Is The Justin Jefferson Injury Impacting Fantasy Football Rankings Update?
Fantasy

Is The Justin Jefferson Injury Impacting Fantasy Football Rankings Update?

Ian Hartitz examines the latest NFL news coming out of training camps and then sees how it will translate to fantasy football.

Training camp is LIVE. Competitive football is almost here. It's time to get excited!

Of course, for every meaningful depth chart or usage nugget, we have news and highlights that feature things like:

  • Running backs bouncing off three defenders in drills where defenders aren't allowed to tackle for "50-yard TDs"
  • Wide receivers and running backs catching "long TDs" … with a coach in "coverage"

Basically: Perfectly normal practice moments that are only notable because we crave all things football. And we should! It's the best sport ever created. But seriously: The 2025 NFL Draft did better numbers than the 2024 NBA Finals.

So yeah, feel free to enjoy cool Marvin Harrison Jr. catches and electric Rashid Shaheed moments. Football is fun! Just realize that for fantasy football ranking purposes, we need to continue keeping our eye on the prize (volume) while not putting too much stock in shiny new highlights and glitzy camp reports.

And with that: Four hot topic situations and my corresponding rankings updates from recent training camp news and injuries.

As always:It's a great day to be great.

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NFL News Impacting Fantasy Football Rankings

Texans RB Joe Mixon (foot) out for an extended period of time

NFL Network's Ian Rapoport described the foot injury as "frustrating." Does that inspire confidence in you?

Look, the Texans will reportedly evaluate Mixon closer to the season to determine his availability. Maybe things will be fine and he's good to go for Week 1. Maybe this is the year that I finally win Best Ball Mania and can buy a membership to that absurd private golf course down the street that I'm nowhere near good enough to play at, but that's besides the point.

The point here is that the Texans' 29-year-old workhorse RB and reigning fantasy RB9 in PPR points per game is actively dealing with another lower-body injury. As Eleanor Roosevelt once said (at least I think it was her): Don't draft injuries, they will find you.

Of course, pretty much every player becomes a fantasy value at some point, but man, I wasn't making a habit of drafting Mixon in the first place due to: 

  1. The reality that he was indeed rocking a walking boot during the summer.
  2. The Texans' decision to add fourth-rounder Woody Marks and free agent Nick Chubb, who no, aren't real competition to the starting job, but also certainly weren't being treated anywhere near as seriously as fellow Day 3 rooks like Bhayshul Tuten, Cam Skattebo, and Jarquez Hunter, as well as J.K. Dobbins.
  3. Houston's redesigned, but terrible offensive line entering the season as PFF and Brandon Thorn's 32nd-ranked offensive line.
  4. The league's reigning 19th-ranked scoring offense not exactly being implied by Vegas to reach new heights (shoutout Kelce bros).

Sure, new OC Nick Caley could be the next big thing and find a way to elevate the to 2023 levels when C.J. Stroud passed for 4,108 yards and 23 TDs, but this sure doesn't seem like the sort of can't-miss situation that drafters should be targeting with anything resembling an early-round pick.

Bottom line: I moved Mixon down to the bottom of the starting RB ranks alongside guys like Tony Pollard and Aaron Jones. Expected lead early-down back Chubb deserves RB4 treatment alongside the handcuffs of the world, but I still find myself a bit more willing to go with guys like Javonte Williams, Cam Skattebo, and even Jaylen Wright in that range. The same problems that apply to Mixon also go to Chubb, who is even less likely to earn any level of pass-down work away from Marks.

The rookie should probably be treated as the best option considering his status as the cheapest in this muddled situation—the explosive USC product's Rookie Super Model score isn't too far off from far more popular guys like Skattebo and Tuten in the first place. Also keep in mind Dameon Pierce isn't a complete non-factor, although the former tackle-breaking phenom is currently on the PUP list himself at the moment.

Browns RB Quinshon Judkins arrested and charged

The second-round pick was arrested and charged with misdemeanor domestic battery on July 12. The Browns are said to be in the information-gathering stage with Judkins regarding … signing him in the first place. In fact, owner Jimmy Haslam hasn't spoken to Judkins this month, and only said he's cautiously optimistic that the team's second-round pick will even get signed!

That's the wild part here: Typically in the face of legal issues teams can usually just defer to the NFL, which defers to the legal system, which takes its sweet ole time making a decision. Now, my 5th grade history teacher informed me of The Right to a Speedy Trial (shoutout Mrs. Snoak and the Sixth Amendment), but the whole "he's not even signed" part of the equation sure seems like an issue in projecting anything resembling a short-term return for an organization that shouldn't be looking to embrace more controversy when it comes to taking on … you know.

