Fantasy Football Roundtable: Second-Year QBs, Upside Hunting at WR, and More
Mark Drumheller, Geoff Ulrich, and Sam Wallace break down which second-year QB is the best bargain, upside at WR, and more.
Fantasy Football friends, we are in the midst of summer with NFL training camps beginning. Our thirst for NFL football will be quenched soon enough. Only six more weekends stand between us and multiple televisions immersing us in all of the Week 1 action (and only two before we have a full slate of preseason games).
Here at Fantasy Life, we are in full preparation mode, getting you ready to tactically craft your strategy to bring home the gold this season. I have summoned two of our experts, Geoff Ulrich and Sam Wallace, to tackle some fun, but also very pressing questions for this upcoming season.
Which Year 2 QB Offers The Most Value Relative To Their ADP?
Mark: I can wholeheartedly understand why Bears fans want to pump the brakes on expectations after years of disappointment. Luckily, I don’t share the same mental restraints when it comes to the Windy City’s new QB-HC combo.
Anyone who has witnessed Jared Goff’s transformation under Ben Johnson has to be salivating at Caleb Williams' potential. Goff went from being a castaway in Los Angeles to a guy who threw for more yards last season than every QB not named Joe Burrow.
His 4,629-yard, 37-touchdown output landed him just outside the top five of fantasy QBs in PPR leagues. Imagine what Goff’s season would have looked like if he had wheels?
We might find out sooner rather than later.
Williams rushed for 489 yards in his rookie season and can easily surpass that total in an offense built around his strengths. A few designed runs in the red zone would have the corners of fantasy managers’ mouths curling up like the Grinch.
When projecting Williams’ ascension, in comparison with his sophomore peers, his value comes from his high floor as much as his ceiling. The Ben Johnson bump has already pushed Williams into the top 10 of Fantasy Life’s consensus rankings.
In terms of ADP, I still contend there is value when sizing up the three QBs going off the board before him: Bo Nix, Kyler Murray, and Baker Mayfield. Especially considering that the Tampa Bay offense will likely be operating without All-Pro OT Tristan Wirfs to start the season.
Ultimately, it’s exciting in itself to realize five second-year QBs are set to have a major impact. Jayden Daniels’ phenomenal rookie season makes it hard to squeeze more value out of his ADP. I wouldn’t be shocked if any of the remaining four outperformed their current position, but it’s Caleb Williams that feels like the safest bet to me.
Geoff: I’m just going to answer this question by way of process of elimination. I love Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix this season, but their upside is already baked into their ADP.
Caleb Williams is already going around QB12 on Underdog, and so hopes of a bounceback second season are also already baked in.
That leaves us with Drake Maye, whose valuation is also climbing and will be on a Mike Vrabel-led team with limited high-end receivers (pass), J.J. McCarthy, and Michael Penix.
McCarthy is finally starting to get some steam and is now going ahead of Herbert, Love, and Lawrence on Underdog. I like his potential a lot, but I’m not sure we can use the word undervalued anymore.
For me, the answer to this question is Penix. Penix’s first three games were nothing to write home about, but therein lies the bargain, as there is a clear undecidedness in the marketplace about his talents/upside. Going around QB20-22, he’s still well below Williams, Maye, and McCarthy, ADP-wise, and easy to pick up late in best ball if you drafted Drake London early, or as part of a late-round QB strategy in redrafts.
Penix is far from a lock to break out, but his situation is a plus and makes him worthy of betting on. Atlanta has a true WR1 in Drake London (whom Penix targeted on 40% of his throws), who is capable of winning without much separation, and a poor defense that is projected to be below average again this season and may push Penix towards the top of attempts and yards at his position this year.
Sam: I'll admit, this feels like cheating because he sat for the entirety of his rookie year, but J.J. McCarthy being ranked as the QB16 on Underdog feels like a swing I am more than willing to take. We already know how ready-made the Minnesota Vikings offense is for any QB. Just look at what Sam Darnold did last season with Kevin O'Connell at the helm. McCarthy wasn't asked to do a whole lot of heavy lifting at Michigan, and he'll have the keys to a pretty sweet ride in Minnesota this season.
