Updated RB Handcuff Tiers, a Zay Jones Big Game Prediction, and More

We are over halfway through the fantasy season. Immeasurable amounts of blood, sweat, and tears have been shed on fantasy rosters already–and we're not done yet, people!

I don't care if you're 9-0 or 0-9 (okay, the latter would really suck, and I'm sorry if that's the case), but yeah: Our sole focus is coming away with a W in Week 10. Cool? Cool.

This brings us to today's goal: 10 mostly fantasy-relevant things to know ahead of Week 10 that ideally will help make you both a better fantasy manager and overall person. This week's topics:

1. RB Handcuff Tiers: Blake Corum headlines under-rostered tier-one cuffs
2. Which RBs are most deserving of more touches?
3. What have been the NFL's most efficient QB-receiver connections?
4. What man-coverage splits can we take advantage of for Week 10?
5. Week 9 RB Report: Will RJ Harvey's role ever grow?
6. What offenses are the best at getting into the Red Zone and scoring TDs when they do?
7. The DST corner: Stash those Buccaneers!
8. Two key Week 10 ranking questions and answers
9. One cool fact from every game that I find interesting for one reason or another
10. Three Bold Calls for Week 10

As always: It's a great day to be great.

1. RB Handcuff Tiers: Blake Corum headlines under-rostered tier-one cuffs

Handcuff running backs: Players who are *one* injury away from sky-rocketing up the fantasy ranks and landing on the cover of waiver wire articles across the injury.

Sure, a wild Puka Nacua or Jauan Jennings appears every once in a while, but no position produces more randomly fantasy-relevant options than RB. This is largely thanks to the reality that you don't necessarily have to be an elite talent at RB in order to rack up volume the same way you do as a receiver.

Presenting: My fantasy football handcuff tiers ahead of Week 10. Note that the myriad of factors at hand and loose definition of a handcuff makes this a bit more of an art than science. I also didn't count David Montgomery, Jordan Mason or Zach Charbonnet as handcuffs since they're all rostered in 80%+ leagues and are more-so 1.B options than actual backups. RBs are ordered in the tiers by their Wednesday rostership percentage on Yahoo.

Tier 1: The top seven handcuffs in fantasy football

Immediate RB1-level fantasy treatment is expected should the starter miss time…

Panthers RB Chuba Hubbard (85%): We've seen the Panthers be willing to give Rico Dowdle 25-plus touch workloads as their clear lead back–something that would also be expected for Chuba, who was the RB13 in PPR points per game all the way back in … 2024.

Broncos RB RJ Harvey (83%): The NFL's most efficient RB in PPR points per touch has the sort of explosive pass-catching skill-set to go wild with a true full-time role.

Buccaneers RB Rachaad White (80%): Has posted 80%, 77%, 90%, and 55% snap shares with Bucky Irving sidelined. The latter low count still consisted of 15 touches and probably was only as low as it was due to White getting banged up early and the Bucs coasting to a comfortable 20-point win.

Bears RB Kyle Monangai (76%): The production vs. the Bengals was obviously awesome, but the every-down role that produced 31 combined carries and targets is the real reason for tier one handcuff treatment even once D'Andre Swift is back from injury.

Falcons RB Tyler Allgeier (34%): Possesses the sort of three-down skill-set to work as "75% Bijan Robinson" should the Falcons' stud starter ever be forced out of action.

49ers RB Brian Robinson (24%): Wouldn't expect CMC-level goodness of course, but give B-Rob credit for averaging a career-high 4.8 yards per carry with his limited opportunities–Elijah Mitchell/Jordan Mason upside RB2 numbers would be expected should he ever get a starting chance.

Rams RB Blake Corum (10%): Nobody has been more willing to leave one RB on the field than Sean McVay over the years. Maybe Jarquez Hunter keeps Corum from assuming a 90%+ snap share, but 20-plus carries and targets per week would immediately be expected.