Consider: If you had to name the most likely player going inside the top 10 rounds of a fantasy draft who could possibly not play a single snap this season … wouldn't Judkins be the pick?

This is a player not only with high suspension risk but also NOT SIGNED TO A FOOTBALL TEAM AT THE MOMENT. This reality makes it awfully difficult to assume that a six-ish-game suspension is the "only" worst possible outcome on the table.

And, oh yeah: This has already been a below-average run-blocking offensive line in recent years with a coach who hasn't exactly engineered workhorse RBs inside Vegas' 32nd-ranked offense in implied points. We hope Joe Flacco starts at QB. That's pretty f*cking sad when considering the upside scenarios across top-100 picks in fantasy land.

Bottom line: While we should always be open to learning and absorbing new information on the matter, I'm currently happy to let someone else take Judkins in fantasy drafts of all shapes and sizes. This results in solid bumps for Ford and Sampson, but the same rather brutal offensive environment concerns apply here, and it's possible Pierre Strong Jr. or a free agent party to be named later joins a backfield that worst comes to worst could be losing the 2025 NFL Draft's 36th overall pick. Similar to Chubb, I'm cool with moving the projected top two backs into the back of the RB4-RB5 mix (which makes them great values if current ADP holds), it's just probably not wise to expect fireworks from anyone involved in this offense.

Vikings WR Justin Jefferson hurt his hamstring

 What we know:

  • Head coach Kevin O'Connell stated, "The best thing is, we avoided anything serious. I see no concerns in regards to the opener (against Chicago). I have no worry at all that we'll be able to get Justin ready to go for the regular season."
  • Potential coachspeak? Sure, but shoutout to The Coachspeak Index for quantifying this sort of stuff—he gives KOC a 90% reliability rating on injury coachspeak.
  • Dr. Jeff Mueller believes this information results in a return-to-play timeline of 1-2 weeks with very low reinjury risk.

Don't assume every preseason injury will result in a 2024 Christian McCaffrey-esque disaster. Remember that Jahmyr Gibbs hamstring issue last August? Not to suggest applying Gibbs' return to whatever happens to JJettas is overly relevant; it's just in our psychology to remember the bad outlier situations more than the ones that result in pretty much nothing. 

Bottom line: I'm holding firm with Jefferson as my WR3 and sixth-ranked player overall—anyone other than Ja'Marr Chase, CeeDee Lamb, Bijan Robinson, Saquon Barkley, and Gibbs himself has at least one yellow-ish flag that sure seems close to equivalent to this problem anyway.

Matthew Stafford's back hurts

Yes, I don't love that a 37-year-old pocket passer is dealing with a back issue in July. Also yes, Sean McVay joins his former disciple KOC as reliable coaches when it comes to injury talk—and the Rams' head ball coach is on the record saying he "Absolutely" expects his QB to be ready for the start of the season.

Stafford has certainly had his fair share of nicks and bruises over the years. In fact, he suffered a back injury in Week 5 last season … and missed *zero* snaps the rest of the way. Stafford's injury history is actually somewhat comical if you allow yourself to find humor in another man's pain due to the reality that he's accumulated $364 million dollars during his professional career.

Father Time is a real son of a bitch, but Stafford has also played 15+ games in all but three of his 17 career seasons. The Rams have $40 million guaranteed reasons to err on the side of caution in late July.  That said: I do feel some hesitation on the clock in investing quite as freely in the offense's various high-priced playmakers given the reality that Stafford's chance of missing games is probably on the higher side relative to other QBs.

Bottom line: Admittedly I'm just a bit less confident in my Davante Adams WR12 call when thinking about the reality of the ex-Packers/Raider/Jet teaming back up with former BFF Jimmy Garoppolo, and Puka Nacua's weekly projection would certainly at least take a small ding without old yeller under center.

Even then, I'm holding pat with previous rankings for all parties involved due to the current information at hand that involves Stafford being on pace to suit up in Week 1.

Players Mentioned in this Article

  1. Justin Jefferson
    JustinJefferson
    WRMINMIN
    PPG
    7.51
  2. Matthew Stafford
    MatthewStafford
    QBLARLAR
    PPG
    13.10
    Proj
    16.48
  3. Quinshon Judkins
    QuinshonJudkinsIR
    RBCLECLE
    PPG
    7.91
  4. Joe Mixon
    JoeMixonIR
    RBHOUHOU