Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer Advice: Buy Low on Jakobi Meyers For Week 12
Fantasy

Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer Advice: Buy Low on Jakobi Meyers For Week 12

Chris Allen breaks down the best fantasy football trade targets for Week 12.

I’ve given it some thought. The most painful social media post I’ve seen this season came from Drew Garrison on Monday after the Steelers slammed the door shut on the Bengals’ hopes for a playoff spot.

“Katie Blackburn feels so vindicated now that Trey [Hendrickson] is banged up.”

There are levels (of pain) to the sentiment. However, the biggest injustice is that Cincinnati’s roster management approach isn’t supposed to “work.” Pulling whatever levers to keep your team competitive should be the prime directive in real and fantasy football. Waiting weeks for an outcome downplays the notion that there were other solutions or paths to mitigate the result. And with most fantasy leagues coming up on their trade deadline, I’d bet on the teams making moves to improve their roster rather than those that stay silent.

Advice On Potential Fantasy Football Trade Targets For Week 12

As I’ve often said, dealing for a player is a mix of art and science. The list of guys we’d want on our team is likely endless. However, we need the capital to acquire them. Plus, the price should keep the rest of our team capable of making a title run. In other words, there’s a balance required. However, there are a few guys you could reasonably land in a trade.

Buy Lows

  • Jakobi Meyers – up to full-time status in his second game with Jacksonville; route rate up to 83% and led the team with a 30% target rate.
  • Pat Bryant – over 60% of the routes in three straight weeks, while Marvin Mims has run fewer routes (31% in Week 11) and no targets against the Chiefs; Bryant is working as the clear WR3 with a downfield element to his game (19.3 and 11.5-yard aDOT).
  • Zay Flowers - +20% target rate in every game since the bye; favorable schedule heading into the playoffs.

On the one hand, the notion that receivers need time to establish a rapport with their QB makes sense to me. Some routes require timing and precision from both parties involved. But on the flipside, some guys just understand each other

Meyers’ 30% target rate is the highest single-game mark of any Jaguars’ WR this season. But it wasn’t just the volume; his route variety caught my eye, too. HC Liam Coen had Meyers in the slot (31.8% slot snap rate), motioned him across the formation, and had him running in and out-breaking routes. I’m still skeptical about Trevor Lawrence, but he and Meyers will face the Cardinals’, Titans’, Colts’ and Jets’ secondaries over the next month. Even with Brian Thomas Jr. and Brenton Strange set to return, Meyers’ instant ability to take the lead in the offense is worth adding to your squad.

Buy Highs

  • Travis Etienne – maintained starter role out of the bye (53% rushing share, 14% target rate); backup injured in Week 11, securing a larger role for Etienne.
  • Emanuel Wilson – set to take on larger role with Josh Jacobs’ injury; had earned opportunities in every fantasy-relevant context as the RB2 (e.g., short-yardage, third-fourth down, goal-line, etc.), indicating he can take on the RB1 workload with Jacobs out.
  • Kenneth Walker – multiple short-yardage and goal-line touches coming out of Seattle’s bye.

I’m ready to be hurt again by Kenneth Walker. To be clear, I’m not predicting that he’ll dust Zach Charbonnet and reclaim his (rightful) spot as the RB1 in Seattle. However, at least OC Klint Kubiak is starting to defer to the veteran RB in more fantasy-relevant situations.

Walker’s short-yardage and goal-line snaps and touches are up over the three games since their Week 8 bye. Sunday was his first goal-line rushing score since Week 3. But he had taken three similar touches over the previous two weeks. At the same time, his efficiency as an every-down runner is still there (53.7% rushing success rate). So, yes, it’s still a committee in Seattle. But let’s say you have Bijan Robinson on your roster and staring down Kirk Cousins retaking the field for the Falcons. I’d rather have Walker.

Finding The Right Fantasy Football Trade Value

So, let’s think this through. We’ve gone from the players we’d “really want” to the guys that would be “nice to have.” OK, that’s fine. At least there’s some idea of who we can feasibly negotiate for in a deal. Now, there’s the “what we’re willing to part with” side of the equation. Think about it like this.