Tier 2: Next six priority pure handcuffs

Maybe we wouldn't rank these guys as immediate top-10 options with an injury, but they'd still be expected to handle something close to a bell-cow workload and would be suggested starters in fantasy lineups of most shapes and sizes…

• Patriots RB TreVeyon Henderson (87%): Assumed a dominant 75% snap share without Rhamondre Stevenson, although Terrell Jennings is still siphoning away plenty of early-down/goal line work.
• Chiefs RB Kareem Hunt (66%): Clear early-down and goal-line option with Isiah Pacheco sidelined, but expecting 15-plus touches on a weekly basis with the other involved pass-down backs in the league's most pass-heavy offense is where it gets tough to get too excited.
• Titans RB Tyjae Spears (41%): Obvious limitations in terms of scoring upside, but explosive pass-catching skill-set helped Spears work as the overall PPR RB5 during the fantasy playoffs last year in another offensive environment that wasn't exactly great.
• Steelers RB Kenneth Gainwell (34%): 19-99-2 rushing and 6-35-0 receiving lines on a 77% snap rate in his only game without Jaylen Warren this season. I don't have a great argument for anyone who wants him in the first tier; I guess I'm still just in shock/minor denial that the Steelers truly don't plan on ever giving Kaleb Johnson any sort of work.
• Jaguars RB Bhayshul Tuten (32%): Could easily break into the top tier with the opportunity, although there's potential for the workload to be smaller than fantasy truthers want due to the presence of pass-down specialist LeQuint Allen.
• Packers RB Emanuel Wilson (8%): Clear next-man-up behind Josh Jacobs, who has already been battling a calf injury in recent weeks. There'd still be some Chris Brooks, and maybe MarShawn Lloyd gets healthy one of these days (probably not), but yeah: Wilson is the least-rostered clear-cut great handcuff in fantasy at the moment.

Tier 3: Good, not great, handcuff options

Similar to Tier 2: These guys would all be suggested starters in the heavy majority of fantasy lineups if thrust into action, although there's at least one fairly bright red flag to worry about with this crew…

• Eagles RB Tank Bigsby (28%): Next-man-up to assume Saquon Barkley's rushing work, but Will Shipley lingers to threaten pass-down work, and remember: There's not exactly goal-line scoring upside in Philly.
• Giants RB Devin Singletary (17%): Has handled three-down workloads in the past, but Brian Daboll's willingness to bench him for day-three rookies doesn't add a lot of credence/faith to the idea that a big-time handcuff role is guaranteed.
• Browns RB Dylan Sampson (17%): Has flashed as a pass-catcher, but not so much as a rusher, and Jerome Ford would be unlikely to completely exit the picture.
• Jets RB Isaiah Davis (12%): Has made the most out of his opportunities, but there's not much scoring upside (the Jets) or target volume (scrambling QBs) to speak of inside a backfield that could get Braelon Allen back at some point.
• Dolphins RB Ollie Gordon (11%): Battling injuries at the moment; he'd become the lead early down back without De'Von Achane, although I could see this being more of a 60/40 situation with Jaylen Wright than a pure takeover.
• Bills RB Ray Davis (8%) and Ty Johnson (1%): The lack of usage for Davis and relative ascension of Johnson has me wary that last season's one-game sample of goodness (23 of 27 backfield opportunities) is still on the table. I still prefer Davis, but wouldn't exactly pencil in 20-plus touches.
• Raiders RB Raheem Mostert (1%): Would suffer from the same o-line problems as Ashton Jeanty, but hey, 15-plus weekly touches would seemingly be on the table.

Tier 4: Muddled situations

Multiple RBs would likely be in play should the starter get injured and it's unlikely any would immediately be no-doubt top-24 fantasy options…

• Cardinals RB Emari Demercado (16%): This backfield pecking order seemingly changes by the quarter.
• Ravens RB Justice Hill (9%) and Keaton Mitchell (1%): Hell, Rasheen Ali could also be involved. I'd probably lean towards Mitchell, but I doubt he'd walk into a weekly 15-20 touch role.
• Cowboys RB Jaydon Blue (7%) and Malik Davis (0%): The Cowboys don't trust Blue; the part-time lead role could legit go to Phil Mafah (shoulder) if he's healthy.
• Chargers RB Hassan Haskins (4%) and Jaret Patterson (0%): Omarion Hampton should be back sooner rather than later. Kimani Vidal would then return to tier two. Still, this banged-up offensive line and pass-first offense doesn't help anyone involved.
• Commanders RB Chris Rodriguez (3%) and Jeremy McNichols (3%): Deebo Samuel could also get more involved. Washington has made it clear they don't plan on featuring any single RB to a massive extent.
• Saints RB Devin Neal (2%): Could easily see Taysom Hill simply becoming the team's lead ball carrier.
• Colts RB DJ Giddens (1%) and Ameer Abdullah (0%): Similar to Buffalo where I *think* Giddens would be the handcuff, but Abdullah plays more on a weekly basis. I could also be underestimating Tyler Goodson's potential involvement.
• Bengals RB Tahj Brooks (0%): Could argue he should be in Tier 3 but I'm not sure how long Samaje Perine (ankle) is actually going to be out.
• Texans RB Dameon Pierce (0%) and Dare Ogunbowale (0%): The handcuffs for Nick Chubb and Woody Marks, respectively, leaving this as a likely 2-3 RB committee inside an overall shitty offensive environment regardless of which co-starter potentially goes down.

