Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer Advice: Michael Pittman Is A Buy-Low Ahead Of Week 5

Sometimes, when you make a fantasy football trade offer makes all the difference.

I’ll use an extreme example, but think about a brand-new car. Not yours, somebody else’s. You wouldn’t offer to buy it from them as soon as they drive it off the lot. I mean, you could try. But I’m assuming they wanted it for a reason. In theory, you’d have to wait until their needs shift. Then, there’s a mutual desire for a conversation. We’ve hit that point in the fantasy season.

The draft was a month ago (or longer for some). We have a good idea of who these teams are and what to expect. Plus, we have the added complexity of bye weeks to consider. With the mounting pressure to keep up with our leagues, let’s go through some trade options as we head into Week 5.

Analyzing Week 5 Trade Advice

I always start with who I’d want to acquire in a trade. Of course, Bijan Robinson or Puka Nacua would be excellent additions to any roster. But you’d have to mortgage most of your roster to get them. In essence, there’s a balancing act we have to perform between current performances and long-term outlooks. Jonathan has a list for you each week with some solid names. However, after last week, I’ve got a few of my own.

Buy Lows

Michael Pittman Jr. – 10-target game in Week 4 was a product of game script; otherwise averaging 6.3 targets per game on an offense creating touches for their rookie TE.
DK Metcalf – even without Calvin Austin in for the whole game, only got to a 23.0% target share; on bye in Week 5.
Kyle Pitts – benefited from Darnell Mooney’s absence; barely edged out Bijan Robinson in terms of receiving usage (both got five targets, Pitts had more air yards).

Admittedly, the term ‘buy low’ seems off here. You’d usually find players here with less production, but most fantasy managers are (and should be) looking for help on their rosters. Not bench stashes. So, yes, any box score scout can glance at their stat line and see they all scored TDs. However, as my notes indicate, you can poke holes in the results as you toss around trade options with other managers. Also, it doesn’t mean they’re not worth trying to get onto your squad.

Let’s take Michael Pittman, for instance.

Yes, you could point to Daniel Jones, Jonathan Taylor and Tyler Warren getting all the hype as reasons to trade him away. But Pittman clears all of the Colts’ pass-game options in first-read target rate (clean pocket, average time to throw less than 2.5 seconds). He has 17 targets when Jones works in rhythm. The next closest WR is Josh Downs at nine looks. Plus, three of the next four defenses for the Indianapolis have either weak pass-rushing units or poor secondaries (Raiders, Cardinals, Titans). While Pittman might look like ‘just a guy,’ HC Shane Steichen has designed the offense around Pittman being Jones’ guy.

Buy Highs

Drake London – second game with ten or more targets, but Week 4 was his highest rate of targets from the slot (46.2%)
George Pickens – target share jumped to 28.9% in his first game without CeeDee Lamb; had double the looks when Dak Prescott was under pressure
Woody Marks – handled 52.0% of the rushing attempts, including 90.0% of the long-down-and-distance carries; also earned a 19.0% target share

‘Buy Highs’ are tough to pry away after big performances, but there’s always a case you can make. Like, George Pickens. I’m sure every fantasy manager was waiting for Pickens’ 33.4-point outing since drafting him. But his 3.3% slot rate and 14.6-air-yard aDOT add a whiff of flukiness to his night. Of course, having Dak Prescott, one of the most aggressive QBs in the league, throwing you the ball elevates a receiver archetype like Pickens’. So if you’re dealing with a trade partner who values consistency, there’s a route to getting a high-end WR2 on your roster instead of theirs.

Finding the Right Fantasy Football Trade Value

OK, so let’s do a quick review.

We’ve got the ‘who’ we want to trade for outlined. I’ve given some notes on ‘what’ points to use during the deal. So, let’s bring it all together and discuss ‘how’ to make it happen.

Our Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer combines our rankings, projections, and utilization data to measure your team’s outlook, should you click accept. However, as I mentioned in the intro, timing can be everything. The tool uses the most up-to-date numbers to assess the players, but we’ve got all of the subjective information that could swing a negotiation the other way. Besides, even if we receive a lopsided offer, there are ways to find a reasonable counteroffer and finalize a deal.

Trade 1

Give: James Cook
Receive: Derrick Henry, DK Metcalf

I would have laughed at this trade before the season started. Our only concern regarding Derrick Henry was his age. There was no way James Cook could mount another 18-TD campaign. Well, how the turntables. But let’s see how the analyzer views it.

Honestly, I’m not surprised. I don’t agree, but the results don’t shock me. Remember, the ‘Trade win %’ metric feeds off the latest set of opportunity and production stats. When you look at the rest-of-season projections, you can almost see the potential lag in how we’ll be valuing Henry over even just the next few weeks.

Lamar Jackson may miss multiple weeks. Baltimore’s defense is stacking up injuries as fast as their opponents are picking up yards against them. However, specific to the Ravens’ RB1, the shift in game script has had an impact on his playing time.

Week 1 (one-point L): 56.0% (Snaps), 23.0% (Route Rate)
Week 2 (24-point W): 58.0%, 39.0%
Week 3 (eight-point L): 52.0%, 26.0%
Week 4 (17-point L): 40.0%, 18.0%

Meanwhile, James Cook has a healthy QB, a good defense, and (at worst) a neutral schedule moving forward. In other words, if I had Cook, I’d be asking for more than what’s on the block.

Trade 2

Give: Garrett Wilson
Receive: Keenan Allen, Woody Marks

My intrusive thought here is that I’d look at this trade and then forget about it. Is it fair and reasonable? Well, yes.

However, again, let’s go back to the car analogy. I’ve had Garrett Wilson for a month. In that time, he’s been a top-10 WR in three of four weeks, while averaging more targets per game than all but two other WRs. I kind of like this ride!

Sure, Woody Marks looks promising. He’s one of Kendall’s top waiver adds for the week. He out-snapped, out-carried, out-targeted, and out-everything’d Nick Chubb. But I’ll throw cold water on the situation regarding this trade. It was one game with Marks as the lead back. And it came against the Titans’ defense (allowing the fourth-most PPR PPG to RBs). Once more, this would be a fine starting point for a trade. However, I value Wilson a bit more and would try to find a slight step up in a two-for-one scenario.

Like I said, I’m not looking for anything exorbitant. If anything, I’m taking on some risk, given J.K. Dobbins’ lack of availability over the last couple of years. Regardless, gauging how a player’s value can change with their situation will make trading and ultimately your roster better over the long run.