Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer: Buy Low on Ladd McConkey Ahead of Week 4
Chris Allen analyzes some fantasy football trade targets to buy high or low on and what it would take to get a deal across the finish line ahead of Week 4.
I understand it now.
Giving advice is easy when you’re not involved. As an analyst, I get to be logical and objective when evaluating a trade. The only data points I have (need?) are the pertinent metrics and whatever film I can access. Being able to zoom out can help anyone see the right path. But when it comes down to it, the reality of the situation can be all that matters.
Context can swing any negotiation, as player value differs between managers. It doesn’t matter where a tool or article points you to, as long as the pieces meet everyone’s needs. However, even without having skin in the game, let’s incorporate what we’ve learned through Week 3 to find some trade targets and frameworks you can mold into your own leagues with some assistance from our fantasy football trade analyzer.
Analyzing Potential Trade Targets Before Week 4
Remember, we’re just three weeks into the season. The market is going to fluctuate as each peak and valley resets whatever baseline we set over the offseason. This list isn’t only to highlight players, but also their situations and how we can leverage them to improve our team. Jonathan continues to find the best players to highlight when looking to deal your way into a better team. But I’ve got a few extras to consider.
Buy Lows
- Ladd McConkey – no touchdowns; receding target share across all three games (26.5%, 18.5%, and 15.2%); the lone Chargers’ receiver without a top-24 finish in half-point-PPR leagues.
- RJ Harvey – down to two totes in Week 3; unable to establish himself as the two-minute option; no touches at or around the goal line.
- Tyjae Spears – yet to play a snap in 2025; returning to a team with just three offensive touchdowns scored while averaging the second-fewest yards per game.
Each case looks bleak, but that’s where the buying opportunity exists. And, of course, here’s where context comes into play. Let’s say you’re undefeated or even with a 2-1 record, but your points scored indicate you’ve got one of the strongest rosters. Churning your squad for more talent you don’t even have to start is a luxury. However, there must be some upside to the acquisition.
For instance, sure, McConkey has been a disappointment with just 10.4 PPR PPG to go with his second- or third-round ADP. But we didn’t expect 33-year-old Keenan Allen to find the fountain of youth or Quentin Johnston to find a working set of hands. Anyway, McConkey tying Johnston in targets when Justin Herbert has a clean pocket, and the second-year receiver’s on-field production (second-most first downs), points to better results for McConkey but without the same ceiling when he was the clear WR1.
Harvey’s lack of a rushing role is a concern, but he did pop up for a 14.0% target share in Week 3. Meanwhile, Tyler Badie’s routes and looks from Bo Nix cratered. While the rookie still has to battle with the veteran for carries, a consolidation of the pass-game usage, combined with more RB work later in the season, is just the scenario worth making a play on Harvey sooner rather than later.
Tony Pollard has had all of the opportunities in Tennessee with none of the production to go with them. Out of the rushers with 50.0% or more of the RB carries, the Titans’ RB1 has bottom-10 marks in forced missed tackle rate and adjusted yards after contact per attempt. He’s also yet to record an explosive play and has been inconsistent in terms of making an impact as a receiver. Spears can instantly challenge Pollard for obvious pass-down work and other rushing opportunities with his speed. While the offense has been tough to watch, the focus should be on the opportunities we can stash on our bench for later in the season.
Buy Highs
- Rome Odunze – three consecutive weeks with a +25.0% target share; fourth in UR Score among all WRs; only Chicago WR with an end-zone target in all three games
- Tyreek Hill – target share has increased from 20.0% to 30.0% since Week 1; garnered 78.0% of the team’s air yards in Week 3
- Daniel Jones – the QB4 through three weeks; one of 11 QBs with a designed rushing rate above 10.0%; first in passing success rate and second in EPA per dropback
Sunday might’ve been the first yellow flag for Rome Odunze. In what was an easy matchup against the Cowboys’ secondary, the sophomore’s targets and air yards dropped. Meanwhile, Caleb Williams’ passing tree grew with Cole Kmet and Luther Burden adding to the Bears’ bonanza. As HC Ben Johnson starts to dig deeper into his bag, Odunze’s claim could be more of a technicality than actuality.