2. Which RBs are most deserving of more touches?

I get annoyed about people wanting "Brashard Smith" to get more carries when he's averaging … 2.9 yards per carry. Or the entire fantasy community dying for Bhayshul Tuten to become a thing … when Travis Etienne has largely been playing great football all season long.

Hey, there's nothing wrong with rooting for your fantasy team or favorite offseason sleeper, but there's a difference between wanting something to happen for entirely personal reasons and active malpractice from NFL decision-makers. Cool? Cool.

That brings us to this topic: What RBs have been incredibly efficient on a per-touch basis and/or are vastly out-performing their team's starter, but simply haven't managed to get anything close to a consistently solid workload?

Three players who fit the bill:

Broncos RB RJ Harvey: There's nothing wrong with JK Dobbins; this is more so just a testament to the second-round rookie. Overall, Harvey is averaging 5.4 yards per touch (8th among 47 qualified RBs) and (even more impressively for our purposes) 1.39 PPR points per touch (1st!). The receiving flashes have been particularly tantalizing–Harvey remains one of the game's higher upside handcuffs, and it'd be a lot cooler if head coach Sean Payton gave the rookie a real chance to at least unseat Tyler Badie as the team's two-minute back.

Titans RB Tyjae Spears: Spears has managed to rather drastically out-perform Tony Pollard in yards per carry (5.1 vs. 4) and yards per target (6.9 vs. 6) through nine weeks of action. The eye test has been even more startling; Pollard has not really come close to resembling the same breathtaking playmaker that was regularly on display over the years in Dallas. Friendly reminder that Spears worked as THE PPR RB5 during the fantasy playoffs last season–that's the sort of upside on hand here should a bigger role emerge down the stretch.

Jets RB Isaiah Davis: We're really stretching the small-sample size thing here, and nobody is saying anything negative about Breece Hall, but: Davis has built on his rookie year success by (again) working as one of the league's more efficient rushers and receivers at the position.

3. What have been the NFL's most efficient QB-receiver connections?

Passer rating might not perfectly sum up a QB's performance, but that doesn't mean it's completely useless–particularly when looking at an offense's passing efficiency as a whole. In fact, one number that combines completion percentage, yards per attempt, TDs per attempt, and INTs per attempt is pretty cool if you ask me!

With this in mind: I wanted to get an idea of which teams have produced the league's most-efficient pass-catching duos–and the below chart shows off just that! I used arbitrary qualifiers of 20 receptions and 25 targets because otherwise this would simply become Drake Maye propaganda (not that there's anything wrong with that).

Some love for the top WRs:

• We hyped up Kayshon Boutte a bit last week in this very article due to his position-high mark in TDs per target (16.7%!). The man has been making plays all season long–here's to hoping last week's hamstring injury doesn't keep him sidelined for long.
• Rashee Rice has ripped off 7-42-2, 9-93-1, and 4-80-0 receiving lines this season thanks to continued high-end chemistry with Patrick Mahomes *and* constant electricity with the football in his hands. He's averaged 22 PPR points per game in these contests–good for WR2 status over the last two seasons only behind that Ja'Marr Chase guy.
• Kudos to George Pickens for not getting his first unsportsmanlike conduct penalty until Week 9 this season–I would have taken the under on 1.5 weeks! And it was an objectively stupid call. But hey, whatever, the ex-Steeler is averaging a career-high 84.9 yards per game (4th among WRs!) and continues to profile as someone poised to make a lot of money this offseason regardless of whether it's in Dallas or somewhere else.

As for the TEs: It really is a shame that the Bills insist on keeping Dalton Kincaid (58% route rate on the season) in a part-time role considering just how efficient the third-year TE has been with his opportunities all season long.