What do you think it’d take to pry Tee Higgins off another manager’s roster?

Outside of your offspring, the cost would be exorbitant. Many of your players would exodus from your roster so you could get one (maybe another) in return. That’s the balancing act I was referring to earlier. And it’s not always a straightforward evaluation process. However, our Trade Analyzer tool can at least start the conversation by using our Utilization metrics and rest-of-season rankings to score both sides. And after pulling a couple of recent deals from the market, we can see what it’d take to keep our squads ready for a playoff run.

Trade 1

I tend to lean on stats and data trends to guide my decisions, but my knee-jerk reaction to this trade would be “sign me up.” Of course, this comes after a week where Ollie Gordon snuck in a goal-line TD. And the Dolphins are on bye this week. So you’d be getting two starting pieces while moving off of a (temporary) bench player. Again, qualitatively, I’d send out this offer, and the analyzer agrees with the approach, too.

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However, TreVeyon Henderson is something of a wild card in all of this. Trying to gauge his ROS value is part of why the result is only a “Slight Lean.” As of right now, our rankers have him as an RB2 to close out the year.

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Per our Utilization game logs, the Patriots’ rookie rusher has been the beneficiary of yet another injury to the New England backfield. Henderson’s 83% rushing share against the Jets is a single-game high mark not just for him, but for any of the rushers on his team. However, his down-to-down efficiency is still a work in progress.

Even while he was scoring three TDs in primetime, his 3.3 YPC was fifth-worst out of the 13 RBs to go up against the Jets. And Drake Maye still averaged over eight yards to the sticks in obvious passing situations. I’m not saying HC Mike Vrabel will relegate Henderson to the meager role he had earlier in the season. But he’ll need to get more bang for the buck on the volume he does get once Rhamondre Stevenson returns to the lineup.

Trade 2

I’ve mentioned this concept before, but player names have an innate currency to them. You can almost sense their “street value” by the reaction you get from mentioning them to someone else. And I’ll say this. I frowned and shook my head when I saw Brian Thomas Jr. as part of the deal.

You can show me the Jaguars’ upcoming schedule and remind me that it’s favorable (ARI, TEN, IND x2, NYJ and DEN). But then I’d show you the “highlights” of the Lawrence-Thomas connection. Then there’s Travis Hunter’s ascension, Parker Washington usurping Thomas, and now Jakobi Meyers instantly getting on the same page as Trevor Lawrence to consider. Anyway, he’s just one part of the offer, but without looking at the analyzer, I’d want more coming back my way.

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Again, without using numbers, I’d think about the deal from this standpoint. Aaron Jones relegated Jordan Mason to a third of the snaps since his return. Jaylen Waddle is Miami’s unquestioned WR1. Quinshon Judkins is averaging the third-most carries per game of any RB. I can’t estimate the same amount of touches coming back my way.

I already talked through my disdain for Thomas, and D’Ande Swift is in a 55-44 split with Kyle Monangai. I’m losing volume here. So, I did some digging to find a suitable WR replacement.

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MNF aside, George Pickens can at least access a ceiling. Someone like the Cowboys’ WR2 or DeVonta Smith would pique more interest, given their track records through Week 11. I’d move up from Swift to a “Kenneth-Walker-like” RB with the same profile (e.g., touches make them a weekly top-24 option, profile or usage can vault them into the top 10), too. Regardless, even a qualitative assessment can reveal the flaws in an offer. And it doesn’t mean you have to reject. Instead, find a viable counter and keep the lines of communication open to churn your roster.

Players Mentioned in this Article

  1. Jakobi Meyers
    JakobiMeyers
    WRJACJAC
    PPG
    7.26
  2. Brian Thomas
    BrianThomas
    WRJACJAC
    PPG
    6.45
  3. Trevor Lawrence
    TrevorLawrence
    QBJACJAC
    PPG
    14.78
  4. Kenneth Walker
    KennethWalker
    RBSEASEA
    PPG
    10.58
    Proj
    16.67