Investing in a 0-3 team doesn’t seem right, but at least two things are working in Tyreek Hill’s favor. First, his defense (which allows the seventh-most yards per game) continues to force the offense into passing-heavy scripts. Second, we’re seeing less of the other pass-game options. Jaylen Waddle was down to a 14.0% air yard share. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine didn’t even record a target. While Tua Tagovailoa still looks shaky behind the Dolphins’ line, betting on volume has its benefits.
It's possible that anyone with Daniel Jones on their roster is waiting for the rug pull. His ability to mitigate pressure with just two sacks is unprecedented. But the mobility and diverse pass catchers have been able to keep his production on a steady pace. Jones does have tougher opponents on the schedule (Week 4 – Rams, Week 7 – Chargers). If someone was looking to sell high, his upcoming matchups could be the tipping point.
Finding the Right Trade Value in Fantasy Football
The Trade Analyzer tool is back! With a new and improved user interface, too. Let’s give it a few spins using some trades stemming from this week’s action. However, I won’t focus on the deal itself. Instead, assuming each deal has a ‘winner,’ let’s make some assumptions and adjust the exchange to make things more reasonable for both sides.
Trade 1
Give: Tucker Kraft, Ladd McConkey, Bucky Irving
Receive: Kenneth Walker, Justin Jefferson
My eyes get wide anytime I see a first-round player in a deal. But I (think I) understand what’s happening here.
Justin Jefferson leads the Vikings in targets, but having either J.J. McCarthy or Carson Wentz as your QB lowers your ceiling. And Jordan Addison is returning. So, using the (lesser) but consistent production from Tucker Kraft, Ladd McConkey, and Bucky Irving to offset the peaks and valleys that come with Minnesota’s passing game has its merits. Accordingly, I’m not shocked that the trade grades this one out close to equal by the tool.
However, again leveraging the analyzer’s ability to pull in our projections and utilization metrics, we can see why the offeror is slightly overpaying for Jefferson and Walker.
Walker’s results to date have a whiff of volatility behind them as he only played 41.0% of the snaps in Week 1 and had the backfield to himself in Week 3. With Zach Charbonnet expected back in Week 4, we can’t expect similar usage, much less a two-touchdown result. Meanwhile, Bucky Irving continues to have a top-5 usage rate. So while Jefferson’s name might incur a tax, I’d argue Irving is the most valuable player in the deal.
Of course, this would start the negotiations, and the need for an extra player might become part of the discourse. But instead of offering another starter, I’d look to my bench for the final piece. Think in the WR3 range, like a Christian Kirk or Keon Coleman. Someone that the other manager could use, but isn’t necessarily a starter to offset the loss of an RB1.
Trade 2
Give: A.J. Brown
Receive: Jordan Mason
No. Absolutely not.
I understand the phrase ‘desperate times call for desperate measures,’ but Week 3 does not fall into that timeframe. Especially after we got the involvement from A.J. Brown that we projected for him throughout the offseason. Even the tool has concerns about going through with this deal.
But I get it. There’s a need for a starting RB. Still, let’s remember that Mason’s hold on the backfield has a shelf life. Aaron Jones will return. So, I’d move lesser starters and depth pieces to acquire Mason. Let’s try two WRs that could give some semblance of the same upside without the same impact on your roster.
Jauan Jenning’s injury complicates the situation, but you get the idea. If not Jennings, I’d like DJ Moore as another option to headline the two-for-one deal. The result still gives the other side WR talent with workloads that offer mid-tier floors. And while Jennings offers the highest ceiling, let’s see how the offense operates once George Kittle (and Brandon Aiyuk?) return to action. Either way, while the names prompt a response, honing in on the projected workloads and range of outcomes can help us properly frame a trade before sending away our most promising assets.
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