And finally at RB: It's been refreshing to see Kyren Williams make so much out of his opportunities as a receiver after largely struggling to do so during his first three seasons in the league. Pass-down ability was considered a strength of the former golden domer coming into the league, but that simply wasn't the case during the 2022-2024 seasons. He's averaging career-best marks nearly across the board in terms of per-game receiving numbers, something that has really helped his fantasy cause with Davante Adams hogging all the goal line TDs this season.

4. What man-coverage splits can we take advantage of for Week 10?

Every team in the NFL runs more zone than man, but some obviously still separate themselves. With this in mind: I wanted to look at extreme differences in targets per route run (TPRR) vs. man/zone coverage and match this with the fairly rare matchups featuring man-heavy defenses. Note that generally WRs will have higher TPRR rates against man coverage, while RBs and TEs get more looks against zone coverage.

Players who have consistently earned far more targets against man than zone and are facing a defense that has run man coverage on 35% or more of their snaps this season:

Raiders TE Brock Bowers (34% TPRR vs. man, 23% vs. zone) vs. Broncos: I know I literally just said TEs generally get more looks against zone, but as we all know: Bowers isn't your every day TE. Don't confuse a date in Mile High with a smash spot, but there should at least be plenty of opportunities on the table–we did see Bowers earn a whopping 22 targets in two games against this squad last season after all.

Chargers WR Ladd McConkey (25% TPRR vs. man, 16% vs. zone) and Keenan Allen (30%, 27%) vs. Steelers: The Steelers have allowed more PPR points per game to opposing WRs than anyone this season. Even the Cowboys! So these splits aren't the be-all, end-all; it's a great matchup any way you cut it. Still, it'd make sense if we see a repeat of last week's Colts performance here — meaning McConkey, Allen and Quentin Johnston see more opportunities than the involved TE. Here's to hoping this plus spot gets Allen going again–he's had some HUGE performances against Mike Tomlin and company over the years:

• Week 5, 2015: 6 receptions-57 yards-0 TD (10 targets)
• Week 13, 2018: 14-148-1 (19)
• Week 6, 2019: 2-33-0 (6)
• Week 11, 2021: 9-112-0 (13)

Bears WR Rome Odunze (26% TPRR vs. man, 19% vs. zone) vs. Giants: It's been a ROUGH last four weeks for Odunze following his blistering start to the season. Last week's goose-egg against the Bengals was bad enough to make his Dad mad online. That said: Odunze has eaten vs. man coverage all season long, and only the Lions and Broncos have utilized more of it through nine weeks. Note that Odunze hung big-time performances on the Ravens (7-114-0) and Lions (7-128-2) this season AKA two of the league's top-six most man-heavy defenses. I LOVE the chances of Odunze finding his groove in this potential eruption spot.

Commanders WR Jaylin Lane (23% TPRR vs. man, 12% vs. zone) vs. Lions: This is certainly a deeper pull than the other ones, but hey, Lane has indeed seen his opportunities ramp up against man coverage, and a near full-time role should continue to be on the table with Terry McLaurin (quad) unlikely to suit up this week. Lane leads the Commanders in yards per route run (2.64) vs. man and has the sort of provocative one-hitter-quitter big-play ability to make the most out of limited overall targets. It'd be a lot cooler if Jayden Daniels was under center instead of Marcus Mariota, although the veteran has sported better marks in plenty of passing efficiency measures (completion rate, yards per attempt, QBR) this season.

5. Week 9 RB Report: Will RJ Harvey's role ever grow?

Workhorse alert: 13 teams featured one single RB on at least 70% of their offense's snaps in Week 9: Bijan Robinson (96%), Chase Brown (95%), De'Von Achane (92%), Ashton Jeanty (90%), Javonte Williams (88%), Christian McCaffrey (86%), Kareem Hunt (81%), Jonathan Taylor (78%), TreVeyon Henderson (75%), James Cook (75%), Rico Dowdle (74%), Kyle Monangai (74%), and Kimani Vidal (72%). All non-bye participants should be auto starts in pretty much fantasy lineups of all shapes and sizes with the only two real exceptions being Henderson (not exactly dominating touches and tough matchup vs. pass-funnel Bucs) and Vidal (banged-up offensive line and lost some of the backfield rush share last week). Even then, I typically let a workhorse RB's volume win as the tiebreaker over WR3 types in close start/sit decisions.