I'm not saying McCarthy is a lock to finish as a top-12 QB, but with weapons like Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson, and Aaron Jones, coupled with at least nine guaranteed games in a dome, I'm happy snagged McCarthy at his current price point.
Which WR Outside Of The Top 10 In ADP Has Top-Five Upside At The Position?
Geoff: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR19, Underdog)
I’ll happily take a bigger swing and go with Jaxon Smith-Njigba in this spot. Currently, he’s drifted to WR19 on Underdog, and my question is simply, why?
12th in targets last season and WR9 in PPR scoring, the market still seems to want to price in regression for him in Year 3, despite Tyler Lockett (74 targets) and DK Metcalf (104 targets) both leaving town. Veterans Cooper Kupp and Marquez Valdes-Scantling hardly deserve or are capable of carving out big roles at this point in their careers, which should free up JSN for a monster target share.
There are, of course, legitimate Sam Darnold concerns, but new OC Klint Kubiak has recently helped two pocket-passing QBs in Brock Purdy and Kirk Cousins to career seasons.
Overall, I see a very condensed passing game forming in Seattle, with JSN being the focal point. I also expect the Seahawks to be a middle-of-the-road team, involved in a lot of close games, and potentially finishing with a much higher pass rate than people are projecting.
It’s a ripe spot for JSN to break out and reward those who are willing to go against his current market valuation.
Sam: Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR15, Underdog)
Despite coming off the board as the WR15 on Underdog, I'll peg Marvin Harrison Jr. as the most likely candidate to vault into the top five. While scouring the list of potential players, I tried to find the perfect blend of a strong offensive environment with a capable QB, inherent talent to truly command the volume needed to crack the top-five, and a narrow distribution of offensive targets.
Harrison fits all of those very well. Kyler Murray is more than capable of supporting a high-end fantasy asset, and only TE Trey McBride stands in the way of Harrison amassing a truly large volume of targets. Don't be surprised if 50%+ of the targets go towards both of those players.
He had a disappointing rookie season by most standards, but he looks poised to remind everyone why he was such a tantalizing prospect coming into the league.
Mark: Rashee Rice (WR13, Underdog)
Okay, who wants to gamble? If I can get more stock in Rashee Rice, I will make room for all of it.
Yes, there are some very serious red flags with the third-year receiver. Most notably, a pending multi-game suspension for pleading guilty to two third-degree felony charges. That being said, I have never been one to veer away from risk.
Reports surfaced Thursday that the Chiefs’ brass are optimistically bracing themselves for a two-to-four-week suspension. Assuming the high end (four games), Rice would have to average 17+ fantasy points throughout the remaining thirteen games to get into top-five range (Drake London finished as the fifth-highest-scoring WR in 0.5 PPR leagues in 2024 with 230.8 points).
Extremely lofty? yes. Doable with Patrick Mahomes feeding you every Sunday? That’s going to be another yes from me.
The suspension will remain the caveat. A more lengthy one will quickly eliminate Rice from the top-five conversation. Although he’s still a player I would want in my lineup come playoff time.
After watching Travis Kelce’s role diminish when it mattered most in 2024 (10 combined targets in the AFC Championship and Super Bowl), it’s clear the Chiefs offense is in the midst of a transformation heading into 2025. And here’s why I am not worried about Xavier Worthy lurking.
Rice commanded an average of 9.67 targets per game in the three full games he played last season. As our resident expert (and Host of the Fantasy Life Show), Ian Hartitz astutely pointed out in his Chiefs’ team preview, Rice absolutely ate for fantasy managers by converting those targets into an eye-popping 21.6 PPR points per game (or 17.6 in 0.5 PPR).
