Done It Before?
C’mon. You knew the answer was yes before you even saw his name on this list. In fact, he’s hit the 35 mark FOUR TIMES in his career (once more and he gets to host an episode of Saturday Night Live).
What Are His Odds This Year?
55%.That number probably seems low considering what I JUST SAID about Mahomes’ history … but he hasn’t topped 27 touchdowns in either of the last two years. And the hard truth is that, although the Chiefs offense used to be more explosive than a post-Taco Bell “thinking session,” they’ve been more like a fart in the wind. Metaphorically speaking.
Maybe that changes this year. But Travis Kelce is closer than ever to wearing New Balance shoes with his gameday attire, Rashee Rice is likely to be suspended for a chunk of the season, and this more timid version of the offense is coming off back-to-back AFC Championships (so it’s working). Despite all that, it’d be foolish not to think Mahomes could pull it off, circumstances be damned.
Josh Allen
Has He Done It Before?
Yes. While racking up 100+ rush attempts the last six years straight, Allen has also hit 35 passing TDs thrice.
What Are His Odds This Year?
55%. Allen and Mahomes are sitting cozy at the same odds, but not quite for the same reasons. The Bills offense hasn’t lost any luster over the last couple of years, but they did lose a true WR1 when Stefon Diggs left town. That hasn’t slowed Allen down for fantasy one bit; he’s just recalibrated to go Beast Mode on defenses with his legs.
He’s got 27 rushing touchdowns to his name in the last two seasons, and now that he has a taste for blood—and no significant upgrades to the receiving unit—I’m not so sure Allen doesn’t put up 20 TDs on the ground this time out. But also, the dude can still whip it, and if he somehow threw 35 TDs to 35 different players, I guess I wouldn’t be all that shocked.
Jordan Love
Has He Done It Before?
No. But a Packers fan can dream. In Love’s first season as a starter, he threw for 32 TDs and more than 4,100 yards. Had he not gotten injured and missed a couple of weeks, he might’ve put up similar numbers last year (even despite Josh Jacobs running a full marathon every game).
What Are His Odds This Year? 50%.
This is pretty much a toss-up. Because yes, Green Bay threw the ball less than half the time, but how much of that was the injuries? And this is still the same receiving corps from 2023 that nearly got Love to the threshold, PLUS they caved to fan pressure and drafted Matthew Golden in the first round.
Dak Prescott
Has He Done It Before?
Yes. A couple of times. And he probably would’ve done it more if he didn’t miss so much time with injuries.
What Are His Odds This Year?
49.5%. If you could guarantee me 17 full games from Prescott right here and now, I’d bump that number up by at least a 10-spot. But you can’t because you’re not a wizard, Harry!
But heck, even if he misses a few games, the additions of George Pickens and new HC Brian Schottenheimer—who let Russ cook 40 TDs back in 2020—should put him in range.