Still a bell-cow, wouldn't sweat it: RBs who didn't quite rack up a near every-down role in terms of snaps, but continued to dominate their backfield's overall touches and should be continued to be relied on in fantasy lineups of all shapes and sizes include: Josh Jacobs (RB4 in PPR points per game this season), Jahmyr Gibbs (RB7), Saquon Barkley (RB10), Kyren Williams (RB13), Jaylen Warren (RB17), Breece Hall (RB18), Quinshon Judkins (RB19), Travis Etienne (RB20, and man was he unlucky last week), and Derrick Henry (RB21, but winter is coming).

Those damn injury gods: Unfortunately, there are a handful of injuries worth monitoring among backs who we would otherwise feel great about:

• Saquon Barkley (groin): Tentatively expected to suit up based on general good feelings around the injury.
• Quinshon Judkins (shoulder): Was considered day to day before the Browns' Week 9 bye so should be good for this week
• Aaron Jones (shoulder): Word out of Minnesota seems to be this isn't too serious, but we'll know more when the practice reports come out.
• Bucky Irving (shoulder/foot): Seemingly still not ready to go following the bye; it'll continue to be the Rachaad White show if Bucky remains sidelined.
• Rhamondre Stevenson (toe): Didn't practice all last week.
• D'Andre Swift (groin): Didn't practice all last week but was limited on Wednesday.
• Trey Benson (knee): Eligible to return from injured reserve this week.

Muddled committees are so lame: And the Cardinals, Texans, Titans, Commanders, Seahawks, and Giants insist on deploying just that. None of the involved backs crack my top 24 and shouldn't be relied on with any sort of high-end confidence as long as these gross rotations persist. The result of the Giants is particularly annoying considering Tyrone Tracy largely dominated usage in Week 8 as well as in 2024. He's not a must-start option for the time being.

TD dependent early-down grinders: Feature David Montgomery and JK Dobbins, who simply don't have a high enough touch floor to be overly relied on during any given week. That said: Both the Lions (implied for 29 points, 2nd) and Broncos (25.8, 7th) are expected to be among the week's highest-scoring offenses, so this profiles as the sort of week where both backs could make the most out of their 15-ish touches.

Things aren't going so great down by the Bayou: It's been a rough 2025 for Alvin Kamara, who is averaging a career-low 3.6 yards per carry and 5.4 yards per reception this season. The result is just 9.2 PPR points per game (RB36). Quite a far cry from last year's RB5 finish. Hopefully Tyler Shough gets the offense grooving and better days are ahead; just realize Kamara isn't someone who should be in starting fantasy lineups if you can help it.

The Joker: RJ Harvey still isn't getting enough usage to shoot up the fantasy ranks, but the rookie has emerged as a dangerous pass-catcher inside this ever-well-schemed Sean Payton attack. There's serious high-end handcuff upside here and we shouldn't discount the possibility for more work to emerge down the stretch.

6. What offenses are the best at getting into the Red Zone and scoring TDs when they do?

The below chart answers just that!

The Eagles and Commanders are the obvious outliers here. It's tough to see the latter squad's down-to-down efficiency improving too much without the services of Jayden Daniels (elbow), but maybe the bye week did Jalen Hurts and company some good.

After all: This has pretty easily been the worst version of the Eagles in terms of overall offensive success rate since Hurts took over as the starter in 2021.

• 2021: 49.4% success rate (6th)
• 2022: 50.6% (3rd)
• 2023: 49.6% (3rd)
• 2024: 46.7% (14th)
• 2025: 44.8% (24th)

Here's to hoping Saquon Barkley and AJ Brown are healthy coming out of the team's bye, otherwise it might be on DeVonta Smith to (continue) picking up the slack. Shoutout to Smith for playing the best football of his career through nine weeks: He's ESPN's and PFF's fifth- and 10th-highest graded WR overall.

7. The DST corner: Stash those Buccaneers!

The biggest takeaway from last week was pretty awesome so I'll repeat it:

• Set yourself a reminder for November 18 to scoop up the Buccaneers DST. They've already been awesome this season (tied for DST2) and figure to have been dropped quite a bit during their Week 9 bye with the Patriots, Bills, and Rams on tap. In fact, their ESPN rostership percentage rests at just 29%! But man: From Weeks 13-17 Tampa Bay faces the Cardinals, Saints, Falcons, Panthers, and Dolphins. There isn't a better combination down the stretch of a good real life defense on a quality contender with a smashable schedule.