If that doesn’t get the blood pumping about his potential, you must hate winning. Sprinkle in a very motivated Patrick Mahomes, and I am all-in on Rashee Rice to rocket himself into fantasy superstardom.
In dynasty formats, which offense do you see as the most valuable “buy-low” target prior to the preseason?
Sam: Carolina Panthers
I've been an adamant supporter of Bryce Young ever since the end of his disastrous rookie season. I truly felt the difference between him and C.J. Stroud was not as big as we saw back in 2023. That played out in 2024 when we saw Stroud take a big step back and Young find himself over the final 10 games of the season.
Heading into 2025, I've been on Young as the ideal QB2 target in dynasty superflex startup drafts, and I believe he'll carry his strong end-of-season finish from last year into this fall. Young is currently valued as the QB20 by the masses, which means he's pretty cheap in every format. Toss in star rookie Tetairoa McMillan, who carries a value of WR16, and this offense is one that I want to be a part of sooner rather than later.
I'll be honest, I'm not sure how to feel about tying myself so closely to the Carolina Panthers and their young players, but I'm on the ride now, so let's make the most of it.
Mark: Houston Texans
First off, I want to give credit where credit is due. Sam really nailed this one with the Carolina Panthers. HC Dave Canales survived a tumultuous first season, and it appears Bryce Young is going to be a better quarterback because of it. Investing serious draft equity with the 8th overall pick for Tetairoa McMillan speaks volumes about Carolina’s commitment to the development of their young quarterback. That’s certainly an encouraging sign for dynasty managers.
Let’s shift gears to my favorite “buy-low” team: the Houston Texans.
You don’t have to be a big “buy the dip” guy to see that Stroud is being undervalued. After throwing for over 4,000 yards and 23 TDs as a rookie, one of the most coveted fantasy quarterbacks last summer finds himself sitting in the QB20 range entering this year. Even in dynasty formats, Stroud managed to sink outside of the top 10 of the rankings.
The talent is obviously still there. If Houston’s offseason overhaul of its offensive line (and DeMeco Ryan’s coaching staff) produces minor improvements, the Texans offense can easily put up gaudy numbers with Stroud under center.
That’s a very big “IF”, but the way I see it, gutting a unit that surrendered the third-highest pressure rate in the NFL sounds like a step in the right direction.
The Texans open the season with a few favorable defenses in the Rams, Bucs, Jaguars, and Titans. I suspect the C.J. Stroud-Nico Collins (WR6) connection spends September shredding opposing secondaries, carving a path for second-round pick Jayden Higgins to make himself a hot name in dynasty circles.
Geoff: Green Bay Packers
2024 was such a strange season for Green Bay from a fantasy perspective. Everyone underperformed outside of Josh Jacobs, who ended the season RB6 in full PPR. Jordan Love fell from QB5 in 2023 to QB17 in 2024, and Jayden Reed, who was their top-ranked WR for fantasy again in 2024, took a fairly decent step back.
Still, this unit remains full of talented options. Tucker Kraft emerged as a legit starting TE for fantasy, ending the season as TE7, and led all TEs in yards after the catch per reception (9.1). Kraft is a player I’m interested in investing in before the year begins, but there are other solid names to target as well.
WR Matthew Golden was taken in the first round by Green Bay, and his outside speed could help ignite Jordan Love’s upside again. The market for Love has gone ice cold compared to this time last season, and, for dynasty purposes, it’s hard to argue that there are better risk-reward targets to acquire in a trade for a QB2 at his current valuation. Then you have other solid talents at WR, like aforementioned Reed, Christian Watson (IR; knee), and the ever-polarizing Dontayvion Wicks, any of whom could emerge and become a legitimate top-20 WR this season—if things break their way.
Even if you’re not a huge fan, this is a great time to go bargain hunting with Packers players, as any increase in pass rate or explosiveness could see multiple names exceed their current valuations and make them much more valuable assets for dynasty purposes by this time next season.
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