Of course, we got some work to do in the meantime, so I'd recommend the following defenses for those getting down and dirty in the streamer streets. The following groups were all available in at least 50% of ESPN leagues as of Tuesday:

• Ravens (42% rostered on ESPN) vs. Vikings
• Bills (37% rostered on ESPN) vs. Dolphins
• Browns DST (30% rostered on ESPN) vs. Jets

The Panthers (4%) and Saints (2%) would be the next best bets thanks to matchups against … each other! Still, I have much less confidence in their real-life ability. If worse comes to worse, give me the Panthers, but man, neither have been anything to write home about this season when it comes to wrecking havoc out there.

Defenses with a sub-30% havoc rate:

• Dolphins (29.5%)
• Titans (29.3%)
• Saints (28.7%)
• Jets (27.4%)
• Ravens (27.3%)
• Panthers (27%)
• Bengals (26.5%)

8. Two key Week 10 ranking questions and answers

I'll be publishing an early rankings column midday Monday throughout the season that gives my top-12 QB/TE and top-24 RB//WR alongside some honorable mention picks while also answering a handful of questions regarding some of the week's biggest storylines. You can read the full Week 10 piece here, but I also wanted to highlight the three biggest questions and answers I had.

*Law and Order Music*

These are their stories.

Did JJ McCarthy actually ball out in Week 9?

Kind of! Sure, nobody will be writing fables about this performance in 10 years (other than maybe Thor Nystrom), but the second-year signal-caller made a handful of truly impressive throws in just his third-career start.

Of course, averaging 5.7 yards per attempt against this injury-riddled Lions secondary isn't exactly an impressive feat (read: it's not good); just realize McCarthy at least flashed the ability to function as a decent NFL QB–which is quite the improvement from some of the discourse going around following his mostly disastrous first eight quarters to the season.

Perhaps most intriguing for fantasy purposes: McCarthy has continued to show a penchant for running the damn ball. Overall, he's posted 2-25-1, 5-25-0, and 9-12-1 rushing lines, emerging as a quality threat to pick up yards as a scrambler when needed.

As discussed on the Sunday night recap edition of THE Fantasy Life Show, I came away more optimistic about the Vikings passing game moving forward, while Dwain "The Rock" McFarland did not. So yeah: Choose your fighter!

The good news either way: McCarthy and company have back-to-back quality on-paper matchups against the Ravens (24th in EPA allowed per dropback) and Bears (22nd) on deck. Nobody has a better rest-of-season schedule at the position. Here's to hoping better counting numbers are accordingly ahead for all parties involved; for now McCarthy (my QB18) is still more of a superflex/bye week filler option than anything fantasy managers should be getting too excited about.

Who was *this* close to having a much bigger Week 9?

I've been tracking when players get tackled at the one-yard line and did NOT score on the same drive every week for roughly the last five years or so. I truly can't recall a slate of games featuring this many occurrences.

Players tackled at the one-yard line and did NOT score on the same drive:

• Jaguars RB Travis Etienne (x5 over the course of 3 different drives)
• Bills RB James Cook (x2)
• Titans RB Tony Pollard (x2, same drive)
• Cardinals RB Bam Knight (x2, same drive)
• Colts RB Jonathan Taylor
• Falcons RB Bijan Robinson
• Ravens RB Derrick Henry
• Raiders RB Ashton Jeanty
• Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker
• Chiefs RB Kareem Hunt
• Bears RB Kyle Monangai
• Texans RB Nick Chubb
• Rams WR Puka Nacua
• Chiefs WR Hollywood Brown
• Titans WR Chimere Dike
• Raiders TE Brock Bowers (that's right, he almost had 4 TDs!)
• Steelers TE Darnell Washington
• Steelers QB Aaron Rodgers
• Texans FB British Brooks (x2, same drive)

That's right: ETN could have realistically had three TDs on Sunday. Nobody has been tackled at the one-yard line on five separate occasions in one game since 2017!

That said: Don't let Etienne's unfortunate lack of success around the goal line distract from the fact that the Jaguars RB1 looked damn good coming out of the team's Week 8 bye:

• Etienne had 84 rushing yards … but 88 rushing yards AFTER contact. Think about that.
• The sixth-year veteran was credited with forcing 11 missed tackles on Sunday–tied for the third-best single-game mark of 2025. Only Bijan Robinson has topped it!
• Enough numbers? Fair. Watch the film!

Many fantasy football nerds and virgins were hoping rookie Bhayshul Tuten would experience a post-bye rookie bump of sorts, but that simply wasn't the case. Don't get it twisted: Tuten maintains sky-high handcuff upside and remains an intriguing size/speed specimen, but I'd be VERY surprised at this point of a backfield takeover ever happening without an injury.

9. One cool fact from every game that I find interesting for one reason or another

… yeah!

• Broncos-Raiders: Troy Franklin (64) has more targets than Courtland Sutton (62) this season.
• Colts-Falcons: Drake London has finished as THE PPR WR1 in three of his 10 games with Michael Penix.
• Jets-Browns: Justin Fields is the only QB with 100+ pass attempts and *zero* interceptions this season.
• Panthers-Saints: Rico Dowdle is third in the NFL in rushing yards and rushing yards per game behind only Jonathan Taylor and James Cook.
• Buccaneers-Patriots: Only Cam Ward (29.7%) has taken a sack more often on his pressured dropbacks than Drake Maye (27.4%).
• Vikings-Ravens: For his career, Derrick Henry has averaged 4.3 yards per carry in September, 4.8 in October, 4.9 in November, 5.2 in December, and 5.4 in January.
• Dolphins-Bills: Tua Tagovailoa is 1-9 in 10 career matchups against the Bills with the only win coming in a 21-19 nailbiter back in Week 3, 2022 that featured the Dolphins out-gained by nearly 300 total yards.
• Bears-Giants: Dart has racked up five rushing TDs since taking over as the Giants starting QB in Week 4–a mark only surpassed by Jonathan Taylor and Josh Jacobs!
• Texans-Jaguars: Nico Collins has posted 7-104-1, 12-151-1, 8-119-0, and 8-104-1 receiving lines in his last four games against the Jaguars.
• Seahawks-Cardinals: This season Trey McBride has averaged 12.5 PPR points per game with Kyler Murray under center … and 22.4 with Jacoby Brissett.
• Commanders-Lions: Washington has allowed 44, 28, and 38 points during the last three weeks–more than any team other than the Bengals.
• 49ers-Rams: Davante Adams has 16 end-zone targets this season. George Pickens has 14. Nobody else is in double digits.
• Chargers-Steelers: Justin Herbert's 305 rushing yards are *one* less than his career-high total in 2024.
• Packers-Eagles: Josh Jacobs has scored 27 touchdowns in 26 games with the Packers over the past two seasons.

10. Three Bold Calls for Week 10

And I'm talking BOLD. No predicting Jonathan Taylor to have a big game, or Jaxon Smith-Njigba to have 100 yards: We're dumpster diving here in the pursuit of glory, but I swear there's legit reasoning to the madness (usually in the form of my weekly mismatch manifesto charts).

1. Zay Flowers finally booms, hangs 8-123-1 on the Vikings. The man couldn't be more overdue for a TD (54 straight targets without a receiving score), and the return of Lamar Jackson certainly has this passing attack looking dangerous once again. This Brian Flores-led defense has started to crack, surrendering some big-time performances to DeVonta Smith (9-183-1), AJ Brown (4-121-2), Amon-Ra St. Brown (9-97-0), Sam LaPorta (6-97-1), Ladd McConkey (6-88-1), Oronde Gadsden (5-77-1), and Jameson Williams (4-66-1) over the last three weeks alone!

2. Kyle Monangai stays hot, posts top-five finish without D'Andre Swift OR top-24 with. The rookie's usage was already trending up even before Swift got hurt. Obviously the continued absence of Swift could result in another BOOM for Monangai, but don't discount this Bears rush offense (3rd in EPA per rush since returning from their Week 5 bye!) being good enough to produce *two* high-end performances against the Giants' league-worst defense in EPA allowed per rush.

3. Khalil Shakir torches the Dolphins for 8-110-1. Shakir's last four matchups with the Dolphins have produced 6-106-0, 5-54-0, 6-50-0, and 4-45-1 receiving lines. Their banged-up/bad secondary hasn't had many answers all season long; I like Shakir's chances of making the most out of his high-percentage low-aDOT targets and racking up YAC against the league's third-worst defense in terms of total missed tackles this season.

Last week: Caleb Williams didn't quite throw for 300 yards, but he had 355 total yards and four TDs so we'll call it a win! … Kyren Williams (RB8) easily posted top-24 numbers, but Blake Corum (RB33) did not. … Josh Downs was good (6-57-1), but not quite as good as my 8-103-1 prediction. … As always: We'll watch the film and get better.

Thank you all for reading and best of luck in Week 10 and beyond!